Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[Mike88]

The exit polls in both Emilia-Romagna and Calabrian seem in line with pre-election polls. The high turnout in Emilia-Romagna seems to have benefited both the PD and Lega. M5S... well, it's basically over for them, isn't it?

Counting will be very slow, right?

[Mike88]

Latest prediction:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1221565991299186688

The gap between Sinistra and "Destra", let's put it just like that, seems to be growing.

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1307812978511753216

[Mike88]

New projection gives 67.8% for YES and 32.2% for NO.

[Mike88]

Results from the referendum: https://elezioni.repubblica.it/2020/referendum/20200920/italia?ref=RHPPTP-DE

20.7% counted:

69.2% Yes
30.8% No

54.3% Turnout

[Mike88]

Looking good for the PS and a disaster for Five Stars Movement

What is the PS?

I think he means PD. Typo error, I assume.

[Mike88]

BREAKING:

Italy's government has just fallen apart.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1349407214478483457

Not sure what Renzi thinks he will win with this, but whatever. He's not even popular. He should spend his time playing Wheel of Fortune, but he seems to be bad at that as he is in politics.

Is it true that Berlusconi could save Conte? I've read that somewhere.

[Mike88]

Not sure what Renzi thinks he will win with this, but whatever. He's not even popular. Is it true that Berlusconi could save Conte? I've read that somewhere.

It's theoretically possible, and it would be hilarious in a bad way, but I have no idea what Berlusconi actually thinks of all of this.

Well, if he somehow saves Conte during this awful period, we can probably say, very, very quietly: "Menomale che Silvio c'è"

But, it seems unlikely, in my opinion, not to say it would a re-run of a bad show, but this is 2021. We'll see.

[Mike88]

Not sure what Renzi thinks he will win with this, but whatever. He's not even popular. Is it true that Berlusconi could save Conte? I've read that somewhere.

It's theoretically possible, and it would be hilarious in a bad way, but I have no idea what Berlusconi actually thinks of all of this.

Well, if he somehow saves Conte during this awful period, we can probably say, very, very quietly: "Menomale che Silvio c'è"

Lmaooo

A very hilarious possibility would be a M5S-FI government; they likely have the numbers, and both parties stand to lose big from new elections. After the yellow-green government and the yellow-red government, in for the yellow-blue one? Realistically there's like <1% chance it happens, but who knows...

And any possibility of Renzi retracting his exit from the government? Or of a revolt in his caucus? It wouldn't be the first time.

[Mike88]

Not sure what Renzi thinks he will win with this, but whatever. He's not even popular. Is it true that Berlusconi could save Conte? I've read that somewhere.

It's theoretically possible, and it would be hilarious in a bad way, but I have no idea what Berlusconi actually thinks of all of this.

Well, if he somehow saves Conte during this awful period, we can probably say, very, very quietly: "Menomale che Silvio c'è"

Lmaooo

A very hilarious possibility would be a M5S-FI government; they likely have the numbers, and both parties stand to lose big from new elections. After the yellow-green government and the yellow-red government, in for the yellow-blue one? Realistically there's like <1% chance it happens, but who knows...

And any possibility of Renzi retracting his exit from the government? Or of a revolt in his caucus? It wouldn't be the first time.

Both things are possible, yes (I could actually argue that the former is even likely, but I won't do it). I don't think Renzi's endgame is really a snap election, and I don't know how other people in IV are assessing the situation.

I ask that because this crisis gives me a sense of deja-vú: a politician with a huge ego forcing a crisis in the worst possible moment for very vague reasons. Irrevocable Paulo Portas. It was five years ago

The then Minister of Foreign Affairs was not pleased to learn that Maria Luís Albuquerque was going to replace Vítor Gaspar. And he slammed the door, without anyone knowing. It lasted four days

[Mike88]

It seems that Conte is on track to win the Senate vote, is that right?

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/antoguerrera/status/1360314642950729728
https://twitter.com/antoguerrera/status/1360316113943474179
What a stable genius Renzi is.

[Mike88]

Is this not good news for FdI since now they can cleanup the anti-establishment vote in the next election ?

FdI will likely make hay out of being the only opposition, yes. Joining this government seems like a strategic blunder on both Matteos' parts.

Io Sono Giorgia, Sono una donna, sono una madre, sono una cristiana.

[Mike88]

Why is the counting so slow in Rome? (And here I was, a week ago, criticizing Lisbon for the slow vote count )

Also, turnout seems really, really low, compared with the 57% in 2016.

[Mike88]

There counting right now, right?

[Mike88]

There counting right now, right?

About to begin.

Let's see if it's the final one.

[Mike88]

There counting right now, right?

About to begin.

Let's see if it's the final one.

It should be. Mattarella is expected to get over 800 votes.

Yeah, I'm watching a live feed of the count, and the Counting Chair says Mattarella's name over and over again as each ballot is given to him.

