Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[ilikeverin]

I'm pretty sure the party distribution is national for the House (they are still broken down by constituency, but only after the national party distribution).

Right. This is the part I struggle with... just... what? It seems completely nonsensical?

So, wait... the PR is computed nationally, and then... it's magically copy-pasted to each region‽‽‽

[President Johnson]

So Salvini will return as Interior Minister? Will Silvio "Bunga Bunga" Berlusconi take any cabinet position?

[Andrea]

Why does

https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/scrutini/20220925/scrutiniCI

show 146 FPTP seats for the lower house. I thought there were 147 FPTP seats ..

the 147th is Aosta Valley. It is not included in that calculation

[Andrea]

The Interior Ministry published a (tentative, since there are still a few dozen unreported precincts) distribution of PR seats, which gives 114 seats to the right in the House and 56 in the Senate - one fewer than I estimated in each. Not sure if the results moved a bit since I last calculated them or if I didn't use the right formula, but either way, worth noting.

How are the PR seats doled out again? If I remember right they still have constituencies but... it's done nationally? So are the number of seats worked out nationally and then just filled out at constituency level without having to align with votes cast in them, or...?

I'm pretty sure the party distribution is national for the House (they are still broken down by constituency, but only after the national party distribution). In the Senate, I'm not sure. It's possible they're still allotted regionally, which would explain FI's relative underperformance (higher effective threshold).

Yes, alloted at regional level for the Senate

The Interior Ministry published a (tentative, since there are still a few dozen unreported precincts) distribution of PR seats, which gives 114 seats to the right in the House and 56 in the Senate - one fewer than I estimated in each. Not sure if the results moved a bit since I last calculated them or if I didn't use the right formula, but either way, worth noting.

FI gets 22 seats in the House and 9 in the Senate - so far not enough to be decisive in either, but we'll have to see who the winners of FPP districts are. FI needs 16 more in the House and 7 more in the Senate, so well within reach.

Are the PR seats distributed in 2 steps (by coalition list and then by parties inside the list) or directly by parties?

IIRC, yes.

[Andrea]

I'm pretty sure the party distribution is national for the House (they are still broken down by constituency, but only after the national party distribution).

Right. This is the part I struggle with... just... what? It seems completely nonsensical?

It is even worse...broken down in circumscriptions and then from circumscription into plurinominal constituencies....
total seats for circumscriptions and plurinominal constituencies should match their overall entitlements...but the toal for each list should match the national totals....

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I'm pretty sure the party distribution is national for the House (they are still broken down by constituency, but only after the national party distribution).

Right. This is the part I struggle with... just... what? It seems completely nonsensical?

I believe each party is assigned as many seats as the number of full quotas they reached inside each multi-member constituency, and then all the remaining seats they are entitled to are assigned to them in the constituencies where they have the highest remainder.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...

[If my soul was made of stone]

I'm pretty sure the party distribution is national for the House (they are still broken down by constituency, but only after the national party distribution).

Right. This is the part I struggle with... just... what? It seems completely nonsensical?

I believe each party is assigned as many seats as the number of full quotas they reached inside each multi-member constituency, and then all the remaining seats they are entitled to are assigned to them in the constituencies where they have the highest remainder.

[Andrea]

Point h of article 1 of electoral law

Subsequently, the Office ascertains if the number of seats assigned in all constituencies a
each coalition of lists or single list corresponds to the number of
seats determined pursuant to letter f). [the total number of seats assigned at national level]
If not, proceeds to the following operations, starting with the coalition of lists or single list that has the largest number of excess seats and, in case of parity of excess seats by more than one coalition of lists or single lists, from the one that has obtained the highest national electoral share, then continuing with the other coalitions of lists or single lists in descending order of excess seats:

