Rate Arizona in 2020

[QAnonKelly]

D leaning tossup imo

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Unless Dems win a landslide AZ isn't flipping

[Progressive Pessimist]

It is going to depend on the Democratic candidate. It could be either lean R or a tossup. Either way though, Arizona will definitely be more competitive than usual.

[😥]

Tossup/Tilt R

[Jersey Jimmy]

Lean D, provided the Dems don't screw it up.

[UncleSam]

Lean R for now. If Sinema wins by 10 then I’ll change my opinion of the state, but I haven’t seen a good reason to assume it’ll be a true toss up with a presidential electorate yet. Low turnout elections are much better at predicting midterm conditions (such as the senate race this November) than they are at predicting presidential elections.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Dems will invest in it, if McCain leaves it vacant, but other than that, they should concentrate on WI, Iowa and OH, states that are more competitive

[pbrower2a]

More R than the US at large, but that may not be enough to keep it out of the D category. The state could be the equivalent of Virginia 2008 in 2020, especially if the Democrat wins the Senate seat in November 2018.

[UWS]

Maybe Trump pardoning Joe Arpaio might mobilize Arizona Hispanics to vote Democrat.

I think also it will depend on the Maricopa County (home to Phoenix) because Trump won it by only 3 percentage points and that if Clinton succeeded to flip it in 2016 (I mean if we shift the 45 546 people margin that voted for Trump in the Maricopa County to Clinton) she might have won Arizona. In fact, that would have given Trump 1,206,855 votes in total in Arizona and given Clinton 1,206,713 votes, thus making Arizona a very very close race.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Arizona,_2016

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Arizona,_2016#Results_by_county

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

2004: +8% R
2008: +15.75% R
2012: +12.9% R
2016: +5.5% R

My hunch for 2020: +2% R, which to me says tossup.

[Bojack Horseman]

toss up

[Progressive Pessimist]

Maybe Trump pardoning Joe Arpaio might mobilize Arizona Hispanics to vote Democrat.

I think also it will depend on the Maricopa County (home to Phoenix) because Trump won it by only 3 percentage points and that if Clinton succeeded to flip it in 2016 (I mean if we shift the 45 546 people margin that voted for Trump in the Maricopa County to Clinton) she might have won Arizona. In fact, that would have given Trump 1,206,855 votes in total in Arizona and given Clinton 1,206,713 votes, thus making Arizona a very very close race.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Arizona,_2016

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Arizona,_2016#Results_by_county

That could happen. But I doubt that enough voters will have that on their minds in 2020 as a definitive reason to vote way or another.

[NOVA Green]

Lean Dem....

I am assuming many of you either weren't paying attention to the results of the 2018 AZ-CD-'08 Special Election, or are just hedging bets and voting Toss-Up as the "Safe" option....

My assumption regarding the 2020 PRES race is that Trump will the Republican Candidate and that virtually regardless of whomever the Democratic Party nominates that we will continue to see significant erosion in the Republican troika of support within Maricopa County (Older Anglos, Upper-Income Educated Anglos, and Middle-Class Latino swing voters).

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

Toss-up.

I see AZ as the one state where demographic trends will help Democrats the most.

[mencken]

Arizona has not trended Dem as much as it appears, Romney just did unusually well there for some reason (Mormons cannot be entirely responsible for that). McCain did too, but the reasons for that are a bit more obvious.

[Sumner 1868]

Lean R. Drumpf has so far keep Social Security/Medicare privatization off the table and I don't see Hispanic turnout being high enough.

[Xeuma]

Tilt R to Lean R with a generic Democrat. If the Democrats run someone uniquely suitable to the political climate in southern "swingy" states, like Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, etc. then its probably a tossup, tilting towards republicans more so than Florida. Someone like Harris would do well in that regard, but I remain doubtful that Harris could win a presidential election.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Arizona has not trended Dem as much as it appears, Romney just did unusually well there for some reason (Mormons cannot be entirely responsible for that). McCain did too, but the reasons for that are a bit more obvious.

Well the incumbent Obama did beat their popular Senator four years earlier....

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Its a tossup

[President Johnson]

Tilt R

Unless Dems win a landslide AZ isn't flipping

The Dems will invest in it, if McCain leaves it vacant, but other than that, they should concentrate on WI, Iowa and OH, states that are more competitive

Its a tossup

All the same thread

[Use Your Illusion]

Tossup? No way. Unless Trump is getting massacred across the USA there is no way it's flipping from Republicans. Arizona is a long way from becoming the exception to the rule. A win there will be about as viable as when Obama won Indiana. A flip would be almost unprecedented.

[SN2903]

Lean R because of some of the never Trump effect going back to him in 2020 who may have voted for Hillary in 2016. Trump has consolidated the GOP behind him.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Tilt R

Unless Dems win a landslide AZ isn't flipping

The Dems will invest in it, if McCain leaves it vacant, but other than that, they should concentrate on WI, Iowa and OH, states that are more competitive

Its a tossup

All the same thread

I've noticed this too from them in many threads. It's fine to change one's mind, but to do so this often is very perplexing.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We have to see how 2018 plays out, AZ is in play for Gubernatorial contest and if Garcia wins, it can be in play in 2020.

[NOVA Green]

Lean Dem....

I am assuming many of you either weren't paying attention to the results of the 2018 AZ-CD-'08 Special Election, or are just hedging bets and voting Toss-Up as the "Safe" option....

My assumption regarding the 2020 PRES race is that Trump will the Republican Candidate and that virtually regardless of whomever the Democratic Party nominates that we will continue to see significant erosion in the Republican troika of support within Maricopa County (Older Anglos, Upper-Income Educated Anglos, and Middle-Class Latino swing voters).

I wish I could believe that a low-profile, low-turnout special election to the House two years prior has anything to do with a presidential election. I just wish I retained such an active imagination.

Very witty for sure, although undoubtedly having read the AZ CD-08 Special Election thread thoroughly, you understand why the Tea Leaves are particularly ominous for the Republican Party in Arizona in the 2018 General Election, as well as quite possibly the 2020 General Election.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=287204.msg6178018#msg6178018

Now, if we see the Dems win the US-AZ-SEN race, AZ-GOV race, maybe even flip a US-House Seat, and significant increases in the AZ State House and Senate in 2018, will your imagination start to become a bit more active when it comes to the 2020 Presidential Election in Arizona?