CPRM, Pt 3: LA 11/6

[Zaybay]

The way I see it, there are 4 branches of the D party at this point, Conservative, Liberal, Progressive, and DS.

What is a "Conservative"? People like Dianne Feinstein? Then i will have a very good laugh...

Joe Donnelly
Heidi Heitkamp
Joe Manchin

Nothing conservative. Center to Left-of-center people. I would understand if someone would call Boren or McIntyre or Matheson "a conservative", but only barely with adjective "moderate" before this word. The last Democrat i could simply call a "conservative" was, probably, Ralph Hall

Then it may be your definition of "Conservative" that is messed up, because these guys are not center-left, they are center/center-tilt-right, which is the Conservative faction of the Dems.

Among "Present day Democrats" that may be "right", but only among "present day". On a general common idrological scale they are not "conservative" at all...

Well, depends on what scale you use, world scale, yes, french scale, yes, spanish scale, yes, british scale, yes, Russian scale, no, American scale, no, Romanian scale no.

I think thats the big problem, the fact that we come from different nations with different political climates hampers our abilities as pundits(cause thats what we technically all are). I would have no idea what impacts candidate is Britain, and what strengths and weaknesses exist there, but I do for the US. Same for me trying to guess Russian Politics, which I would rather get from you than from figuring it out on my own.

Anyway, to use the American scale, all that were listed are in the center of the current overtone window, which makes them Conservatives for the Dems. On a world scale, which goes from the most Left of Left to the most Right of Right, they are Center-Right, while the Dems are Centrist, tilting a bit center-Left.

[136or142]

The way I see it, there are 4 branches of the D party at this point, Conservative, Liberal, Progressive, and DS.

What is a "Conservative"? People like Dianne Feinstein? Then i will have a very good laugh...

Joe Donnelly
Heidi Heitkamp
Joe Manchin

Nothing conservative. Center to Left-of-center people. I would understand if someone would call Boren or McIntyre or Matheson "a conservative", but only barely with adjective "moderate" before this word. The last Democrat i could simply call a "conservative" was, probably, Ralph Hall

Then it may be your definition of "Conservative" that is messed up, because these guys are not center-left, they are center/center-tilt-right, which is the Conservative faction of the Dems.

Among "Present day Democrats" that may be "right", but only among "present day". On a general common idrological scale they are not "conservative" at all...

The days when the Republicans had a liberal faction and the Democrats had a conservative faction are long gone.

If so - almost any interest to study US politics evaporates almost immediately. It's boring when one party is an army of Barbara Lee clones, another - Jim Jordan's

I never wrote or implied any such thing. Take a look at the debates here, there is still a lot of diversity in the Democratic Party and even still some in the Republican Party.  There should be a lot more in the Republican Party but they're so top down and authoritarian that the likes of a Justin Amash who actually stands up for his beliefs (whether common sensical or goofy) is very rare.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTIONS - MI:

U.S. House District 11 »
Democratic Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Haley Stevens
23,997   27.0%
Tim Greimel
19,317   21.8
Suneel Gupta
18,873   21.3
Fayrouz Saad
17,294   19.5
Nancy Skinner
9,234   10.4
88,715 votes, 100% reporting (291 of 291 precincts)

Republican Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Lena Epstein
26,119   30.7%
Rocky Raczkowski
21,618   25.4
Mike Kowall
15,761   18.6
Klint Kesto
11,879   14.0
Kerry Bentivolio
9,584   11.3
84,961 votes, 100% reporting (291 of 291 precincts)

[smoltchanov]

The way I see it, there are 4 branches of the D party at this point, Conservative, Liberal, Progressive, and DS.

What is a "Conservative"? People like Dianne Feinstein? Then i will have a very good laugh...

Joe Donnelly
Heidi Heitkamp
Joe Manchin

Nothing conservative. Center to Left-of-center people. I would understand if someone would call Boren or McIntyre or Matheson "a conservative", but only barely with adjective "moderate" before this word. The last Democrat i could simply call a "conservative" was, probably, Ralph Hall

Then it may be your definition of "Conservative" that is messed up, because these guys are not center-left, they are center/center-tilt-right, which is the Conservative faction of the Dems.

