Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Anyway, it seems like the centre-left is having a great night (on reduced turnout - but that is sadly normal for our runoffs). Guerra is winning in a landslide in Parma, Tarasconi ahead in Parma, Tommasi has a solid lead in Verona and somehow even Fiorita in Catanzaro has scored a blowout. They're also ahead in Monza, and the centre-right looks like it is winning only smaller cities.

[Andrea]

Monza is going to centre-left, 51 to 49%
They never re-elected the incumbent since the introduction of directly elected mayors. And they continued the trend today.

Only centre-left disappointment seems to be Lucca.

[Conservatopia]

Ultimately Brugnaro will, I imagine, likely form a joint list with other nobodies (IDEA, UDC, Sgarbi) to create the fourth leg of CDX's stool (a la Fitto in '18) and Giovanni Toti will run with Renzi and possibly Calenda. I can't see an IV-IaC-Az list* having much more success than Monti did though unless Draghi inexplicably decided to run as head of the list.

* I wonder if it would have painful En Marche knockoff name like Avanti! or something...

[Antonio the Sixth]

So overall seems like a pretty disappointing day for the right and a surprisingly decent one for the left? Interesting. That would continue the trend of right-wing underperformance in local elections starting in 2020.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Ultimately Brugnaro will, I imagine, likely form a joint list with other nobodies (IDEA, UDC, Sgarbi) to create the fourth leg of CDX's stool (a la Fitto in '18) and Giovanni Toti will run with Renzi and possibly Calenda. I can't see an IV-IaC-Az list* having much more success than Monti did though unless Draghi inexplicably decided to run as head of the list.

* I wonder if it would have painful En Marche knockoff name like Avanti! or something...

I would agree on the former but I am much less sure on the latter - especially about Calenda. And such a list would if anything have much less success than Monti did in all likelihood (double digits?? lol).

On the last point, Avanti! is of course the name of the historic PSI newspaper (often recycled for publications associated with the various ersatz microparties trying to carry on the PSI legacy afterwards, some of which are more right-wing than others) which makes its use pretty unlikely. But since Renzi clearly sees himself as the Italian Macron, who knows...

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

So overall seems like a pretty disappointing day for the right and a surprisingly decent one for the left? Interesting. That would continue the trend of right-wing underperformance in local elections starting in 2020.

The best part of the night was the "right-wing" candidate in Catanzaro losing vote share compared to two weeks ago and that in spite of the two significant candidates eliminated in the first round not being exactly raging leftists... perhaps next time Lega and Forza Italia will learn better than to run a university professor who was a card-carrying PD member until half a year before lol.

[FrancoAgo]

Updated my results with the run-off results
Mayoral elections, municipality over 100k inhab., and regional capitol

Catanzaro
Right (-FdI) 43,8%, (the man was a member of the PCI (communist party))to run-off 41,8%
Center-left+M5S 31,9%, to run-off 58,2% elected
Center-right dissident 13,2%
Right/FdI 9,2%
An other two candidates 1,9%

Genova
Right 55,5%, elected
Center-left+M5S 38%
Against Draghi coalition (minor left to right parties) 3,6%
An other four candidates 2,9%

L'Aquila
Right 54,4%, elected
Center-left dissident 23,8%
Center-left+M5S 20,6%
An other candidate 1,2%

Palermo
Right 47,6%, elected, the regional law is different
Center-left+M5S 29,6%
Center/Liberal 14,2%
Left/PaP 4,4%
Anti-vax 3,1%
An other candidate 1,1%

Messina
Local center+Lega 45,5%, elected as above
Right (- Lega) 27,8%
Center-left +M5S 22,9%
An other two candidates 3,8%

Monza
Right 47,1%, to run-off 48,8%
Center-left 40,1%, to run-off 51,2% elected
Local list 5,8%
An other six candidates 7%

Padova
Center-left+ M5S 58,4%, elected
Right 33,5%
An other seven candidates 8,1%

Parma
Center-left 44,2%, to run-off 66,2% elected
Right (-FdI) 21,3%, to run-off 33,8%
Local center-right 13,5%
Right/FdI 7,5%
Green 4,2%
Left/Pap+Commies 3,6%
Local center 2,7%
An other three candidates 3%

Piacenza
Center-left 39,9%, to run-off 53,5% elected
Right 37,7%, to run-off 46,5%
M5S+Left&Green 10,7%
local center-right 8,3%
An other two candidates 3,4%

Taranto
Center-left+M5S 60,6%, elected
Right 29,8%
Local list (centrist) 5,1%
Local list 4,4%

Verona
Center-left 39,8%, to run-off 53,4% elected
Right (-FI) 32,7%, to run-off 46,6%
Local centr-right+FI 23,9%
No-vax 2,6%
An other 2 candidates 2%

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I did not mention this but while the centre-left did pretty well overall last Sunday it also had its own Catanzaro-tier blunder in Barletta, with Santa Scommegna losing vote share (yes, her too) and Cosimo Cannito being re-elected in a landslide despite all the lists which had supported Carmine Doronzo in the first round - including IV, Az, SI, Italia in Comune - pairing themselves to Scommegna for the runoff.