it subtracts the excess seats from the coalition of lists or single lists in the circumscriptions in which it obtained them with the parties decimals of the attribution quotients, according to their order growing, and in which also the coalitions of lists or singles lists, which have not obtained the number of seats due, have unused decimal parts of quotients.
Consequently, assigns seats to such coalitions of lists or single lists.
 So far as in the same constituency two or more coalitions of lists o individual lists have unused decimal parts of the quotients, the seat is attributed to the coalition of lists or to the single list
with the highest decimal part of the quotient not used or, in case of parity, to the one with the highest national electoral figure.
In the event that it is not possible to assign the seat in excess in the same constituency, as there are no coalitions of lists or single lists in deficit with decimal parts of quotients not
used, the Office continues, for the same coalition of lists o single excess list, in the order of increasing decimals, identify another constituency, until it is possible subtract the surplus seat and assign it to a coalition of lists or single list in deficit in the same constituency.
if it is not possible to refer to same circumscription for the purpose of completing previous operations, up to the number of seats still to be sold, to the coalition of slates or single surplus slates are subtracted from the seats in the circumscriptions in which he obtained them with the minor parts decimals of the attribution quotient and the coalition of lists o seats are consequently assigned to a single list in deficit in the other circumscriptions in which it has the major parts unused decimals of the attribution quotient;

[Antonio the Sixth]

To play devil's advocate, the basic idea here actually makes a lot of sense: you assign within a constituency the seats that parties are actually entitled to based on their results, and send the remaining votes to a higher geographic tier so that you can do another proportional allocation there. That way, as many seats as possible are assigned at the most local level while still ensuring overall proportionality. It's a very elegant concept, and iirc one that's been used in Denmark with great success.

The thing is that it makes no sense within the broader context of Italy's insane electoral system, which doesn't give a sh*t either about proportionality or local representation. Here it's just some pointless, ridiculous complication.

[MRCVzla]

Why does

https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/scrutini/20220925/scrutiniCI

show 146 FPTP seats for the lower house. I thought there were 147 FPTP seats ..

As they say before, Aosta Valley is the 147th seat and it's counted aside of the rest of the country and Abroad constituency for their pure FPTP nature (as well the 6 Senate seats from South Tyrol).

Speaking of Aosta Valley, the House seat was won by the alliance between the PD, Azione/IV and the main autonomist parties (a Union Valdotaine member), but in the Senate was a close race won by the centre-right single candidate (a former regional president from Lega). In the House what cost the gain for the Cdx here was the vote splitting to a local Renaissance Valdotaine candidate, a party linked to Vittorio Sgarbi' national movement (similar be said by the centre-left-autonomist in the Senate, also affected by a vote splitting for a former Senator/regional president candidacy).

The South Tyrol Senate seats went 2 by each pole, Csx won Bolzano and Trento, Cdx hold Rovereto and Pergine Valsugana while the SVP retains their german-speaking districts of Merano and Bressanone, in the Chamber SVP won the 2 Bolzano province seats while the 2 Trento province seats stayed at Cdx)

While in the Abroad constituencies, PD won 3/4 Senators (minus South America who went to MAIE, winning by a landslide in Argentina as usual, meaning former F1 champion Emerson Fittipaldi endorsed by the Cdx lost) and 4/8 seats (including "virologist" Andrea Crisanti in the Europe constituency), the Centre-right only elected a Lega incumbent in Europe and a FdI member in North/Central America, the other seats went to M5S who hold an Europe seat and the usual MAIE seat in South America as well, all of those in the House.

[Mike88]

So Salvini will return as Interior Minister? Will Silvio "Bunga Bunga" Berlusconi take any cabinet position?

From what I've heard in the media, President of the Senate is a possibility.

[jaichind]

Why does

https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/scrutini/20220925/scrutiniCI

show 146 FPTP seats for the lower house. I thought there were 147 FPTP seats ..

the 147th is Aosta Valley. It is not included in that calculation

Got it thanks.  I guess a similar question

https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/senato/scrutini/20220925/scrutiniSI

has 67 FPTP seats for the Senate.  But I thought there were 74 such FPTP seats.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Why does

https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/scrutini/20220925/scrutiniCI

show 146 FPTP seats for the lower house. I thought there were 147 FPTP seats ..

the 147th is Aosta Valley. It is not included in that calculation

Got it thanks.  I guess a similar question

https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/senato/scrutini/20220925/scrutiniSI

has 67 FPTP seats for the Senate.  But I thought there were 74 such FPTP seats.

Six of them are the Trentino-Alto Adige ones [the region has no PR part in the Senate so it's computed separately] and the 74th is again Aosta Valley.

