2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

GOP Internal: Barr +4.

Barr: 49%
McGrath: 45%

McGrath with +11 favorable rating.

http://www.congressionalleadershipfund.org/memo-ky-06-polling-update/

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

GOP Internal: Barr +4.

Barr: 49%
McGrath: 45%

McGrath with +11 favorable rating.

http://www.congressionalleadershipfund.org/memo-ky-06-polling-update/

Damn that was a fast turn around, lol. Not that I ever expected her to win by more than 5.

I still have a feeling that she will win though.

[IceSpear]

Anyone expecting McGrath to actually win by double digits in a district like that was off their rocker to begin with.

Toss up -> Toss up

[Politician]

MN-01
Harper Polling (Hagedorn internal)
400 Likely Voters

Jim Hagedorn (R)-47
Dan Feehan (D)-33

MOE +/- 4.9%

http://www.keyc.com/story/39041618/new-poll-has-hagedorn-ahead-of-feehan

I'm skeptical, but Hagedorn's name recognition probably does give him an edge right now, even if he does end up losing.

[Pollster]

GOP Internal: Barr +4.

Barr: 49%
McGrath: 45%

McGrath with +11 favorable rating.

http://www.congressionalleadershipfund.org/memo-ky-06-polling-update/

Regardless of the legitimacy of the findings, the language used in Bliss' memo is facetiously over the top.

[Predictor]

Here are polls for all 4 CD's in Utah, conducted by Lighthouse Research, commissioned by the Utah Debate Commission:

CD-1:

• Rob Bishop (R)- 51% +35
• Lee Castillo (D)- 16%

CD-2:

• Chris Stewart (R)- 49% +22
• Shireen Ghorbani (D)- 27%

CD-3:

• John Curtis (R)- 52% +32
• James Singer (D)- 20%

CD-4:

• Mia Love (R)- 48% +10
• Ben McAdams (D)-38%

Source: https://t.co/AzBvbeuBf4

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Here are polls for all 4 CD's in Utah, conducted by Lighthouse Research, commissioned by the Utah Debate Commission:

CD-1:

• Rob Bishop (R)- 51% +35
• Lee Castillo (D)- 16%

CD-2:

• Chris Stewart (R)- 49% +22
• Shireen Ghorbani (D)- 27%

CD-3:

• John Curtis (R)- 52% +32
• James Singer (D)- 20%

CD-4:

• Mia Love (R)- 48% +10
• Ben McAdams (D)-38%

Source: https://t.co/AzBvbeuBf4

Utah 4th has been quite disappointing, I won't lie. I thought we had an A grade recruit who was narrowly favored, and it has all but fizzled out.

[Politician]

Here are polls for all 4 CD's in Utah, conducted by Lighthouse Research, commissioned by the Utah Debate Commission:

CD-1:

• Rob Bishop (R)- 51% +35
• Lee Castillo (D)- 16%

CD-2:

• Chris Stewart (R)- 49% +22
• Shireen Ghorbani (D)- 27%

CD-3:

• John Curtis (R)- 52% +32
• James Singer (D)- 20%

CD-4:

• Mia Love (R)- 48% +10
• Ben McAdams (D)-38%

Source: https://t.co/AzBvbeuBf4

Utah 4th has been quite disappointing, I won't lie. I thought we had an A grade recruit who was narrowly favored, and it has all but fizzled out.

Mia Love is only up 2 points in the last poll. That is not "fizzling out".

[Zaybay]

Here are polls for all 4 CD's in Utah, conducted by Lighthouse Research, commissioned by the Utah Debate Commission:

CD-1:

• Rob Bishop (R)- 51% +35
• Lee Castillo (D)- 16%

CD-2:

• Chris Stewart (R)- 49% +22
• Shireen Ghorbani (D)- 27%

CD-3:

• John Curtis (R)- 52% +32
• James Singer (D)- 20%

CD-4:

• Mia Love (R)- 48% +10
• Ben McAdams (D)-38%

Source: https://t.co/AzBvbeuBf4

Utah 4th has been quite disappointing, I won't lie. I thought we had an A grade recruit who was narrowly favored, and it has all but fizzled out.

I always thought Ben was a weak candidate. He was just boring, and had no real appeal whatsoever. He still may win, but it will be because of the environment and Mia, not because of him.

[IceSpear]

UT-04 may be quirky, but it is still heavily Republican. It was always going to be a tough slog. I actually think McAdams is doing pretty well all things considered.

[Politician]

I couldn't help but notice Chris Stewart is under 50. #Ghorbanimentum, #NoSeatIsSafe.

