2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Talk Business Poll conducted by Hendrix College (538 B- pollster) show the following results in the Arkansas Congressional races

First District  422 respondents  Margin of Error +/- 4.7%. This used to be the most Democrat District. Flipped in 2010
      Rick Crawford (R inc) 57%
      Chintin Desia   (D).     22%
      Elvis Presley (L).            3%        Yes this guy changed his name.
      Undecided.                  18%

Second District  428 respondents  Margin of Error +/- 4.7%. Became a swing district in the 1980s.
      French Hill (R inc)      49.5%
      Clarke Tucker (D).      40.5%
      Joe Swafford. (L)           2%
      Undecided                     8%

Third District  428 respondents Margin of Error +/- 4.7% Flipped to GOP in 1966
       Steve Womack (R inc) 53%
       Josh Mahony (D)          31%
       Michael Kalagias (L)       5%
       Undecided.                    11%

Fourth District 423 respondents Margin of Error +/- 4.7%. Last District to Flip in 2014
        Bruce Westerman (R inc) 54%
        Hayden Shamel (D).          24%
        Tom Canada (L)                   5%
        Undecided                          17%

This is disgraceful.

Arkansas needs to get with the program.

[Arkansas Yankee]

AR-2: Talk Business has Hill up 50/41.

Looks right. Damn shame though, Beebe would beat French Hill here.

You are dreaming!  

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

AR-2: Talk Business has Hill up 50/41.

Looks right. Damn shame though, Beebe would beat French Hill here.

You are dreaming!  

Half true. That Beebe would run, might as well a dream, that’s correct, the other part I think is right though.

[IceSpear]

AR-2: Talk Business has Hill up 50/41.

Boo

It's a lean R race, so about as expected.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Excited for Congresswoman Finkenauer 👍🏻

[Arkansas Yankee]

AR-2: Talk Business has Hill up 50/41.

Looks right. Damn shame though, Beebe would beat French Hill here.

You are dreaming!  

Half true. That Beebe would run, might as well a dream, that’s correct, the other part I think is right though.

We will have to agree to disagree. 

[IceSpear]

That AR-02 poll sure is...interesting. It has Democrats winning Faulkner County (Trump +31) but losing Pulaski County (Clinton +18). I am a tiny bit skeptical of this.

[Arkansas Yankee]

That AR-02 poll sure is...interesting. It has Democrats winning Faulkner County (Trump +31) but losing Pulaski County (Clinton +18). I am a tiny bit skeptical of this.

If you view the Brummett tape on this link, that issue is discussed:

https://talkbusiness.net

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yeah, Young is NOT leading by 16 points. If the GOP triaged the race their polls must be telling a different story.

[Skill and Chance]

Also, 15?? I can see 10, but 15? Hard to see occur in any scenario

That is assuming Dems do well and perhaps take the Senate this year. Suppose for example Dems pick up NV, AZ, and TN in 2018, and all the Dem incumbents hold on.

In that case, seats that could be lost in a hypothetical Republican 2024 wave include:

NV
AZ
TN
NM
MT
ND
MN
WI
MO
MI
IN
OH
WV
VA
PA
ME
FL

That is 17 seats, and not even counting the possibility of the Republicans picking up a seat in a normally safe Dem state (WA, CA, NJ, etc).

The most likely scenario for 2024 is Dems winning an 8th year itch election after 2 terms of Trump.  The 2nd most likely scenario is a 1st term Dem president winning a pretty easy reelection.  I don't think the dam will break for all of the Trump state Dems in Class I until 2030.  And it's likely that Dems would be able to contest many of the Southern and Plains states that dominate Class II by 2026 or 2032 depending on who holds the WH, which could cancel out the losses.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

AR-2: Talk Business has Hill up 50/41.

Looks right. Damn shame though, Beebe would beat French Hill here.

You are dreaming!  

Half true. That Beebe would run, might as well a dream, that’s correct, the other part I think is right though.

We will have to agree to disagree. 

I guess that's will have to be the case. I just honestly don't see how Beebe wouldn't be ahead 46-45 or even slightly more so. He is much stronger than Tucker, and I just have a hard time seeing him lose a seat that Tucker is 9 points behind in, and that Trump won by like 10. I think Beebe could easily shave off a few points from Hill and add a few points to the race for dems.

