Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[Alcibiades]

I’m not voting for them to win, I’m voting for them to make sure that other parties don’t cross the threshold.

Found that Italian passport behind the sofa yet, huh?

[WD]

I am certain that PSOL will be voting for no one, lmao.

[PSOL]

I’m not voting for them to win, I’m voting for them to make sure that other parties don’t cross the threshold.

So, because you want the impending hard-right government, arguably Italy's first since World War II, to have as big a majority as possible.

The next government’s seat count has no bearing on these objectives

I am certain that PSOL will be voting for no one, lmao.

I found it inside my pasta this morning, I had accidentally dropped it with the meatballs

[PSOL]

I’m not voting for them to win, I’m voting for them to make sure that other parties don’t cross the threshold.

You would like to vote for a microparty to stop another microparty from crossing the threshold? What other parties are you even talking about?

The parties polling 4% or lower on the latest EMG poll

Also I am supporting Unita Populare, the other UP.

[FrancoAgo]

I would vote Unione popolare, if there is not change in meantime, and i'm long time italian citizen, or better a natural born italian citizen, or my family is italian from since the piemontese invaded the Lazio

[VPH]

What's Tabacci's Christian centrist/center-left party up to this election?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

What's Tabacci's Christian centrist/center-left party up to this election?

Seemingly intent on running a common list with Di Maio and Sala.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's recently come out that both Salvini and Berlusconi had meetings with Russian diplomats shortly before breaking with Draghi. How unexpected and shocking.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

It's recently come out that both Salvini and Berlusconi had meetings with Russian diplomats shortly before breaking with Draghi. How unexpected and shocking.

More precisely, Salvini and a close associate of his (Antonio Capuano, former Forza Italia Deputy) had these meetings - related to Salvini's famous planned trip to Moscow - where they also discussed the possibility of Lega leaving the Draghi government. La Stampa (the newspaper breaking the story) attributed the documents to Italian intelligence but Franco Gabrielli, Draghi's undersecretary, quickly denied that.

[rob in cal]

  What is the deal with Italexit? Who are their voters and if they clear the threshold would their delegates vote for Meloni if she needed them?
  speaking of thresholds, when the dust settles, which of the smaller parties are likely to be running on their own, and thus likely to absorb votes that might not get any representation?

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's recently come out that both Salvini and Berlusconi had meetings with Russian diplomats shortly before breaking with Draghi. How unexpected and shocking.

More precisely, Salvini and a close associate of his (Antonio Capuano, former Forza Italia Deputy) had these meetings - related to Salvini's famous planned trip to Moscow - where they also discussed the possibility of Lega leaving the Draghi government. La Stampa (the newspaper breaking the story) attributed the documents to Italian intelligence but Franco Gabrielli, Draghi's undersecretary, quickly denied that.

Berlusconi had a meeting too (he denies it, of course, but it's being reported by Repubblica and others so I know who I trust).

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

It's recently come out that both Salvini and Berlusconi had meetings with Russian diplomats shortly before breaking with Draghi. How unexpected and shocking.

More precisely, Salvini and a close associate of his (Antonio Capuano, former Forza Italia Deputy) had these meetings - related to Salvini's famous planned trip to Moscow - where they also discussed the possibility of Lega leaving the Draghi government. La Stampa (the newspaper breaking the story) attributed the documents to Italian intelligence but Franco Gabrielli, Draghi's undersecretary, quickly denied that.

Berlusconi had a meeting too (he denies it, of course, but it's being reported by Repubblica and others so I know who I trust).

Is FdI the most pro-Europe/pro-NATO rightist party at this point?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

It's recently come out that both Salvini and Berlusconi had meetings with Russian diplomats shortly before breaking with Draghi. How unexpected and shocking.

More precisely, Salvini and a close associate of his (Antonio Capuano, former Forza Italia Deputy) had these meetings - related to Salvini's famous planned trip to Moscow - where they also discussed the possibility of Lega leaving the Draghi government. La Stampa (the newspaper breaking the story) attributed the documents to Italian intelligence but Franco Gabrielli, Draghi's undersecretary, quickly denied that.

