Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

In the case if they we going first to consultation round, some analysts and politicians like De Alema are trying to invoke the "ipotesi Amato", in reference to call the former PM and current President of the Constitutional Court Giuliano Amato to be nominated as interim PM (like happened in 1992 or 2000) for what remains to the legislature or until snap elections.

An Amato III government would be so absurd, so logic-defying, so ridiculously "digging up political fossils" that it is probably exactly what Italy deserves (and would give the parties time to write a new electoral law and pass a budget and whatever else). Obviously I am not surprised that it was Massimo D'Alema to reportedly come up with this big-brained idea, it's what he does best.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

172 votes are actually more than enough for a majority, so I'm not sure what the fretting is all about. Just kick M5S out and carry on.

Mattarella can definitely refuse the resignation for that reason... but we have to see whether the rest of the majority is going to crumble apart afterwards.

[jaichind]

Italian President Sergio Mattarella rejected a resignation offer from Prime Minister Mario Draghi, according to a statement from the head of state’s office.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It sounds like Draghi really wants out regardless, even though he could go on without M5S. Tbh, he seems to have gotten sick of the job after he failed to be elected President last Winter, and might have been looking for an excuse to ride off into the sunset. Still though, that's a pretty awful time to do it, and I'd much rather he stay on (although admittedly giving Salvini control over when the next elections happen would be its own can of worms).

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

It sounds like Draghi really wants out regardless, even though he could go on without M5S. Tbh, he seems to have gotten sick of the job after he failed to be elected President last Winter, and might have been looking for an excuse to ride off into the sunset. Still though, that's a pretty awful time to do it, and I'd much rather he stay on (although admittedly giving Salvini control over when the next elections happen would be its own can of worms).

What control would Salvini have? It's not like he can keep propping up Draghi but then pull the plug in the middle of budget negotiations, and I don't think it would make much difference to vote in January 2023 or March 2023.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It sounds like Draghi really wants out regardless, even though he could go on without M5S. Tbh, he seems to have gotten sick of the job after he failed to be elected President last Winter, and might have been looking for an excuse to ride off into the sunset. Still though, that's a pretty awful time to do it, and I'd much rather he stay on (although admittedly giving Salvini control over when the next elections happen would be its own can of worms).

What control would Salvini have? It's not like he can keep propping up Draghi but then pull the plug in the middle of budget negotiations, and I don't think it would make much difference to vote in January 2023 or March 2023.

I mean it would be a silly thing to do, but you never know with these people. Either way, it doesn't seem like Draghi is interested in exploring the option.

[Mike88]

It sounds like Draghi really wants out regardless, even though he could go on without M5S. Tbh, he seems to have gotten sick of the job after he failed to be elected President last Winter, and might have been looking for an excuse to ride off into the sunset. Still though, that's a pretty awful time to do it, and I'd much rather he stay on (although admittedly giving Salvini control over when the next elections happen would be its own can of worms).

What control would Salvini have? It's not like he can keep propping up Draghi but then pull the plug in the middle of budget negotiations, and I don't think it would make much difference to vote in January 2023 or March 2023.

If Draghi does resign and Parliament is dissolved during this month, the general election will only happen in January next year? Isn't that too late?

[FrancoAgo]

no over 70 day from the dissolution, but i've many doubt they dissolve the parliament this month, the use it's try to form a government so we lost some time, weeks

[bore]

The myth of "consensual" resignation

M5S: I consent
Mario Draghi: I consent
Sergio Mattarella: I don't

Isn't there someone you forgot to ask?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

It sounds like Draghi really wants out regardless, even though he could go on without M5S. Tbh, he seems to have gotten sick of the job after he failed to be elected President last Winter, and might have been looking for an excuse to ride off into the sunset. Still though, that's a pretty awful time to do it, and I'd much rather he stay on (although admittedly giving Salvini control over when the next elections happen would be its own can of worms).

What control would Salvini have? It's not like he can keep propping up Draghi but then pull the plug in the middle of budget negotiations, and I don't think it would make much difference to vote in January 2023 or March 2023.

If Draghi does resign and Parliament is dissolved during this month, the general election will only happen in January next year? Isn't that too late?