[Strong Candidate]

UT-04
Dan Jones poll
400 Likely Voters

Mia Love (R-i) 49 (+2)
Ben McAdams (D) 46 (+3)

MOE +/- 4.9%

https://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/17703-poll-mia-love-has-a-3-point-lead-over-ben-mcadams-in-4th-district-matchup

FWIW, Dan Jones has been fairly accurate in recent Utah elections. In 2016 they had Love leading 51-38 (she won 54-41). In 2014 they had Love leading 48-43 (she won 51-46). Don't count this race out because of the debate commission poll.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

UT-04 may be quirky, but it is still heavily Republican. It was always going to be a tough slog. I actually think McAdams is doing pretty well all things considered.

[IceSpear]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Just like the Tennessee poll, this is pretty insane. The fact that a Republican can actually still lead despite being 40 points less popular than their Democratic opponent is pretty sad. People here vastly underestimate the partisan hackery of Republican voters (see sig.) By comparison, Scott Brown at +22 against Elizabeth Warren at +14 still kept it within single digits in one of the bluest states in the country.

[politicallefty]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Just like the Tennessee poll, this is pretty insane. The fact that a Republican can actually still lead despite being 40 points less popular than their Democratic opponent is pretty sad. People here vastly underestimate the partisan hackery of Republican voters (see sig.) By comparison, Scott Brown at +22 against Elizabeth Warren at +14 still kept it within single digits in one of the bluest states in the country.

I think the difference is that all of those other races were when the fundamentals of the environment were in line with the overall lean of the state. If Bredesen was running in a Republican year or even a neutral year, I absolutely agree that the lean of the state now would easily overwhelm any personal popularity. But the other factor is that the national environment has a considerable Democratic lean right now. It's that factor in addition to personal popularity that can overcome a state's partisan lean. Off the top of my head, IL-Sen 2010 comes to mind. And if Castle had won the Senate primary in Delaware in 2010, that'd potentially be another state you could add. At least TN Democrats had the common sense to nominate someone who could potentially win the state, unlike Delaware Republicans did in 2010.

I'm not saying we're going to win or lose TN-Sen. I agree with Cook that it's a toss-up. As for UT-04, not all of the district is in Salt Lake County. The parts outside the county are extremely Republican. Utah is really it's own thing in American politics. It's definitely winnable, but I don't recall anyone rating it as a toss-up.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Harris/Rasmussen (weekly), Sep. 4-7, 3000 registered voters including 1715 likely voters.

Among LV: D 49, R 39.  This is the first week they've gone to a LV screen, which is simply asking how likely the respondent is to vote; "definitely" = LV.

Among RV: D 43 (+1), R 36 (+1)


They also have House and Senate projections under different turnout models:

Good D turnout -

House: 238 D, 197 R
Senate: 52 D, 48 R

Baseline -

House: 210 R, 205 D, 20 Tossup
Senate: 49 R, 45 D, 6 Tossup

Good R turnout -

House: 236 R, 199 D
Senate: 56 R, 44 D

[Bumaye]

Harris/Rasmussen (weekly), Sep. 4-7, 3000 registered voters including 1715 likely voters.

Among LV: D 49, R 39.  This is the first week they've gone to a LV screen, which is simply asking how likely the respondent is to vote; "definitely" = LV.

Among RV: D 43 (+1), R 36 (+1)


They also have House and Senate projections under different turnout models:

Good D turnout -

House: 238 D, 197 R
Senate: 52 D, 48 R

Baseline -

House: 210 R, 205 D, 20 Tossup
Senate: 49 R, 45 D, 6 Tossup

Good R turnout -

House: 236 R, 199 D
Senate: 56 R, 44 D

I really didn't thought that likely voters would be better for the Democrats but then again that's where their enthusiasm advantage comes in to play. And it's a very good sign that Democrats could take both chambers with the baseline model.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/EmGusk/status/1038604825133506561

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/EmGusk/status/1038604825133506561

So, what is it about? The article is behind a paywall.

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/EmGusk/status/1038604825133506561

So, what is it about? The article is behind a paywall.

Would it be copyright infringement if I C and Ped the whole article?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/EmGusk/status/1038604825133506561

So, what is it about? The article is behind a paywall.

Use incognito mode.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

You can still read it if you use view source, but it will be formatted in a less user friendly way.

[adrac]

You can also delete the site's data in your browser.

[junior chįmp]

POLLS POLLS POLLS

https://mobile.twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1038878111025307650

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

POLLS POLLS POLLS

https://mobile.twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1038878111025307650

My guess is dem +7 in PA 7th, and Faso +2 in NY 19th.