CPRM, Pt 3: LA 11/6

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Case's vote on SSM isn't surprising, he's basically one of those irritating "socially liberal, fiscally conservative" types.

But that's still preferable to Mercado Kim, who is a female Asian Dan Lipinski, or Chin, who is even worse.

[Zaybay]

Alright, it seems that every candidate we thought would win did win and it was rather booring.
My thoughts

Gov- This race really had no difference between the candidate, and became more of a race about the handling of the missile crisis, which it seems most voters forgave. But Hanabusa going for that seat meant that HI-01 was open.

HI-01- This race really had no good ending, it was just a terrible cast of characters. But Case may have been 2nd best, IMO. Hes a rather weak candidate, and is easy to primary, meaning he can be replaced, while the others would have been hard to replace and would have done much more damage in the house than a BD ever could. And, again, I have to update the list in the "Blue Dog" thread.

HI-02- I dont like Gabbard, and she won, which was unsurprising. Nothing really to say here.

Basically, disappointing, but Tuesday should have some better races, and some more hi-jinx in store.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Results from the races I did not project last night:

Senate
Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Ron Curtis
6,365   23.7%   
Consuelo Anderson
5,166   19.3   
Robert Helsham
3,988   14.9   
Thomas White
3,657   13.6   
Roque De La Fuente
3,060   11.4   
George Berish
1,658   6.2   
Michael Hodgkiss
1,575   5.9   
Eddie Pirkowski
1,357   5.1   
26,826 votes, 100% reporting (249 of 249 precincts)

Senate
Nonpartisan Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Arturo Reyes
440   38.1%   
Charlie Haverty
415   35.9   
Matthew Maertens
300   26.0   
1,155 votes, 100% reporting (249 of 249 precincts)

Governor
Nonpartisan Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Terrence Teruya
542   47.8%   
Selina Blackwell
494   43.6   
Link El
98   8.6   
1,134 votes, 100% reporting (249 of 249 precincts)

District 1
Nonpartisan Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Calvin Griffin
265   58.8%   
John Cipolla
186   41.2   
451 votes, 100% reporting (115 of 115 precincts)

Lieutenant Governor

Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Josh Green
74,819   31.4%   
Jill Tokuda
68,107   28.6   
Bernard Carvalho
45,802   19.2   
Kim Iwamoto
34,218   14.4   
Will Espero
15,459   6.5   
238,405 votes, 100% reporting (249 of 249 precincts)


Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Marissa Kerns
9,749   35.4%   
Steve Lipscomb
9,538   34.7   
Jeremy Low
8,224   29.9   
27,511 votes, 100% reporting (249 of 249 precincts)

Nonpartisan Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Paul Robotti
535   50.7%   
Ernest Magaoay
521   49.3   
1,056 votes, 100% reporting (249 of 249 precincts)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Updating the Amazing Senate Primary Turnout Map, 201,604 people voted in Hirono's uncontested primary, while 26,826 people voted in the Republican Primary. This comes out to Democrats receiving 88% of the Primary Vote!

[Progressive Pessimist]

Congratulations to the smug Moderate Heroes on Atlas for scoring the worst Democratic congressional delegation in the country.

[Zaybay]

Congratulations to the smug Moderate Heroes on Atlas for scoring the worst Democratic congressional delegation in the country.

[libertpaulian]

Congratulations to the smug Moderate Heroes on Atlas for scoring the worst Democratic congressional delegation in the country.

Tulsi is a progressive.  You guys should be happy.

[Zaybay]

Congratulations to the smug Moderate Heroes on Atlas for scoring the worst Democratic congressional delegation in the country.

Tulsi is a progressive.  You guys should be happy.

Her?! Shes a Russia apologist and has a terrible record! She may be for single-payer, and a member of the progressive caucus, but shes very conservative on other issues. Most progressives here were cheering for Sheery.

[CookieDamage]

No, sir. I hope that US is a clever country. An idiots, like those in DSA, usually don't win too much in clever countries)))). Sometimes, somewhere - yes. But - not more.

You know socialism is not going away anytime soon? We've scored wins in the VA State House (Lee Carter), primary wins in the PA State House (Sara Innamorato, Summer Lee), AOC in New York and Rashida Tlaib in Michigan.

So what, the centrists got Ed Case tonight. There's going to be DSA members in congress in January, probably going to be a sizable socialist caucus in Congress by 2020, and plenty of wins for the left on the state legislative level. The Blue Dogs have been disappearing from the halls of Congress with each election cycle, and not a whole lot of them are gonna get elected in November. The "pasokification" we've seen in Europe, the decline of the centre-left, is occurring in America right now. The New Dem strategy crashed and burned in 2016, and we saw the rise of a right-wing populist movement in America. We've also seen the rise of a new left-wing movement in America.

