FL-SEN (Mason Dixon): Scott leads among South Florida Hispanics

[BudgieForce]

So if Scott is leading among Hispanics in Southern Florida, I guess Scott might win Miami or just do a strong performance there.

Scott isnt coming close to winning Miami.

Okay so maybe around 45 % for Scott in Miami.

Trump won 54% of Cubans in 2016 and still came nowhere near Hillary in Miami-Dade.

He actually lost Cubans 50-48 according to the Latino Decisions exit poll.

I was going by Pew.

[BudgieForce]

If I were a Democrat, I would be pretty terrified that Scott hasn't even tapped into his own fortune yet and he's still outspending Nelson exponentially.

Ehh, money is very useful, but its only up to a point. A candidate having 10 million vs one with 20 million will have no difference in voting numbers, compared to a candidate with 100,000 vs 1 million.
Other factors, such as name rec, and likability, are more influential than money, but money is usually needed to get these known to the public.
Rick Scott is really burning through money, but even if he tapped in to his personal account, it would start to have less and less of an impact. It matters more if Nelson has/uses money at this point, not Rick's accounts.

There was a recent investigation that concluded that more advertisement correlates with a higher vote share, though not with increased turnout. And more money = more advertisement.

Tell that to Hillary.

[Zaybay]

If I were a Democrat, I would be pretty terrified that Scott hasn't even tapped into his own fortune yet and he's still outspending Nelson exponentially.

Ehh, money is very useful, but its only up to a point. A candidate having 10 million vs one with 20 million will have no difference in voting numbers, compared to a candidate with 100,000 vs 1 million.
Other factors, such as name rec, and likability, are more influential than money, but money is usually needed to get these known to the public.
Rick Scott is really burning through money, but even if he tapped in to his personal account, it would start to have less and less of an impact. It matters more if Nelson has/uses money at this point, not Rick's accounts.

There was a recent investigation that concluded that more advertisement correlates with a higher vote share, though not with increased turnout. And more money = more advertisement.

But its up to a point. There is a ceiling to how much advertisement/money can effect a race. Look at 2016, where Hillary outspent Trump by a wide margin, but was not able to win. Or in PA-18, where Saccone outspent Lamb almost 10-1. Or with OC, being outspent 20-1.

[Pandaguineapig]

So if Scott is leading among Hispanics in Southern Florida, I guess Scott might win Miami or just do a strong performance there.

Scott isnt coming close to winning Miami.

Okay so maybe around 45 % for Scott in Miami.

Trump won 54% of Cubans in 2016 and still came nowhere near Hillary in Miami-Dade.

He actually lost Cubans 50-48 according to the Latino Decisions exit poll.

But he won them according to the real exit polls and the precinct data seems to match them better. Latino decisions is an advocacy group known for fudging numbers

[YE]

So if Scott is leading among Hispanics in Southern Florida, I guess Scott might win Miami or just do a strong performance there.

Scott isnt coming close to winning Miami.

Okay so maybe around 45 % for Scott in Miami.

Trump won 54% of Cubans in 2016 and still came nowhere near Hillary in Miami-Dade.

He actually lost Cubans 50-48 according to the Latino Decisions exit poll.

But he won them according to the real exit polls and the precinct data seems to match them better. Latino decisions is an advocacy group known for fudging numbers

To you any advocacy group for the liberals fudges numbers I'm sure.

[ON Progressive]

So if Scott is leading among Hispanics in Southern Florida, I guess Scott might win Miami or just do a strong performance there.

Scott isnt coming close to winning Miami.

Okay so maybe around 45 % for Scott in Miami.

Trump won 54% of Cubans in 2016 and still came nowhere near Hillary in Miami-Dade.

He actually lost Cubans 50-48 according to the Latino Decisions exit poll.

