Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[Progressive Pessimist]

Salvini must resent the way that Meloni has supplanted him as the far right leader, perhaps the best hope for Italian Democracy is that this divide can be manipulated somehow.

I only really have a rudimentary understanding of Italian politics, but what is the difference between the Brothers of Italy and the League? Does Italy really need two major far-right parties?

There are many posts on this thread about this, but I also understand they're hard to dig up immediately so I'll sum it up by saying that they exist separately because they have completely different histories [Lega: strange vehicle for Northern conservative resentment with a kooky history in support of separatism which later sought to become a more typical "right-wing populist" party and get a nationwide appeal / FdI: continuation of the national conservative tradition (AN) which is heir to the neo-fascist tradition from before the 90s (MSI) and suffice to say its base has never been in the North]. There are of course differences in policy and issue emphasis too, mostly flowing from that.

Thanks for responding. It seems like Italy is on a pretty dark trajectory, unless what others are saying is true and this likely far-right government does in fact end up falling short by the time the election comes around.

[Oppo]

https://twitter.com/nickwhithorn/status/1550232411128139776?s=21&t=I3s5fa1Um...

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Maybe Salvini and Meloni can work out a deal where they rotate the PM role with each getting 2.5 years of a 5 years term.

Either there’s more than one rotation scheduled or there’s an invitation for government collapse as soon as the first PM relinquishes power. That’s the most precedent set twice now in Israel.

[njwes]

So does Draghi remain on as the Prime Minister-in-name until the election? Or will the president appoint a stopgap/caretaker PM?

[Beagle]

Electoral system: Rosatellum (modified per reduction of MPs); Chamber: 245 PR, 147 FPTP, 8 Abroad; Senate: 122 PR, 74 FPTP, 4 Abroad (1 per each constituency); PR thresholds: 10% per coalitions, 3% per party list (1% to be included in the PR distribution) Linguistic minorites threshold (SVP in Trentino-Alto Adige/South Tyrol) is 20% to be included in Chamber' PR distribution (in Senate, the South Tyrol will only elect by their 6 fixed FPTP seats)

Sorry for the dumb question, but does this mean that a party running on its own needs 3%, while a party running in a coalition needs 1% of the total vote to get PMs?
Also:
Are Az/+Eu a party list or a coalition for threshold purposes?
Is Giovanni Toti's outfit running with IV or is he seeking a path back to the centre right?
I was also wondering if some of the controversial politicians of the (not-so) distant past are still vying for relevancy or are they retired now: Gianfranco Fini and Nichi Vendola come to mind.

[Coldstream]

*Surely* Di Maio, Toti and Renzi have to work together? If not with the PD at least with each other - otherwise they all go down. I get they are egos, but they can’t possibly think they have any hope of relevance without cooperation.

I’m resigned that this won’t happen, and Meloni will win an even bigger majority than the polls show because this is the world we live in - but still, someone should try and broker a deal across the
Pro-Eu/Pro Nato centre & left.

[Antonio the Sixth]

*Surely* Di Maio, Toti and Renzi have to work together? If not with the PD at least with each other - otherwise they all go down. I get they are egos, but they can’t possibly think they have any hope of relevance without cooperation.

I’m resigned that this won’t happen, and Meloni will win an even bigger majority than the polls show because this is the world we live in - but still, someone should try and broker a deal across the
Pro-Eu/Pro Nato centre & left.

Di Maio and Renzi specifically working together seems. Rather implausible given their history, but then again, stranger things have happened in Italian politics. If they end up together it will almost certainly be as part of a PD-led coalition, though.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Maybe Salvini and Meloni can work out a deal where they rotate the PM role with each getting 2.5 years of a 5 years term.

Either there’s more than one rotation scheduled or there’s an invitation for government collapse as soon as the first PM relinquishes power. That’s the most precedent set twice now in Israel.

That's the precedent which Italy itself set in the 1980s! Craxi was supposed to only lead the government for half the legislature, but then he was reappointed after his first cabinet fell and the DC only accepted begrudgingly... and then forced early elections when Craxi resigned the second time with a surreal motion of no confidence. For what it's worth, I don't think Salvini and Meloni will make any sort of rotation deal.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

So does Dragging remain on as the Prime Minister-in-name until the election? Or will the president appoint a stopgap/caretaker PM?