I think Democrats are gonna excel in 2018 without a cohesive ideology or party leader for its voters to get behind, but just wait until those 2020 primaries start. Whoever emerges from that 20-candidate pileup that's bound to occur will be the face of the Democratic Party, and most of the candidates running in downballot races are going to be influenced by the policies that presidential candidate supports. Don't believe me, look at Trump and the Republican Party. GOP voters can't get enough of him, and GOP politicians are standing by him and supporting his policies and cabinet picks without hesitation.

Spoiler alert: that candidate is not gonna be a Joe Manchin or Andrew Cuomo "sensible moderate" type. It's either going to be one of Sanders, Warren, Gillibrand, Harris, Booker or even Brown. Because what kind of Democratic Party where a majority of its members support single-payer healthcare, free college, a $15/hr min. wage or even a federal job guarantee is going to support centrism for the sake of centrism?

Not every candidate AOC endorses will win, just like not every young Democrat hotshot that has the support of the DCCC will win this year. Or that not every Blue Dog will win this year by virtue of their glorious, invalauble C E N T R I S M. Parties and movements have wins and losses, and the DSA is a fledgling movement. But socialists have won primaries and even general elections against Republicans across America, since last year. So I wouldn't say that AOC's win was a fluke in the Bronx. It is a part of a growing progressive socialist movement in America that continues to gain ground with each passing day.

Y'all. Until I see candidates actively supporting an end to capitalism and a beginning of a democratically controlled economy and classless society, I am not calling them socialists. AOC, Kaniela Ing, Bernie, Rashida Tlaib, and the like are much closer to Social Dems then they are to even "moderate" socialists.

Stop conflating the two because it's honestly starting to get embarrassing watching people change their avis to maroon and claim how socialist the Democratic party is becoming. If anything it's becoming a Social Democratic party. Real heavy socialists see the Democrats as anathema to a classless, equal society where capitalism is replaced by something different.

[Zaybay]

No, sir. I hope that US is a clever country. An idiots, like those in DSA, usually don't win too much in clever countries)))). Sometimes, somewhere - yes. But - not more.

You know socialism is not going away anytime soon? We've scored wins in the VA State House (Lee Carter), primary wins in the PA State House (Sara Innamorato, Summer Lee), AOC in New York and Rashida Tlaib in Michigan.

So what, the centrists got Ed Case tonight. There's going to be DSA members in congress in January, probably going to be a sizable socialist caucus in Congress by 2020, and plenty of wins for the left on the state legislative level. The Blue Dogs have been disappearing from the halls of Congress with each election cycle, and not a whole lot of them are gonna get elected in November. The "pasokification" we've seen in Europe, the decline of the centre-left, is occurring in America right now. The New Dem strategy crashed and burned in 2016, and we saw the rise of a right-wing populist movement in America. We've also seen the rise of a new left-wing movement in America.

I think Democrats are gonna excel in 2018 without a cohesive ideology or party leader for its voters to get behind, but just wait until those 2020 primaries start. Whoever emerges from that 20-candidate pileup that's bound to occur will be the face of the Democratic Party, and most of the candidates running in downballot races are going to be influenced by the policies that presidential candidate supports. Don't believe me, look at Trump and the Republican Party. GOP voters can't get enough of him, and GOP politicians are standing by him and supporting his policies and cabinet picks without hesitation.

Spoiler alert: that candidate is not gonna be a Joe Manchin or Andrew Cuomo "sensible moderate" type. It's either going to be one of Sanders, Warren, Gillibrand, Harris, Booker or even Brown. Because what kind of Democratic Party where a majority of its members support single-payer healthcare, free college, a $15/hr min. wage or even a federal job guarantee is going to support centrism for the sake of centrism?

Not every candidate AOC endorses will win, just like not every young Democrat hotshot that has the support of the DCCC will win this year. Or that not every Blue Dog will win this year by virtue of their glorious, invalauble C E N T R I S M. Parties and movements have wins and losses, and the DSA is a fledgling movement. But socialists have won primaries and even general elections against Republicans across America, since last year. So I wouldn't say that AOC's win was a fluke in the Bronx. It is a part of a growing progressive socialist movement in America that continues to gain ground with each passing day.

