CPRM, Pt 3: LA 11/6

[Zaybay]

The SOS tally only has 62/114 fulton precincts in vs the NYT at 113/114. That plus the fact that the count has updated from 87% to 89% to 91% in without any 'correction' to Fulton makes me think it's more likely the SOS just isn't getting its data as fast. This has happened before, in the TX-27 special election a few weeks back the NYT got the vote from the city of corpus christi well before the SOS did.

But it doesnt make any sense in context of the rest of the races. Every other district giving around 4,000 votes, and then Fulton county having 40,000 seems screwy.

[Jeppe]

The SOS tally only has 62/114 fulton precincts in vs the NYT at 113/114. That plus the fact that the count has updated from 87% to 89% to 91% in without any 'correction' to Fulton makes me think it's more likely the SOS just isn't getting its data as fast. This has happened before, in the TX-27 special election a few weeks back the NYT got the vote from the city of corpus christi well before the SOS did.

The ridiculous amount of votes in NYT's count makes it invalid. There is no way that 38,000 people in the Fulton portion of GA-06 voted in the Democratic primary run-off.

[Adam Griffin]

I have a hard time believing that there could be so many more votes cast in GA-06 than in GA-07.

GA-06 is heavily-white and one of the richest congressional districts in the country. While GA-07 also has money, it has a lot of low-propensity voters (in particular, Latinos and Asians).

[ON Progressive]

The SOS tally only has 62/114 fulton precincts in vs the NYT at 113/114. That plus the fact that the count has updated from 87% to 89% to 91% in without any 'correction' to Fulton makes me think it's more likely the SOS just isn't getting its data as fast. This has happened before, in the TX-27 special election a few weeks back the NYT got the vote from the city of corpus christi well before the SOS did.

It's an input error. Explain why a Dem primary with only the House primary would have equal turnout to a Republican primary with three statewide races on the ballot. Explain why GA-06 would have over 3x the turnout of next door GA-07.

You can't. It makes zero sense.

[Adam Griffin]

Also, I have no idea if NYT has more votes counted for these races than SoS, but here are the up-to-date SoS figures (95/207 precincts reporting in GA-6; 120/124 precincts reporting in GA-7):

[Zaybay]

I have a hard time believing that there could be so many more votes cast in GA-06 than in GA-07.

GA-06 is heavily-white and one of the richest congressional districts in the country. While GA-07 also has money, it has a lot of low-propensity voters (in particular, Latinos and Asians).

This is a difference of 50,000 to 15,000. And 40,000 of the votes in GA-06 is coming from Fulton. It doesnt make sense.

[Zaybay]

Also, I have no idea if NYT has more votes counted for these races than SoS, but here are the up-to-date SoS figures:

These numbers, and the ones at DDHQ, are believable, and make sense. I say these are the right ones.

If these are true, it seems the female, Emily's List, candidates won again.

Edit: as I wrote this, the numbers of GA-06 went from 99%, to 91%, so there  is clearly something going on there.

[Adam Griffin]

Just in case anybody missed my edit:

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[Jeppe]

Fulton would never finish reporting this early either. Georgia's dumb electoral laws make all of the individual polling centers physically bring over flash-drives with the results to the county office, where they are finally inputted into the system. In a huge county like Fulton, that process takes hours.

[Adam Griffin]

I have a hard time believing that there could be so many more votes cast in GA-06 than in GA-07.

GA-06 is heavily-white and one of the richest congressional districts in the country. While GA-07 also has money, it has a lot of low-propensity voters (in particular, Latinos and Asians).

This is a difference of 50,000 to 15,000. And 40,000 of the votes in GA-06 is coming from Fulton. It doesnt make sense.

To be fair, GA-06 is like 80% white and GA-07 is majority-minority + GA-06 has had $30m worth of organizing pumped into it. NYT often has more updated results than GA SoS for some reason, so those numbers may not be as off as they appear in the end.

[IceSpear]

someone gonna make this wulfric call their sig as well as last time with Lazer in PA?

That was me, but I like my current sig too much to change it.

[Adam Griffin]

GA-6 just went up by 5k votes on SoS while GA-7 remains the same:

[Zaybay]

I have a hard time believing that there could be so many more votes cast in GA-06 than in GA-07.

GA-06 is heavily-white and one of the richest congressional districts in the country. While GA-07 also has money, it has a lot of low-propensity voters (in particular, Latinos and Asians).

