WV-PPP: Manchin +7 without Blankenship, +11 with Blankenship

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

MANCHIN!!!!!!!!!!! YAaAaaAAaaAAAaaAAAAsssssss!!!!!!!!

Anyways, to be the screaming that this dumb supreme court thing will help Morrisey are fooling themselves, because Manchin will vote for whoever the heck it is.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I guess Manchin could be in a worse position.

Yeah, I guess it would be nice for yall if Morrisey could lead in even a SINGLE non-internal thusfar.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Manchin, and for that matter Donnelly, Heitkamp, and McCaskill, are thanking the good Lord that they have the chance to vote for a Trump SCOTUS nominee weeks before the election.

Yes, can be very helpful for them. I have no idea how the others will vote, but I can almost guarantee you that Manchin and Heitkamp will be supporting President Trump's nominee.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I don't think Morrisey is some great candidate at all.  I don't think Jenkins is either, though, and I think Manchin was going to win regardless.

Jenkins could have pulled it off.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

^I get that you don’t like him because he’s a former Democrat and that you want to see his district vote Democratic at the federal level again, but this is West Virginia we’re talking about. At the very least, he could have cut into Manchin's margins in the ancestrally Democratic counties in WV-03. Now this is most likely just going to be WV-GOV 2016 2.0.

To quote your favorite line, MT, "it's not about what I want to happen."  I just think Manchin would have survived no matter what.  Whether he Morrisey does worse in WV-3 or Jenkins does worse in the traditionally Republican areas, I don't think it wouldn't have had any net effect on the margin, and I think Manchin was going to survive vs. either one.

Before you open the Champaign remember Wisconsin 2016.

I appreciate your nod to my Illini there, but it's champagne*.

He is a refined Arkanasan gentleman. Respect his spelling for what it is. /s

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Jenkins would have done a lot better. Jenkins isn’t a carpetbagger like Morrissey is, and he would make it significantly harder for Manchin to run up the score where he needs to (Southern WV)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Jenkins would have done a lot better. Jenkins isn’t a carpetbagger like Morrissey is, and he would make it significantly harder for Manchin to run up the scorew where he needs to (Southern WV)

 I agree
E
But the whole WV party structure backed him.  Why?

It seems Morrissey has the stupid GOP TENDENCY to fool with Social Security and Medicare.  I think all wages should be subject to SS AND Medicare taxes.  But I also think there has to be some reform or the system will collapse.  But I figure I do not want to be hit by Democrats for trying to reform.  We always loose. Just let it collapse, then reform.   Or maybe it won’t collapse. Republicans should stay away from this issue.  Jenkins understood this I think.

Then there is Cruz backing Morrisssey.  If Cruz is backing him, you know he is probably too conservative for WV. 

Capito must know Morrissey is too conservative and a carpetbagger.  I do not know why she went along with him.

Also, Morrissey’s personality reminds me of a mouse.

But I would still support the mouse.

This is actually some pretty good analysis and sums up a lot of what I think except the last line lol.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Is there any circumstances that might cause Manchin to bolt, if he is re-elected? By bolt I mean change party affiliation. 

Few

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Is there any circumstances that might cause Manchin to bolt, if he is re-elected? By bolt I mean change party affiliation. 

Few

What are the few?

If almost all of the Democratic party leadership is completely washed out in primaries and Ocasio Cortez types begin to run the party from the top, I could see him shift, if he leads in no internals for 2024 as a dem but then polls himself as an R and is ahead, he might, if Schumer and Durbin somehow leave the scene and we get Reid types on steroids to do the whipping I could see a switch or retirement, just to name a few, but these all have low chances of occurring throughout the rest of Manchin's time, and heck, he probably won't even run in 2024.