Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[MRCVzla]

Latest updates: Conte re-confirmed yesterday on an interview what the M5S is running alone (no alliances neither to the left yet), Renzi also sayed IV will running alone (for now), Di Maio meanwhile is assembly his centrist list along Tabacci' Centro Democratico or Milano mayor Beppe Sala (also some notes says former Parma mayor Federico Pizzarotti would be also around). As the exodus from Forza Italia continues as Mara Carfagna confirmed she's leaving FI joing fellow ministers Gelmini and Brunetta to the mixed group in the way to likely joining Azione or other centrist parties (as today, 9 MPs left FI since the start of the political crisis).

Many simbols were unveiled: The Europa Verde-Sinistra Italiana joint list will finally named as "Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra" (Greens and Left Alliance), still unclear if they will running alone or be partner of either centre-left or the M5S. The souveranist left (anti-Draghi, anti-NATO and a little bit antivaxx too...) around the "United for the Constitution" Senate group also presented their list named "Italy Sovereign and Popular", supported among others by Marco Rizzo' Partito Comunista or Antonio Ingroia (who led a few left-wing souveranist lists in the last two elections), neither other members of the group like M5S-splinter Alternativa or what remains of Italia dei Valori are joining this list (yet). As in the centre-right camp, Maurizio Lupi presented a new symbol for Noi con l'Italia who probably will be used again as the coalition' "fourth leg" (in 2018 were a common list along the UDC -screwed by M5S' strong performance in the South-, today are now a full party and likely are trying to secure some safe FPTP seats)

In a minor but kind of relevant note for the next legislature, as the Senate is still working through August 6, the minimal number to form a group as been lowered from 10 to 7 senators.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Many simbols were unveiled: The Europa Verde-Sinistra Italiana joint list will finally named as "Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra" (Greens and Left Alliance), still unclear if they will running alone or be partner of either centre-left or the M5S. The souveranist left (anti-Draghi, anti-NATO and a little bit antivaxx too...) around the "United for the Constitution" Senate group also presented their list named "Italy Sovereign and Popular", supported among others by Marco Rizzo' Partito Comunista or Antonio Ingroia (who led a few left-wing souveranist lists in the last two elections), neither other members of the group like M5S-splinter Alternativa or what remains of Italia dei Valori are joining this list (yet). As in the centre-right camp, Maurizio Lupi presented a new symbol for Noi con l'Italia who probably will be used again as the coalition' "fourth leg" (in 2018 were a common list along the UDC -screwed by M5S' strong performance in the South-, today are now a full party and likely are trying to secure some safe FPTP seats)

I am glad SI-EV settled on a normal name instead of that hideous NUOVE ENERGIE idea, rare Italian political onomatology W. I am sure Alternativa will join what I will affectionately name the left-wing cranks (on the other side, Italexit will presumably join with Simone Di Stefano and Mario Adinolfi to form the right-wing cranks). The mention of Ingroia made me want to check what Luigi De Magistris is doing and apparently he is pushing hard for a left-wing populist alliance with M5S, Greens and Left - and his microparty of course; lots of contacts between him and good old Alessandro Di Battista.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

The mention of Ingroia made me want to check what Luigi De Magistris is doing and apparently he is pushing hard for a left-wing populist alliance with M5S, Greens and Left - and his microparty of course; lots of contacts between him and good old Alessandro Di Battista.

I'm sure you aren't surprised by my one-note takes on modern Italian politics at this point, but I think I'd have to vote for this if it happened.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

The mention of Ingroia made me want to check what Luigi De Magistris is doing and apparently he is pushing hard for a left-wing populist alliance with M5S, Greens and Left - and his microparty of course; lots of contacts between him and good old Alessandro Di Battista.

I'm sure you aren't surprised by my one-note takes on modern Italian politics at this point, but I think I'd have to vote for this if it happened.

I could not quite blame you but that is also a good reason why it must not happen. Although it is interesting that those parties are seemingly pretty close on policy but also very different in their vote bases...

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

The mention of Ingroia made me want to check what Luigi De Magistris is doing and apparently he is pushing hard for a left-wing populist alliance with M5S, Greens and Left - and his microparty of course; lots of contacts between him and good old Alessandro Di Battista.

I'm sure you aren't surprised by my one-note takes on modern Italian politics at this point, but I think I'd have to vote for this if it happened.

I could not quite blame you but that is also a good reason why it must not happen. Although it is interesting that those parties are seemingly pretty close on policy but also very different in their vote bases...