[Andrea]

All calculations in the distribution of PR seats at the House

https://dait.interno.gov.it/documenti/Camera_riparto_italia_20220925.pdf


MPs elected at the House
https://dait.interno.gov.it/documenti/Politiche2022_Eletti_Camera_Italia.pdf
https://dait.interno.gov.it/documenti/Politiche2022_Eletti_Camera_Estero.pdf

MPs elected at the Senate
https://dait.interno.gov.it/documenti/Politiche2022_Eletti_Senato_Italia.pdf
https://dait.interno.gov.it/documenti/Politiche2022_Eletti_Senato_Estero.pdf

Some have been elected in more constituencies, so they will have decide where giving up.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

This map is normalized to the parties vote overall, so the range for M5S is different from the one for FdI, which is different from the one for Lega, etc.

So one takeaway, from looking at this is that if any alliance wants to win a majority in the post-EU Bailout environment, they need strong appeal relative to the baseline in both the North and South. This is very hard to achieve as a single party, with Lega's 2019 EU election results being the most recent example - a situation quickly lost after their failed gamble for early elections. It was also the effective situation in both of Conte's governments: coalitions between a northern party and the southern M5S. When I use those terms, I am referring to what is seen on the economic indicators like GDP/per capita with Rome essentially as the dividing line, not a specific definition using say the Po or old borders of the Two Sicily's.

This is especially visible among the Left, once we understand that voter movements went M5S -> PD and PD -> A-IV in relation to 2018. PD picked up what support M5S has in the north, most visible in Genoa, but also lost some voters to Renzi. Holding said voters would make them even more of a northern party. Like their support in Red Tuscany didn't collapse, it just got outnumbered when compared to a more numerous foe. M5S, sucked of those voters who saw themselves as more right then left, are now the progressive option in the South, best seen by how they held up in Naples, Catania, Palermo, etc. By contrast, I'm not sure how well the right understands this reality rather than lucked into it. Forza and partially FdI carried the conservative Banner in the south, with Lega and FdI carried the north.

I am, as ever, obsessed with the mess that's Basilicata.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

For those who are interested, Mastella's wife got 14% in her constituency of Benevento, which is pretty impressive but of course very much not enough to win, and the list got crumbs elsewhere.

[Antonio the Sixth]

For those who are interested, Mastella's wife got 14% in her constituency of Benevento, which is pretty impressive but of course very much not enough to win, and the list got crumbs elsewhere.

hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

[Antonio the Sixth]

In an election marked by wild swings, one thing stayed the same: PD still managed to sweep the expat seats, winning 4/8 seats in the House and 3/4 in the Senate. The right only got 2 seats in the House and 0 in the Senate. They got really screwed by the reduction in seats there, as all the Senate constituencies were now effectively SMDs, and all but one House constituency had one or two seats.

[Andrea]

And Tabacci lives for another day.

[Ex-Assemblyman Steelers]

So Salvini will return as Interior Minister? Will Silvio "Bunga Bunga" Berlusconi take any cabinet position?

From what I've heard in the media, President of the Senate is a possibility.

He is going to be Minister of Youth

[If my soul was made of stone]

So Salvini will return as Interior Minister? Will Silvio "Bunga Bunga" Berlusconi take any cabinet position?

From what I've heard in the media, President of the Senate is a possibility.

He is going to be Minister of Youth

Minister for LGBT Rights (he's a quarter lesbian)

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

The centre-left bloc seems to have improved sizably with poorer constituencies (for instance, it scored +7 in Campania 1, a whopping +9 in Sardinia, +7 in the third Rome FPTP district which is the city's poorest and the one where it increased the most, +7 in Settimo Torinese which is Turin's most classically industrial working class suburb) and barely or not at all with the richest ones (it actually lost ground in central Rome, central Milan, Bergamo). This is not surprising - some M5S voters came back for sure, and Calenzi had to take from somewhere - but still somewhat ironic. Then, on the one hand Nature Is Healing, on the other hand this just goes to show how damn stupid and sh**tty the 2018 round was...

[Progressive Pessimist]

Congratulations to Italy for breaking the glass ceiling...in the f***ing worst way possible...

At the very least, given Italy's history, Meloni's government will probably implode spectacularly sooner or later. I guess we can look forward to that?

[adma]

Congratulations to Italy for breaking the glass ceiling...in the f***ing worst way possible...

At the very least, given Italy's history, Meloni's government will probably implode spectacularly sooner or later. I guess we can look forward to that?

I wonder how much Pollyannaish wishful think (not least among those who voted *this time*) might be instilled that FdI represents some kind of latent benignish-big-tent evolution-beyond a la the heirs to Peronism in Argentina...