The Bagel23/X Marks the Spot Cellar of Exquisitely Aged Content

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

When are Atlas posters going to realize “election denialism” is a mainstream view?

[TheReckoning]

Reality: Gay marriage is no longer an issue, Roe v. Wade will never be overturned for obvious reasons, mask-wearing is close to being over, and federal gun regulations are quite unlikely to pass.

There’s quite simply no point in voting based on social issues anymore.

[Sestak]

PA, bite me.

They're both pretty similar, but Josh Shapiro is the single most overrated candidate this cycle thus far. He's a very partisan Dem who has very little demonstrated crossover appeal, overperforming Biden by 3 against a poorly known opponent. In addition, Tom Wolf is even more unpopular than Whitmer is right now, and he's served alongside him and has to defend his record. It's just not realistic to think he's going to do much better than Whitmer.

I mean, the last sentence turned out to be right!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

No because Stacey Abrams is running a high energy campaign and has proven to be a massive FF.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Trump would never pick him as VP. He has too important a role to play as PA governor.

Mastriano is not winning, sorry. Red wave or not.

(Also I’ll admit there’s really no point in ignoring you or BG-NY - it’s more symbolic than anything else - because whenever I see a post is Hidden, the temptation gets to me and I see it anyway.)

"Scott Walker is not losing.  Blue wave or not."

PA voted 3.5 points right of the NPV in 2020.  This midterm is shaping up to be at least R+4, maybe R+5. PA-GOV is absolutely competitive, and probably the closest race to a toss up in gubernatorial races.  Mastriano won't do any more than 1.5-2 points worse than Oz.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's not very likely, but I still won't count it out.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

Was much more liberal in the AZ legislature. Its good to see an openly bisexual, openly nonreligious congresswoman.

Pro Sinema scarlet is cringe

[Schiff for Senate]

Trump would never pick him as VP. He has too important a role to play as PA governor.

Mastriano is not winning, sorry. Red wave or not.

(Also I’ll admit there’s really no point in ignoring you or BG-NY - it’s more symbolic than anything else - because whenever I see a post is Hidden, the temptation gets to me and I see it anyway.)

"Scott Walker is not losing.  Blue wave or not."

PA voted 3.5 points right of the NPV in 2020.  This midterm is shaping up to be at least R+4, maybe R+5. PA-GOV is absolutely competitive, and probably the closest race to a toss up in gubernatorial races.  Mastriano won't do any more than 1.5-2 points worse than Oz.

Proud that my response was 100% accurate:

Trump would never pick him as VP. He has too important a role to play as PA governor.

Mastriano is not winning, sorry. Red wave or not.

(Also I’ll admit there’s really no point in ignoring you or BG-NY - it’s more symbolic than anything else - because whenever I see a post is Hidden, the temptation gets to me and I see it anyway.)

"Scott Walker is not losing.  Blue wave or not."

PA voted 3.5 points right of the NPV in 2020.  This midterm is shaping up to be at least R+4, maybe R+5. PA-GOV is absolutely competitive, and probably the closest race to a toss up in gubernatorial races.  Mastriano won't do any more than 1.5-2 points worse than Oz.

Again - debate me to your heart’s content, but I will be vindicated in November. Candidate quality matters - reminder that in 2014, also a red wave, PA elected a Democrat over the incumbent GOPer to the governorship by 9 points.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Given the current price in Texas on an African-Americans life i bet IF He's charged with anything he maybe gets 2 years probation.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=529838.0

This thread in particular aged badly, given assumptions were made and users were attacked based con what was proven to be fake news later.

[Schiff for Senate]

I'm not a big fan but I expect him to be Speaker later today.

(Said of Kevin McCarthy. Note the date on which this post was made too. As of my inducting this into this Hall of Shame, it's still January 5. I mean, this take already hasn't exactly aged well, but I have a strong feeling that'll be especially true as time goes on, and especially clear in hindsight. If you're reading this and McCarthy has still not been elected speaker - or, better yet, if someone else was elected Speaker instead - then it'll be fully clear just how badly this take aged.)

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Castillo was allegedly trying to flee to an embassy from the Presidential Palace, got intercepted on his car and arrested.

