Yet another Tory leadership contest!

[Ben.]

I think that Derek Conway would be well advised to throw himself in a ditch, but thats probably just me.

I do worry about the damage he could cause though, he did do for IDS after all... that said I think Cameron would be far more formidable and able than IDS ever was, the more I've seen and heard from Davis the more he seems to be IDS but with hair.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Didn’t Conway lose to Paul Marsden of all people back in 97?

Yes!

Even better; Marsden vaulted from third in '92 to first in '97

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I think you'll find that he finds it impossible to do that. Dangerous guy Conway.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Did anyone see the debate they had last night? Didn't see it meself, but I'm told that Davis did well.

[Ben.]

Did anyone see the debate they had last night? Didn't see it meself, but I'm told that Davis did well.

Davis was solid, he gave the clear and concise answers, nothing spectacular… but expectations for him where so low that to he didn’t really have to do much… but it was a solid performance.

Cameron got some good “sound bites” in, but he tended to repeat already established themes, and I got the sense that he hadn’t practiced nearly as much as Davis.

Clear win for Davis, but overall it was a fairly boring debate until right at the end… when they both seemed to go for each other. Davis camp also seemed to have managed their supporters in the audience very well with very pointed questions, Cameron’s team, from what you could tell, had been less adept at guiding their supporters in the audience.

Wouldn’t have thought the debated changed many minds, but it may have heightened undecided Tories concerns over Cameron’s inexperience… I doubt he’ll get the 70% that Maude had suggested, I think Cameron is now more likely to get 55-60%, then again even IDS got over 60%.       

[Michael Z]

Watched the debate yesterday. Davis was quite impressive, actually. He showed the kind of hubris he definitely lacked at the Tory conference.

[afleitch]

Strike 2 to Davis. But he began to get over confident, even a little cocky towards the end; talk of 'poor people'. Never, ever call them poor, it just makes you seem out of touch.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Apparently voting as begun. Month to the result now.

[minionofmidas]

Strike 2 to Davis. But he began to get over confident, even a little cocky towards the end; talk of 'poor people'. Never, ever call them poor, it just makes you seem out of touch.

You hear that, Opebo?

[Democratic Hawk]

Let's just say having seen it, I'm able to sleep better at night. The highlight of the show was the text messages on Ceefax p.155

Neither impressed me - but hell, you can't really expect them to - but I'd say Davis gained from it. Whether the race tightens or not, I don't know. Furthermore, I don't really care

In my neck of the woods, the Tories aren't the problem it's the Lib Dims or Lib Dums (whatever they are called, I can never remember). The Tory candidate in Durham last time round seemed a sound guy - but the Conservative vote halved from 2001

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4408360.stm

[Ben.]

Post Debate Poll - YouGov.


Who Won the Debate?

Davis - 45%
Cameron - 18%

Style Over Substance?

Cameron - 40%
Davis - 6% 

Better Prime Minister?

Cameron - 54%
Davis - 31%

Who will you vote for as Conservative Party Leader?

Cameron – 68%
Davis – 32%

…YouGov poll of Tory Party members, YouGov’s 2001 Tory Leadership polls got the breakdown between IDS and Clark pretty much dead on, and should probably be given more credence the recent ICM, with its very weird sample.

My take is that Davis has firmed up his support, but remains unable to make any real advance against Cameron, and at the same time Cameron is still overwhelmingly viewed by the Tory Membership, and importantly the General public, as the most attractive candidate and consequently the one most likely to win… and for that reason his support is holding up. He will however need to prep hard for the ITN and Sky News debates that are being arranged, as I got the sense that he had not prepared nearly as much as Davis for the debate the other night.     

[Democratic Hawk]

Davis might have won the debate but it seems like he's toast anyway

Dave

[Ben.]

Davis might have won the debate but it seems like he's toast anyway

Dave

Did you get the sense that Cameron hadn't prepared for the QT debate?

And did you hear the "can't run a bath" rebuke to Cameron from one questioner was in fact Jonathan Atkins son, an aid for the Davis campaign lol!

Cameron’s people should have noticed that, he could pretty much have destroyed his credibility as a questioner by pointing out who he was. 

[Democratic Hawk]

Did you get the sense that Cameron hadn't prepared for the QT debate?

And did you hear the "can't run a bath" rebuke to Cameron from one questioner was in fact Jonathan Atkins son, an aid for the Davis campaign lol!

Cameron’s people should have noticed that, he could pretty much have destroyed his credibility as a questioner by pointing out who he was. 

Yes, I'm of the opinion he didn't really know what he was letting himself in for and Cameron should have exposed that paragon of virtue Aitken's son. I would have but then I don't take any prisoners

Further down the line, any possible Cameron-led Conservative government would be preferable to what I've had to endure in the past. Hopefully, we won't see a return to the nastynomics of mass unemployment, higher inflation and extortionate interest rates. I know things aren't so rosey as they have been, but I think we can weather it. The Tories, after all, did win re-election twice (1983, 1992) whilst in the throws of a severe recession. 1983, however, was a lost cause for Labour just like 1984 was a lost cause for the Democrats

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

The real beauty of the TV debate was Cameron and Davis hailing Ireland as their economic model. Oh the irony of it, they praise a country, which from what I can gather, has bought into the European idea hook, line and sinker

Dave

[Michael Z]

The real beauty of the TV debate was Cameron and Davis hailing Ireland as their economic model. Oh the irony of it, they praise a country, which from what I can gather, has bought into the European idea hook, line and sinker

I'm glad I'm not the only one who spotted that irony.

[Јas]

The real beauty of the TV debate was Cameron and Davis hailing Ireland as their economic model. Oh the irony of it, they praise a country, which from what I can gather, has bought into the European idea hook, line and sinker

Dave

Having missed the debate, can someone give me a bit more detail what they said about Ireland as an economic model.