Draghi will remain President of the Council to handle current affairs until a new government takes the oath of office, which is the normal procedure.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Electoral system: Rosatellum (modified per reduction of MPs); Chamber: 245 PR, 147 FPTP, 8 Abroad; Senate: 122 PR, 74 FPTP, 4 Abroad (1 per each constituency); PR thresholds: 10% per coalitions, 3% per party list (1% to be included in the PR distribution) Linguistic minorites threshold (SVP in Trentino-Alto Adige/South Tyrol) is 20% to be included in Chamber' PR distribution (in Senate, the South Tyrol will only elect by their 6 fixed FPTP seats)

Sorry for the dumb question, but does this mean that a party running on its own needs 3%, while a party running in a coalition needs 1% of the total vote to get PMs?
Also:
Are Az/+Eu a party list or a coalition for threshold purposes?
Is Giovanni Toti's outfit running with IV or is he seeking a path back to the centre right?
I was also wondering if some of the controversial politicians of the (not-so) distant past are still vying for relevancy or are they retired now: Gianfranco Fini and Nichi Vendola come to mind.

1. Any list needs to get 3% to get Deputies or Senators through the proportional part, whether it is inside a coalition or not. I think what the 1% means is that votes for lists which garnered less than that aren't considered when PR seats are distributed.
2. Az/+E are going to run a common list.
3. It is unclear what Toti (or Brugnaro) will do, but the original idea of joining IV seems dead?
4. Fini and Vendola are basically retired from electoral politics. I think Vendola is still a member of SI but he is mostly involved with poetry and social activism now. Fini is completely outside of this and presumably has no interest in any currently active party.

[xelas81]

Can party can just only run on PR lists?

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

I refuse to suffer alone:

https://twitter.com/nonleggerlo/status/1550505114837962757

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Can party can just only run on PR lists?

No, the list has to be linked to a FPTP candidate. I am not sure why you'd want to do that though...

[Coldstream]

*Surely* Di Maio, Toti and Renzi have to work together? If not with the PD at least with each other - otherwise they all go down. I get they are egos, but they can’t possibly think they have any hope of relevance without cooperation.

I’m resigned that this won’t happen, and Meloni will win an even bigger majority than the polls show because this is the world we live in - but still, someone should try and broker a deal across the
Pro-Eu/Pro Nato centre & left.

Di Maio and Renzi specifically working together seems. Rather implausible given their history, but then again, stranger things have happened in Italian politics. If they end up together it will almost certainly be as part of a PD-led coalition, though.

Di Maio seems to have made a complete about face on everything M5S stood for though and embraced the EU.

[MRCVzla]

The South Tyrol autonomists SVP are running alone this time, last time they ran apart of any coalition was in 2008, in 2018 ran with the centre-left but after the regional/provincial elections of that year they have the Lega as is government partner (in the 2019 EP election they votes were linked nationally to FI). Anyway, they have very safe their 2 Bolzano districts in both chambers (plus 1 PR seat they probably will get in the Chamber), the question mark should be the proper Bolzano italian-friendly district in the Senate who remained unchanged and is a competitive seat for both Csx, Cdx and the SVP itself.

In Aosta Valley, PD wants to form a "great autonomist front" between local parties UV, AV and Mouv, but they have some minor problems in the formation of the alliance. In 2018, the Chamber seat was won by M5S meanwhile the Senate seat was held by the PD-backed autonomist candidate, as in 2018 and in the latest regional election, the Center-right was divided between the Lega and FI-FDI, likely will happen again unless last minute moves.

Centrists updates: Calenda rejects being in the same coalition "to the far-left (SI/EV) to Di Maio", he's confident to pull a similar result to their Rome mayoral run (20%) running alone or with other centrists (sure), as Azione is collecting some of the politicians who recently left FI like Senator Cangemi or some rumors point about Ministers Gelmini and Brunetta (or even Mara Carfagna) to join the party in next days.

Meanwhile in the far-left, Rifondazione Comunista (member of the Popular Union alliance) had proposed to the M5S to form a "popular alliance" coalition.

Rumors say former PD leader Nicola Zingaretti will resign to his post of President of the Lazio Region to ran in the General Elections, this could also push a snap regional election (before March 2023) in the capital' region (in case he's elected, probably sure if he ran in the PR quota or in a very safe Rome district).

They are also (minor) problems at the Centre-right coalition in the distribution of the districts per party. FDI wants to use the most recent opinon polls meanwhile Lega and FI prefer a 6-month poll average (less penalizating for both parties)

[Antonio the Sixth]

*Surely* Di Maio, Toti and Renzi have to work together? If not with the PD at least with each other - otherwise they all go down. I get they are egos, but they can’t possibly think they have any hope of relevance without cooperation.

