CPRM, Pt 3: LA 11/6

[Zaybay]

Also, I am legitimately surprised at the number of Democrats celebrating pretty much a Sarsour clone getting elected to Congress.

Yes, and?

You legitimately think Linda Sarsour is a good future for the Democratic party?

1 Rep out of the likely 200+ Dems in 2018 wont make a difference. The election of Lamb didnt force the Dems to the center, nor did the election of AOC force them left.

No, but this has an impact. My father, for example, would be less likely to vote Democratic after this.

Because a muslim woman won the seat, and because she as pro-Palestinian views? Ill be honest, thats a bit weird that your dad, or any other voter for that matter, would not vote for a D rep or senator because that one from MI is against Israel, sort of.

Also, when you mentioned her, I had to actually look her up, and Im very active in politics and this forum.

My family are atheists. He doesn't like pro-religion candidates and would prefer the Democrats remain secular.

I really hate to break it to ya, but shes not advocating for Sharia Law. In fact, I have never heard, in any of her stuff or speeches, her use religion, in any case. Im pretty sure shes just a progressive/DS who happens to be muslim. Like Ellison, both are semi-religious, but dont inject it into politics. And trust me, even if they were, the R party is still quoting bible scripture and using Jesus for every argument, so its a pretty stark choice.

I don't know about Tlaib, but Linda Sarsour has multiple tweets where she basically argues that Sharia Law is actually really progressive.

I didnt even know who she was before this conversation, and Sarsour was not elected. In the case of Tlaib, she is atheist when it comes to policy.

[Zaybay]

Brent Welder
13,087   38.9%   
Sharice Davids
11,071   32.9   
Tom Niermann
4,995   14.8   


Come on Welder!

Wait, why are you cheering for Welder, arent you constitution?

[Jeppe]

Welder is toast, Sharice Davids is doing too well among election day voters. A lot of Niermann voters must've jumped ship when they saw that it was a Welder vs. Davids battle.

[136or142]

It's just one data point but it's interesting that Tlaib leads by 5,500 for the general election but by only 1,500 for the special election (where there are less candidates on the ballot.)  This may suggest that the further left Democrats aren't likely to get the votes of those who aren't further left.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm rooting for Davids, just because Welder is a Young Turks fan. That's basically the only reason.

[136or142]

I'm rooting for Davids, just because Welder is a Young Turks fan. That's basically the only reason.

That's plenty reason.

[Jeppe]

It's just one data point but it's interesting that Tlaib leads by 5,500 for the general election but by only 1,500 for the special election (where there are less candidates on the ballot.)  This may suggest that the further left Democrats aren't likely to get the votes of those who are further left.

It's a race thing, Coleman Young & Shanelle Jackson (the two candidates not on the special election ballot) are both black. So is Brenda Jones.

[Sestak]

Brent Welder
13,087   38.9%   
Sharice Davids
11,071   32.9   
Tom Niermann
4,995   14.8   


Come on Welder!

Wait, why are you cheering for Welder, arent you constitution?

My constitution party avatar is half a joke. I have it because I consider myself more pro-Constitution than most conservatives. I'm actually on the left lol.

[136or142]

It's just one data point but it's interesting that Tlaib leads by 5,500 for the general election but by only 1,500 for the special election (where there are less candidates on the ballot.)  This may suggest that the further left Democrats aren't likely to get the votes of those who areN'T further left.

It's a race thing, Coleman Young & Shanelle Jackson (the two candidates not on the special election ballot) are both black. So is Brenda Jones.

That's the most likely explanation.

[MAINEiac4434]

RIP Washington GOP. More Democratic votes in every single district.

[136or142]

RIP Washington GOP. More Democratic votes in every single district.

True, but the most Republican district wasn't on the ballot.  Also, as in California, there are still some thousands of votes left to be counted.

[Zaybay]

RIP Washington GOP. More Democratic votes in every single district.

wow, every single one? Normally, it would be a small data point, but Jungle Primaries are very good at predicting the final results, so thats really bad for the GOP.

Then again, most results have been pretty bad for the GOP, so this isnt really surprising.

[MAINEiac4434]

Tlaib's pretty much got the general election nomination, up by nearly nine points with 85% of precincts reporting.

Lowkey rooting for Jones now in the special, just so that she pulls a Curson.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Let's take a look at the Amazing Senate Primary Turnout Map! In Missouri, Republicans won by a silm margin of 53%-47%, a great sign for McCaskill! In Washington State, Dems cast 58% of the votes in the Jungle Primary to Republicans 37%. Still need some more results before coloring MI.