[Democratic Hawk]

The real beauty of the TV debate was Cameron and Davis hailing Ireland as their economic model. Oh the irony of it, they praise a country, which from what I can gather, has bought into the European idea hook, line and sinker

Dave

Having missed the debate, can someone give me a bit more detail what they said about Ireland as an economic model.

I can't remember the detail but, from what I can recall, Davis mentioned Ireland embarking on a tax cutting agenda about 20 years ago, which has led to a bouyant Irish economy

I've been trying to find a transcript of the debate but as yet to no avail. They don't as a rule keep them for every show

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

In The Times today, there is a Populus poll of Conservative voters, in which Davis has taken a lead over Cameron

Among Tory voters, Davis is on 50% and Cameron is on 37% (with 13% "don't knows")

However, by 45% to 11%, they think Cameron is more likely to win a general election

Among all voters, Cameron is on 37% and Davis 30% (with 33% "don't knows")

In two possible general election match-ups, voting intentions are:

1) Brown (Lab) vs Cameron (Con) vs Kennedy (LD): Lab 37%, Con 35%, LD 20%, Other 9% - a Labour lead of 2%

2) Brown (Lab) vs Davis (Con) vs Kennedy (LD): Lab 43%, Con 32%, LD 18%, Other 7% - a Labour lead of 11%

However, on Sunday, a ICM/ Sunday Telegraph poll asked voters:

1) Voting intention if an election was held tomorrow:

Lab 39%, Con 33%, LD 21%, Other 7% - a Labour lead of 6%

2) If Brown were Labour leader and Davis Conservative leader:

Lab 41%, Con 33%, LD 18%, Other 8% - a Labour lead of 8%

3) If Brown were Labour leader and Cameron Conservative leader:

Lab 41%, Con 34%, LD 16%, Other 9% - a Labour lead of 7%

Furthermore, 60% of the ICM sample feel that the Conservative Party is out of touch with modern society against 31% who think otherwise and it finds little enthusiasm for tax cuts, with only 24% thinking that a Conservative government should give priority to cutting taxes even if it means less spending on public services

Any thoughts?

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In The Times today, there is a Populus poll of Conservative voters, in which Davis has taken a lead over Cameron

Among Tory voters, Davis is on 50% and Cameron is on 37% (with 13% "don't knows")

However, by 45% to 11%, they think Cameron is more likely to win a general election

*tries to make sense of those figures*

*fails*

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In otherwords a re-run of '05 but with the LibDems getting squeezed (and bearing in mind how marginal a lot of their constituencies are, losing a lot of seats).

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In otherwords, a landslide (and on those figures Simon Hughes would lose Bermondsey )

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Interestingly enough, that's more-or-less in line with what the local by-elections are pointing too.

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*Looks at the LibDem figure with barely disguised glee*

Is the Baxter calculator still online?

[Democratic Hawk]

I've found this one www.electoralcalculus.co.uk

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

In two possible general election match-ups, voting intentions are:

1) Brown (Lab) vs Cameron (Con) vs Kennedy (LD): Lab 37% (355 seats), Con 35% (219 seats), LD 20% (41 seats), Other 9% - a Labour lead of 2% and an overall majority of 64

2) Brown (Lab) vs Davis (Con) vs Kennedy (LD): Lab 43% (398 seats), Con 32% (187 seats), LD 18% (32 seats), Other 7% - a Labour lead of 11% and an overall majority of 150

However, on Sunday, a ICM/ Sunday Telegraph poll asked voters:

1) Voting intention if an election was held tomorrow:

Lab 39% (374 seats), Con 33% (195 seats), LD 21% (47 seats), Other 7% - a Labour lead of 6% and an overall majority of 102

2) If Brown were Labour leader and Davis Conservative leader:

Lab 41% (390 seats), Con 33% (196 seats), LD 18% (31 seats), Other 8% - a Labour lead of 8% and an overall majority of 134

3) If Brown were Labour leader and Cameron Conservative leader:

Lab 41% (389 seats), Con 34% (209 seats - the giddy heights of Michael Foot ), LD 16% (19 seats), Other 9% - a Labour lead of 7% and an overall majority of 132

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...and the 19 surviving Liberal seats in ICM Brown v Cameron would be: St Ives, Yeovil, Northavon, Lewes, Kingston & Surbiton, Twickenham, North Norfolk, Montgomery, Hazel Grove, Sheffield Hallam, Harrogate & Knaresborough, Berwick upon Tweed, Edinburgh West, North East Fife, Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine, Gordon, Ross-Skye & Lochaber, Caithness-Sutherland & Easter Ross... and Orkney & Shetland.

Simon Hughes, Evan Harris, Lynee Featherbrain and John Hemming ALL LOSE!

[Democratic Hawk]

Simon Hughes, Evan Harris, Lynee Featherbrain and John Hemming ALL LOSE!

Beautiful, I know

Dave

[minionofmidas]

In two possible general election match-ups, voting intentions are:

1) Brown (Lab) vs Cameron (Con) vs Kennedy (LD): Lab 37% (355 seats), Con 35% (219 seats), LD 20% (41 seats), Other 9% - a Labour lead of 2% and an overall majority of 64

2) Brown (Lab) vs Davis (Con) vs Kennedy (LD): Lab 43% (398 seats), Con 32% (187 seats), LD 18% (32 seats), Other 7% - a Labour lead of 11% and an overall majority of 150

So, Davis doesn't lose the Cons votes to the LD's - just to Labour - but rather loses the LD's frightened tactical voters to Labour. Hehe. Ah, threeway political systems.