The Bagel23/X Marks the Spot Cellar of Exquisitely Aged Content

[Alcibiades]

Basically everything in the first 200 pages of the Biden campaign thread. It seemed like everyone on the site had decided that Biden was going to go down in flames before 2020 or lose the general if he won the primary. I forgot how silly it got at times.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=313625.0

If he wasn't Obama's Magic Grandpa he would have lost the former, and if Covid hadn't happened he most likely would have lost the latter.

To be fair, the first fact was already known when that thread was created, and, with hindsight, if Biden was losing, I think every other Democrat who ran in the primary would have as well.

[brucejoel99]

His launch video demonstrates how similar to Hillary it looks like he's going to run. Only one event/key issue brought up during his video (Charlottesville) and nothing about the economy or things that people are impacted by or care about. He went for Trump's judgment and character rather than his policies and track record. Vague platitudes about America and its people. I don't think he'll win the nomination, but if he does I think he'll lose to Trump.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

His launch video demonstrates how similar to Hillary it looks like he's going to run. Only one event/key issue brought up during his video (Charlottesville) and nothing about the economy or things that people are impacted by or care about. He went for Trump's judgment and character rather than his policies and track record. Vague platitudes about America and its people. I don't think he'll win the nomination, but if he does I think he'll lose to Trump.

To be fair, without Trump's botched handling of COVID, Trump likely would have won reelection, and Democrats likely would have gone with someone other than Biden. Obviously, we'll never know for sure, but this post was hardly absurd for April 2019.

[brucejoel99]

His launch video demonstrates how similar to Hillary it looks like he's going to run. Only one event/key issue brought up during his video (Charlottesville) and nothing about the economy or things that people are impacted by or care about. He went for Trump's judgment and character rather than his policies and track record. Vague platitudes about America and its people. I don't think he'll win the nomination, but if he does I think he'll lose to Trump.

To be fair, without Trump's botched handling of COVID, Trump likely would have won reelection, and Democrats likely would have gone with someone other than Biden. Obviously, we'll never know for sure, but this post was hardly absurd for April 2019.

Yeah, but to be fairer, this isn't the absurd thread. It's the exquisitely aged content thread, & the content is definitionally "exquisitely aged content" in the obviously sarcastic sense that said phrase was originally invoked in this thread's creation.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

His launch video demonstrates how similar to Hillary it looks like he's going to run. Only one event/key issue brought up during his video (Charlottesville) and nothing about the economy or things that people are impacted by or care about. He went for Trump's judgment and character rather than his policies and track record. Vague platitudes about America and its people. I don't think he'll win the nomination, but if he does I think he'll lose to Trump.

To be fair, without Trump's botched handling of COVID, Trump likely would have won reelection, and Democrats likely would have gone with someone other than Biden. Obviously, we'll never know for sure, but this post was hardly absurd for April 2019.

Yeah, but to be fairer, this isn't the absurd thread. It's the exquisitely aged content thread, & the content is definitionally "exquisitely aged content" in the obviously sarcastic sense that said phrase was originally invoked in this thread's creation.

I see we don't have a place to compile posts that, in hindsight, were not very prescient. So in the spirit of good fun, I christen this thread for that very purpose.

I don't see how anyone could have predicted a 2020-21 pandemic in April 2019, let alone how it would affect U.S. politics. So one can hardly fault Elections Guy's post for not being prescient unless one is convinced that absent COVID Biden would definitely have won both the nomination and the Presidency.

[Stuart98]

I think it's premature to talk about districts in Arkansas trending hard toward the GOP given that if Hillary Clinton had been the nominee, she'd have won handily. 

[Thunder98]

Northam isn't going to last the weekend.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

We'll see him and others celebrating on here once Chauvin is acquitted, naturally.

[Thunder98]

For two years. Minnesota is losing a seat in redistricting and this district specifically is shrinking - she's a goner in '22.

[Meatball Ron]

For two years. Minnesota is losing a seat in redistricting and this district specifically is shrinking - she's a goner in '22.

Lmao whoops.

To be fair, people were exclusively making 7-district maps for MN.

But yeah, gotta use wording that's less aggressively certain about an uncertain outcome

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Most of us at the PG&D board expected MN to lose its 8th seat. And if MN-08 was lost, it's not very unfair to assume she would have been goner, even though there was of course a degree of excessive certainty regardless.

[_.]

Speaking of Population totals and redistricting:

I’m calling it. NC will surpass GA in population.

I'm making the prediction Florida will be bigger than expected (Expected Population: 21,673,328) because of improved outreach to people. I've seen it with my own eyes (yeah this is anecdotal evidence but what other indicators do we have), this year it was way bigger and more expansive than it was 10 years ago, there were signs and flyers everywhere, and the census takers knocked on our door 5 different times even after we filled the form out online. The last census my family didn't even get counted, there was zero outreach. This maybe is just my neighborhood but I wouldn't be surprised if it's a common experience.