Y'all. Until I see candidates actively supporting an end to capitalism and a beginning of a democratically controlled economy and classless society, I am not calling them socialists. AOC, Kaniela Ing, Bernie, Rashida Tlaib, and the like are much closer to Social Dems then they are to even "moderate" socialists.

Stop conflating the two because it's honestly starting to get embarrassing watching people change their avis to maroon and claim how socialist the Democratic party is becoming. If anything it's becoming a Social Democratic party. Real heavy socialists see the Democrats as anathema to a classless, equal society where capitalism is replaced by something different.

Its American Socialism, which is Social Democracy. Thats just how Right the Ovetone window is.

[Doimper]

Congratulations to the smug Moderate Heroes on Atlas for scoring the worst Democratic congressional delegation in the country.

Tulsi is a progressive.  You guys should be happy.

lol

[ON Progressive]

Congratulations to the smug Moderate Heroes on Atlas for scoring the worst Democratic congressional delegation in the country.

Tulsi is a progressive.  You guys should be happy.

Tulsi Gabbard's DW-NOMINATE score is more conservative than 80% of the Democratic House Caucus.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Tulsi is not a conservative. She is not a progressive either. She's an opportunist, who changes the color of her jacket depending on what's in fashion.

[Badger]

Dems outvoting Republicans 56-43 in MO-02. Caveats about primary turnout, but that seems very strong for Democrats in a seat like MO-02.

yes ahahahah!!

We are going to defeat Ann Wagner!!!!!!!

Wagner was for all purposes essentially unopposed, so...

[Badger]

Matt Morgan is claiming victory in his MI-01 D write-in bid, though we may not know officially for weeks.

UPPER MICHIGAN (WLUC) - Democrat Matt Morgan says unofficial vote counts from Tuesday's primary show he will be on the ballot to face Republican Rep. Jack Bergman in November's general election.

According to Morgan's campaign, unofficial vote counts from 20 counties in the 32-county district indicate there were 20,000-plus write-in votes cast in the Democratic race for Congress. Morgan is the only candidate running as a write-in. Grand Traverse County alone had well over 7,000 write-in votes cast for a Democrat in Michigan’s 1st Congressional District. In 2014, zero write-in votes were cast in Grand Traverse County in that race.

In a formula set by the State of Michigan, Morgan must receive at least five percent of the total ballots cast in the race with the most votes in the Democratic primary in Michigan’s 1st. For example, if this year’s gubernatorial race had 100,000 votes cast (which would be up 30-plus percent from historic midterm primary averages), the threshold for Morgan to make the general election ballot would be 5,000.

http://www.uppermichiganssource.com/content/news/Morgan--490332281.html

Great news. This district is a long shot (putting it mildly) but it's still nice to have a warm body there just in case.

That's what I've heard, but I wonder how. The seat had a democratic representative up to 2010 after all. It seems like it would be the perfect place for Blue Collar resentment against Trump to Bubble over in a wave year.

[Badger]

Thankfully Kansas has a sore loser law, otherwise we'd be seeing an independent run for the Sanders candidate.

WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG!

-tweet-

Not to mention Ocasio-Cortez's endorsement of Davids on Twitter.

I love this narrative that Sanders supporters refuse to unite behind the general election candidate when we have large parts of the Democratic establishment in Maryland refusing to campaign with or endorse Jealous, and a LITERAL INDEPENDENT RUN from a centrist Democrat against Marc Elrich in the Mont. County race in the same state.

Montgomery County resident here. Let me calm your fears about Nancy Floreen, there's a zero percent chance Elrich isn't going to be the next Montgomery County Executive. Nobody likes Floreen, people here are partisan and aren't going to vote for a centrist spoiler.

How low Montgomery county has fallen)))) Not long ago it elected a sensible politicians of all sorts (sometimes - even sensible Republicans of very sane variety). Now it's simply a hyperparisan army of "bold progressives", who doesn't know, how to think, and simply press one familiar button))))))

The smugness of moderate heroism is reeking out of this post.

Thank you, Sir! I expected exactly this from "proud socialist"))))

World's Last semi liberal Republican, in that I think Kasich is a bit too conservative for me, and I also can't avoid the reeking of moderate hero smugness here. Just saying.

[jamestroll]

Dems outvoting Republicans 56-43 in MO-02. Caveats about primary turnout, but that seems very strong for Democrats in a seat like MO-02.

yes ahahahah!!

We are going to defeat Ann Wagner!!!!!!!

Wagner was for all purposes essentially unopposed, so...