Among "Present day Democrats" that may be "right", but only among "present day". On a general common idrological scale they are not "conservative" at all...

Well, depends on what scale you use, world scale, yes, french scale, yes, spanish scale, yes, british scale, yes, Russian scale, no, American scale, no, Romanian scale no.

I think thats the big problem, the fact that we come from different nations with different political climates hampers our abilities as pundits(cause thats what we technically all are). I would have no idea what impacts candidate is Britain, and what strengths and weaknesses exist there, but I do for the US. Same for me trying to guess Russian Politics, which I would rather get from you than from figuring it out on my own.

Anyway, to use the American scale, all that were listed are in the center of the current overtone window, which makes them Conservatives for the Dems. On a world scale, which goes from the most Left of Left to the most Right of Right, they are Center-Right, while the Dems are Centrist, tilting a bit center-Left.

Well, with my views i would be centrist in US, but in Russia i am absolute right-winger...... But i still insist on Center-left (slightly) for the above mentioned people.))))

[Zaybay]

The way I see it, there are 4 branches of the D party at this point, Conservative, Liberal, Progressive, and DS.

What is a "Conservative"? People like Dianne Feinstein? Then i will have a very good laugh...

Joe Donnelly
Heidi Heitkamp
Joe Manchin

Nothing conservative. Center to Left-of-center people. I would understand if someone would call Boren or McIntyre or Matheson "a conservative", but only barely with adjective "moderate" before this word. The last Democrat i could simply call a "conservative" was, probably, Ralph Hall

Then it may be your definition of "Conservative" that is messed up, because these guys are not center-left, they are center/center-tilt-right, which is the Conservative faction of the Dems.

Among "Present day Democrats" that may be "right", but only among "present day". On a general common idrological scale they are not "conservative" at all...

The days when the Republicans had a liberal faction and the Democrats had a conservative faction are long gone.

If so - almost all interest to study US politics evaporates almost immediately. It's utterly boring when one party is an army of Barbara Lee clones, another - Jim Jordan's

Oh, dont worry. The Dems will always have their infighting, especially since it seems that Sander's wing is getting more power. The Rs will also be interesting, especially after Trump leaves office. While there arent any major turncoat moments when 1/2 the D party votes with the Rs, there is still a lot of intrigue. I mean, the Tax cuts and Healthcare bill were interesting, to say the least, and many factors came into play.

[136or142]

WULFRIC PROJECTIONS - MI:

U.S. House District 11 »
Democratic Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Haley Stevens
23,997   27.0%
Tim Greimel
19,317   21.8
Suneel Gupta
18,873   21.3
Fayrouz Saad
17,294   19.5
Nancy Skinner
9,234   10.4
88,715 votes, 100% reporting (291 of 291 precincts)

Republican Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Lena Epstein
26,119   30.7%
Rocky Raczkowski
21,618   25.4
Mike Kowall
15,761   18.6
Klint Kesto
11,879   14.0
Kerry Bentivolio
9,584   11.3
84,961 votes, 100% reporting (291 of 291 precincts)

You can't make a projection when all the votes have been counted!

[smoltchanov]

The way I see it, there are 4 branches of the D party at this point, Conservative, Liberal, Progressive, and DS.

What is a "Conservative"? People like Dianne Feinstein? Then i will have a very good laugh...

Joe Donnelly
Heidi Heitkamp
Joe Manchin

Nothing conservative. Center to Left-of-center people. I would understand if someone would call Boren or McIntyre or Matheson "a conservative", but only barely with adjective "moderate" before this word. The last Democrat i could simply call a "conservative" was, probably, Ralph Hall

Then it may be your definition of "Conservative" that is messed up, because these guys are not center-left, they are center/center-tilt-right, which is the Conservative faction of the Dems.

Among "Present day Democrats" that may be "right", but only among "present day". On a general common idrological scale they are not "conservative" at all...

The days when the Republicans had a liberal faction and the Democrats had a conservative faction are long gone.

