Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[Logical]

Reducing the number of Italian MPs is a crime against comedy. The next parliament could hardly dream of being as chaotic and entertaining as this one.

[MRCVzla]

Snap elections could be held most likely... not in October 2th, but on September either the 18th or 25th. On 25th is Jewish' New Year but the italian jewish community don't see a problem to the election being held that day. Right now at the Quirinale are Fico and Casellati along with President Mattarella to being agree on a election day. Draghi is (at the moment of redact this) going to Quirinale to sign the decree about the dissolution of the parliament (activation of the Art. 88 of Italian Constitution) and in the next hours we know the the definitive election day.

Many consecuences about the fall of the government and the snap election. Letta has announced that the PD-M5S coalition it's over, seems a little bit suicidal as we are going into election with the (adapted) Rosatellum electoral law, and some projections with this scenario shows the centre-right having super majority of 2/3 of the seats in both chambers... unless the centrist bloc (Azione/+Europa, Italia Viva) or PD itself concentrates the so called "Draghi vote" (people anger of the govt. fall, likely former M5S or FI voters).

Speaking of the centrist bloc, FI longtime ranks and ministers Mariastella Gelmini and Renato Brunetta are anounced to left the party and are most likely joining Azione, also FI senator Andrea Cangemi who was one of the few centre-right senators to vote yesterday for the confidence against the party line also left the party.

[jaichind]

Bloomberg reports that Italy Set to Hold Early Elections on September 25

[MRCVzla]

It's official, Parliament dissolved, Snap elections on September 25
"Important" dates:
August 12-14: Deposit of Electoral symbols (parties/lists to will run) at the Viminale (Interior ministry)
August 21-22: Deadline to present electoral lists/FPTP candidates
September 10: Deadline to publish opinion polls (poll ban)
October 28 or later (likely): New government will be formed.

Electoral system: Rosatellum (modified per reduction of MPs); Chamber: 245 PR, 147 FPTP, 8 Abroad; Senate: 122 PR, 74 FPTP, 4 Abroad (1 per each constituency); PR thresholds: 10% per coalitions, 3% per party list (1% to be included in the PR distribution), Linguistic minorites threshold (SVP in Trentino-Alto Adige/South Tyrol) is 20% to be included in Chamber' PR distribution (in Senate, the South Tyrol will only elect by their 6 fixed FPTP seats)

[Oryxslayer]

So unless something changes, the reconstituted Conservative alliance is likely going to end up make Meloni PM...right? Yuck.

[jaichind]

So unless something changes, the reconstituted Conservative alliance is likely going to end up make Meloni PM...right? Yuck.

I assume the Right-wing alliance of Fdl Lega and FI will have a deal where the leader of the largest of the 3 becomes PM.  If so I wonder if both Fdl and Lega might de facto undermine each other during the campaign and the voting in a race to be the bigger party.

[Oryxslayer]

So unless something changes, the reconstituted Conservative alliance is likely going to end up make Meloni PM...right? Yuck.

I assume the Right-wing alliance of Fdl Lega and FI will have a deal where the leader of the largest of the 3 becomes PM.  If so I wonder if both Fdl and Lega might de facto undermine each other during the campaign and the voting in a race to be the bigger party.

They had that sort of deal in 2018, and it was a complete upset that Lega topped the alliance: polling for months had FI up by 2-4 points and the final result flipped that margin in favor of Salvini. I don't exactly remember how the alliance members treated each other, but the Right-wing did win that election, it just broke up following the populist surge to give the people the coalition it appeared they wanted.

But if PD and M5S are gonna run separately then I have a hard time seeing the Right-wing parties not get a large majority. Both former govvernment partners have enough of a base to prevent total tactical voting consolidation during the next few months. Maybe the major narrative will focus on who will be in the conservative  government and who leads it if victory seems assured though.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Average of the polls conducted in the past week:
FdI 22.8%
PD 22.2%
Lega 14.6%
M5S 11.0%
FI 8.2%
+E/Azione 4.6%
Misc. left of PD 4.4%
IV 2.6%
Italexit (lol) 2.4%

So yeah. On those numbers a united right is at 45.6%, enough to win a comfortable majority even if there's some degree of consolidation. Of course it's not necessarily impossible to bring it down - especially as they're catching a lot of flak for their role in torpedoing Draghi in this final act. We'll see how it plays out, but this is the election that should make you nervous if you care about the future of the EU and NATO.

[jaichind]

Any news on what alliances will look like outside the Right win alliance? Will  IpF run with anyone?  What about the various PD splinters?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Any news on what alliances will look like outside the Right win alliance? Will  IpF run with anyone?  What about the various PD splinters?

No, but we'll probably find out pretty soon, given the relatively short filing deadlines.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

This will be the first GE after the expiration of Berlusconi’s public office ban.

Meloni’s party will probably do best, but once the results are in, the deals are being made and the regular instability of Italian politics is threatening new governments, he could get much leverage out of what is set to be a small Forza Italia group.

