Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Letta is leaving the PD leadership.

https://twitter.com/Radio1Rai/status/1574347116767576070

"Unsatisfactory result. In the next few days we will bring together the party organs to speed up the path that will lead to a congress. I will not re-run as a candidate. This legislature will be the most right-wing"

Good f**king riddance. Not that I have much hope that his successor will be an improvement...

Something, something, the future we (defined as weak elusive weirdos) could have had... they could always bring back Zingaretti, who will be without a job in a few months anyway, but perhaps that's giving the average PD apparatchik too much credit.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

It seems M5S will beat out Center-Left bloc in terms of FPTP seats which is reflective of the more concentrated nature of the MS5 vote. 

In the House or Senate?

It seems almost certain in the Senate and most likely House too

No, this is false. The FPTP count in the Chamber of Deputies is 12 for the Centre-Left and 10 for the M5S, and even that in the Senate is 6 for the Centre-Left and 5 for the M5S thanks to Trentino-Südtirol electing all Senators from the majoritarian part for some weird reason.

Ah .. you are right about Trentino-Südtirol.  I did not take that in to account.  For the Senate I just figure M5S will have some more senators to come when Sicily comes in.

Sicily is pretty much almost entirely in, the few sections remaining won't change the current leaders (which are CDX in 4 seats, M5S in 1 seat and De Luca in 1 seat).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Anyway, it looks like the dust has settled on 59 FPP seats for the right in the Senate, and 121 in the House. It looks like they were a lot luckier with marginal seats in the House for some reason.

PR-wise, they look set to get 57 in the Senate (off-chance of 58) and 115 in the House, along with 2 expat seats. So this all adds up to 116 seats in the Senate (58%) and 238 in the House (59.5%). The largest majorities for the right in the whole Republican history, if I'm remembering right. Although thankfully still a far cry from the most pessimistic predictions.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Anyway, it looks like the dust has settled on 59 FPP seats for the right in the Senate, and 121 in the House. It looks like they were a lot luckier with marginal seats in the House for some reason.

PR-wise, they look set to get 57 in the Senate (off-chance of 58) and 115 in the House, along with 2 expat seats. So this all adds up to 116 seats in the Senate (58%) and 238 in the House (59.5%). The largest majorities for the right in the whole Republican history, if I'm remembering right. Although thankfully still a far cry from the most pessimistic predictions.

I don't think the right was luckier with marginals in the Chamber (after all the difference between 121 and 59×2 is just 3), I believe the difference is largely due to the weird system that made Trentino-Südtirol have more FPTP seats in the Senate.

58-59% for the right would be surprisingly low relative to expectations (even mine and I never bought into the idea that they might reach two thirds - I was expecting a little above 60%) and it is actually pretty much the same share of seats they got in 1994 and 2001 if a smidgen higher. Everything must change for everything to remain the same...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Anyway, it looks like the dust has settled on 59 FPP seats for the right in the Senate, and 121 in the House. It looks like they were a lot luckier with marginal seats in the House for some reason.

PR-wise, they look set to get 57 in the Senate (off-chance of 58) and 115 in the House, along with 2 expat seats. So this all adds up to 116 seats in the Senate (58%) and 238 in the House (59.5%). The largest majorities for the right in the whole Republican history, if I'm remembering right. Although thankfully still a far cry from the most pessimistic predictions.

I don't think the right was luckier with marginals in the Chamber (after all the difference between 121 and 59×2 is just 3), I believe the difference is largely due to the weird system that made Trentino-Südtirol have more FPTP seats in the Senate.

I haven't done a systematic breakdown (I'll try to get to it soon!), but anecdotally while browsing through the House results I saw a lot of right-wing wins by less than 2 points. By contrast there were only 2 such wins in the Senate (one in Trentino hilariously, and another in Foggia against M5S).

[Lord Halifax]

I was wondering is Forza Italia likely to disintegrate when Berlusconi dies? and if so, who is most likely to get their vote?

