2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please

[john cage bubblegum]

The generic vote in Indiana in 2016 was understated for Rs based on Hollingsworth’s underperformance

Not to mention, there was no R on the ballot in IN-01 (just Visclosky and a Libertarian), while Dems had candidates on ballot in every district.  Had there been a Republican challenger in IN-01, Rs would've won the popular vote in Indiana by 18-19 points or so.  R+5 is a fine generic ballot result for Dems in Indiana.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Coleman beating Holding 45-44 in her internal!


http://amp.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/article217851615.html?__twitter_impression=true

ps. sorry for the wrong link earlier.

[Devout Centrist]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1037446403021320197

Republicans won the house vote by 14 in 2016 and over 20 in 2014, for comparison.

As Indiana is R+9 in PVI, this shows that the nation is at D+4...not enough for a wave.

I don't think that's how it works, Republicans won Indiana's House elections in 2016 by 14.67%.  If right now it's R+5 then that's quite a swing.   I don't think they're comparing it to any national margin when they say R+5.

OK, even using House elections, the GOP (in raw votes) led by 1% throughout the nation in 2016, thus Indiana is about 13 points to the right of the nation. Thus, an  R+5 State GCB only translates to D+8 across the nation...not the double-digits everyone's been yapping about.

you failed math, right?

[Virginiá]

OK, even using House elections, the GOP (in raw votes) led by 1% throughout the nation in 2016, thus Indiana is about 13 points to the right of the nation. Thus, an  R+5 State GCB only translates to D+8 across the nation...not the double-digits everyone's been yapping about.

So... wait, are you agreeing that there will be a Democratic wave then? D+8 is absolutely a wave, and is likely to flip the House with seats to spare, not to mention the carnage at the state level. It's also a margin that many Atlas users generally agree on. Not "everyone" is "yapping" about double digit wins. I think there are a couple users off the top of my head who think we'll get there, but most of the time I just recall people (like myself) suggesting that low double digits, like D+10, seems possible in this environment, but not necessarily the most likely situation.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

An internal for a Pennsylvania Democratic state rep candidate running for HD-38 has Lamb with a 13-point lead over Rothfus

Lamb (D): 54%
Rothfus (R): 41%

Also worth noting the Dem candidate, Lindsey Williams, whom the poll was commissioned for, has a 9-point advantage over the Republican candidate. It's a Clinton +0.5 district and is R-held, so blue wave in the PA state legislature looking likely. North Hills is a suburban area north of Pittsburgh, so this is another sign the suburbs are drastically moving away from the GOP.

Trump approval in the district is 37-58% disapprove



https://www.pghcitypaper.com/pittsburgh/internal-poll-shows-democrat-state-senate-nominee-lindsey-williams-with-9-point-lead-over-republican-jeremy-shaffer/Content?oid=10458165

[OneJ]

Coleman beating Holding 45-44 in her internal!


http://amp.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/article217851615.html?__twitter_impression=true

ps. sorry for the wrong link earlier.

I’m trying not to allow myself to get excited as we have two months left and this isn’t a great internal, but if Holding is “supposedly” not doing good in his internals either then I guess it could cautiously be taken as good news.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1037708285770719235

[Devout Centrist]

If the challenger is leading polls this far out...not good!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Where’s that Marist poll we were promised over an hour ago?

[Ebsy]

Where’s that Marist poll we were promised over an hour ago?

I think they usually release them at 5 eastern.

[Tender Branson]

Where’s that Marist poll we were promised over an hour ago?

They get released at 5pm Eastern, which is 11pm here.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Where’s that Marist poll we were promised over an hour ago?

They get released at 5pm Eastern, which is 11pm here.

For some reason I thought they were releasing it at 10...

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Yeah, not bad, this points to Craig winning, but I would have wanted something a little better.

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1037689888919961602

[GeorgiaModerate]

538 has changed their GCB tracker to be less aggressive to swingy changes:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-a-new-less-volatile-version-of-our-generic-ballot-tracker/

[Ebsy]

Yeah, not bad, this points to Craig winning, but I would have wanted something a little better.

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1037689888919961602

Yikes! Lean D at this point.

[libertpaulian]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1037708285770719235

N U T

[Pollster]

Here is the VanOstran poll, from Expedition Strategies

[Florida Man for Crime]

NALEO/Latino Decisions is starting a weekly tracking poll which has Generic Congressional ballot (for Latinos/Hispanics only)

http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2018/09/05/new-poll-finds-latino-voters-still-ignored-in-lead-up-to-election-2018/

http://www.latinodecisions.com/files/7915/3616/8320/LD-NALEO_2018_tracker_-_Week_1.pdf


Dem 63
Rep 21

Among likely voters ("Almost certain I will vote"):

Dem 70
Rep 22



Also, 67% say it is more important to vote in 2018 than it was in 2014.

[MT Treasurer]

ND-AL: Kelly Armstrong (R) internal shows him leading Mac Schneider (D) by 21 points:



Trump approval: 59/37 (+22)

Armstrong leading 63-20 in the Bismarck-Minot media market and 45-42 in Fargo-Grand Forks.

[Politician]

ND - Kelly Armstrong (R) internal showis him leading Schneider (D) by 21 points:



Trump approval: 59/37 (+22)

Armstrong leading 63-20 in the Bismarck-Minot media market and 45-42 in Fargo-Grand Forks.

Likely R, but Andrew will probably say "Horrible poll for Heitkamp" or something stupid like that. This race is totally different than ND-SEN (a "standard" Democrat in a red district.)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

NALEO/Latino Decisions is starting a weekly tracking poll which has Generic Congressional ballot (for Latinos/Hispanics only)

http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2018/09/05/new-poll-finds-latino-voters-still-ignored-in-lead-up-to-election-2018/

http://www.latinodecisions.com/files/7915/3616/8320/LD-NALEO_2018_tracker_-_Week_1.pdf


Dem 63
Rep 21

Among likely voters ("Almost certain I will vote"):

Dem 70
Rep 22



Also, 67% say it is more important to vote in 2018 than it was in 2014.

That has got to be a new low for the GOP in their hispanic support.

[Devils30]

Call me skeptical that Florida hispanics are going to save the GOP.

[Zaybay]

Call me skeptical that Florida hispanics are going to save the GOP.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

According to the CNN exit poll for the national house race in 2014, the GOP won 36% of the hispanic vote, so this is a major erosion in their latino support.

[Beet]

Latino Decisions is already discredited, they claimed Trump only won 15% of the Hispanic vote in 2016, which by their own polling he is doing 40% better than that now. But our own reagente's county map calculations suggest the 2016 number is closer to 26%, and exit polls had 34%. And yes, Florida Hispanics will save the GOP. The Republicans got the golden ticket with DeSantis/Nunez while Gillum/King is the other side.