[Kodak]

Yeah, if the political winds break in the Dems favour then the Senate is obtainable.  RCP has 9 toss-ups; Dems winning 7/9 would put them at 51 seats.

This senate class is ridiculous by the way:

2000: Dems win 7/9.
2006: Dems win 8/9.
2012: Dems win 8/10.
2018: 9 toss-ups currently.

If that trend of Dems sweeping the Senate Class I seats happens again this year it'd be 4 cycles in a row for Dem blowouts.  (Reps swept 1994)

I was going based on Cook ratings, but yeah. If Democrats gain seats, it's probably going to be the most lopsided Senate class since the 1930s or maybe even since Reconstruction or maybe ever.

1932, 1936, and 1964 had more lopsided results than 2012. The Democrats need to net three seats to beat 1964's all-time record of 28 seats for one party.

[Zaybay]

Also, 15?? I can see 10, but 15? Hard to see occur in any scenario

That is assuming Dems do well and perhaps take the Senate this year. Suppose for example Dems pick up NV, AZ, and TN in 2018, and all the Dem incumbents hold on.

In that case, seats that could be lost in a hypothetical Republican 2024 wave include:

NV
AZ
TN
NM
MT
ND
MN
WI
MO
MI
IN
OH
WV
VA
PA
ME
FL

That is 17 seats, and not even counting the possibility of the Republicans picking up a seat in a normally safe Dem state (WA, CA, NJ, etc).

Sorry that it took me so long. Anyway, it seems that you just took the PVI of states(from 2016, no less) without considering the factors of the candidates, and the directions of the states.

NV- not likely. NV has been trending D, and it was able to avoid the waves of 2010, and 2014. In the scenario where Heller is defeated, the seat would be lean D, due to this.
AZ- same case with NV, the state is trending Blue, and its inelastic. Hard to see a pickup here.
TN-yes
NM-depends. The state is midelastic, so I can see a pickup, but the state is trending more D, and its becoming more and more inelastic. Best case, Ill give it to the Rs
MT-yes
ND-yes
MN-depends. The MNDEM party is one of the best in the US, and the rurals are open to voting for Ds. perhaps.
WI-see MN
MO-yes
MI-real depends, need to see 2020 to make a better guess
IN-yes
OH-yes
WV-yes
VA- This is NV on steroids. The state is trending D, and is as inelastic as the rest of the South. Probably wont flip
PA-If Casey runs again, no chance. Again, if he doesnt, it gets interesting, but hes still young, so Ill say he stays
ME- If Angus King stays, no chance. If he leaves, then it gets interesting. But the seat would still be favoured for the Ds, unless they go with a terrible choice(it is the MEDEMs)
FL-yes
So, overall
R flips: 8
Possible: 4

So really, 12 is around the max in a GOP wave.

[YE]

We're seriously trying to predict senate races in 2030 now. This is peak Atlas.

[Zaybay]

We're seriously trying to predict senate races in 2030 now. This is peak Atlas.

excuse me? Its 2024 races, good sir. Get it right.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

If the numbers in tonight's sample in the NYT poll of TX-23 hold up, there's no way the Dems keep the Senate in 2030.

[IceSpear]

If the numbers in tonight's sample in the NYT poll of TX-23 hold up, there's no way the Dems keep the Senate in 2030.

LOL. The best part of this post is that you genuinely can't tell if it's serious or satire.

[Florida Man for Crime]

I cut out the ones you agree Republicans could win in a GOP wave year, leaving these ones:

NV- not likely. NV has been trending D, and it was able to avoid the waves of 2010, and 2014. In the scenario where Heller is defeated, the seat would be lean D, due to this.
AZ- same case with NV, the state is trending Blue, and its inelastic. Hard to see a pickup here.
NM-depends. The state is midelastic, so I can see a pickup, but the state is trending more D, and its becoming more and more inelastic. Best case, Ill give it to the Rs
MN-depends. The MNDEM party is one of the best in the US, and the rurals are open to voting for Ds. perhaps.
WI-see MN
MI-real depends, need to see 2020 to make a better guess
VA- This is NV on steroids. The state is trending D, and is as inelastic as the rest of the South. Probably wont flip
PA-If Casey runs again, no chance. Again, if he doesnt, it gets interesting, but hes still young, so Ill say he stays
ME- If Angus King stays, no chance. If he leaves, then it gets interesting. But the seat would still be favoured for the Ds, unless they go with a terrible choice(it is the MEDEMs)

Remember we are talking about a hypothetical Republican wave year.