The Greens and the designated left-of-the-social-democrats party having different voter bases to the designated labour party? Many such cases

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

The mention of Ingroia made me want to check what Luigi De Magistris is doing and apparently he is pushing hard for a left-wing populist alliance with M5S, Greens and Left - and his microparty of course; lots of contacts between him and good old Alessandro Di Battista.

I'm sure you aren't surprised by my one-note takes on modern Italian politics at this point, but I think I'd have to vote for this if it happened.

I could not quite blame you but that is also a good reason why it must not happen. Although it is interesting that those parties are seemingly pretty close on policy but also very different in their vote bases...

The Greens and the designated left-of-the-social-democrats party having different voter bases to the designated labour party? Many such cases

However actually "designated" labour parties often have a voter base that is less like M5S and more like in between M5S and PD. Except the Labour Party par excellence of course, as long as the Tories keep bribing the old with ground rent and the Greens keep being a joke.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

The mention of Ingroia made me want to check what Luigi De Magistris is doing and apparently he is pushing hard for a left-wing populist alliance with M5S, Greens and Left - and his microparty of course; lots of contacts between him and good old Alessandro Di Battista.

I'm sure you aren't surprised by my one-note takes on modern Italian politics at this point, but I think I'd have to vote for this if it happened.

I could not quite blame you but that is also a good reason why it must not happen. Although it is interesting that those parties are seemingly pretty close on policy but also very different in their vote bases...

The Greens and the designated left-of-the-social-democrats party having different voter bases to the designated labour party? Many such cases

However actually "designated" labour parties often have a voter base that is less like M5S and more like in between M5S and PD. Except the Labour Party par excellence of course, as long as the Tories keep bribing the old with ground rent and the Greens keep being a joke.

Correct, which is why everyone involved ought to stop resisting the obvious realignment of the Italian left now that the opportunity may be on the horizon. Maybe if M5S manages to not blow itself up by the time Girlboss Meloni inevitably falters...

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

The mention of Ingroia made me want to check what Luigi De Magistris is doing and apparently he is pushing hard for a left-wing populist alliance with M5S, Greens and Left - and his microparty of course; lots of contacts between him and good old Alessandro Di Battista.

I'm sure you aren't surprised by my one-note takes on modern Italian politics at this point, but I think I'd have to vote for this if it happened.

I could not quite blame you but that is also a good reason why it must not happen. Although it is interesting that those parties are seemingly pretty close on policy but also very different in their vote bases...

The Greens and the designated left-of-the-social-democrats party having different voter bases to the designated labour party? Many such cases

However actually "designated" labour parties often have a voter base that is less like M5S and more like in between M5S and PD. Except the Labour Party par excellence of course, as long as the Tories keep bribing the old with ground rent and the Greens keep being a joke.

Correct, which is why everyone involved ought to stop resisting the obvious realignment of the Italian left now that the opportunity may be on the horizon. Maybe if M5S manages to not blow itself up by the time Girlboss Meloni inevitably falters...

On the contrary, the M5S is a stupid party even by our standards and it is necessary that it blows itself up instead of furthering this ideological zombie apocalypse, especially if you want something better to arise from its ashes. I suppose, say, Roberto Fico wants a job afterwards...

[MRCVzla]

Today was an held an important meeting of the centre-right at Montecitorio palace (House' place) between Meloni, Salvini, Berlusconi, their respective parties high ranks, plus Lupi (NCI), De Poli (UDC) and Brugnaro (Coraggio Italia).
https://twitter.com/SBidimedia/status/1552401942936264707

The center-right tonight during the Montecitorio summit would also have reached an agreement on the premiership

As in 2018, in the event of a victory, the coalition party that gets the most votes will have the right to indicate the prime minister

https://twitter.com/SBidimedia/status/1552396435601121286

Repubblica writes that the center-right has closed an agreement for the division of the 221 single-member constituencies on these numbers:
FDI 98 (44%) Lega 70 (32%) FI 42 (19%) NcI 11 (5%)

The parties' share taking the latest average polls were:
FDI 49% Lega 32% FI 18% NcI 1%

NCI quota also includes CI and UDC will run inside of FI' lists, All parties are running with their own lists to a total of 5, also they agreed to present a common list in the overseas constituencies, as they did -the big 3- in 2018.