If so - almost any interest to study US politics evaporates almost immediately. It's boring when one party is an army of Barbara Lee clones, another - Jim Jordan's

I never wrote or implied any such thing. Take a look at the debates here, there is still a lot of diversity in the Democratic Party and even still some in the Republican Party.  There should be a lot more in the Republican Party but they're so top down and authoritarian that the likes of a Justin Amash who actually stands up for his beliefs (whether common sensical or goofy) is very rare.

I would prefer Jacob Javits or Clifford Case (or, at least, Charles Mathias) for Republicans, and would tolerate Howell Heflin's, John Breaux and even John Stennis for Democrats)))). For variety reasons)))))... In SUCH case you could get a really interesting and difficult to predict situations, say, with Republican candidates being more moderate, then Democratic, on broad range of issues)) But that happens SO rare these days)))

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If you seriously think Sharice Davids falls into the same category as people like Manchin and Lipinski (or even Connor Lamb) then you're just deluded or intentionally being intellectually dishonest.

[Zaybay]

If you seriously think Sharice Davids falls into the same category as people like Manchin and Lipinski (or even Connor Lamb) then you're just deluded or intentionally being intellectually dishonest.

I dont know if you are referring to me, but based on the fact that you used the same people I used in my example, I will say yes.

No, they are not in the same category. Davids is in the center-Liberal Cataglory, while Lamb, Manchin, and Lipinski are on different parts of the Conservative Category.

It goes like this.

Categories in order from Right to Left: Conservative-Liberal-Progressive-DS

Sub-categories:Right/Center/Left

[CookieDamage]

If you seriously think Sharice Davids falls into the same category as people like Manchin and Lipinski (or even Connor Lamb) then you're just deluded or intentionally being intellectually dishonest.

Lots of people, especially younger and in my age bracket, seem to think that if there's one progressive in a race, especially a Bernie-endorsed progressive, then every other candidate must be a conservative, neoliberal backed by shady donors.

[136or142]

If you seriously think Sharice Davids falls into the same category as people like Manchin and Lipinski (or even Connor Lamb) then you're just deluded or intentionally being intellectually dishonest.

Lots of people, especially younger and in my age bracket, seem to think that if there's one progressive in a race, especially a Bernie-endorsed progressive, then every other candidate must be a conservative, neoliberal backed by shady donors.

And many left wing economists and their twitter followers.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Matt Morgan is claiming victory in his MI-01 D write-in bid, though we may not know officially for weeks.

[SingingAnalyst]

WULFRIC PROJECTIONS - MI:

U.S. House District 11 »
Democratic Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Haley Stevens
23,997   27.0%
Tim Greimel
19,317   21.8
Suneel Gupta
18,873   21.3
Fayrouz Saad
17,294   19.5
Nancy Skinner
9,234   10.4
88,715 votes, 100% reporting (291 of 291 precincts)

Republican Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Lena Epstein
26,119   30.7%
Rocky Raczkowski
21,618   25.4
Mike Kowall
15,761   18.6
Klint Kesto
11,879   14.0
Kerry Bentivolio
9,584   11.3
84,961 votes, 100% reporting (291 of 291 precincts)

What a hard-fought primary! With those numbers, it should be an interesting general election battle.

[136or142]

Matt Morgan is claiming victory in his MI-01 D write-in bid, though we may not know officially for weeks.

UPPER MICHIGAN (WLUC) - Democrat Matt Morgan says unofficial vote counts from Tuesday's primary show he will be on the ballot to face Republican Rep. Jack Bergman in November's general election.

According to Morgan's campaign, unofficial vote counts from 20 counties in the 32-county district indicate there were 20,000-plus write-in votes cast in the Democratic race for Congress. Morgan is the only candidate running as a write-in. Grand Traverse County alone had well over 7,000 write-in votes cast for a Democrat in Michigan’s 1st Congressional District. In 2014, zero write-in votes were cast in Grand Traverse County in that race.

