FL-SEN (Mason Dixon): Scott leads among South Florida Hispanics

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Poll was of Hispanics in Miami-Dade and Broward Counties.

All South Florida Hispanics:

Scott - 42%
Nelson - 39%

Among Cuban-Americans, Scott leads Nelson 58 percent to 30 percent. Among non-Cuban American Hispanic voters, Nelson leads Scott 50 percent to 22 percent.

Among those Hispanics in Miami-Dade County, Scott leads 47%-34%. Nelson leads 56%-25% among Broward County Hispanics.

There is also a significant gender gap, with a 45%-36% lead for Scott among Men, while Nelson leads among Women 42%-39%. Scott leads among all age groups except for those aged 18-34, where Nelson does have a significant 61%-24% advantage.

https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/T51-Pregunta-Poll-Questions-487812041.html

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The polls are going up for the GOP

[Canis]

Nelson is in big trouble this will likely be his closest race ever.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Um, this is the poll of a subset of a subset. I don't think anyone can make much out of it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Scott is still Gov and in the middle of a campaign, where Latinos voted for him over Crist

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Scott is still Gov and in the middle of a campaign, where Latinos voted for him over Crist

that is simply false lol, do research before you comment.

[LimoLiberal]

Awful poll for Nelson.

[Yellowhammer]

This can not be correct, the fundamentals mean that Nelson will win by 20. Safe D.

[ON Progressive]

I remember when Mason-Dixon had Romney ahead by 6 in the I-4 corridor (source: http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/national/tampa-bay-timesbay-news-9-poll-i-4-voters-back-romney-51-45/1258459) and then he lost the I-4 corridor by 6.

[ajc0918]

Scott is still Gov and in the middle of a campaign, where Latinos voted for him over Crist

that is simply false lol, do research before you comment.

South Florida Hispanics are the most conservative in the state. Cubans are still likely a plurality of Hispanics in South Florida whereas in the rest of the state Cubans are vastly overshadowed by Puerto Ricans (largely in Orlando and Tampa) and other ethnicities.

Not a good poll for Nelson but there are so many factors that it's hard to tell how accurate it is. Additionally, many first generation Hispanic Americans may not speak good English with would limit their ability to fully understand a telephone poll. This is particularly true among new Puerto Ricans.

[Pandaguineapig]

Man this really is moving towards Scott, Atlas red avatars are blind to the competitive nature of this race for some reason. Nelson may have ran a good campaign in 2000 but his campaign this year has been poor so far (his ads are atrocious)

[ON Progressive]

Mason-Dixon is an atrocious pollster and people need to realize this.

Besides their poll in 2012 which had Romney up 51-45 in the I-4 corridor (he lost it 53-46), they had Mia Love up 12 that year in UT-04 (she lost), and had McCaskill only up 2 in MO-Sen (she won by 16).

[ajc0918]

Man this really is moving towards Scott, Atlas red avatars are blind to the competitive nature of this race for some reason. Nelson may have ran a good campaign in 2000 but his campaign this year has been poor so far (his ads are atrocious)

No it's not. This race is still a toss up despite Scott spending $20M+ on TV ads.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Problem with Nelson is he hasn't really been campaigning much, especially to minority voters while Scott has been blitzing the state with ads. Polling suggests Scott is doing well with recent Puerto Rican immigrants and other PR's here, he has a 21% advantage over Nelson in terms of likeability, etc.

Nelson needs to stop using the old Floridem coalition and focus on the new demographics of the state.

[Zaybay]

Man this really is moving towards Scott, Atlas red avatars are blind to the competitive nature of this race for some reason. Nelson may have ran a good campaign in 2000 but his campaign this year has been poor so far (his ads are atrocious)

No it's not. This race is still a toss up despite Scott spending $20M+ on TV ads.

^
This race has been fluctuating back and forth even though Scott has been pelting the airwaves since he announced. This is what he did in 2010, and 2014, and it always ends with him having a close election. Why? Because he always makes the same mistake. He doesnt build up a ground game, no GOTV effort, and many voters have expressed annoyance at Rick Scotts ads.

Also this weird fear that Nelson is neglecting Latinos and doing absolutely nothing to reach out is rather false, or at least a twist on the truth. Nelson has been putting many spanish only ads and has worked with progressive Latino groups. Rick Scott has done similar. No candidate is forgetting about this group. This fear all stemmed from a politico article, from a writer who was famous for writing in depth analysis about "How the Dems ruined their chances with their gov. shutdown" "Why Dems should not go against the Trump tax cut" and many others.

Also, this is just my opinion. A poll that tries to poll one demographic group, especially from one that many dont consider English as a primary language, is rather faulty. Cubans are a plurality in the south of FL, but they are usually over represented in polling. They speak English the best, and so are able to answer automatic polling, and this group has traditionally leaned R. Rick Scott was said to have won Hispanics in 2014 due to exit polling, but further polling shows this was not the case.

This race is tilt-D, but I think it will be close, but with a Nelson advantage.

[BudgieForce]

Why bother? Just poll the whole state.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The race isn't tilt D anymore, its tossup, due to the fact Scott is the incumbent Gov and Latinos voted for him over Crist.

I doubt Dems hold everyone of their seats

[BudgieForce]

The race isn't tilt D anymore, its tossup, due to the fact Scott is the incumbent Gov and Latinos voted for him over Crist.

I doubt Dems hold everyone of their seats

They didnt though. There is literally a graph in this thread disproving that.

[CapoteMonster]

Cubans in Miami almost always vote R by this margin. Scott leading among them is not a big deal.

This same poll also shows Nelson winning Independents by 10 among South Florida Hispanics.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Let's hope Nelson is doing better with the old white vote than Hillary, otherwise this looks bad.

[BudgieForce]

Let's hope Nelson is doing better with the old white vote than Hillary, otherwise this looks bad.

Spoiler, he probably is.

[Zaybay]

Let's hope Nelson is doing better with the old white vote than Hillary, otherwise this looks bad.

Narrator: He was

[MT Treasurer]

Katherine Harris 2.0, obviously. /s

Scott is one of like three competent Republican Senate candidates running this year, and Nelson is a weaker incumbent than Tester, Manchin or even McCaskill. Toss-up.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

And pundits thought Crist would beat Scott, this will be a nailbiter, just like that Gubernatorial race.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I read in an article that a Republican campaign operative for McConnell when asked to guess Nelson's fate said that he guesses shortly after labor day, the national democrats will hand him a canteen and pistol and leave him for dead. I laughed pretty hard at that terminology, but honestly I think there is a 30-40% chance that it happens.