Meanwhile the internal problems in the M5S continues around founder Grillo' two-term limit rule as Conte seems being against of it.
https://twitter.com/SBidimedia/status/1552304675663273985

According to the Corriere della Sera, there would have been an ultimatum from Grillo to Conte: "If you waive the second mandate, I leave the Movement"

[Mike88]

M5S is doing everything in their power to be declared dead after this election (if it's not already, they just don't know it yet). I have a hunch they will poll in single digits. But, they will not be missed, IMO.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/SBidimedia/status/1552396435601121286

Repubblica writes that the center-right has closed an agreement for the division of the 221 single-member constituencies on these numbers:
FDI 98 (44%) Lega 70 (32%) FI 42 (19%) NcI 11 (5%)

The parties' share taking the latest average polls were:
FDI 49% Lega 32% FI 18% NcI 1%

That's a pretty good deal for FdI, all considered. aside from NCI being overrepresented (which is kind of inevitable for a fake party that exists as a personal vehicle for a bunch of has-beens), they're getting almost exactly their share of the polls, which is very generous considering that the other parties were arguing for taking into account past results. At the end of the day FdI has the most to gain from the right-wing coalition to win a majority, as that would almost certainly make Meloni PM. Of course, Salvini and Berlusconi are also putting their political survival at stake, so I'm not surprised they found an agreement. The Italian right always falls in line (while the Italian left usually falls apart - bur inshallah maybe not this time).

[FrancoAgo]

Hom many is not important, is what the point
not all the seats are the same

[Oryxslayer]

Hom many is not important, is what the point
not all the seats are the same

Yes, this is important given that sometimes these pacts give one group a bunch of the safest seats, or a different group the guaranteed losses. I'm sure Lega will for example get a lot of the north, just given their historic base and current decline.

However, this is only the second major FPTP election in recent history. Last time M5S snuck in and swept the south, and now they will be lucky to get anything. This time is looking like a conservative majority, but with limited data to pull from, only a portion of the seats can be decidedly assumed to be safe for left or right. And depending on the coalition the conservatives might just sweep all but the Left's strongholds - as suggested by a some of the potential alliance models - at which point seat distribution south of Rome won't even matter. So it all seems a bit up in the air.

[jaichind]

Hom many is not important, is what the point
not all the seats are the same

Yes, this is important given that sometimes these pacts give one group a bunch of the safest seats, or a different group the guaranteed losses. I'm sure Lega will for example get a lot of the north, just given their historic base and current decline.

However, this is only the second major FPTP election in recent history. Last time M5S snuck in and swept the south, and now they will be lucky to get anything. This time is looking like a conservative majority, but with limited data to pull from, only a portion of the seats can be decidedly assumed to be safe for left or right. And depending on the coalition the conservatives might just sweep all but the Left's strongholds - as suggested by a some of the potential alliance models - at which point seat distribution south of Rome won't even matter. So it all seems a bit up in the air.

That is my superficial view as well: that the South will be the battleground on who picks up those MS5 seats.   I assume that FdI will get assigned most of those seats

[FrancoAgo]

the only battle ground will be few seats in the old red belt
will be a landslide in the single seat for the right

[Mike88]

La Stampa has a report saying that Salvini's team had contacts with the Russian embassy in Rome, in which the embassy asked if Lega would consider removing their support to Draghi's government. Salvini is denying the report's accusations.

[PSOL]

After some time thinking, I will not be abstaining this election, as my vote has the impact of tanking most of the centrist grifter parties and completely breaking PD’s ability to regroup once and for all, allowing better organizations to have breathing room.

I am voting for the UP alliance on account of them being the least s•••e option on being the least likely to join the governing coalition and being right there in tanking the centrist party. The PCI, one of the strongest in Europe in the past, has completely gone full stupid in adopting left-populism. It is time to crash this M5S driven-train with no survivors.

[Estrella]

After some time thinking, I will not be abstaining this election, as my vote has the impact of tanking most of the centrist grifter parties and completely breaking PD’s ability to regroup once and for all, allowing better organizations to have breathing room.

I am voting for the UP alliance on account of them being the least s•••e option on being the least likely to join the governing coalition and being right there in tanking the centrist party. The PCI, one of the strongest in Europe in the past, has completely gone full stupid in adopting left-populism. It is time to crash this M5S driven-train with no survivors.

The PCI has completely gone full stupid in continuing with the Historic Compromise forty years past its sell-by date and turned themselves into Lib Dems all'italiano in the process. A few cranks with the same name does not a successor make.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

After some time thinking, I will not be abstaining this election, as my vote has the impact of tanking most of the centrist grifter parties and completely breaking PD’s ability to regroup once and for all, allowing better organizations to have breathing room.

I am voting for the UP alliance on account of them being the least s•••e option on being the least likely to join the governing coalition and being right there in tanking the centrist party. The PCI, one of the strongest in Europe in the past, has completely gone full stupid in adopting left-populism. It is time to crash this M5S driven-train with no survivors.