But he won them according to the real exit polls and the precinct data seems to match them better. Latino decisions is an advocacy group known for fudging numbers

The real precinct data suggests the Latino Decisions exit poll was more accurate. If Trump got 54% of the Cuban vote, please explain these shifts in state house districts:
HD 115 (53% Cuban) went from 50-49 Romney to 54-43 Clinton
HD 103 (56% Cuban) went from 55-45 Obama to 59-39 Clinton
HD 111 (72% Cuban) went from 52-48 Romney to 52-46 Clinton
HD 114 (60% Cuban) went from 50-49 Obama to 55-42 Clinton
HD 118 (52% Cuban) went from 51-48 Obama to 55-42 Clinton

[Pandaguineapig]

So if Scott is leading among Hispanics in Southern Florida, I guess Scott might win Miami or just do a strong performance there.

Scott isnt coming close to winning Miami.

Okay so maybe around 45 % for Scott in Miami.

Trump won 54% of Cubans in 2016 and still came nowhere near Hillary in Miami-Dade.

He actually lost Cubans 50-48 according to the Latino Decisions exit poll.

But he won them according to the real exit polls and the precinct data seems to match them better. Latino decisions is an advocacy group known for fudging numbers

The real precinct data suggests the Latino Decisions exit poll was more accurate. If Trump got 54% of the Cuban vote, please explain these shifts in state house districts:
HD 115 (53% Cuban) went from 50-49 Romney to 54-43 Clinton
HD 103 (56% Cuban) went from 55-45 Obama to 59-39 Clinton
HD 111 (72% Cuban) went from 52-48 Romney to 52-46 Clinton
HD 114 (60% Cuban) went from 50-49 Obama to 55-42 Clinton
HD 118 (52% Cuban) went from 51-48 Obama to 55-42 Clinton

You should note that those areas have become much more black and puerto rican over the last few years. Also latino decisions claimed Trump only got 16% of the latino vote nation wide, county and precinct level data show that to be ridiculous

[ON Progressive]

So if Scott is leading among Hispanics in Southern Florida, I guess Scott might win Miami or just do a strong performance there.

Scott isnt coming close to winning Miami.

Okay so maybe around 45 % for Scott in Miami.

Trump won 54% of Cubans in 2016 and still came nowhere near Hillary in Miami-Dade.

He actually lost Cubans 50-48 according to the Latino Decisions exit poll.

But he won them according to the real exit polls and the precinct data seems to match them better. Latino decisions is an advocacy group known for fudging numbers

The real precinct data suggests the Latino Decisions exit poll was more accurate. If Trump got 54% of the Cuban vote, please explain these shifts in state house districts:
HD 115 (53% Cuban) went from 50-49 Romney to 54-43 Clinton
HD 103 (56% Cuban) went from 55-45 Obama to 59-39 Clinton
HD 111 (72% Cuban) went from 52-48 Romney to 52-46 Clinton
HD 114 (60% Cuban) went from 50-49 Obama to 55-42 Clinton
HD 118 (52% Cuban) went from 51-48 Obama to 55-42 Clinton

You should note that those areas have become much more black and puerto rican over the last few years. Also latino decisions claimed Trump only got 16% of the latino vote nation wide, county and precinct level data show that to be ridiculous

They literally quote precinct data in their PDF that backs up their data: http://www.latinodecisions.com/files/6514/7880/5462/PostElection2016.pdf

[Pandaguineapig]

So if Scott is leading among Hispanics in Southern Florida, I guess Scott might win Miami or just do a strong performance there.

Scott isnt coming close to winning Miami.

Okay so maybe around 45 % for Scott in Miami.

Trump won 54% of Cubans in 2016 and still came nowhere near Hillary in Miami-Dade.

He actually lost Cubans 50-48 according to the Latino Decisions exit poll.

