Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[Coldstream]

Would not Senators from Renzi and Berlusconi parties have an incentive to break ranks and vote with the government ?  A snap election most likely they lose their seats.  As much as I want a snap election where Lega sweeps into power I sort of doubt that will actually take place.

I know you have always treaded the line between responsible orthodox economic policies and the supporting the most right-wing option available, but I thought you liked the former more than the latter?

By now you should understand that "scratch a libertarian, a fascist bleeds" is a 100% accurate summary of jaichind's politics. He's the literal living embodiment of the phrase.

Aren’t Lega Nord quite economically interventionist too? I’d have thought Brothers of Italy would be more suitable for a fascist adjacent Libertarian.

Yeah, the famously economically interventionist party which *checks notes* has proposed a 15% flat income tax and also *checks notes* supports giving more autonomy to rich Northern regions.

That’s why I asked. All I knew was Salvini used to be a communist. And my question whether they were “more interventionist” than FdL.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The Italian right likes to posture in favor of Keynesian deficit spending against EU-sponsored austerity (that was true of Berlusconi in 2013 as well), but usually it comes in the form of either regressive tax policies like Salvini's ridiculous flat tax proposal, or to aid to very specific categories like small business owners or pensioners. Other than that they're as neoliberal as it gets.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Apparently the Chamber today confirmed its confidence to the Conte II government with 321 Yes, 259 No and 27 abstentions (coming all from Italia Viva).

Of course the biggest hurdle will be the Senate tomorrow. I still have no expectations.

In the meantime, the regional election in Calabria will be held on April 11th - hoping it does not get postponed again - while the date of the Chamber by-election in the Siena constituency is still unclear. Since the centre-left is notoriously masochist, there is some skirmish happening between the national PD, the local PD, IV, and what not over who should be the nominee in the by-election. Zero news about potential candidates in Calabria.

[Velasco]

I think you can explain this chart better than me

[palandio]

I think you can explain this chart better than me

There are 321 senators, hence for a (absolute) majority you need 161 of them.

Before the crisis the government had 166, of these 18 from Renzi's Italia Viva.

Subtracting them you get 148 votes, short of the 161 you need. Three senators from the mixed group that hadn't supported the majority before, up to three senators from FI/Udc and up to three life-long senators might join the majority for a total of 151-157 senators, still short of 161. For 161 you would need another 4-10 senators to join the majority.

If the Italia Viva's senators choose to abstain, there would be at most 303 votes, if furthermore all life-long senators abstain, then there would be at most 297. Which would reduce the number of votes needed for a majority to 149 or 152 respectively, enabling Conte to reach a majority.

(I think that the makers of the chart fumbled a bit with the life-long senators in the third diagram. All of them just vanish from the Senate, but at the same time up to three of them are in the new majority. It doesn't make sense.)

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I have been listening to some Senators' speeches. Matteo Renzi said some good things mixed together with tiresome globe-emoji ideologism, as usual. Alberto Bagnai (Lega's leading economist) was sharp and cunning, as usual, but when he complained that in 2019 too little money was spent on public investments I couldn't help laughing.

Also I think I might love Andrea Cioffi (M5S) now:
- grated turbo-neoliberalism (and implicitly Renzi)
- made a reference to Bernie Sanders
- made a reference to the Gospel of Mark
- talked about putting people first, recognizing their love and their pain, and promoting brotherhood
- made a very poetic description of the glucose cycle as the material motor of life

[Mike88]

It seems that Conte is on track to win the Senate vote, is that right?

[Alcibiades]

Where do Conte’s sympathies now lie ideologically? Obviously he was originally chosen by the ‘populist coalition’ to lead their government, but to survive the confidence vote he was making appeals to liberals and social democrats. Is he still most closely linked with M5S out of all the parties in his government? Also, does he have any long-term political ambitions or desire to get involved in party politics, and does he intend to try and remain PM or otherwise continue to be active in politics after the next election, or if this government collapses?

[brucejoel99]

It seems that Conte is on track to win the Senate vote, is that right?