I am almost impressed by how wrong or deluded everything in this post is. You're not an Italian citizen as far as I am aware so you won't be voting and you will have no impact. Not that Unione Popolare is going to "tank" anyone since it will be lucky to get 2% - let alone the PD, which is the last party in Italy to have problems "regrouping". Also you might like to know that the PCI dissolved in 1991. And somehow even your last sentence makes no sense, since UP's designated leader is Luigi De Magistris and he wants to form an alliance with Conte!

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

After some time thinking, I will not be abstaining this election, as my vote has the impact of tanking most of the centrist grifter parties and completely breaking PD’s ability to regroup once and for all, allowing better organizations to have breathing room.

I am voting for the UP alliance on account of them being the least s•••e option on being the least likely to join the governing coalition and being right there in tanking the centrist party. The PCI, one of the strongest in Europe in the past, has completely gone full stupid in adopting left-populism. It is time to crash this M5S driven-train with no survivors.

I am almost impressed by how wrong or deluded everything in this post is. You're not an Italian citizen as far as I am aware so you won't be voting and you will have no impact. Not that Unione Popolare is going to "tank" anyone since it will be lucky to get 2% - let alone the PD, which is the last party in Italy to have problems "regrouping". Also you might like to know that the PCI dissolved in 1991. And somehow even your last sentence makes no sense, since UP's designated leader is Luigi De Magistris and he wants to form an alliance with Conte!

I mean, certainly PSOL's pronouncements on broader leftist strategy would be a bit more compelling if his favored parties in the US were at least capable of winning Multnomah County Commissioner of Elementary School Mural Removal. Supporting an alliance polling at 2% is a step up.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

After some time thinking, I will not be abstaining this election, as my vote has the impact of tanking most of the centrist grifter parties and completely breaking PD’s ability to regroup once and for all, allowing better organizations to have breathing room.

I am voting for the UP alliance on account of them being the least s•••e option on being the least likely to join the governing coalition and being right there in tanking the centrist party. The PCI, one of the strongest in Europe in the past, has completely gone full stupid in adopting left-populism. It is time to crash this M5S driven-train with no survivors.

The PCI has completely gone full stupid in continuing with the Historic Compromise forty years past its sell-by date and turned themselves into Lib Dems all'italiano in the process. A few cranks with the same name does not a successor make.

This is... a very oversimplified and not quite accurate description of what happened, although you are not really wrong. Of course, you're right that neither the current microparty called Partito Comunista Italiano nor the other microparties called a variation of that are "successors" of the original - except for Rifondazione Comunista which definitely is but also is not where the bulk of officials or voters went and is now a sort of zombie.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

After some time thinking, I will not be abstaining this election, as my vote has the impact of tanking most of the centrist grifter parties and completely breaking PD’s ability to regroup once and for all, allowing better organizations to have breathing room.

I am voting for the UP alliance on account of them being the least s•••e option on being the least likely to join the governing coalition and being right there in tanking the centrist party. The PCI, one of the strongest in Europe in the past, has completely gone full stupid in adopting left-populism. It is time to crash this M5S driven-train with no survivors.

I am almost impressed by how wrong or deluded everything in this post is. You're not an Italian citizen as far as I am aware so you won't be voting and you will have no impact. Not that Unione Popolare is going to "tank" anyone since it will be lucky to get 2% - let alone the PD, which is the last party in Italy to have problems "regrouping". Also you might like to know that the PCI dissolved in 1991. And somehow even your last sentence makes no sense, since UP's designated leader is Luigi De Magistris and he wants to form an alliance with Conte!

I mean, certainly PSOL's pronouncements on broader leftist strategy would be a bit more compelling if his favored parties in the US were at least capable of winning Multnomah County Commissioner of Elementary School Mural Removal. Supporting an alliance polling at 2% is a step up.

Unione Popolare / Potere al Popolo is not polling at 2% - it is so small I don't even know if it gets regularly polled. I was setting that as their likely ceiling (PaP got 1.1% in 2018).

[PSOL]

I’m not voting for them to win, I’m voting for them to make sure that other parties don’t cross the threshold.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I’m not voting for them to win, I’m voting for them to make sure that other parties don’t cross the threshold.

So, because you want the impending hard-right government, arguably Italy's first since World War II, to have as big a majority as possible.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I’m not voting for them to win, I’m voting for them to make sure that other parties don’t cross the threshold.

You would like to vote for a microparty to stop another microparty from crossing the threshold? What other parties are you even talking about?