Monza as mentioned flipped to the left (and so did Alessandria), while Lucca made the opposite journey. Como also elected a total independent (was governed by the CDX before).

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

The situation between Conte and Draghi has been tense ever since Di Maio left the M5S. The two are expected to meet next Monday but for now there is a lot of "unease" with accusations from the Five Stars that Draghi engineered the split and rumours about the party potentially leaving the government.

Relatedly, new polls have come out - some of them put IpF at significantly more than 1% (meaning 3-4%), while the long decline of the "populist" parties continues, with Lega hitting a new post-2018 low under 14% and a couple of outliers even showing M5S in single digits.

[Mike88]

The situation between Conte and Draghi has been tense ever since Di Maio left the M5S. The two are expected to meet next Monday but for now there is a lot of "unease" with accusations from the Five Stars that Draghi engineered the split and rumours about the party potentially leaving the government.

Relatedly, new polls have come out - some of them put IpF at significantly more than 1% (meaning 3-4%), while the long decline of the "populist" parties continues, with Lega hitting a new post-2018 low under 14% and a couple of outliers even showing M5S in single digits.

Draghi would still have a comfortable majority if M5S leaves the government, but M5S seems like they are just at the verge of extinction. I wasn't aware that Di Maio was able to "steal" almost a third of the M5S to his new party. If somehow, M5S ceases to exist by the next election, who would benefit? Di Maio's party or PD? I'm probably gonna rule out Lega, Berlusconi and FdI as possible options for former M5S voters.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

The situation between Conte and Draghi has been tense ever since Di Maio left the M5S. The two are expected to meet next Monday but for now there is a lot of "unease" with accusations from the Five Stars that Draghi engineered the split and rumours about the party potentially leaving the government.

Relatedly, new polls have come out - some of them put IpF at significantly more than 1% (meaning 3-4%), while the long decline of the "populist" parties continues, with Lega hitting a new post-2018 low under 14% and a couple of outliers even showing M5S in single digits.

Draghi would still have a comfortable majority if M5S leaves the government, but M5S seems like they are just at the verge of extinction. I wasn't aware that Di Maio was able to "steal" almost a third of the M5S to his new party. If somehow, M5S ceases to exist by the next election, who would benefit? Di Maio's party or PD? I'm probably gonna rule out Lega, Berlusconi and FdI as possible options for former M5S voters.

Draghi would indeed have a solid majority regardless (and the M5S seems more interested in a position of external support/confidence and supply than full opposition) but it's clear that there would be some unwillingness to just carry on after such a major change in composition.

The M5S is in a rather damaged state but it's still not particularly close to being wiped out (and of course, Di Maio's strength in Parliament is not equal to his strength among the voters). If somehow it just disappeared before the next election I would expect everyone else's polling numbers to improve but with PD and perhaps IpF taking the lion's share... however that's more or less out of the question, unless a merge happened, which in turn only seems more and more unlikely given Conte's antics. I can see the party merely fading into irrelevance though.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

The situation between Conte and Draghi has been tense ever since Di Maio left the M5S. The two are expected to meet next Monday but for now there is a lot of "unease" with accusations from the Five Stars that Draghi engineered the split and rumours about the party potentially leaving the government.

Relatedly, new polls have come out - some of them put IpF at significantly more than 1% (meaning 3-4%), while the long decline of the "populist" parties continues, with Lega hitting a new post-2018 low under 14% and a couple of outliers even showing M5S in single digits.

Draghi would still have a comfortable majority if M5S leaves the government, but M5S seems like they are just at the verge of extinction. I wasn't aware that Di Maio was able to "steal" almost a third of the M5S to his new party. If somehow, M5S ceases to exist by the next election, who would benefit? Di Maio's party or PD? I'm probably gonna rule out Lega, Berlusconi and FdI as possible options for former M5S voters.

Draghi would indeed have a solid majority regardless (and the M5S seems more interested in a position of external support/confidence and supply than full opposition) but it's clear that there would be some unwillingness to just carry on after such a major change in composition.