Yes, looks like he's on track to win a plurality in the Senate rather than an absolute majority, though he'll come close to one thanks to some of the life-long senators & a few floor-crossers from Italia Viva & Forza Italia. In any event, governments have been permitted in the past to command only a plurality in the Senate, so Mattarella will (obviously) allow Conte to continue at the helm.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Where do Conte’s sympathies now lie ideologically? Obviously he was originally chosen by the ‘populist coalition’ to lead their government, but to survive the confidence vote he was making appeals to liberals and social democrats. Is he still most closely linked with M5S out of all the parties in his government? Also, does he have any long-term political ambitions or desire to get involved in party politics, and does he intend to try and remain PM or otherwise continue to be active in politics after the next election, or if this government collapses?

1. No one knows
2. For the moment, the answer has to be yes
3. It looks more and more like he has long-term ambitions, but the contours are still very unclear

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

And Matteo Salvini unsurprisingly greatly exceeded the time limit for his speech, provoking vociferous protests.

His speech has actually been a pretty good rundown of #populist conservative fusionism on every issue.

[Diouf]

Sounds like Conte reiterated in his speech today that the government wants a proportional electoral law, so hopefully there can soon be a good agreement on this crucial subject. Renzi and Italia Viva has done their to block it, mainly due to the proposed 5% threshold, but hopefully his role is less important now.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Conte got 156 votes. 5 short of a majority, but enough, it seems, to live on to fight another day. Hopefully there's still the chance that a few more will join the ranks.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

The Senate today confirmed its confidence to the Conte II government with 156 Yes, 140 No and 16 abstentions (coming from Italia Viva).

I am not exactly *happy* - not the right word - however:
- Renzi: owned
- Salvini: owned

[Andrea]

It went on for an extra half an hour because Ciampolillo (ex 5 Stars) and Nencini (Socialist, grouped with Italia Viva) declared to vote at the end of the second rolling call.
Speaker Casellati had to check the videorecording to understand if they asked to vote before or after she closed the voting period.

Both were admitted to vote in the end and voted "yes".

Earlier in the evening, 2 Forza Italia senators (Maria Rosaria Rossi and Andrea Causin) defected to the yes camp.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Based Nencini. Hopefully he takes back his symbol so that Renzi's band of traitors is left without a parliamentary group. That would serve him well.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Based Nencini. Hopefully he takes back his symbol so that Renzi's band of traitors is left without a parliamentary group. That would serve him well.

I mean, Nencini's use of the red carnation symbol and the Socialist name is kind of hilarious itself since he strikes me as to the right of PD (or at least, he tends to ally/form electoral lists with such subjects).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Based Nencini. Hopefully he takes back his symbol so that Renzi's band of traitors is left without a parliamentary group. That would serve him well.

I mean, Nencini's use of the red carnation symbol and the Socialist name is kind of hilarious itself since he strikes me as to the right of PD (or at least, he tends to ally/form electoral lists with such subjects).

Considering that most of Craxi's people became the leading cadre of Forza Italia, the rump PSI being to the right of PD is far from surprising.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Based Nencini. Hopefully he takes back his symbol so that Renzi's band of traitors is left without a parliamentary group. That would serve him well.

I mean, Nencini's use of the red carnation symbol and the Socialist name is kind of hilarious itself since he strikes me as to the right of PD (or at least, he tends to ally/form electoral lists with such subjects).

Considering that most of Craxi's people became the leading cadre of Forza Italia, the rump PSI being to the right of PD is far from surprising.

I know, and I always find that puzzling. It only makes sense if you think that by the early 90's the PSI did not have a purpose anymore except pwning the PCI and promoting Craxi's personal preferences... which is probably pretty close to the mark, lol.

[and being a graft machine, of course, but that was hardly distinctive in 1992 Italy]

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Apparently Andrea Cioffi has become viral on social media after his speech last Tuesday. And understandably so!

So I want to share his "glucose" speech with you, because it's just beautiful. Translated by yours truly.

