More likely to flip? Illinois or Wisconsin?

[Kingpoleon]

Personally, I think Kirk is much more moderate and a far better candidate than Johnson. Combined with Feingold being a far stronger candidate to Duckworth and Obama not campaigning here that I know of, I think Kirk is quite a bit more likely to hold on.

[Nyvin]

The danger for Kirk is the kind of Republicans that he's trying to appeal to are exactly the type that loath voting for Trump and might very well stay home.    In fact his home district of IL-10 is almost the archtype of suburb moderate GOP voter district that Trump will probably plummet in.

Johnson is screwed any way you put it though,  so hard to say.

[LLR]

Definitely Wisconsin, by virtue of there being next to no polls of Illinois

[Xing]

It's possible that Kirk will lose by more, but I think he has a better shot at winning (especially since Johnson has virtually no chance.)

[JMT]

Wisconsin for sure, Russ Feingold is a much better candidate and Mark Kirk is more moderate than Johnson

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Wisconsin about a 90% chance to flip
Illinois about a 75% chance to flip

[politicallefty]

Wisconsin. Johnson was almost DOA in a presidential year. Feingold is the strongest candidate Democrats could have fielded this year. I think he's going to win by a fairly substantial margin and I am looking forward to having Russ Feingold back in the Senate.

In Illinois, Kirk is by far the best candidate Republicans could run and Duckworth is roughly in the median in terms of candidate strength. With that said, Illinois's overwhelming Democratic advantage should give Duckworth a pretty easy victory, but I think it'll be closer than Wisconsin in the mid-to-high single digits.

[Figueira]

Wisconsin. But they'll probably both flip.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Wisconsin, easily.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Wisconsin.  Kirk is a moderate and is within striking distance in a number of polls.  Johnson, on the other hand, was toast as soon as Feingold announced.

[PAK Man]

Wisconsin by far. Kirk still has a base of support on the North Shore, which always came to his rescue even in Dem wave years like 2006 and 2008. I still think he'll lose, but Johnson doesn't have that.

[Torie]

Wisconsin about a 90% chance to flip
Illinois about a 75% chance to flip

That looks about right.

[Metalhead123]

Johnson is screwed beyond belief. Only an upset to end all upsets will let him keep his seat. As for Kirk, I think he still has a chance. He isn't as far behind in the polls as Johnson is and if he is able to regain support from both Independents and Republicans, he has a very good shot of staying senator.

[Metalhead123]

Johnson is screwed beyond belief. Only an upset to end all upsets will let him keep his seat. As for Kirk, I think he still has a chance. He isn't as far behind in the polls as Johnson is and if he is able to regain support from both Independents and Republicans, he has a very good shot of staying senator.

Nah (regarding Kirk), no Republican incumbent, who was fluke to begin with, running in a blue state in a Presidential year who's own internals show him at 37%, has a chance at winning reelection, especially with the kind of campaign he's ran this year. He should've just retired, to be honest.

Regarding the question in your signature: the site's owner started compiling map data prior to 2000, which was the year the media decided that blue = Democrat and red = Republican. Before that, many people used the opposite, and in other countries, the left leaning party usually uses red, while the right leaning party uses blue, such as in the UK.

I still do think that Johnson has an even lower chance than Kirk if that is the case. Also I see what you are saying about the colors. Every other site has it the other way around so I was curious.

[Kingpoleon]

I wonder if there are any Shy Kirk voters...

[America Needs R'hllor]

Polls seem to indicate Johnson closing in on Feingold, but I think it's quite equal by now and that both will flip.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

I think this needs to be revisited...

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Wisconsin, easily.

I change my mind after Kirk's racist gaffe. I'm still voting for him out of my sheer loathing for Duckworth, but he really deserves to lose after the garbage campaign he's run. I'm going to agree with Larry Sabato and say that Ron Johnson now has a better shot of pulling it out than Kirk does.

I have to imagine Republicans will at least somewhat target this seat in 2022, though, because Duckworth isn't particularly likable and is not a strong campaigner (and has basically ignored 101 of the state's 102 counties to the point where she ignored an interview invitation from the editorial board of the Peoria Journal Star, the most-read newspaper in Illinois outside of the Chicago area and the state's fourth-most-read). Republicans should also have a pretty good array of candidates to choose from, and Illinois votes significantly differently in midterms and presidential years. A good candidate who can clear the primary field could take her down.

[Figueira]

Now I'd say Illinois, but they're still both pretty close to safe for the Democrats.

[morgieb]

Appears I voted Wisconsin originally. Changing to Illinois. Johnson seems to be running a good campaign and it's a bit tighter than before (Marquette could confirm or deny here). Looks like Kirk's gonna get Blanched.

[Xing]

Now that we have some polling for Illinois, it's safe to say that Kirk will lose. Johnson is nearly certain to lose as well, but if Republicans somehow end up winning in a 2014-style wave, then maybe Johnson hangs on.

[Mr. Illini]

lol