The Bagel23/X Marks the Spot Cellar of Exquisitely Aged Content

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Ouch! These posts aged worse than moldy bread in Florida. lol 

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=247191.0

Wisconsin for sure, Russ Feingold is a much better candidate and Mark Kirk is more moderate than Johnson

Wisconsin. Johnson was almost DOA in a presidential year. Feingold is the strongest candidate Democrats could have fielded this year. I think he's going to win by a fairly substantial margin and I am looking forward to having Russ Feingold back in the Senate.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Re: What states will be won by a margin of less than 10%?

nobody guessing texas?

No because most people are sane.

This thread

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=240576.msg5154202#msg5154202

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Northam for President  

Northam 2020?

Warren has no chance of winning the Dem nomination and the Presidency

Warren ticks off too many people. Without the cult-like following that Bernie had, I don't think she has a real shot at the nomination.

I give her a 1/1024 chance of winning.

I guess this is way too early ... but whatever.

There's a big chance that she'll burn out over the next year and someone else will suck up her support.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=73173.0

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=14845.0

Virginia is very slowly trending Democrat, but it won't be a swing state in 2008 without a good, moderate populist like Bayh, in which case we won't need it. Whether it keeps trending until it becomes a battleground is impossible to know, but it will take good time.

In 2096 when a Democrat finally wins VA, the Democrats here will all say "I told you it was trending Democrat!".

Virginia will not go for Bayh.

The State has become more Republican in every one of the last four elections.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

My plan is to be the last standing NJ user here

x Admiral President

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Yeah, he totally won OC bigly in 2016.

Trump is running incredibly strong in Orange County.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

This thread is absolutely hilarious with hindsight.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=165525.msg3534493;topicseen#msg3534493

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Kentucky: Bevin +9

Louisiana: Rispone +4

Mississippi: Reeves +8

Boy was I so wrong on KY.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Yes, he will come to terms with his loss if he loses unlike many say here.

This one takes the cake.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Northam isn't going to last the weekend.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

For two years. Minnesota is losing a seat in redistricting and this district specifically is shrinking - she's a goner in '22.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

We already saw in 2016 that places that are close to BLM riots saw heavy swings towards Trump, especially among white working class voters. Missouri, where the movement started, is the most glaring example. Trump won it by 18.5, doubling Romney's margin because his tough on crime message resonated with working class whites scared of those riots leading to a spiral of violence. There hasn't been any polling about Americans views of BLM since 2017, as they have been very quiet since but last time 43% had a favorable view and 57% had an unfavorable view. The riots could be a massive liability for Biden in the midwest/rust belt and deliver Minnesota to Trump, not to mention making Biden's task of winning neighboring Wisconsin and the electoral college as well way harder.

Texas is flipping. You heard it here.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Im sure we will see Utah trend heavy to the GOP again to the normal 70% GOP levels with ought a strong 3rd party,  though Im unsure of the opinions of trump are in Utah post election, I would assume conservatives there are warming up to him but on the approvals by state map he seems to be around 50%

Strongest D trend would be AZ if the election were held today

Other than VA, I'm not sure.  Long term, all of AZ, GA, and TX I expect to trend D, but I don't know if it'll even happen in '20, much less be the strongest trends for the Dems.  Rather, I think it's very possible we see a bit of a "course correction" with these states, since they may have gotten a little bit ahead of themselves for one cycle.  Depending on what happens with the national PV, they may all still trend D, but I wouldn't be surprised if they swing R, even if just a bit.  Sort of like NC and CO did this time around.

2018 is going to be a wipeout in Miami for the GOP like 2014 was for Dems in West Virginia. Rubio also did well in Miami because Murphy ran a completely ghost campaign.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Basically put every NSV post on this thread.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Sticking with McAuliffe +3, 51-48. Wouldn’t be shocked if Youngkin won, but the math is tough.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

There are gonna be a lot of people here looking absolutely dumb come the night of February 5th 2024.

Hahahahaha