The M5S is in a rather damaged state but it's still not particularly close to being wiped out (and of course, Di Maio's strength in Parliament is not equal to his strength among the voters). If somehow it just disappeared before the next election I would expect everyone else's polling numbers to improve but with PD and perhaps IpF taking the lion's share... however that's more or less out of the question, unless a merge happened, which in turn only seems more and more unlikely given Conte's antics. I can see the party merely fading into irrelevance though.

Could IpF just end up joining the centre-left?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

The situation between Conte and Draghi has been tense ever since Di Maio left the M5S. The two are expected to meet next Monday but for now there is a lot of "unease" with accusations from the Five Stars that Draghi engineered the split and rumours about the party potentially leaving the government.

Relatedly, new polls have come out - some of them put IpF at significantly more than 1% (meaning 3-4%), while the long decline of the "populist" parties continues, with Lega hitting a new post-2018 low under 14% and a couple of outliers even showing M5S in single digits.

Draghi would still have a comfortable majority if M5S leaves the government, but M5S seems like they are just at the verge of extinction. I wasn't aware that Di Maio was able to "steal" almost a third of the M5S to his new party. If somehow, M5S ceases to exist by the next election, who would benefit? Di Maio's party or PD? I'm probably gonna rule out Lega, Berlusconi and FdI as possible options for former M5S voters.

Draghi would indeed have a solid majority regardless (and the M5S seems more interested in a position of external support/confidence and supply than full opposition) but it's clear that there would be some unwillingness to just carry on after such a major change in composition.

The M5S is in a rather damaged state but it's still not particularly close to being wiped out (and of course, Di Maio's strength in Parliament is not equal to his strength among the voters). If somehow it just disappeared before the next election I would expect everyone else's polling numbers to improve but with PD and perhaps IpF taking the lion's share... however that's more or less out of the question, unless a merge happened, which in turn only seems more and more unlikely given Conte's antics. I can see the party merely fading into irrelevance though.

Could IpF just end up joining the centre-left?

I'd be surprised if that didn’t happen, since I don't think Di Maio quite fits in with the shxtty liberal GREAT CENTRE gang (parts of which of course may end up joining the centre-left themselves) and running all alone would be quite the foolish endeavour.

[MRCVzla]

To add another update to Di Maio' split, they finally formed the Senate group with the help of Tabacci' Centro Democratico with the minimum of 10 senators. By Italian Senate regulations, only lists/parties what participated in the last elections can form a group or a component within the Mixed group (the latter also applies in the Camera, with a mininum of 3 MPs), as already known Italia Viva group was formed thanks to the PSI, and recently, the other main M5S split in this legislature, left-wing Alternativa, formed its Senate group thanks to Italia dei Valori -member of the extinct Civica Popolare list- and the Partito Communista (ofc all his members were former M5S), also Paragone' Italexit formed a component within the Mixed group thanks to the minor Human Value Party...

In other news, a little bit under the radar but last weekend was officially announced the common list between Sinistra Italiana and Europa Verde for the 2023 election, the name of the left-green list is "Nuove Energie" (New Energies) and is nicknamed as "the watermelon" (green outside, red inside). They commisioned an internal poll about its potential electorate, the core group is at 4% (the current combined polling between SI and EV) with a maximum potential of 13% (very very unlikely). Termometro Politico has several months already polling this common list and currently is below the 3% Rosatellum PR threshold.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

In other news, a little bit under the radar but last weekend was officially announced the common list between Sinistra Italiana and Europa Verde for the 2023 election, the name of the left-green list is "Nuove Energie" (New Energies) and is nicknamed as "the watermelon" (green outside, red inside).

SI and EV joining forces is a good development but geezum crow couldn't they pick a normal name like Sinistra Verde? This trend in Italian politics fills me with bafflement. Then again, I voted for their common list called LeAli a Spezia [pun meaning both "loyal to Spezia" and "wings for Spezia"] in the mayoral election last month, so who am I to talk.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

In other news, yesterday Draghi had to go visit an area of the Dolomites where a glacier collapsed and tragically killed at least half a dozen people, so his meeting with Conte has been postponed to tomorrow [other things have undergone a change of schedule too, like the next council of ministers or the next national council of the M5S].