To know when a system is circular, it suffices to think about the glucose cycle.
The sun, motor of life, when the green of spring explodes and covers earth with frisson, power, vital energy.
When you look at a leaf against the light and see its structure, its internal veins, and you know that those tunnels connect air and earth, leaves that make it so that air is enriched with what at the beginning of history was a poison: oxygen.
There, on the leaf's surface, a microcosm of affections and magic is recreated. A world dominated by the union, interaction, and transformation of simple elements, from hydrogen to oxygen, from nitrogen to potassium.
A series of elements spinning, dancing around their mentor: carbon. And there, on the leaf's surface, love is born, when carbon dioxide enters the green and dancing beneath the sunshine, inebriated from its heat, it breaks apart, leaving oxygen free to fly and carbon free to rejoin with the other guests at the feast to define a marvellous chain, glucose, sweet nectar flowing up to the fruit.
And from there it enters a child's mouth, it flows into their blood and feeds the part that most needs it, the part where thought is conceived, where questions and answers are conceived, that nerve cell which produces love and pain, thought and memory.
And it is in that cell that carbon parts from its old dance partners and through the blood vessels arrives to the lungs, where it rejoins with its two old oxygen friends, and combining back with them is free again to fly in the air, and a new ride starts, entering again a gull's wings, a cricket's legs, a worm's blood, a lion's claws.
Life. Life.
Now, President of the Council of Ministers, it's for that life, for that love perpetuating between carbon and oxygen that all good-willed people are asking that you carry on. Love requires courage, and as an Athenian historian, a father of the polis, said, certainly the bravest are those who have the clearest vision of what awaits them, of the glory as much as of the danger - and in spite of that confront it and don't flee, I would add. So carry on with head held high President, the Five Star Movement is with you.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Where do Conte’s sympathies now lie ideologically? Obviously he was originally chosen by the ‘populist coalition’ to lead their government, but to survive the confidence vote he was making appeals to liberals and social democrats. Is he still most closely linked with M5S out of all the parties in his government? Also, does he have any long-term political ambitions or desire to get involved in party politics, and does he intend to try and remain PM or otherwise continue to be active in politics after the next election, or if this government collapses?

1. No one knows
2. For the moment, the answer has to be yes
3. It looks more and more like he has long-term ambitions, but the contours are still very unclear

Only in Italy would it be an open question whether the incumbent Prime Minister has "long-term ambitions" in politics or not!

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Where do Conte’s sympathies now lie ideologically? Obviously he was originally chosen by the ‘populist coalition’ to lead their government, but to survive the confidence vote he was making appeals to liberals and social democrats. Is he still most closely linked with M5S out of all the parties in his government? Also, does he have any long-term political ambitions or desire to get involved in party politics, and does he intend to try and remain PM or otherwise continue to be active in politics after the next election, or if this government collapses?

1. No one knows
2. For the moment, the answer has to be yes
3. It looks more and more like he has long-term ambitions, but the contours are still very unclear

Only in Italy would it be an open question whether the incumbent Prime Minister has "long-term ambitions" in politics or not!

This is because only in Italy would the Incumbent Prime Minister be someone who before the start of the legislature was a totally random civil servant literally no one in the public had ever heard about.


Also, to bring up an issue I know you care about, you might be pleased (lol) to know that Salvini made some brief pro-life grandstanding Tuesday, saying "We're for defence of life always. My model are crisis pregnancy centres, not abortive pills given for free [?] on the street to anyone [??]", which is about as substantive as a Republican screaming Deficit Bad, but I noted because I can't even remember the last time I had heard about the topic in Italian politics.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Where do Conte’s sympathies now lie ideologically? Obviously he was originally chosen by the ‘populist coalition’ to lead their government, but to survive the confidence vote he was making appeals to liberals and social democrats. Is he still most closely linked with M5S out of all the parties in his government? Also, does he have any long-term political ambitions or desire to get involved in party politics, and does he intend to try and remain PM or otherwise continue to be active in politics after the next election, or if this government collapses?

1. No one knows
2. For the moment, the answer has to be yes
3. It looks more and more like he has long-term ambitions, but the contours are still very unclear

Only in Italy would it be an open question whether the incumbent Prime Minister has "long-term ambitions" in politics or not!

This is because only in Italy would the Incumbent Prime Minister be someone who before the start of the legislature was a totally random civil servant literally no one in the public had ever heard about.


Also, to bring up an issue I know you care about, you might be pleased (lol) to know that Salvini made some brief pro-life grandstanding Tuesday, saying "We're for defence of life always. My model are crisis pregnancy centres, not abortive pills given for free [?] on the street to anyone [??]", which is about as substantive as a Republican screaming Deficit Bad, but I noted because I can't even remember the last time I had heard about the topic in Italian politics.