[Oryxslayer]

This map is normalized to the parties vote overall, so the range for M5S is different from the one for FdI, which is different from the one for Lega, etc.

So one takeaway, from looking at this is that if any alliance wants to win a majority in the post-EU Bailout environment, they need strong appeal relative to the baseline in both the North and South. This is because each side now has different priorities, or different perceptions/reactions/justifications for the same issues. This is very hard to achieve as a single party, with Lega's 2019 EU election results being the most recent example - a situation quickly lost after their failed gamble for early elections. It was also the effective situation in both of Conte's governments: coalitions between a northern party and the southern M5S. When I use those terms, I am referring to what is seen on the economic indicators like GDP/per capita with Rome essentially as the dividing line, not a specific definition using say the Po or old borders of the Two Sicily's.

This is especially visible among the Left, once we understand that voter movements went M5S -> PD and PD -> A-IV in relation to 2018. PD picked up what support M5S has in the north, most visible in Genoa, but also lost some voters to Renzi. Holding said voters would make them even more of a northern party. Like their support in Red Tuscany didn't collapse, it just got outnumbered when compared to a more numerous foe. M5S, sucked of those voters who saw themselves as more right then left, are now the progressive option in the South, best seen by how they held up in Naples, Catania, Palermo, etc. By contrast, I'm not sure how well the right understands this reality rather than lucked into it. Forza and partially FdI carried the conservative Banner in the south, with Lega and FdI carried the north.

[Sir Mohamed]

I'm skeptical that new govt will last all too long. Italian cabinets are shortlived and I'd be surprised if Moloni makes it half-way through that 5 year legislative term. If recent precedents are followed, she'd be replaced by someone around 2024. By another right-wing that makes things even worse, before some technocrat like Draghi or Monti is appointed for the remainder of the term.

Anyway, this result is bad news for Europe and the Western alliance after all. Possibly for the stability of the Eurozone, too.

[Estrella]

/snip

A nominally social democratic party and a nominally centrist liberal technocratic party have no business having basically the same patterns of support, but that's Italy for you.

[palandio]

/snip

Good maps. There seems to be an error regarding the FdI percentage in Lombardia 4, though.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

/snip

A nominally social democratic party and a nominally centrist liberal technocratic party have no business having basically the same patterns of support, but that's Italy for you.

Their patterns of support are superficially similar but hardly the same - look at how they did in the rural North (i.e. the right-wing base). They are like two roads running down the same hill but one following a gentle but steady slope and the other alternating steep parts and plateaus. Obviously yes, the M5S is a completely different road... but I have reason to talk since I live in the area of the country where they get the closest to a crossroads.

[jaichind]

A-IV vote seems highly correlated with the PD vote.  I guess the center-left vote in the South mostly went with M5S

[Oryxslayer]

/snip

Good maps. There seems to be an error regarding the FdI percentage in Lombardia 4, though.

Thanks for catching that I had 20.8 not 30.8. Fixed.

[parochial boy]

Slightly random question, but is there any reason Aosta still maintains it's big regionalist vote?

I mean for all the "French/Arpitan" stuff the region is still very overwhelmingly Italian speaking in practice and doesn't rseem to really have the big cultural distinctiveness that South Tyrol does

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Slightly random question, but is there any reason Aosta still maintains it's big regionalist vote?

I mean for all the "French/Arpitan" stuff the region is still very overwhelmingly Italian speaking in practice and doesn't rseem to really have the big cultural distinctiveness that South Tyrol does

I mean Valle d'Aosta overwhelmingly conducts official business in Italian but Arpitan/Patois is far from dead (although I am not sure how much of a factor it is in support for UV and the rest). Still, it is a very small, fairly remote and kind of insular region with extensive autonomy and a distinct cultural background, so it's not surprising that it has maintained its own partially separate politics to me. Maybe it would not be the case if all this time it had just been a province of Piedmont but we'll never know.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Slightly random question, but is there any reason Aosta still maintains it's big regionalist vote?