[MAINEiac4434]

RIP Washington GOP. More Democratic votes in every single district.

wow, every single one? Normally, it would be a small data point, but Jungle Primaries are very good at predicting the final results, so thats really bad for the GOP.

Then again, most results have been pretty bad for the GOP, so this isnt really surprising.

I was exaggerating, there are (slightly) more GOP votes in WA-05, Cathy McMorris Rodgers' district.

Dems, added together, are at 50.3 in Herrera Beutler's district. The sole Democrat is at 47.1% in McMorris Rodgers' district (the real shock here), Dems are at 49.9 in Rossi's district (lots of third party candidates, too), Dems could get D vs D generals in WA-09 and WA-03.

[Doimper]

Will Rashida Tlaib be the first Palestinian congressperson?

[MAINEiac4434]

Ian Conyers being absolutely destroyed is bringing me great joy.

Will Rashida Tlaib be the first Palestinian congressperson?

John Sununu and Justin Amash have partial Palestinian Christian ancestry.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ian Conyers being absolutely destroyed is bringing me great joy.

Will Rashida Tlaib be the first Palestinian congressperson?

John Sununu and Justin Amash have partial Palestinian Christian ancestry.

Darrell Issa too I think.

[Greatblueheron]

Let's take a look at the Amazing Senate Primary Turnout Map! In Missouri, Republicans won by a silm margin of 53%-47%, a great sign for McCaskill! In Washington State, Dems cast 58% of the votes in the Jungle Primary to Republicans 37%. Still need some more results before coloring MI.

Why isn’t New York colored Red?

[ON Progressive]

Let's take a look at the Amazing Senate Primary Turnout Map! In Missouri, Republicans won by a silm margin of 53%-47%, a great sign for McCaskill! In Washington State, Dems cast 58% of the votes in the Jungle Primary to Republicans 37%. Still need some more results before coloring MI.

Why isn’t New York colored Red?

No statewide primary in NY until September.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Let's take a look at the Amazing Senate Primary Turnout Map! In Missouri, Republicans won by a silm margin of 53%-47%, a great sign for McCaskill! In Washington State, Dems cast 58% of the votes in the Jungle Primary to Republicans 37%. Still need some more results before coloring MI.

Why isn’t New York colored Red?

Both Senate Primaries were uncontested, New York exempts uncontested races from the primary entirely. I'll get a makeshift figure during the gubernatorial primaries in September.

[Greatblueheron]

Let's take a look at the Amazing Senate Primary Turnout Map! In Missouri, Republicans won by a silm margin of 53%-47%, a great sign for McCaskill! In Washington State, Dems cast 58% of the votes in the Jungle Primary to Republicans 37%. Still need some more results before coloring MI.

Why isn’t New York colored Red?

Both Senate Primaries were uncontested, New York exempts uncontested races from the primary entirely. I'll get a makeshift figure during the gubernatorial primaries in September.

Then why did you color Virginia red, when Tim Kaine didn’t have a primary, because he ran unopposed for the Democratic nomination?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Let's take a look at the Amazing Senate Primary Turnout Map! In Missouri, Republicans won by a silm margin of 53%-47%, a great sign for McCaskill! In Washington State, Dems cast 58% of the votes in the Jungle Primary to Republicans 37%. Still need some more results before coloring MI.

Why isn’t New York colored Red?

Both Senate Primaries were uncontested, New York exempts uncontested races from the primary entirely. I'll get a makeshift figure during the gubernatorial primaries in September.

Then why did you color Virginia red, when Tim Kaine didn’t have a primary, because he ran unopposed for the Democratic nomination?

I did an alternate calculation using the turnout in the various house primaries. Same for Utah.

[Adam Griffin]

I've been using the top-ticket primary contest (or in cases where raw turnout is reported, that) to calculate the two-way primary turnout figures for 2018. With Democratic wins tonight in MI & WA, Democrats now have officially secured a majority in the Primary Electoral College!*



*Includes obvious future D wins in NY & MA; also includes an almost-certain D win in KY, for which we do not have raw turnout figures yet from SoS, but even without it, throwing in VT & HI get Democrats to 270

[MAINEiac4434]

Ian Conyers being absolutely destroyed is bringing me great joy.

Will Rashida Tlaib be the first Palestinian congressperson?

John Sununu and Justin Amash have partial Palestinian Christian ancestry.

Darrell Issa too I think.

Nope, just looked it up. Issa is all Lebanese.