The Lega folks in Veneto made the news a few years ago for hosting some kind of pro-life event, but I didn't think Salvini was explicitly on board with it. I guess he's decided he really wants to Americanize Italian political debate in every respect...

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Where do Conte’s sympathies now lie ideologically? Obviously he was originally chosen by the ‘populist coalition’ to lead their government, but to survive the confidence vote he was making appeals to liberals and social democrats. Is he still most closely linked with M5S out of all the parties in his government? Also, does he have any long-term political ambitions or desire to get involved in party politics, and does he intend to try and remain PM or otherwise continue to be active in politics after the next election, or if this government collapses?

1. No one knows
2. For the moment, the answer has to be yes
3. It looks more and more like he has long-term ambitions, but the contours are still very unclear

Only in Italy would it be an open question whether the incumbent Prime Minister has "long-term ambitions" in politics or not!

This is because only in Italy would the Incumbent Prime Minister be someone who before the start of the legislature was a totally random civil servant literally no one in the public had ever heard about.


Also, to bring up an issue I know you care about, you might be pleased (lol) to know that Salvini made some brief pro-life grandstanding Tuesday, saying "We're for defence of life always. My model are crisis pregnancy centres, not abortive pills given for free [?] on the street to anyone [??]", which is about as substantive as a Republican screaming Deficit Bad, but I noted because I can't even remember the last time I had heard about the topic in Italian politics.

The Lega folks in Veneto made the news a few years ago for hosting some kind of pro-life event, but I didn't think Salvini was explicitly on board with it. I guess he's decided he really wants to Americanize Italian political debate in every respect...

I am not sure you are referring to this, but the only thing that comes to my mind is when the 2019 edition of the World Congress of Families was hosted in Verona. It made some news but basically everyone forgot about it soon afterwards. Salvini's speech last Tuesday felt very 'Americanized' in its entirety, but in all likelihood that part was mostly an aside and irrelevant to the Debate [to the dismay of Tommaso Scandroglio and other r a d t r a d s].

[Antonio the Sixth]

Where do Conte’s sympathies now lie ideologically? Obviously he was originally chosen by the ‘populist coalition’ to lead their government, but to survive the confidence vote he was making appeals to liberals and social democrats. Is he still most closely linked with M5S out of all the parties in his government? Also, does he have any long-term political ambitions or desire to get involved in party politics, and does he intend to try and remain PM or otherwise continue to be active in politics after the next election, or if this government collapses?

1. No one knows
2. For the moment, the answer has to be yes
3. It looks more and more like he has long-term ambitions, but the contours are still very unclear

Only in Italy would it be an open question whether the incumbent Prime Minister has "long-term ambitions" in politics or not!

This is because only in Italy would the Incumbent Prime Minister be someone who before the start of the legislature was a totally random civil servant literally no one in the public had ever heard about.


Also, to bring up an issue I know you care about, you might be pleased (lol) to know that Salvini made some brief pro-life grandstanding Tuesday, saying "We're for defence of life always. My model are crisis pregnancy centres, not abortive pills given for free [?] on the street to anyone [??]", which is about as substantive as a Republican screaming Deficit Bad, but I noted because I can't even remember the last time I had heard about the topic in Italian politics.

The Lega folks in Veneto made the news a few years ago for hosting some kind of pro-life event, but I didn't think Salvini was explicitly on board with it. I guess he's decided he really wants to Americanize Italian political debate in every respect...

I am not sure you are referring to this, but the only thing that comes to my mind is when the 2019 edition of the World Congress of Families was hosted in Verona. It made some news but basically everyone forgot about it soon afterwards. Salvini's speech last Tuesday felt very 'Americanized' in its entirety, but in all likelihood that part was mostly an aside and irrelevant to the Debate [to the dismay of Tommaso Scandroglio and other r a d t r a d s].

I think that's what I was referring to, yeah. It's been a long time and I've mostly blacked it out.

Anyway, if Salvini or Meloni are serious about undermining legal abortion once they (inevitably) get their shot at power, I can only hope Italian women will make them pay a high price for it. This isn't America and it isn't even Poland. We have a broad consensus around safe, legal, subsidized and tightly-regulated abortion. It's not my ideal if I would design it from scratch, but right now upsetting it in any direction would just blow up in everyone's faces.