If Wagner wins re-election I will absolutely go insane .... you know how I get when I am crazy!

I want that witch out of office!

[smoltchanov]

Thankfully Kansas has a sore loser law, otherwise we'd be seeing an independent run for the Sanders candidate.

WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG!

-tweet-

Not to mention Ocasio-Cortez's endorsement of Davids on Twitter.

I love this narrative that Sanders supporters refuse to unite behind the general election candidate when we have large parts of the Democratic establishment in Maryland refusing to campaign with or endorse Jealous, and a LITERAL INDEPENDENT RUN from a centrist Democrat against Marc Elrich in the Mont. County race in the same state.

Montgomery County resident here. Let me calm your fears about Nancy Floreen, there's a zero percent chance Elrich isn't going to be the next Montgomery County Executive. Nobody likes Floreen, people here are partisan and aren't going to vote for a centrist spoiler.

How low Montgomery county has fallen)))) Not long ago it elected a sensible politicians of all sorts (sometimes - even sensible Republicans of very sane variety). Now it's simply a hyperparisan army of "bold progressives", who doesn't know, how to think, and simply press one familiar button))))))

The smugness of moderate heroism is reeking out of this post.

Thank you, Sir! I expected exactly this from "proud socialist"))))

World's Last semi liberal Republican, in that I think Kasich is a bit too conservative for me, and I also can't avoid the reeking of moderate hero smugness here. Just saying.

Being slightly more liberal then Kasich, IMHO, is NOT enough to make you a "semi liberal Republican", sir. To deserve such honor you must be Charles Mathias at least, and, sir, you are not Charles Mathias)))))

[Badger]

Thankfully Kansas has a sore loser law, otherwise we'd be seeing an independent run for the Sanders candidate.

WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG!

-tweet-

Not to mention Ocasio-Cortez's endorsement of Davids on Twitter.

I love this narrative that Sanders supporters refuse to unite behind the general election candidate when we have large parts of the Democratic establishment in Maryland refusing to campaign with or endorse Jealous, and a LITERAL INDEPENDENT RUN from a centrist Democrat against Marc Elrich in the Mont. County race in the same state.

Montgomery County resident here. Let me calm your fears about Nancy Floreen, there's a zero percent chance Elrich isn't going to be the next Montgomery County Executive. Nobody likes Floreen, people here are partisan and aren't going to vote for a centrist spoiler.

How low Montgomery county has fallen)))) Not long ago it elected a sensible politicians of all sorts (sometimes - even sensible Republicans of very sane variety). Now it's simply a hyperparisan army of "bold progressives", who doesn't know, how to think, and simply press one familiar button))))))

The smugness of moderate heroism is reeking out of this post.

Thank you, Sir! I expected exactly this from "proud socialist"))))

World's Last semi liberal Republican, in that I think Kasich is a bit too conservative for me, and I also can't avoid the reeking of moderate hero smugness here. Just saying.

Being slightly more liberal then Kasich, IMHO, is NOT enough to make you a "semi liberal Republican", sir. To deserve such honor you must be Charles Mathias at least, and, sir, you are not Charles Mathias)))))

er, thank you I think?

[Holmes]

Dems outvoting Republicans 56-43 in MO-02. Caveats about primary turnout, but that seems very strong for Democrats in a seat like MO-02.

yes ahahahah!!

We are going to defeat Ann Wagner!!!!!!!

Wagner was for all purposes essentially unopposed, so...

So? The Senate Republican primary was competitive(ish), Republicans turned out for that.

[Badger]

Dems outvoting Republicans 56-43 in MO-02. Caveats about primary turnout, but that seems very strong for Democrats in a seat like MO-02.

yes ahahahah!!

We are going to defeat Ann Wagner!!!!!!!

Wagner was for all purposes essentially unopposed, so...

So? The Senate Republican primary was competitive(ish), Republicans turned out for that.

I'd forgotten about that. Still, as you say, only competitive ish.

Not a fan of Wagner to put it mildly when one considers her gay bashing tv ads in Prior races. Let's just say I'm not letting myself get absorbed into irrational enthusiasm quite yet.

[Adam Griffin]

It's here!

Here's Griff's patented Election Day Hysteria Generator!

Have fun

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[IceSpear]

Looks like Paul Ryan campaigned for his body double.



Aww, they even color coordinated their wardrobe! How adorable.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Did he grow Bryan Steil in a Petri dish?

[Devout Centrist]

It's here!

Here's Griff's patented Election Day Hysteria Generator!

Have fun

You must be logged in to read this quote.