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

The result of the meeting between Conte and Draghi was essentially that Conte presented a document with nine fundamental points representing the M5S's priorities [such as keeping the citizenship income intact, introduction of a minimum wage, a new better version of the controversial superbonus for buildings efficiency improvements, opposition to new big investments in fossil fuels etc.] and asked for "answers within the end of July". In the next few days the Senate will vote on converting into law the decree with the big aid package for the Ukraine crisis, and the government will test its parliamentary confidence on it; the M5S should vote in favour as it did in the first Chamber reading, but things are still tense.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

The result of the meeting between Conte and Draghi was essentially that Conte presented a document with nine fundamental points representing the M5S's priorities [such as keeping the citizenship income intact, introduction of a minimum wage, a new better version of the controversial superbonus for buildings efficiency improvements, opposition to new big investments in fossil fuels etc.] and asked for "answers within the end of July". In the next few days the Senate will vote on converting into law the decree with the big aid package for the Ukraine crisis, and the government will test its parliamentary confidence on it; the M5S should vote in favour as it did in the first Chamber reading, but things are still tense.

Well, there was a second Chamber vote today and the M5S abstained. That prompted Draghi to go to the Quirinale Palace - he did not resign of course, just had a meeting with Mattarella about the general situation the details of which have not been released, but this further shows the tense atmosphere that is in Rome right now. On to the Senate vote I guess?

[MRCVzla]

Well, the Government Crisis atmosphere is being real this time, and all depends on the Senate vote for the "DL Aiuti" (the defacto confidence vote on the government), rumors says what M5S will vote against, if this happens, seems game over (for real) for this legislature. Draghi dares to resign if this happens bc he not see his cabinet without M5S, Salvini says if M5S votes against, the Lega also will dropout the government and we go to snap elections, also Letta says if M5S is out this will mean go the polls as the most logical choice.

There will be a meeting of M5S MPs in the next hours to define what will vote. Conte has called Draghi to accord another meeting soon over the issue.

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In other electoral related news in order for the next election cycle, other two alliances were presented in the last days. Again, by the left of PD, Potere al Popolo, Rifondazione Communista, ManifestA and the Luigi Di Magistris party DemA will ran together in a list called "L'Unione Popolare" (The Popular Union), obviously inspired by NUPES/Unidas Podemos, the PaP-PRC list collected more than 1% in 2018 and they gained in the last years parliamentary representation thanks to M5S left-wing/anti-Draghi defectors.

The other joint list cames from the right-wing, as the extraparliamentary conservative party "Il Popolo della Famiglia" led by Mario Adinolfi will ran with the euroskeptic movement Exit, led by former Casapound leader Simone Di Stefano in the "Alternativa x l'Italia" (Alternative for Italy) list, their symbol originally presented included a "No Draghi 2028" reference being clear their opposition of the current PM, but for legal reasons (reference of a external figure aside of the party/list), they changed to "No Green Pass" in order also to reach the Antivaxx vote. They may have some problem if the M5S splinter Alternativa is also running in the next elections for similar naming (i guess)

[Mike88]

There will be a meeting of M5S MPs in the next hours to define what will vote. Conte has called Draghi to accord another meeting soon over the issue.

M5S has decided to not take part in the vote. According to the report, Draghi has said he will quit if M5S walks out from government and other coalition parties are aligning in the same line. However, Conte is open for more talks with Draghi, but no response has come yet from him.

[Antonio the Sixth]

New political sequence, new title. As often happens in Italian politics, things have escalated quickly. Having elections now sure would be an interesting turn of things, or in other words a massive sh*tshow. We'll see if Conte is bluffing but he might actually be deluded enough to think it's a good idea.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

New political sequence, new title. As often happens in Italian politics, things have escalated quickly. Having elections now sure would be an interesting turn of things, or in other words a massive sh*tshow. We'll see if Conte is bluffing but he might actually be deluded enough to think it's a good idea.

I think if the M5S just abstains then we will have another round of grumbles and agony probably not amounting to anything in the end, but I may be horribly wrong. Having elections now would also be incredibly stupid for most of the parties, but of course they only have themselves to blame for not changing the electoral law earlier. Nice pun, by the way.

[MRCVzla]

DL Aiuti (voted as confidence vote to the govt.) was approved 172 for and 39 against with the M5S didn't vote as announced. That didn't stop Draghi to cancel today's Council of Ministers and going to the  Qurinale anyway. Likely resignment?

According internal sources, in the yesterday' call between Conte and Draghi, the M5S leader asked the PM for help with the internal discontent in the party, but Draghi replied a la "that's not my problem".

In the case if they we going first to consultation round, some analysts and politicians like De Alema are trying to invoke the "ipotesi Amato", in reference to call the former PM and current President of the Constitutional Court Giuliano Amato to be nominated as interim PM (like happened in 1992 or 2000) for what remains to the legislature or until snap elections.

[Antonio the Sixth]

172 votes are actually more than enough for a majority, so I'm not sure what the fretting is all about. Just kick M5S out and carry on.

[jaichind]

Draghi Says He Will Resign