Don’t sleep on the corrupt king!

[Antonio the Sixth]

This will be the first GE after the expiration of Berlusconi’s public office ban.

Meloni’s party will probably do best, but once the results are in, the deals are being made and the regular instability of Italian politics is threatening new governments, he could get much leverage out of what is set to be a small Forza Italia group.

Don’t sleep on the corrupt king!

Paradoxically then, he wouldn't want his coalition to do too well - otherwise Lega and FdI might have a majority on their own (nightmare scenario, but sadly plausible). So that might lead to some fun, er, teamwork depending on how the polls look.

[Mike88]

This will be the first GE after the expiration of Berlusconi’s public office ban.

Meloni’s party will probably do best, but once the results are in, the deals are being made and the regular instability of Italian politics is threatening new governments, he could get much leverage out of what is set to be a small Forza Italia group.

Don’t sleep on the corrupt king!

Paradoxically then, he wouldn't want his coalition to do too well - otherwise Lega and FdI might have a majority on their own (nightmare scenario, but sadly plausible). So that might lead to some fun, er, teamwork depending on how the polls look.

Time to remember this: Lady's and Gentleman, I give you Giorgia Meloni.

Io Sono Giorgia, Sono una donna, sono una madre, sono una cristiana.

[crals]

Average of the polls conducted in the past week:
FdI 22.8%
PD 22.2%
Lega 14.6%
M5S 11.0%
FI 8.2%
+E/Azione 4.6%
Misc. left of PD 4.4%
IV 2.6%
Italexit (lol) 2.4%

So yeah. On those numbers a united right is at 45.6%, enough to win a comfortable majority even if there's some degree of consolidation. Of course it's not necessarily impossible to bring it down - especially as they're catching a lot of flak for their role in torpedoing Draghi in this final act. We'll see how it plays out, but this is the election that should make you nervous if you care about the future of the EU and NATO.

Di Maio nowhere to be seen?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Average of the polls conducted in the past week:
FdI 22.8%
PD 22.2%
Lega 14.6%
M5S 11.0%
FI 8.2%
+E/Azione 4.6%
Misc. left of PD 4.4%
IV 2.6%
Italexit (lol) 2.4%

So yeah. On those numbers a united right is at 45.6%, enough to win a comfortable majority even if there's some degree of consolidation. Of course it's not necessarily impossible to bring it down - especially as they're catching a lot of flak for their role in torpedoing Draghi in this final act. We'll see how it plays out, but this is the election that should make you nervous if you care about the future of the EU and NATO.

Di Maio nowhere to be seen?

Di Maio too small and polled inconsistently.

[Mike88]

Average of the polls conducted in the past week:
FdI 22.8%
PD 22.2%
Lega 14.6%
M5S 11.0%
FI 8.2%
+E/Azione 4.6%
Misc. left of PD 4.4%
IV 2.6%
Italexit (lol) 2.4%

So yeah. On those numbers a united right is at 45.6%, enough to win a comfortable majority even if there's some degree of consolidation. Of course it's not necessarily impossible to bring it down - especially as they're catching a lot of flak for their role in torpedoing Draghi in this final act. We'll see how it plays out, but this is the election that should make you nervous if you care about the future of the EU and NATO.

Di Maio nowhere to be seen?

The last poll that showed numbers for his party, only gave him 1.6%. In other polls, his numbers may be so small that he fits in the "Other parties" category. I don't think he has a lot, or any at all, political strength in order to lead a successful campaign.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I think a "comfortable" right-wing majority is the most likely outcome, but of course many things can still happen. I've also seen some people talk about a "supermajority", which I don't quite comprehend and is probably indicative of a misunderstanding of how constitutional revision in Italy works... in any case I don't expect the CDX to exceed 60%.

I am very sad about the timing of this election. I broke the timeline - first parliamentary election I am eligible for, first one in the second half of the year since the Republic. I also may not seek to be a poll worker this time around (and I still haven't seen the money from June lol).

[Coldstream]

Salvini must resent the way that Meloni has supplanted him as the far right leader, perhaps the best hope for Italian Democracy is that this divide can be manipulated somehow.

[Mike88]

I think a "comfortable" right-wing majority is the most likely outcome, but of course many things can still happen. I've also seen some people talk about a "supermajority", which I don't quite comprehend and is probably indicative of a misunderstanding of how constitutional revision in Italy works... in any case I don't expect the CDX to exceed 60%.

I am very sad about the timing of this election. I broke the timeline - first parliamentary election I am eligible for, first one in the second half of the year since the Republic. I also may not seek to be a poll worker this time around (and I still haven't seen the money from June lol).

I also agree that the rightwing will win, and FdI will probably be the largest party, but I'm not sure it will be a stable solution. Meloni and Salvini don't get along that easily now, right? Specially since FdI surpassed Lega in the polls, and Lega crashed like a comet entering the atmosphere. We'll see. Don't feel bad about being a poll worker, here in Portugal, several poll workers haven't received their money yet, and the elections were in January xD.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Salvini must resent the way that Meloni has supplanted him as the far right leader, perhaps the best hope for Italian Democracy is that this divide can be manipulated somehow.

