CPRM, Pt 3: LA 11/6

[MAINEiac4434]

Can someone explain to me why Shalala is considered so terrible by Democrats and Republicans on this forum alike?

Too old, won't be able to hold the seat for many terms.

She's also a literal union-buster, and literally led the Clinton Foundation.

[Jeppe]

Ann Kirkpatrick is returning to Congress. She’s ahead of Matt Heinz by 10% (and 6,000 votes).

*600

It’s 6,000 now. Pima reported and went for Kirkpatrick.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Dems just beat their 2014 primary turnout result.

GOP beat them by 202K in 2014, they're leading them by 75K this year.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The big contest is over:

Senate
Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Martha McSally
196,452   51.4%   
Kelli Ward
109,105   28.6   
Joe Arpaio
76,517   20.0   
382,074 votes, 3% reporting (49 of 1,489 precincts)

[NOVA Green]

So basically "racist and crooked Sheriff Joe" is left licking the backside of an Elephants Arse, even in his traditional strongholds of Maricopa County (Based on EV County Level Data Only), despite the President's pardon.... still curious about precinct level results in EV/ED Maricopa, but I strongly suspect "Sheriff Joe" will see an increased collapse in numbers once the ED votes come in Statewide.

[tmthforu94]

Most interested in AZ-01 - hopefully Smith defeats Dirty Wendy, though stays with GOP regardless.

[Matty]

Great win for McSally.

Looks like she ran up giant margins in the suburbs.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Will McSally win her CD in the senate GE? I say she will very narrowly.

[Nyvin]

Will McSally win her CD in the senate GE? I say she will very narrowly.

I would think so, but her problem will be the larger phoenix metro.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

McSally has to deal with a divided base, Sinema doesn't with her 82% of the vote so far. It's clear who has the upper hand in this battle entering the GE.

[IceSpear]

Ann Kirkpatrick is returning to Congress. She’s ahead of Matt Heinz by 10% (and 6,000 votes).

Good, Heinz is awful and already got BTFO once.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Will McSally win her CD in the senate GE? I say she will very narrowly.

I would think so, but her problem will be the larger phoenix metro.

Exactly my thoughts, we did a great job picking an A lister from Maricopa, McSally is good as a candidate too, but I think her not being from Maricopa is a minus for the GOP.

[Beet]

McSally has to deal with a divided base, Sinema doesn't with her 82% of the vote so far. It's clear who has the upper hand in this battle entering the GE.

More like, the primary has made McSally look moderate. I thought Sinema will win, but I'm not confident about it anymore.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

McSally has to deal with a divided base, Sinema doesn't with her 82% of the vote so far. It's clear who has the upper hand in this battle entering the GE.

More like, the primary has made McSally look moderate. I thought Sinema will win, but I'm not confident about it anymore.

Are you kidding me? She walked BACK on her support of DACA to match Ward and Arpaio. In what way did the primary make her look "moderate"? On the other hand, Sinema didn't have to pander to either the left or the right.

[krazen1211]

I hope McSally wins in November!

[Nyvin]

McSally has to deal with a divided base, Sinema doesn't with her 82% of the vote so far. It's clear who has the upper hand in this battle entering the GE.

More like, the primary has made McSally look moderate. I thought Sinema will win, but I'm not confident about it anymore.

Arizona voters really don't want moderate.

[Adam Griffin]

I'm guessing that unless turnout was super high, there's not much more than 50-100k votes left (despite what NYT and Politico say; AZ results are already screwed up in terms of how they get classified wrt precincts reporting). Based on how other states have been turning out, 700-800k votes would seem like an average turnout here.

[IceSpear]

Will McSally win her CD in the senate GE? I say she will very narrowly.

I would think so, but her problem will be the larger phoenix metro.

If Sinema loses a Clinton +5 district, she isn't gonna win statewide.

McSally is absolutely obliterating Ward and Arpaio despite the delusions of a few people here. If Sinema wants to win this race she needs to get serious. Stop the lame biographical moderate hero ads and go for blood before it's too late.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

More calls:

Governor

Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
David Garcia
146,763   48.3%   
Steve Farley
106,635   35.1   
Kelly Fryer
50,706   16.7   
304,104 votes, 3% reporting (49 of 1,489 precincts)

Treasurer
Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Kimberly Yee
198,678   57.7%   
Jo Ann Sabbagh
145,640   42.3   
344,318 votes, 3% reporting (49 of 1,489 precincts)

[NOVA Green]

Will McSally win her CD in the senate GE? I say she will very narrowly.

I would think so, but her problem will be the larger phoenix metro.

That is the key part of problem....

Playing to the Right in the Primary might have helped her win in a Three Person contest, but there are so many Registered Indies in Metro Phoenix that have been moving against the Republican Primary in the Trump era....

We'll see how this all plays in November, but although McSally might have threaded the needle to win the battle, it's difficult to see how she wins the GE War, especially bruised and battled from the Primary with the Cray-Cray 'Pubs she ran against.

As I have been posting for almost two years now, key swings in AZ between '12 and '16 at the US-PRES were more a factor of massive Anglo swings, and to a slightly lesser extent a "Latino Surge"....

[Webnicz]

McSally pivoting HARD tonight. boucinging allll the way  to basically feminist in her speech. Seems like the GOP has realized they have to start moving left to win here.

[Beet]

McSally has to deal with a divided base, Sinema doesn't with her 82% of the vote so far. It's clear who has the upper hand in this battle entering the GE.

More like, the primary has made McSally look moderate. I thought Sinema will win, but I'm not confident about it anymore.

Are you kidding me? She walked BACK on her support of DACA to match Ward and Arpaio. In what way did the primary make her look "moderate"? On the other hand, Sinema didn't have to pander to either the left or the right.

Sinema is a moderate white Democratic woman, like Gwen Graham and Hillary Clinton. Usually these types choke in close elections. Come to think of it, I'm changing my prediction for this race.

[SATW]

mwahahahahahahaha! GOODBYE LOW-ENERGY KELLI WARD AND LOW-LIFE LOSER JOE ARPAIO!

[Gass3268]

Will McSally win her CD in the senate GE? I say she will very narrowly.

I would think so, but her problem will be the larger phoenix metro.

If Sinema loses a Clinton +5 district, she isn't gonna win statewide.

McSally is absolutely obliterating Ward and Arpaio despite the delusions of a few people here. If Sinema wants to win this race she needs to get serious. Stop the lame biographical moderate hero ads and go for blood before it's too late.

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People need to know the bolded part.

Source

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

mwahahahahahahaha! GOODBYE LOW-ENERGY KELLI WARD AND LOW-LIFE LOSER JOE ARPAIO!