Berlusconi had a meeting too (he denies it, of course, but it's being reported by Repubblica and others so I know who I trust).

Is FdI the most pro-Europe/pro-NATO rightist party at this point?

I would not call FdI more pro-EU than FI at all. I am not quite sure about pro-NATO (Berlusconi of course was long personally close to Putin, which never stopped him from proclaiming his strong Atlanticism).

[Oryxslayer]

It's recently come out that both Salvini and Berlusconi had meetings with Russian diplomats shortly before breaking with Draghi. How unexpected and shocking.

More precisely, Salvini and a close associate of his (Antonio Capuano, former Forza Italia Deputy) had these meetings - related to Salvini's famous planned trip to Moscow - where they also discussed the possibility of Lega leaving the Draghi government. La Stampa (the newspaper breaking the story) attributed the documents to Italian intelligence but Franco Gabrielli, Draghi's undersecretary, quickly denied that.

Berlusconi had a meeting too (he denies it, of course, but it's being reported by Repubblica and others so I know who I trust).

Is FdI the most pro-Europe/pro-NATO rightist party at this point?

More that I feel their friends on the right have deeper/older ties with Putin and Russia. So they just end up looking good by comparison in a weird way. This happened earlier in the year with Salvini getting the flack when Putin attacked Ukraine (photos of him in that shirt didn't help) and the FdI getting enough wiggle room to make the pivot in support of Ukraine.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, I'd say FdI is the most pro-NATO and FI the most pro-EU. Weird dynamic to be sure.

Anyway, feels like I'd try my hand at a simple polling tracker (just of an average of the last polls from each individual pollster who published one in the past week) as these are otherwise quite noisy. Here's those conducted since 07/21, the day of dissolution:

PD/Art1: 23.8%
FdI: 23.6%
Lega: 13.9%
M5S: 10.1%
FI: 7.6%
+E/Azione: 5%
SI/Greens: 3.3%
IV: 2.4%
Italexit: 2.1%
IpF: 1.2%

United right at 45.1% (-0.5). Hypothetical united center-left at 35.7% (+1.5). M5S lost 0.9.

[Mike88]

It seems that PD is negotiating with Renzi:

https://twitter.com/ultimora_pol/status/1553104522666545156

The PD opens to Italia Viva, #Letta: "Dialogue with Renzi, he is our interlocutor"

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

  What is the deal with Italexit? Who are their voters and if they clear the threshold would their delegates vote for Meloni if she needed them?
  speaking of thresholds, when the dust settles, which of the smaller parties are likely to be running on their own, and thus likely to absorb votes that might not get any representation?

Italexit's deal is, I believe, accurately described by its name... their voters seem like they should be disproportionately lower middle class Northerners, which fits an anti-system and basically far-right-adjacent M5S splinter. I doubt they would choose to support the CDX to give it a parliamentary majority, but who knows how easily they could get bribed.

I think Italexit, Italia Viva, an array of various far-left groups, and perhaps some declared neofascists (is Forza Nuova even still legal?) will run on their own. For the rest I'm sure of the opposite or I don't see things as clear.

[Conservatopia]

It's not yet finalised but here's how things stand for the Centre-right Coalition (CDX):

Fratelli d'Italia
Lega	Lega per Salvini Premier
	Sardinian Action Party
	Italian Liberal Right
Forza Italia-UDC	Forza Italia
	Union of the Centre
	New Italian Socialist Party
	Pensioners' Party
	Christian Revolution
	Animalist Movement
Noi con l'Italia
Coraggio Italia

There will be a number of right-of-centre regionalist parties (AAC, MpA, DB etc) running on the lists of one of the main three partners and a joint list (last time named "Berlusconi-Salvini-Meloni") for the Italians Abroad.