No, we were talking about the scenario where Draghi does not resign and Parliament isn't dissolved during this month.

[jaichind]

Bloomberg reports: Mario Draghi has signaled that he’s determined to resign as Italy’s prime minister next week since he doesn’t have the backing of all the parties in his splintered governing alliance, according to people familiar with the matter. 

[PetrSokol]

Is there any chance that Draghi will in the next elections? Is he thinking about a new party?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is there any chance that Draghi will in the next elections? Is he thinking about a new party?

He'd be lucky to do as well as Monti and Dini when they tried that.

[FrancoAgo]

a Draghi party would be only to help the right to win

[jaichind]

Bloomberg : "In a joint statement following a meeting in Sardinia, Matteo Salvini and Silvio Berlusconi ruled out the possibility of the two right-center-parties remaining in the governing coalition, which included the Five Star Movement."

[Mike88]

Bloomberg : "In a joint statement following a meeting in Sardinia, Matteo Salvini and Silvio Berlusconi ruled out the possibility of the two right-center-parties remaining in the governing coalition, which included the Five Star Movement."

So, it's over. Snap election during October are almost certain.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Draghi met Letta at Palazzo Chigi today before going to the Quirinale. I am not sure what they discussed but the meeting was criticized by the centre-right side of the government - precisely Berlusconi, Salvini and Cesa (UdC) who were together for lunch in the Alban Hills at one of Silvio's villas. Naturally Meloni was elsewhere, and it is clear that she is distrustful of what should be her "allies".

Bloomberg : "In a joint statement following a meeting in Sardinia, Matteo Salvini and Silvio Berlusconi ruled out the possibility of the two right-center-parties remaining in the governing coalition, which included the Five Star Movement."

So, it's over. Snap election during October are almost certain.

This is not true (yet). Salvini and Berlusconi rejected the possibility of remaining in government with the M5S, but not of staying in more generally. Of course they would be happy with new elections (especially Salvini), but they are also facing significant internal resistance - for example Veneto governor Luca Zaia unsurprisingly pledged "firm and resolute" support for Draghi.*

*On this note it would be very funny if Zaia and the "institutionalists" finally couped Salvini... but this is still not in the cards for now.

[jaichind]

Bloomberg: 

Italy Coalition on Cusp of Collapse as Parties Don’t Back Draghi

"The center-right League party indicated on Wednesday that it will join Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia in skipping a confidence vote over Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s government, raising the prospect the government will collapse and of snap elections as soon as the fall."

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yep, it's over.

No one wants to be responsible for the fall of the government, but everyone (except PD, IV etc.) has basically made it clear they're not available to continue on. Including Draghi, who imposed very harsh conditions on M5S and also Lega to come back to the fold. Honestly good on him, I respect him saying "this is my agenda, take it or leave it" rather than desperately trying to woo everyone off. I still think this is a terrible time to have a caretaker government, but oh well. Democracy is messy and I'm glad we're still one.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

The Senate confirmed its confidence to Draghi, but FI and Lega skipped the vote and M5S abstained, so the result was pretty pathetic. Draghi is expected to resign tomorrow after the confidence vote in the Chamber.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The Senate confirmed its confidence to Draghi, but FI and Lega skipped the vote and M5S abstained, so the result was pretty pathetic. Draghi is expected to resign tomorrow after the confidence vote in the Chamber.

And Mattarella will most likely call for new elections to be held on October 2.

[jaichind]

Draghi resignation accepted

[jaichind]

The right wing parties got what they wanted: an early election but with 5 Star taking the blame for the fall of the current government

[Mike88]

The Italian government colapses on the same day the ECB plans to increase interest rates by more than expected. Plus, 10 year bonds for southern european countries are already surging: Italy at 3.63%, Greece at 3.61%, Spain at 2.52% and Portugal at 2.46%.

This is going to be very complicated, because polls don't predict a stable or clear outcome at all.

[jaichind]

The ECB is in a very difficult situation.  Raise rates to stop price surge means the Italian bond market might be in real big trouble since the Italian bond spreads already surged on political turmoil.  ECB has a "tool" to contain the Italian bond spreads from rising too much but it is just de facto QE which defeats the point of rate increases.