But he won them according to the real exit polls and the precinct data seems to match them better. Latino decisions is an advocacy group known for fudging numbers

The real precinct data suggests the Latino Decisions exit poll was more accurate. If Trump got 54% of the Cuban vote, please explain these shifts in state house districts:
HD 115 (53% Cuban) went from 50-49 Romney to 54-43 Clinton
HD 103 (56% Cuban) went from 55-45 Obama to 59-39 Clinton
HD 111 (72% Cuban) went from 52-48 Romney to 52-46 Clinton
HD 114 (60% Cuban) went from 50-49 Obama to 55-42 Clinton
HD 118 (52% Cuban) went from 51-48 Obama to 55-42 Clinton

You should note that those areas have become much more black and puerto rican over the last few years. Also latino decisions claimed Trump only got 16% of the latino vote nation wide, county and precinct level data show that to be ridiculous

They literally quote precinct data in their PDF that backs up their data: http://www.latinodecisions.com/files/6514/7880/5462/PostElection2016.pdf

If their exit polls were correct hillary would have won florida by 5. Thats why most people looking back at the election use numbers from actual exit pollsters rather than interest groups

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I don't know if my dad is trolling me or just growing senile but just an hour ago he was blabbering to me about how is growing increasingly confident in Nelson and Bredesen, and thinks the Parkland kids and Broco will boost Nelson to victory... and when I said how the frig can you be confident in Nelson he is within the moe for the past over half year, sure you can make an argument that he will edge out but to say that you have high confidence and are not concerned is kind of weird. And he was like son we got the momentum and turnout on our side in this blue wave, it'll be enough to secure him. He also thinks that dems hold every seat and pickup TN, AZ, and NV. The only one he could plasuibly see flipping is ND, and yet still he looked at me crazy when I said if Daschle did not survive neither will Heitkamp.

[Zaybay]

I don't know if my dad is trolling me or just growing senile but just an hour ago he was blabbering to me about how is growing increasingly confident in Nelson and Bredesen, and thinks the Parkland kids and Broco will boost Nelson to victory... and when I said how the frig can you be confident in Nelson he is within the moe for the past over half year, sure you can make an argument that he will edge out but to say that you have high confidence and are not concerned is kind of weird. And he was like son we got the momentum and turnout on our side in this blue wave, it'll be enough to secure him. He also thinks that dems hold every seat and pickup TN, AZ, and NV. The only one he could plasuibly see flipping is ND, and yet still he looked at me crazy when I said if Daschle did not survive neither will Heitkamp.

Sounds to me your father is looking at the environment. At its current rate, a modest estimate assumes D10. If this is true, or even higher, then yeah, he is correct. If it lowers, then no.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems arent up 10 and loses seats in tve Senate. Its been a 4-6 point modest lead on Generic ballot

[Ebsy]

Demographic polls are usually worthless.

[BudgieForce]

Dems arent up 10 and loses seats in tve Senate. Its been a 4-6 point modest lead on Generic ballot

I have so many issues with this post but I know your just gonna ignore whatever i respond with.

[IceSpear]

This thread is a hot mess, lol.

[AtorBoltox]

I don't know if my dad is trolling me or just growing senile but just an hour ago he was blabbering to me about how is growing increasingly confident in Nelson and Bredesen, and thinks the Parkland kids and Broco will boost Nelson to victory... and when I said how the frig can you be confident in Nelson he is within the moe for the past over half year, sure you can make an argument that he will edge out but to say that you have high confidence and are not concerned is kind of weird. And he was like son we got the momentum and turnout on our side in this blue wave, it'll be enough to secure him. He also thinks that dems hold every seat and pickup TN, AZ, and NV. The only one he could plasuibly see flipping is ND, and yet still he looked at me crazy when I said if Daschle did not survive neither will Heitkamp.

Your dad is a smarter man than you

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I don't know if my dad is trolling me or just growing senile but just an hour ago he was blabbering to me about how is growing increasingly confident in Nelson and Bredesen, and thinks the Parkland kids and Broco will boost Nelson to victory... and when I said how the frig can you be confident in Nelson he is within the moe for the past over half year, sure you can make an argument that he will edge out but to say that you have high confidence and are not concerned is kind of weird. And he was like son we got the momentum and turnout on our side in this blue wave, it'll be enough to secure him. He also thinks that dems hold every seat and pickup TN, AZ, and NV. The only one he could plasuibly see flipping is ND, and yet still he looked at me crazy when I said if Daschle did not survive neither will Heitkamp.