[VPH]

How are results going to be broken down? By party, or just by coalition?

[Antonio the Sixth]

How are results going to be broken down? By party, or just by coalition?

Both. Parties for the PR seats, coalitions for FPP.

[MRCVzla]

It's not yet finalised but here's how things stand for the Centre-right Coalition (CDX):

Fratelli d'Italia
Lega	Lega per Salvini Premier
	Sardinian Action Party
	Italian Liberal Right
Forza Italia-UDC	Forza Italia
	Union of the Centre
	New Italian Socialist Party
	Pensioners' Party
	Christian Revolution
	Animalist Movement
Noi con l'Italia
Coraggio Italia

There will be a number of right-of-centre regionalist parties (AAC, MpA, DB etc) running on the lists of one of the main three partners and a joint list (last time named "Berlusconi-Salvini-Meloni") for the Italians Abroad.

Not necessary "Rivoluzione Cristiana" but Gianfranco Rotondi' current christ-dem one-man microparty is named "Verde e Popolare" (Green and Popular), just saying. Also inside Lega (per Salvini Premier) there's still around the original Lega Nord who conserves their autonomy as a party despite being outside the basically the same (kind complicate to resume). Nor rule out a possible rejoin from Toti' Italia al Centro (Cambiamo!-IDeA) to the coalition, which in past days has been more than likely rather than run with Renzi or alone.

Weekend update:
- The agreement of the joint list between PD, Articolo 1, PSI and minor social christian party DemoS is official, PD' list nickname will be "Italy Democratic and Progressive", Letta, in an attempt to counteract the M5S term limit rule, has suggested that potential PD' FPTP candidates should not run on PR lists to avoid being re-fished (parachuted) if they lose their district (as was the case with various party heavyweights in 2018). Meanwhile Zingaretti has confirmed he's running
- Tomorrow Monday, it will be decided whether Azione/+Europa will finally run alongside the center-left, although Calenda is still not sure whether to go in the same alliance from Fratoianni to Di Maio, but understands that the current electoral law is what it is if the scenario is to avoid a supermajority of the Cdx, Calenda also today posted a letter to Letta with their toughts about how is going the "Republican agreement" (no alliance with any who voted against Draghi, among others). Meanwhile former FI ministers Gelmini and Carfagna have officially joined Azione and are more favorable to the line of a "Rome scenario" (the center running apart)
- Also tomorrow will be unveiled the symbol and program between Di Maio and Tabacci' centrist list (the latter is the key to not needing to collect signatures*), the name of the list will be Civic Commitment ("Impegno Civico"). Rumors / false news would have indicated that Di Maio would be reserved for the safe district of Modena (even the local PD branch did not see it with good eyes), but the minister has denied that information (most likely he runs in some district in Campania)
- House' Speaker Roberto Fico will respect the M5S' two-term limit rule and he's not seeking reelection, but others two-term M5S MP like Davide Crippa (former M5S group leader in the House) or minister Federico D'Inca' had left the party.
- Small centrist lists have appeared in recent days, Federico Pizzarotti together with Piercamillo Falasca have launched the National Civic List "L'Italia c'e'" advocated so that mayors and various independents can present within the list, it will also run without the need to collect signatures (*) as Italia Viva has changed the name of its House group to include this reform-oriented micro-party (of which some IV' MPs are also members)
- Other centrist list running alone is Referendum and Democracy headed by Marco Capatto, an exponent always linked to the Radicals and defender not only of pan-Europeanism but also that referendums such as those regarding euthanasia or cannabis legalization can be carried out, members of Possibile and Volt' italian branch will also be on this list as well MP Alessandro Fusacchia (elected with +Europa in 2018), also has (kind of) the support of former FI MP Elio Vito.
- Another centrist list that will run on its own will be Clemente Mastella' Noi Di Centro, who, although he offered himself to the center-left, will finally present his own candidates, especially in his native Campania.
- Also moves on the fringe right. Italexit will run on a joint list with fellow M5S splinter, anti-system Alternativa, Paragone has also announced some of the candidates, several with an antivaxx/anti-COVID/green pass measures profile. Also in the COVID-denialist camp' will run a list called "Vita" (Life) who is headed by MP Sara Cunial.