This is a difference of 50,000 to 15,000. And 40,000 of the votes in GA-06 is coming from Fulton. It doesnt make sense.

To be fair, GA-06 is like 80% white and GA-07 is majority-minority + GA-06 has had $30m worth of organizing pumped into it. NYT often has more updated results than GA SoS for some reason, so those numbers may not be as off as they appear in the end.

I think I might be right.

Dave Weigel is saying that the NYT numbers are wrong, but I dont know how to posts Tweets, so RIP.
https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1021947408052379648

[Jeppe]

With 109/114 precincts reporting, McBath is leading in Fulton County. She's won.

[Adam Griffin]

I have a hard time believing that there could be so many more votes cast in GA-06 than in GA-07.

GA-06 is heavily-white and one of the richest congressional districts in the country. While GA-07 also has money, it has a lot of low-propensity voters (in particular, Latinos and Asians).

This is a difference of 50,000 to 15,000. And 40,000 of the votes in GA-06 is coming from Fulton. It doesnt make sense.

To be fair, GA-06 is like 80% white and GA-07 is majority-minority + GA-06 has had $30m worth of organizing pumped into it. NYT often has more updated results than GA SoS for some reason, so those numbers may not be as off as they appear in the end.

I think I might be right.

Dave Weigel is saying that the NYT numbers are wrong, but I dont know how to posts Tweets, so RIP.
https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1021947408052379648

Just speculating here based on what SoS is showing, but it wouldn't surprise me if Ables' "21073" is supposed to be "11073" or "12073". NYT mis-enters election results on practically every election night, LOL.

[Jeppe]

With 97% reporting across the district, MCBath is leading 53.5% to Abel's 46.5%. McBath has 13,928 votes to Abel's 12,088 votes.

Bourdeaux was declared the winner for GA-07. Looks like Emily's List has gone two-for-two tonight.

[Zaybay]

I rate both of these races lean R. Possible to flip, but not the first target for Dems.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Handel and Woodall are safe, but they are both going to get a scare. Especially Woodall.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

AP has continued to update the race as the rest of Cobb has come in, and now we have Abel up 53-47 with one Cobb precinct and one Fulton Precinct listed as out.

However, because I am aware of the different SOS numbers, and because I have no idea what is going on, (even Griff's idea doesn't check out, since it would mean Abel is getting like 6,000 votes out of 4 precincts), and acknowledge that either source could be right, I'm declaring the race unprojectable. I'm done with this:

DECLARED UNPROJECTABLE:

U.S. House District 6
Democratic Primary Runoff

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Kevin Abel
28,018   53.3%   
Lucy McBath
24,501   46.7   
52,519 votes, 99% reporting (205 of 207 precincts)

[Zaybay]

AP has continued to update the race as the rest of Cobb has come in, and now we have Abel up 53-47 with one Cobb precinct and one Fulton Precinct listed as out.

However, because I am aware of the different SOS numbers, and because I have no idea what is going on, (even Griff's idea doesn't check out, since it would mean Abel is getting like 6,000 votes out of 4 precincts), and acknowledge that either source could be right, I'm declaring the race unprojectable. I'm done with this:

DECLARED UNPROJECTABLE:

U.S. House District 6
Democratic Primary Runoff

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Kevin Abel
28,018   53.3%   
Lucy McBath
24,501   46.7   
52,519 votes, 99% reporting (205 of 207 precincts)

fair

[IceSpear]

Handel and Woodall are safe, but they are both going to get a scare. Especially Woodall.

Why do you think Woodall is more vulnerable than Handel?

[Jeppe]

http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/Fulton/76188/Web02.207986/#/cid/56

Precinct-level results for the Fulton portion GA-06 primary. McBath won across the county, with Abel doing best in the southern portion, in the city of Sandy Springs. He notched up wins with 80% of the vote in some of those Sandy Springs county, but McBath won in most polls outside of Sandy Springs, eventually winning countywide as well.

[JMT]

NYTimes updated their numbers... McBath leading Abel 53.5% to 46.5% with 98% in. Congrats McBath

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Handel and Woodall are safe, but they are both going to get a scare. Especially Woodall.

Why do you think Woodall is more vulnerable than Handel?

One argument I could see is that Handel already experienced the most expensive house race in the country and won by 5%, while Woodall has never been seriously challenged.

[Zaybay]

NYTs has corrected the numbers. Mcbath in the lead, and it seems she will be the nominee.