Yes, I strongly expect FL to overperform.  Absolutely no doubt it gains 2 seats.  The housing market there is on fire in a way that puts 2006 to shame. 

Florida and North Carolina both ended up underperforming as Georgia overperformed and increased its lead over North Carolina.

I suppose these predictions made sense at the time, though.

[lfromnj]

Pretty much all of us at the PG&D board expected MN to lose its 8th seat. And if MN-08 was lost, it's not very unfair to assume she would have been goner, even though there was of course a degree of excessive certainty regardless.

No I don't think we all assumed an 8th seat lost. I was 50/50 myself, I just drew 7 seat maps because 8 seat is fairly obviously a least change map from the current pretty nicely drawn map.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Pretty much all of us at the PG&D board expected MN to lose its 8th seat. And if MN-08 was lost, it's not very unfair to assume she would have been goner, even though there was of course a degree of excessive certainty regardless.

No I don't think we all assumed an 8th seat lost. I was 50/50 myself, I just drew 7 seat maps because 8 seat is fairly obviously a least change map from the current pretty nicely drawn map.

Fair point, apologies for the imprecise wording.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

SCOTUS goes along with it.

Basically all indications to this point are that they will not.

There are 5 Republican partisans on the court, of which at least 2, maybe three have already tipped their hand in favour of autocracy.

[President Johnson]

Stansbury by 2 points.

[Xing]

Also (context):

Toss-up.

[brucejoel99]

Yikes, just 12 days:

I admire the cockiness in this message thread about a man who may well fill Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s Supreme Court seat.

And we admire your cockiness in thinking he'll ever get the chance.

[Thunder98]

We already saw in 2016 that places that are close to BLM riots saw heavy swings towards Trump, especially among white working class voters. Missouri, where the movement started, is the most glaring example. Trump won it by 18.5, doubling Romney's margin because his tough on crime message resonated with working class whites scared of those riots leading to a spiral of violence. There hasn't been any polling about Americans views of BLM since 2017, as they have been very quiet since but last time 43% had a favorable view and 57% had an unfavorable view. The riots could be a massive liability for Biden in the midwest/rust belt and deliver Minnesota to Trump, not to mention making Biden's task of winning neighboring Wisconsin and the electoral college as well way harder.

Texas is flipping. You heard it here.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Absolutely not. Identity voting is very real. It's a big reason why Trump appeals to the WWC as well (not that Trump is WWC himself, but he behaves like one, which is what is important). But it is also a main reason why more "cerebral" candidates like Buttigieg or Warren overwhelmingly appeals to the highly educated. People do like to vote for people that they can identify with. With Kanye it is not just his skin colour, but certainly attachment to hip-hop culture and his larger than life celebrity personality.

BTW, I am NOT saying that black people will vote for Kanye in droves, but it is possible that he siphons a non-insignificant part of the black vote away from Biden.

[BlueSwan]

Absolutely not. Identity voting is very real. It's a big reason why Trump appeals to the WWC as well (not that Trump is WWC himself, but he behaves like one, which is what is important). But it is also a main reason why more "cerebral" candidates like Buttigieg or Warren overwhelmingly appeals to the highly educated. People do like to vote for people that they can identify with. With Kanye it is not just his skin colour, but certainly attachment to hip-hop culture and his larger than life celebrity personality.

BTW, I am NOT saying that black people will vote for Kanye in droves, but it is possible that he siphons a non-insignificant part of the black vote away from Biden.

I stand by that quote. I am arguing a possibility, not a certainty. It turned out that Kanyes campaign was a trainwreck, which was not surprising in the slightest.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Biden will lose to Trump

Joe Biden is the Jeb Bush of the 2020 Democratic Presidential Primaries.

[Continential]

As has been covered in agonizing detail above, Johnson is a dreadful choice - half the country thinks he's a buffoon, the other half thinks he's a weasel, and most of his party agrees with one or both propositions. If Johnson was actually as good a politician as he (and his supporters) thinks he is, he wouldn't have dropped out of the leadership race last year and he wouldn't need to hold his fire now.

Re: Who will replace Theresa May as Conservative leader?

[Deblano]

Biden will lose to Trump

Joe Biden is the Jeb Bush of the 2020 Democratic Presidential Primaries.

Christ.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm still waiting for him to withdraw his resignation, because I don't trust him.

I'm still waiting for him to withdraw his resignation, because I don't trust him.

Bookmarking. Will be bringing up again once he's gone and you are OWNED.

I don't trust him either. Feel free to bookmark and own me. I think it's like 90-10 he goes through with it.