Your dad is a smarter man than you

that is true.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Below is the link to the Tampa Bay Times setting out the Axios/Survey Monkey poll, showing Scott leading 49% to 46%.  I am not linking the story for the poll.  I am linking it for the Nelson photo.  I think I have linked this photo before in a different newspaper article.  It must be a photo that is circulating.  Nelson looks like death warmed over.  Photos like this cannot help him.  He would scare my grandchildren.

http://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/07/10/new-axios-poll-in-florida-rick-scott-49-bill-nelson-46/

At least on his website they have at least one old photo or doctored current one. But there are others that are bad.

https://www.nelsonforsenate.com/bills-story/

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Below is the link to the Tampa Bay Times setting out the Axios/Survey Monkey poll, showing Scott leading 49% to 46%.  I am not linking the story for the poll.  I am linking it for the Nelson photo.  I think I have linked this photo before in a different newspaper article.  It must be a photo that is circulating.  Nelson looks like death warmed over.  Photos like this cannot help him.  He would scare my grandchildren.

http://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/07/10/new-axios-poll-in-florida-rick-scott-49-bill-nelson-46/

At least on his website they have at least one old photo or doctored current one. But there are others that are bad.

https://www.nelsonforsenate.com/bills-story/

And yet Roy Moore or your emphatic endorsement of him somehow wouldn't?

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

As the OP I advise members to not waste their time responding to OC, Arkansas Yankee, or UWS.

This thread is a hot mess, lol.

[Tender Branson]

What a useless, meaningless poll ...

They should have polled FL as a whole.

What's next ? A poll of Mingo County, WV unemployed ?

[Doimper]

Below is the link to the Tampa Bay Times setting out the Axios/Survey Monkey poll, showing Scott leading 49% to 46%.  I am not linking the story for the poll.  I am linking it for the Nelson photo.  I think I have linked this photo before in a different newspaper article.  It must be a photo that is circulating.  Nelson looks like death warmed over.  Photos like this cannot help him.  He would scare my grandchildren.

http://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/07/10/new-axios-poll-in-florida-rick-scott-49-bill-nelson-46/

At least on his website they have at least one old photo or doctored current one. But there are others that are bad.

https://www.nelsonforsenate.com/bills-story/

And yet Roy Moore or your emphatic endorsement of him somehow wouldn't?

Roy Moore would just grope his grandchildren.

[IceSpear]

What's next ? A poll of Mingo County, WV unemployed ?

How exactly would they answer the poll? From their Obamaphones?

[Arkansas Yankee]

As the OP I advise members to not waste their time responding to OC, Arkansas Yankee, or UWS.

This thread is a hot mess, lol.

As the OP I advise members to not waste their time responding to OC, Arkansas Yankee, or UWS.

This thread is a hot mess, lol.

You realize in the comment above I am actually not attacking Nelson.  I am pointing out something that there are actions that can be taken to mitigate by attempting to get decent photos out.

Of course Scott is subtly making an issue of age by making an issue of Nelson’s failure to agree to debates quickly.  

https://rickscottforflorida.com/2018/07/03/scott-for-florida-launches-the-bill-nelson-debate-dodger-calendar/
Nelson looks like an old man and is acting like one.  He needs to step up his game. You may be putting your head in the sand.  I hope you keep it there.

[kyc0705]

Below is the link to the Tampa Bay Times setting out the Axios/Survey Monkey poll, showing Scott leading 49% to 46%.  I am not linking the story for the poll.  I am linking it for the Nelson photo.  I think I have linked this photo before in a different newspaper article.  It must be a photo that is circulating.  Nelson looks like death warmed over.  Photos like this cannot help him.  He would scare my grandchildren.

http://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/07/10/new-axios-poll-in-florida-rick-scott-49-bill-nelson-46/

At least on his website they have at least one old photo or doctored current one. But there are others that are bad.

https://www.nelsonforsenate.com/bills-story/

Voldemort vs. Skeletor is one hell of an election.