I mean for all the "French/Arpitan" stuff the region is still very overwhelmingly Italian speaking in practice and doesn't rseem to really have the big cultural distinctiveness that South Tyrol does

It's absolutely culturally distinctive, and plenty of people do speak French or Patois. I mean maybe not as much as Alto Adige, but more so than Trentino.

The political distinctiveness is mostly inherited and/or a product of the region's special status encouraging local thinking. It has eroded somewhat in the past decade (Lega getting the regional presidency was a grim milestone) but I don't think it will disappear anytime soon.

[jaichind]

Why does

https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/scrutini/20220925/scrutiniCI

show 146 FPTP seats for the lower house. I thought there were 147 FPTP seats ..

[Antonio the Sixth]

The Interior Ministry published a (tentative, since there are still a few dozen unreported precincts) distribution of PR seats, which gives 114 seats to the right in the House and 56 in the Senate - one fewer than I estimated in each. Not sure if the results moved a bit since I last calculated them or if I didn't use the right formula, but either way, worth noting.

FI gets 22 seats in the House and 9 in the Senate - so far not enough to be decisive in either, but we'll have to see who the winners of FPP districts are. FI needs 16 more in the House and 7 more in the Senate, so well within reach.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Interior Ministry published a (tentative, since there are still a few dozen unreported precincts) distribution of PR seats, which gives 114 seats to the right in the House and 56 in the Senate - one fewer than I estimated in each. Not sure if the results moved a bit since I last calculated them or if I didn't use the right formula, but either way, worth noting.

How are the PR seats doled out again? If I remember right they still have constituencies but... it's done nationally? So are the number of seats worked out nationally and then just filled out at constituency level without having to align with votes cast in them, or...?

[Antonio the Sixth]

The Interior Ministry published a (tentative, since there are still a few dozen unreported precincts) distribution of PR seats, which gives 114 seats to the right in the House and 56 in the Senate - one fewer than I estimated in each. Not sure if the results moved a bit since I last calculated them or if I didn't use the right formula, but either way, worth noting.

How are the PR seats doled out again? If I remember right they still have constituencies but... it's done nationally? So are the number of seats worked out nationally and then just filled out at constituency level without having to align with votes cast in them, or...?

I'm pretty sure the party distribution is national for the House (they are still broken down by constituency, but only after the national party distribution). In the Senate, I'm not sure. It's possible they're still allotted regionally, which would explain FI's relative underperformance (higher effective threshold).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm pretty sure the party distribution is national for the House (they are still broken down by constituency, but only after the national party distribution).

Right. This is the part I struggle with... just... what? It seems completely nonsensical?

[Ferguson97]

Can't believe they made Mussolini a woman in the reboot. Wokeness run amuck.

[Logical]

The Interior Ministry published a (tentative, since there are still a few dozen unreported precincts) distribution of PR seats, which gives 114 seats to the right in the House and 56 in the Senate - one fewer than I estimated in each. Not sure if the results moved a bit since I last calculated them or if I didn't use the right formula, but either way, worth noting.

FI gets 22 seats in the House and 9 in the Senate - so far not enough to be decisive in either, but we'll have to see who the winners of FPP districts are. FI needs 16 more in the House and 7 more in the Senate, so well within reach.

Are the PR seats distributed in 2 steps (by coalition list and then by parties inside the list) or directly by parties?

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

I'm pretty sure the party distribution is national for the House (they are still broken down by constituency, but only after the national party distribution).

Right. This is the part I struggle with... just... what? It seems completely nonsensical?

Italy just have a normal electoral law challenge (screaming, crying, throwing up)

[If my soul was made of stone]

I'm pretty sure the party distribution is national for the House (they are still broken down by constituency, but only after the national party distribution).

Right. This is the part I struggle with... just... what? It seems completely nonsensical?

Italy just have a normal electoral law challenge (screaming, crying, throwing up)

The year is 2057. Italians head to the polls for a referendum on reducing the size of the Chamber to 15 (plus 29 winner's bonus seats) elected by Borda count. The proposal is supported by all major parties except Lega (dei Ticinesi)