I only really have a rudimentary understanding of Italian politics, but what is the difference between the Brothers of Italy and the League? Does Italy really need two major far-right parties?

[Oryxslayer]

This will be the first GE after the expiration of Berlusconi’s public office ban.

Meloni’s party will probably do best, but once the results are in, the deals are being made and the regular instability of Italian politics is threatening new governments, he could get much leverage out of what is set to be a small Forza Italia group.

Don’t sleep on the corrupt king!

To this end, I wonder if it is Berlusconi's or FI's interests to join an alliance with Lega and FdI. Obviously their action at the confidence vote doesn't suggest it is likely, but the poor yet stable state of FI polling compared to their Right-wing partners suggest that there is a constituency who are explicitly not opting to leave FI. The maximum political advantage might be gained by running separate of the populists (but maybe with some of the minors) on a "both sides/reasonable right" platform that wins votes separate of the bigger coalition but gains the leverage to squeeze them at the negotiating table.

Or maybe this is the exactly wrong take to have, and running alone will cause the remaining FI voters to flee in response to the fear of a wasted vote. We'll see what happens when the lists get registered.

Salvini must resent the way that Meloni has supplanted him as the far right leader, perhaps the best hope for Italian Democracy is that this divide can be manipulated somehow.

I only really have a rudimentary understanding of Italian politics, but what is the difference between the Brothers of Italy and the League? Does Italy really need two major far-right parties?

Different backgrounds and approaches.

Lega was at one time the Northern League, a separatist/regionalist party for the economically advantaged north. This meant that the people who have long had a pro-League voting habit were all in the North. Salvini took over a party in disarray and declining identity in 2013 and reoriented it towards the cultural Far Right. He changed the name and revived it's fortunes, but most of their voters were still northerners.

During Conte I government, Salvini was the tail that wagged the M5S dog. Lega surged, eating up a chunk of the FI vote and a larger portion of the M5S vote. These were southern voters checking out an unfamiliar party that was saying the right stuff. We saw this to a degree in the EU elections with Lega winning almost 35% on its own and pushing down the peninsula geographically.

FdI has until now been a minor party. They have a reputation as 'nostalgic fascists' similar to VOX in Spain mainly because the party has not been big enough previously to define itself other than by its small cadre of voters and its predecessors. It was founded as a split from Forza and a merger with the old National Conservative AN (Alleanza Nazionale), so that influences so of its programs. FdI and the national conservative predecessors historically had a base in central Italy when compared to other conservative parties. Meloni is certainly more vocally culturally conservative on non-immigration issues than her allies.

FdI has remained in opposition during the entire 2018-2022 period, despite the populist Conte I government and the Draghi Grand Coalition. This made it attractive as Salvini fell out of favor and lost his southern vote, and then as the other Conservative parties entered the grand coalition. Those who were never quite at home with Lega but want a rightward turn - including the geographic element -  have now gone FdI.

Also Salvini, like Zemmour in France, wasn't painted in the best light following Putin's invasion of Ukraine, whereas FdI appears to have navigated that issue similar to Le Pen. But that is just one cause of many behind the evolution of the conservative vote.

[jaichind]

Maybe Salvini and Meloni can work out a deal where they rotate the PM role with each getting 2.5 years of a 5 years term.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Italy is one of those countries in which public opinion is now apt to shift quite radically over the course of a campaign: for instance the last election was assumed to be an easy victory for the Right coalition and it was assumed that the PD would not collapse catastrophically in the South. However.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Salvini must resent the way that Meloni has supplanted him as the far right leader, perhaps the best hope for Italian Democracy is that this divide can be manipulated somehow.

I only really have a rudimentary understanding of Italian politics, but what is the difference between the Brothers of Italy and the League? Does Italy really need two major far-right parties?

There are many posts on this thread about this, but I also understand they're hard to dig up immediately so I'll sum it up by saying that they exist separately because they have completely different histories [Lega: strange vehicle for Northern conservative resentment with a kooky history in support of separatism which later sought to become a more typical "right-wing populist" party and get a nationwide appeal / FdI: continuation of the national conservative tradition (AN) which is heir to the neo-fascist tradition from before the 90s (MSI) and suffice to say its base has never been in the North]. There are of course differences in policy and issue emphasis too, mostly flowing from that.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Italy is one of those countries in which public opinion is now apt to shift quite radically over the course of a campaign: for instance the last election was assumed to be an easy victory for the Right coalition and it was assumed that the PD would not collapse catastrophically in the South. However.

Italy is also a country where you can't publish polls in the last two weeks of a campaign, which means what ones you have are fairly prone to end up horribly wrong. Notably both in 2013 and 2018 M5S stood out for significantly overperforming in the actual election... but that was a time before they were so damaged and worn out.