In a formula set by the State of Michigan, Morgan must receive at least five percent of the total ballots cast in the race with the most votes in the Democratic primary in Michigan’s 1st. For example, if this year’s gubernatorial race had 100,000 votes cast (which would be up 30-plus percent from historic midterm primary averages), the threshold for Morgan to make the general election ballot would be 5,000.

http://www.uppermichiganssource.com/content/news/Morgan--490332281.html

[MAINEiac4434]

There is one progressive litmus test, at least for me:

Does the candidate support Medicare For All?

With Sharice Davids, that answer is a resounding no.

Her presence in the House will make it that much harder to achieve Medicare For All.

She is “fine” to “good” on every other issue, but, hypothetically speaking, if President Sanders (or whoever) submits a Medicare For All bill in like 2022, will Davids be a “yea” vote? I’m not sure she will be. And that alone is enough for me not to label her progressive.

[DrScholl]

Thankfully Kansas has a sore loser law, otherwise we'd be seeing an independent run for the Sanders candidate.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If you seriously think Sharice Davids falls into the same category as people like Manchin and Lipinski (or even Connor Lamb) then you're just deluded or intentionally being intellectually dishonest.

I dont know if you are referring to me, but based on the fact that you used the same people I used in my example, I will say yes.

No, they are not in the same category. Davids is in the center-Liberal Cataglory, while Lamb, Manchin, and Lipinski are on different parts of the Conservative Category.

It goes like this.

Categories in order from Right to Left: Conservative-Liberal-Progressive-DS

Sub-categories:Right/Center/Left

I'm not referring to you specifically but someone literally called her a Republican a few pages back.

[MAINEiac4434]

Thankfully Kansas has a sore loser law, otherwise we'd be seeing an independent run for the Sanders candidate.

Lmfao

[Yank2133]

I take solace that in 2020, after Dems win the house and possibly the senate, that the message of Dem Unity will be ineffective, and Dems will finally start to support the candidates that they actually like, instead of "muh electoral strength"

Has it ever occurred to you people that Democratic voters are already voting for the candidates they like?

[Zaybay]

I take solace that in 2020, after Dems win the house and possibly the senate, that the message of Dem Unity will be ineffective, and Dems will finally start to support the candidates that they actually like, instead of "muh electoral strength"

Has it ever occurred to you people that Democratic voters are already voting for the candidates they like?

Yes, but many are also voting for elect-ability's sake. Look at any of the posts here, any twitter posts, ask any D voters, and you will hear this phrase. "Yeah, I really like X, but Y is more electable, so Im voting for Y. Dont want to lose this race". Without the pressure of having to win the house/senate to stop Trump, D voters will be able to vote for candidates they like, without worrying about their elect-ability.

[Pyro]

I take solace that in 2020, after Dems win the house and possibly the senate, that the message of Dem Unity will be ineffective, and Dems will finally start to support the candidates that they actually like, instead of "muh electoral strength"

Has it ever occurred to you people that Democratic voters are already voting for the candidates they like?

Yes, but many are also voting for elect-ability's sake. Look at any of the posts here, any twitter posts, ask any D voters, and you will hear this phrase. "Yeah, I really like X, but Y is more electable, so Im voting for Y. Dont want to lose this race". Without the pressure of having to win the house/senate to stop Trump, D voters will be able to vote for candidates they like, without worrying about their elect-ability.

Unfortunately, without the pressure of taking Congress or stopping Trump, most D voters won't vote.

[Yank2133]

I take solace that in 2020, after Dems win the house and possibly the senate, that the message of Dem Unity will be ineffective, and Dems will finally start to support the candidates that they actually like, instead of "muh electoral strength"

Has it ever occurred to you people that Democratic voters are already voting for the candidates they like?

Yes, but many are also voting for elect-ability's sake. Look at any of the posts here, any twitter posts, ask any D voters, and you will hear this phrase. "Yeah, I really like X, but Y is more electable, so Im voting for Y. Dont want to lose this race". Without the pressure of having to win the house/senate to stop Trump, D voters will be able to vote for candidates they like, without worrying about their elect-ability.

What evidence is this based on? There was poll out a couple months back on Democratic voters  preference of candidate types. The majority want candidates like Barack Obama, not candidates like Bernie Sanders.