My concern and sympathy for Peru aside - no respite from political chaos - I have to say... what a moron.

What did he think was going to happen? Vizcarra succeeded in dissolving Congress because it was A. Legal (though questionable), B. He stuck to the constitution and C. He had public support. And Castillo seemingly just goes and tries to cosplay as Alberto Fujimori without proper planning and support.

Truly a horribly aged post.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

The one who has the dignity to accept defeat and not spread conspiracy theories and endanger his country and the world order in general

With reports now incoming that Bolsonaro apparently accepts his loss.

It pains me to say this, but this makes him less evil than Trump at this point.

Brazilians storming congress, presidential palace and parliament right now.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Let's also not overlook that despite the R-favorable environment this year, Mastriano is a clear underdog to Shapiro in November.

This is an open race in a state that votes to the right of the nation in a Biden midterm where inflation is at a 40-year high, gas prices are at record highs, and the president has a 40% approval rating. This statement is absolutely ridiculous. Of course Mastriano is not the underdog.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Going to be fun looking back at this thread after Oz wins and all the Democrats mocking him in this thread have to eat their words.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Who makes the top four?

My guess is Tshhibaka, Murkowski, and Chesbro at least. No idea who gets the fourth spot.

I'm going to make a possibly insane prediction, and say Murkowski doesn't even make the top four.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

For the record I totally understand that what Adam says here made sense at the time and knowing only what we did then so I'm not dunking on him or anything...I just read this part and it was like WOW in my head.

I've known Snowguy for many years. He is honestly one of the most harmless and least offensive people to ever post on this increasingly wretched corner of the internet.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

No need to wait 2 years for this one.

There will be split voting between the Gov and Senate races, Kemp will win and so can Warnock

Gov race is Safe R, Senate race tilt D

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Reading this thread is like stepping in a parallel universe where Ukraine is winning the war, except IRL Kiev might be taken tonight, 2 days after the war started. I understand you're all cheerleading for one side, but you should at least read some of the Tweets you're posting and realize that they actually reveal what dire straits Ukraine is in, like the post about the TV program showing how to make Molotov cocktails and the video of Zelensky on the street in Kiev vowing to fight to the end and saying how we may not see him again.

[lfromnj]

Yeah, what has Poland ever done for us?  And it's not like the west hasn't turned their collective backs on them before.  Really, the Kurds, Jews, etc should be used to it by now.

What exactly does Poland need defending from? Please don't make yourself into a joke by going on some delusional Putin/Russia rant.

This is less about the content of the post and more about the user.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump wins all of his 2016 states -> AZ/TX/GA *might* be at lower margins but decent chance of it being even higher margins than 2016's, all other states likely to be won at higher margins than 2016's. New Hampshire won with a majority, Minnesota won with a plurality (but possibly a majority as well). Same with Maine-At-Large. Colorado and Virginia will be around as close as Minnesota was in 2016. New Mexico will be as close as Colorado was in 2016.

Trump's margins in New York, California, and most "Safe Blue" AND "Safe Red" states higher than it was in 2016. He'll get past 40% in New York, and be near Romney's 37% performance in California. He gets around 51% of he 'national popular vote,' maybe even higher.

House gets flipped back at around 218R-225R. John James defeats Gary Peters, GOP Candidate landslides Doug Jones, McSally survives, Collins survives, Gardner has a decent chance of surviving, Shaheen has a decent chance of losing to Lewandowski or Bolduc or whoever, Smith has a decent chance of losing to Lewis. Possibility of getting up to a 57R Senate.

GOP flips governorships in Montana and North Carolina.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So I think the Liberals and Roberts will uphold the conviction, while Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch, and Kavanaugh will overturn it. Barrett will be the decisive swing vote that I feel no confidence in predicting 1 way or the other.

[Thunder98]

There are gonna be a lot of people here looking absolutely dumb come the night of February 5th 2024.

Hahahahaha

[Atlas Force]

There are gonna be a lot of people here looking absolutely dumb come the night of February 5th 2024.

Hahahahaha

Should have waited until the night of February 5th 2024 to post this here for maximum comedy effect

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wow. Biden may outright lose Wayne County at this rate.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1762646470568640943