In 2010, Republicans won races even in states as Democratic as Massachusetts and Illinois. If they can win those in previous Republican wave years, I don't see why the states listed above are out of reach in potential future Republican wave years.

Let's take these in turn...


NV - Do you seriously think that if e.g. Brian Sandoval ran in a 2024 Republican wave, he would have no chance of winning Nevada?

AZ - Do you seriously think that it is not possible for Republicans to win Arizona in a 2024 Republican wave? You think Arizona will be such a safe Democratic state that it will be even safer and more unwinnable for Republicans in 2024 than Illinois was in 2010?

NM - Do you seriously think that Susanna Martinez would have no chance to win NM in a 2024 Republican wave? You can't even imagine the possibility that she could win?

MN - MN voted for the Clinton and has happily elected Republican Senators in the past such as Norm Coleman. You really think it is beyond the realm of reasonable possibility that a Republican could win MN in a Republican wave year?

WI - You think e.g. Scott Walker would have no shot whatsoever at winning a WI Senate race in a Republican wave year?

MI - MI elected a Republican Senator in the 1994 Republican wave, I am not sure sure why you would rule it out for a 2024 Republican wave given that it narrowly voted for Trump in 2016 and by 2024 Detroit is on course for even more population loss. Again, MI is safer Dem in 2024 than Illinois was in 2010?

VA - I agree this will probably be a tough one by that point. But just not possible? If Scott Brown could win VA, you think the perfect hypothetical VA Republican would have no shot even in a GOP wave year?

PA - You don't think that e.g. Brian Fitzpatrick could have a shot at winning PA in a Republican wave year? You are not unaware that Pat Toomey, and even in the past someone as unappealing as Rick Santorum have won PA Senate races?

ME - Regarding unbeatable flawless Angus King, lets say for the sake of argument that he is in fact unbeatable and flawless. OK, fine. Maybe he just decides to start caucusing with the Republicans instead. There you have your GOP pickup. Boom.

[Zaybay]

notice

Im not going to pollute the thread, so I made one in the debate tab, if you want to continue, my reply is there.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=301190.0

[Hindsight was 2020]

The Weekly standard has a polling model for the senate that has the Senate going 50-50 with Heidi as the only dem not favored to win
https://www.weeklystandard.com/swingseat-senate-election-model/?utm_source=reddit.com

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

The Weekly standard has a polling model for the senate that has the Senate going 50-50 with Heidi as the only dem not favored to win

Those morons also give Nelson an 84% chance of winning which is nuts, so I don't buy their thing.

[Zaybay]

The Weekly standard has a polling model for the senate that has the Senate going 50-50 with Heidi as the only dem not favored to win

Those morons also give Nelson an 84% chance of winning which is nuts, so I don't buy their thing.

No thats pretty sound. Its just taking the GCB, state lean, and other factors, and giving him the chance of winning of 84%. That doesnt mean he wins by a commanding lead, but that his chance of winning by any margin is high.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The generic ballot in Michigan is D+12. That is more than enough to flip the state legislature.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The generic ballot in Michigan is D+12. That is more than enough to flip the state legislature.

So I guess now we know what the next state to repeal "right-to-work" is.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

The generic ballot in Michigan is D+12. That is more than enough to flip the state legislature.

So I guess now we know what the next state to repeal "right-to-work" is.

What a laugh, the Michigan Senate is heavily, heavily, heavily gerrymandered with Dems being geographically packed into Detroit (with their base in the UP as well as Eastern Michigan drying up due to neglect). Any hopes of repealing RTW should be flushed down the toilet until the next redistricting which would hopefully correct things.