The hard truth that some on the left have to accept is that they don't make up the majority of the Democratic base.

[Zaybay]

I take solace that in 2020, after Dems win the house and possibly the senate, that the message of Dem Unity will be ineffective, and Dems will finally start to support the candidates that they actually like, instead of "muh electoral strength"

Has it ever occurred to you people that Democratic voters are already voting for the candidates they like?

Yes, but many are also voting for elect-ability's sake. Look at any of the posts here, any twitter posts, ask any D voters, and you will hear this phrase. "Yeah, I really like X, but Y is more electable, so Im voting for Y. Dont want to lose this race". Without the pressure of having to win the house/senate to stop Trump, D voters will be able to vote for candidates they like, without worrying about their elect-ability.

What evidence is this based on? There was poll out a couple months back on Democratic voters  preference of candidate types. The majority want candidates like Barack Obama, not candidates like Bernie Sanders.

The hard truth that some on the left have to accept is that they don't make up the majority of the Democratic base.

That doesnt disprove what I said. In fact, Im not arguing for Sander Candidates. Im arguing that the argument of electability will die, and it will become obsolete when arguing who should win. Also, Obama is still a large icon to the entire D party, while Sanders is an icon to most of the D party, so that makes sense. A better question, even though I hate to bring this up,.....would be to ask do you want a candidate like Clinton or like Sanders, cause thats an actual debate that the D party has been having. Obama, however, is highly regarded by the D party, and many emotions of Obama are inflated due to the Trump presidency, like how Bush's approval increased when he left office.

[Zaybay]

I take solace that in 2020, after Dems win the house and possibly the senate, that the message of Dem Unity will be ineffective, and Dems will finally start to support the candidates that they actually like, instead of "muh electoral strength"

Has it ever occurred to you people that Democratic voters are already voting for the candidates they like?

Yes, but many are also voting for elect-ability's sake. Look at any of the posts here, any twitter posts, ask any D voters, and you will hear this phrase. "Yeah, I really like X, but Y is more electable, so Im voting for Y. Dont want to lose this race". Without the pressure of having to win the house/senate to stop Trump, D voters will be able to vote for candidates they like, without worrying about their elect-ability.

Unfortunately, without the pressure of taking Congress or stopping Trump, most D voters won't vote.

wouldnt that benefit your/our side? If the only voters who show up to the primary are the enthused voters "aka us", wont our candidates do better?

[Yank2133]

I take solace that in 2020, after Dems win the house and possibly the senate, that the message of Dem Unity will be ineffective, and Dems will finally start to support the candidates that they actually like, instead of "muh electoral strength"

Has it ever occurred to you people that Democratic voters are already voting for the candidates they like?

Yes, but many are also voting for elect-ability's sake. Look at any of the posts here, any twitter posts, ask any D voters, and you will hear this phrase. "Yeah, I really like X, but Y is more electable, so Im voting for Y. Dont want to lose this race". Without the pressure of having to win the house/senate to stop Trump, D voters will be able to vote for candidates they like, without worrying about their elect-ability.

What evidence is this based on? There was poll out a couple months back on Democratic voters  preference of candidate types. The majority want candidates like Barack Obama, not candidates like Bernie Sanders.

The hard truth that some on the left have to accept is that they don't make up the majority of the Democratic base.

That doesnt disprove what I said. In fact, Im not arguing for Sander Candidates. Im arguing that the argument of electability will die, and it will become obsolete when arguing who should win. Also, Obama is still a large icon to the entire D party, while Sanders is an icon to most of the D party, so that makes sense. A better question, even though I hate to bring this up,.....would be to ask do you want a candidate like Clinton or like Sanders, cause thats an actual debate that the D party has been having. Obama, however, is highly regarded by the D party, and many emotions of Obama are inflated due to the Trump presidency, like how Bush's approval increased when he left office.

Except there is no evidence that electability is a driving cause for many Democratic voters. No offense, but this just sounds like an excuse for why non-establishment type candidates keep losing to the establishment.