I’m resigned that this won’t happen, and Meloni will win an even bigger majority than the polls show because this is the world we live in - but still, someone should try and broker a deal across the
Pro-Eu/Pro Nato centre & left.

Di Maio and Renzi specifically working together seems. Rather implausible given their history, but then again, stranger things have happened in Italian politics. If they end up together it will almost certainly be as part of a PD-led coalition, though.

Di Maio seems to have made a complete about face on everything M5S stood for though and embraced the EU.

I mean, yeah, but that doesn't mean old grudges are suddenly forgotten. The rhetoric between PD and M5S before and during the 2018 campaign was extremely violent (with some M5S figure at one point even devolving into QAnon-adjacent rhetoric). And Renzi's only reason for being in politics at this point seems to be to make life hell for his enemies. It's possible they end up together for self-preservation purposes, but it won't be a happy alliance.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

*Surely* Di Maio, Toti and Renzi have to work together? If not with the PD at least with each other - otherwise they all go down. I get they are egos, but they can’t possibly think they have any hope of relevance without cooperation.

I’m resigned that this won’t happen, and Meloni will win an even bigger majority than the polls show because this is the world we live in - but still, someone should try and broker a deal across the
Pro-Eu/Pro Nato centre & left.

Di Maio and Renzi specifically working together seems. Rather implausible given their history, but then again, stranger things have happened in Italian politics. If they end up together it will almost certainly be as part of a PD-led coalition, though.

Di Maio seems to have made a complete about face on everything M5S stood for though and embraced the EU.

I mean, yeah, but that doesn't mean old grudges are suddenly forgotten. The rhetoric between PD and M5S before and during the 2018 campaign was extremely violent (with some M5S figure at one point even devolving into QAnon-adjacent rhetoric). And Renzi's only reason for being in politics at this point seems to be to make life hell for his enemies. It's possible they end up together for self-preservation purposes, but it won't be a happy alliance.

Renzi's only reason for being in politics at this point is to own the left let's be honest (you could say that was always his main reason, but that is a different conversation). I am not sure what Di Maio wants his deal to be now, but as you said he and Renzi don't quite make much sense together. I feel like the former is much more likely to end up with the PD.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I mean, yeah, but that doesn't mean old grudges are suddenly forgotten. The rhetoric between PD and M5S before and during the 2018 campaign was extremely violent (with some M5S figure at one point even devolving into QAnon-adjacent rhetoric). And Renzi's only reason for being in politics at this point seems to be to make life hell for his enemies. It's possible they end up together for self-preservation purposes, but it won't be a happy alliance.

Given the way Italian politics tends to go, from this description it almost sounds crashingly, hilariously inevitable.

[Lord Halifax]

what sort of people still support Forza Italia?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

what sort of people still support Forza Italia?

This is another question that has already come up, but in short: they tend to be either a subsection of People of Money who will think of themselves as the "centro" part of "centrodestra" or quite a number of Southern voters (particularly in Sicily I think), who appear to skew unemployed.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I refuse to suffer alone:

https://twitter.com/nonleggerlo/status/1550505114837962757

What the hell? Especially with Salvini. Is this a normal thing in Italy?

Meloni though...it's too bad she's so hideous on the inside.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

or quite a number of Southern voters (particularly in Sicily I think), who appear to skew unemployed.

There seemed to be a lean towards housewives, or am I misremembering?

[Antonio the Sixth]

or quite a number of Southern voters (particularly in Sicily I think), who appear to skew unemployed.

There seemed to be a lean towards housewives, or am I misremembering?

Probably. Come to think of it, I wouldn't be surprised if the strongest predictor of FI vote was how many hours of TV per day a person watched on average between, say, 1990 and 2010.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

or quite a number of Southern voters (particularly in Sicily I think), who appear to skew unemployed.

There seemed to be a lean towards housewives, or am I misremembering?

Probably. Come to think of it, I wouldn't be surprised if the strongest predictor of FI vote was how many hours of TV per day a person watched on average between, say, 1990 and 2010.

Probably impossible, but someone should do this analysis with both Berlusconi and Trump voters.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

or quite a number of Southern voters (particularly in Sicily I think), who appear to skew unemployed.

There seemed to be a lean towards housewives, or am I misremembering?

Yes of course (I was meaning to include them as well). Naturally, they may also be the wives of people in the first category I mentioned.