[Mike88]

Will ballots start to be counted after the 11pm poll closing, or will they do it "Irish style" and start counting only during tomorrow morning?

[Mike88]

Polls have now officially closed! And I am about to count and count and count. The Yes/No splits of the referenda will surely be interesting, but they are all going to miss the quorum and by a lot so in a sense we already know what to expect.

Were you a polling volunteer in this election?

[Mike88]

Polls have now officially closed! And I am about to count and count and count. The Yes/No splits of the referenda will surely be interesting, but they are all going to miss the quorum and by a lot so in a sense we already know what to expect.

Were you a polling volunteer in this election?

Yes, I mentioned this in the previous page (and to be clear, we are paid volunteers).

Ah, sorry, I must have spiked that info. Yes, I know it's paid volunteers, here they are paid around 52 euros, I presume that it's more in Italy.

The results seem to be as expected between the "center-left" and "center-right". No major changes, expect with the win of the right in Palermo. About the referendums, what was the point of them? I know they were about judicial changes, but was a referendum really necessary?

[Mike88]

Polls have now officially closed! And I am about to count and count and count. The Yes/No splits of the referenda will surely be interesting, but they are all going to miss the quorum and by a lot so in a sense we already know what to expect.

Were you a polling volunteer in this election?

Yes, I mentioned this in the previous page (and to be clear, we are paid volunteers).

Ah, sorry, I must have spiked that info. Yes, I know it's paid volunteers, here they are paid around 52 euros, I presume that it's more in Italy.

The results seem to be as expected between the "center-left" and "center-right". No major changes, expect with the win of the right in Palermo. About the referendums, what was the point of them? I know they were about judicial changes, but was a referendum really necessary?

I should be paid 208 euros this year, so yes much more.

It is arguable whether the referenda were "really necessary" and indeed a good part of the centre-left opposition to the whole thing was that it overlapped with the Cartabia reform and made the latter harder to work about. But I did think they were good questions for the most part so why not?

208 euros?!? Wow!, if that was the case here, I would sign up to be a poll worker in every election.

I believe that referendums should be held when there's a topic that really divides and could create big changes, and in even some cases, I also have doubts about it's effectiveness. But, it is what it is. Despite the dismal turnout, the changes will be implemented, right? Or there's any kind of threshold?

[Mike88]

Today is the day of the local election runoffs! Since La Spezia's mayor was elected in the first round, I can rest instead of working at the polls a second time. Updates coming later.

In other news, the first polls after the Di Maio split show Insieme per il Futuro getting a paltry 1% but also M5S slipping more and more. Opinions on the government and the general situation have also worsened, although honestly a President of the Council getting the approval of half the population still feels historic to me.

M5S is polling now bellow 10% for the first time since 2012. Draghi is clearly benefited for not belonging to any political party and for being above the complete mess of party politics. But, next year's elections are going to be... well... complicated. If Meloni comes out on top, I don't have any idea who could be Draghi's successor as the new President of the Council of Ministers.

Alongside M5S's colapse, Lega's downfall is also spectacular.

[Mike88]

The situation between Conte and Draghi has been tense ever since Di Maio left the M5S. The two are expected to meet next Monday but for now there is a lot of "unease" with accusations from the Five Stars that Draghi engineered the split and rumours about the party potentially leaving the government.

Relatedly, new polls have come out - some of them put IpF at significantly more than 1% (meaning 3-4%), while the long decline of the "populist" parties continues, with Lega hitting a new post-2018 low under 14% and a couple of outliers even showing M5S in single digits.

Draghi would still have a comfortable majority if M5S leaves the government, but M5S seems like they are just at the verge of extinction. I wasn't aware that Di Maio was able to "steal" almost a third of the M5S to his new party. If somehow, M5S ceases to exist by the next election, who would benefit? Di Maio's party or PD? I'm probably gonna rule out Lega, Berlusconi and FdI as possible options for former M5S voters.

[Mike88]

There will be a meeting of M5S MPs in the next hours to define what will vote. Conte has called Draghi to accord another meeting soon over the issue.

M5S has decided to not take part in the vote. According to the report, Draghi has said he will quit if M5S walks out from government and other coalition parties are aligning in the same line. However, Conte is open for more talks with Draghi, but no response has come yet from him.

[Mike88]

It sounds like Draghi really wants out regardless, even though he could go on without M5S. Tbh, he seems to have gotten sick of the job after he failed to be elected President last Winter, and might have been looking for an excuse to ride off into the sunset. Still though, that's a pretty awful time to do it, and I'd much rather he stay on (although admittedly giving Salvini control over when the next elections happen would be its own can of worms).

What control would Salvini have? It's not like he can keep propping up Draghi but then pull the plug in the middle of budget negotiations, and I don't think it would make much difference to vote in January 2023 or March 2023.

If Draghi does resign and Parliament is dissolved during this month, the general election will only happen in January next year? Isn't that too late?