OR-Gravis: Tied race

[LimoLiberal]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Oregon_July_20_2018.pdf

Trump approval 43-53
Clinton +6 sample

Kate Brown (D) - 45
Knute Buehler (R) - 45

Trouble for Democrats.

[Zaybay]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Oregon_July_20_2018.pdf

Trump approval 43-53
Clinton +6 sample

Kate Brown (D) - 45
Knute Buehler (R) - 45

Trouble for Democrats.

Wow, Gravis says an obviously safe seat in an environment favoring the Democratic Party in a state that has never elected Republican governors since the 1970s is a tossup!?. Ill go get r/politics!

I was wondering who would post this poll, and of course, it was Limo. This is not a race to worry about, the sample is clearly wrong, and Oregon does have a history of close elections that never actually flip.

Burn the poll, along with the NJ one.

[ON Progressive]

I doubt Trump's net approval in Oregon is only 1 point worse than the nation.

[KingSweden]

I doubt Trump's net approval in Oregon is only 1 point worse than the nation.

[scutosaurus]

>g r a v i s

[Atlas Force]

I doubt Trump's net approval in Oregon is only 1 point worse than the nation.

[136or142]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Oregon_July_20_2018.pdf

Trump approval 43-53
Clinton +6 sample

Kate Brown (D) - 45
Knute Buehler (R) - 45

Trouble for Democrats.

Wow, Gravis says an obviously safe seat in an environment favoring the Democratic Party in a state that has never elected Republican governors since the 1970s is a tossup!?. Ill go get r/politics!

I was wondering who would post this poll, and of course, it was Limo. This is not a race to worry about, the sample is clearly wrong, and Oregon does have a history of close elections that never actually flip.

Burn the poll, along with the NJ one.

This governors race could be interesting.  I just had a discussion with a person on Twitter and apparently Knute Buehler is considered a moderate while Kate Brown is considered as a very liberal Democrat and I think there is no dispute that there is something of a Democratic Party governor fatigue in Oregon (as there is in Washington State.)

[Zaybay]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Oregon_July_20_2018.pdf

Trump approval 43-53
Clinton +6 sample

Kate Brown (D) - 45
Knute Buehler (R) - 45

Trouble for Democrats.

Wow, Gravis says an obviously safe seat in an environment favoring the Democratic Party in a state that has never elected Republican governors since the 1970s is a tossup!?. Ill go get r/politics!

I was wondering who would post this poll, and of course, it was Limo. This is not a race to worry about, the sample is clearly wrong, and Oregon does have a history of close elections that never actually flip.

Burn the poll, along with the NJ one.

This governors race could be interesting.  I just had a discussion with a person on Twitter and apparently Knute Buehler is considered a moderate while Kate Brown is considered as a very liberal Democrat and I think there is no dispute that there is something of a Democratic Party governor fatigue in Oregon (as there is in Washington State.)

Yeah, it will be close, most of Oregon's elections are close. But Kate is unlikely to lose.

[IceSpear]

Brown will win in this environment, but it wouldn't surprise me if it was (relatively) close. Every race there in the past two decades has been within single digits.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

>g r a v i s

[MT Treasurer]

So according to Gravis Montana is now more Democratic than Oregon? Anyway, I do think this will be another deceptively close race and yet another heartbreaker for the GOP. Probably Brown +3-5 or so.

[BudgieForce]

I'm getting kind of suspicious about Gravis. Polling blue states and showing unbelievable R-friendly numbers. I have to wonder if they're doing it on purpose. Whatever, nobody really trusts Gravis anyway.

[MT Treasurer]

I'm getting kind of suspicious about Gravis. Polling blue states and showing unbelievable R-friendly numbers. I have to wonder if they're doing it on purpose. Whatever, nobody really trusts Gravis anyway.

They’ve also shown unbelievably D-friendly numbers in many red states, though.

[BudgieForce]

I'm getting kind of suspicious about Gravis. Polling blue states and showing unbelievable R-friendly numbers. I have to wonder if they're doing it on purpose. Whatever, nobody really trusts Gravis anyway.

They’ve also shown unbelievably D-friendly numbers in many red states, though.

True. I was thinking out loud.

Safe assumption is Gravis just being a low quality pollster then.

[OSR stands with Israel]

The reason OR GOP hasn’t won since 1982 is simple


Almost everytime they have a chance to win that seat the right gets divided :


Happened in 1990,2002 and 2010.

In 2014 the Kitzhaber coverup wasn’t uncovered till 2 months after he won re-election , if it was uncovered then he loses

[MT Treasurer]

Btw, we all love to talk about how "inelastic" states like Maryland or Mississippi are, but I’d argue that the West Coast is probably the most inelastic and polarized region in the country. It’s definitely harder for a Republican to win a gubernatorial race in WA/OR/CA than in, say, MD or NJ.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Btw, we all love to talk about how "inelastic" states like Maryland or Mississippi are, but I’d argue that the West Coast is probably the most inelastic and polarized region in the country. It’s definitely harder for a Republican to win a gubernatorial race in WA/OR/CA than in, say, MD or NJ.

Reason why GOP hasn’t won OR in a long time is the right is never united during elections they have a chance to win in


Happened in 1990,2002 and 2010

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They haven't showed the ME polls yet, I suspect its a tight race as well.

[136or142]

Btw, we all love to talk about how "inelastic" states like Maryland or Mississippi are, but I’d argue that the West Coast is probably the most inelastic and polarized region in the country. It’s definitely harder for a Republican to win a gubernatorial race in WA/OR/CA than in, say, MD or NJ.

I think the Republican Mountain West and Southern states are much more inelastic.

[Ebsy]

Clinton, of course, won Oregon by 11 points.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Buehler is a really good candidate but I still think Brown wins.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Buehler is a really good candidate but I still think Brown wins.

We very well may have different candidates winning in red and blue states.

[South Dakota Democrat]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Oregon_July_20_2018.pdf

Trump approval 43-53
Clinton +6 sample

Kate Brown (D) - 45
Knute Buehler (R) - 45

Trouble for Democrats.

Trouble for Democrats...what are you, a broken record?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This race is very similar to the ME and RI race. Non polarizing GOP candidates running tied or slightly ahead of Dems.  I can see an upset in the making

[KingSweden]

Buehler is a really good candidate but I still think Brown wins.

He’s the best R statewide candidate in a long time