(*)

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The lists that want to stand for the September elections have to present at least 750 physical signatures in each constituency in each chamber (almost 70k in total if they want to stand in all the districts) unless 1) They have a Parliamentary Group in some of the Chambers on 12/31/2021 (Coraggio Italia whose group was dissolved last June still counts, but not groups formed after that date like Insieme per il Futuro or the United for the Constitution Senate group) or 2) They have reached above the 3% threshold or the 1% threshold in coalitions to be part of the PR' seat distribution in the last elections. Lega, FI, FdI, PD and M5S fulfill both, LeU, IV, already mentioned CI fulfill the first (as well microparties who helped to form a group in the Senate like PSI did for IV), and +Europa-Centro Democratico and Noi con l'Italia-UDC fulfill the second (in addition ofc to South Tyrolean SVP with its special threshold for linguistic minorities). LeU recently changed the name of its group so that its constituent parties Articolo Uno and SI (especially the latter as a member of the Green and Left Alliance) can be favored, as did Italia Viva so that the civic list of L'Italia c'e' can be presented as I mentioned before.

With such tight deadlines due to early elections and even more so with the entire collection process and a large part of the campaign taking place in the middle of August, it will be difficult for many small lists to be able to collect all the physical signatures necessary to present themselves in all constituencies. Some micro-parties and lists support the option of a digital collection of signatures to debug the process, but (as I understand) it requires the will of President Mattarela or the electoral authority (the Ministry of the Interior) to give the green light to that initiative (hope I am correct, i'm writing this from memory)

[Coldstream]

It seems that PD is negotiating with Renzi:

https://twitter.com/ultimora_pol/status/1553104522666545156

The PD opens to Italia Viva, #Letta: "Dialogue with Renzi, he is our interlocutor"

Good news from a vote-splitting perspective, though I hope they don’t offer Renzi more than he’s worth.

[S019]

Calenda and Letta will meet today at 11 AM Italy time

It seems that PD is negotiating with Renzi:

https://twitter.com/ultimora_pol/status/1553104522666545156

The PD opens to Italia Viva, #Letta: "Dialogue with Renzi, he is our interlocutor"

Good news from a vote-splitting perspective, though I hope they don’t offer Renzi more than he’s worth.

Yesterday evening he said that Forza and Lega would toast (as in clink glasses) in the event of a PD-Azione agreement and he has been concern trolling about a “third pole.”

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Calenda and Letta will meet today at 11 AM Italy time

It seems that PD is negotiating with Renzi:

https://twitter.com/ultimora_pol/status/1553104522666545156

The PD opens to Italia Viva, #Letta: "Dialogue with Renzi, he is our interlocutor"

Good news from a vote-splitting perspective, though I hope they don’t offer Renzi more than he’s worth.

Yesterday evening he said that Forza and Lega would toast (as in clink glasses) in the event of a PD-Azione agreement and he has been concern trolling about a “third pole.”

Two days ago he also joined the right-wing in accusing the PD of being the party of taxes because Letta reproposed his signature idea of raising the estate tax to pay for a grant to the youth. I think he knows that without Calenda he is going nowhere which is why he made that bizarre comment.

[Antonio the Sixth]

And speaking of which, Letta and Calenda have reached a coalition agreement. Apparently they're going to split the FPP seats 70-30, which is frankly ridiculous when their polling numbers are more on the order of 80-20 or 85-15. I guess Calenda drove a hard bargain, and Letta felt he really needed him (if nothing else, to isolate Renzi).

But now many parties to the left of PD are dissatisfied and making noises about leaving the negotiating table with PD. We'll see what they do, but I'll still count today as a relative win for the paltry chances we have at stopping a right-wing majority.