Alberta Election 2019

[mileslunn]

In Calgary-Varsity, Calgary-Currie, Banff-Kananaskis, and Edmonton Southwest, NDP candidates have all conceded defeat so obviously based on outstanding votes they probably don't believe there is a realistic chance of catching up.  So at this point Calgary-Falconbridge, Edmonton West-Henday, and Lethbridge West still outstanding.  Edmonton West-Henday swung towards NDP in absentee ballots so far so trend looks good for them.  Lethbridge West did swing in UCP's favour, but I've heard only 300 ballots left to count and 200 vote gap so seems unlikely they will close it.  Anybody know what the recount threshold is?

[mileslunn]

Final results are in and no changes in seats, 63 seats for UCP, 24 seats for NDP.  It does seem the final ballots did help NDP a bit but overall results only changed slightly.

UCP 54.8%
NDP 32.7%

The NDP though did get more votes total then they did in 2015 and had the third best showing in total votes in Alberta history only behind off course UCP, and Alberta PCs in 2001.

Of the mobile polls counted today the results were as follows.

UCP 46.2%
NDP 38.8%

So actually polls were pretty close to this one, but way off on the others.

[Hatman 🍁]

[Hatman 🍁]

[mileslunn]

I would be interested in seeing a map of how UCP did compared to the combined PC + WRP vote in 2015.  Overall they exceeded the combined vote slightly.  It looks like in Rural Alberta especially the northern parts they exceeded it greatly and also did in Edmonton while Calgary got about the same so interesting to see what it visually looks like.

[136or142]

The strongest area for the Alberta Party was the suburbs around Edmonton.  From the election results prior to the final outstanding ballots, the Alberta Party received more than 10% of the vote in 28 of the 87 ridings.
Over 10% of vote
Calgary: 7/26
Calgary suburbs 0/4 (both Airdrie ridings, Highwood (Okotoks) Chestermere-Strathmore)
Edmonton: 10/20
Other Cities: 3/8 (8 ridings: 2 Lethbridge, 2 Red Deer, 2 Fort McMurray, Grande Prairie and Medicine Hat-Cypress, the Fort McMurray and Medicine Hat ridings might be majority rural)
Rural: 3/22
Edmonton suburbs: 5/7

If the Alberta Party doesn't go back to Greg Clark as leader, I would suggest Neil Korotash who ran in Morinville-St Albert and received about 14.5% of the vote.

[136or142]

For the NDP, if Rachel Notley does decide to step down as leader, I would think the front-running candidates would likely be

From Edmonton: David Eggen or Deron Bilous
From Calgary: Kathleen Ganley or Irfan Sabir

I would also expect Rod Loyola to run with the endorsement of the 'socialist caucus.'

I think Shannon Phillips is probably too isolated as the only member of the caucus not from the Edmonton or Calgary regions, and she also won re-election by a very narrow margin.

[mileslunn]

For the NDP, if Rachel Notley does decide to step down as leader, I would think the front-running candidates would likely be

From Edmonton: David Eggen or Deron Bilous
From Calgary: Kathleen Ganley or Irfan Sabir

I would also expect Rod Loyola to run with the endorsement of the 'socialist caucus.'

I think Shannon Phillips is probably too isolated as the only member of the caucus not from the Edmonton or Calgary regions, and she also won re-election by a very narrow margin.

What about Joe Ceci?  He was finance minister so pretty high profile.  Sarah Hoffman is another but she unlike Notley came across more as the pitbull so good person to play a lead role in attacks in opposition but not sure if best to lead.

As for Notley running in 2023, I am of two minds.  She suffered a pretty bad defeat and in almost any other province would mean resigning.  It's very rare for a defeated leader to come back and win.  On the other hand the two elections she was leader were NDP's two best showings so real risk the party falls back to its normal single digits with someone else so probably best to stay on for now as the next election is not for another four years so lots of time to see how things unfold and go from there.

[adma]

As for Notley running in 2023, I am of two minds.  She suffered a pretty bad defeat and in almost any other province would mean resigning.  It's very rare for a defeated leader to come back and win.  On the other hand the two elections she was leader were NDP's two best showings so real risk the party falls back to its normal single digits with someone else so probably best to stay on for now as the next election is not for another four years so lots of time to see how things unfold and go from there.

In Saskatchewan, Allan Blakeney ran again in 1986 after being reduced to 9 seats in 1982--and actually won the popular vote, though losing in seat count...

[Hatman 🍁]

it's not like anyone else is going to do any better than Notley. She should stay for as long as she wants.

[Smid]

Some (most?) of you may have seen these already, but I thought I'd best upload them here as well. These are some poll by poll maps taken from the 2019 Alberta Provincial election results.  

Vote share of winners in each poll, based on the preliminary (end of election night) count. Given that the out-of-riding ballots aren't linked to specific polls, they shouldn't affect these, although any recounts might.

As always, bigger versions in the Gallery (and even bigger versions are available).

Calgary:


Edmonton:


Lethbridge:


Medicine Hat:


High River and Okotoks:


Red Deer:


Grande Prairie:


Fort McMurray:



I'm also working on Election Day Turnout maps (bearing in mind that Advance Poll voters won't show up on that map, except by their absence). There are some weird instances, however, so I don't think I should upload them without closer inspection.

Firstly, some polls have greater than 100% election day turnout (highest is St Albert poll 75, where the 51 voters cast 114 ballots, if I remember correctly - and those are numbers on the Elections Alberta website), there were a handful of others, too, with above 100% turnout. Some of these might be in growth areas, and perhaps the enrollment figures were recorded at the time of the redistribution or something... that could explain it.

Secondly, I think the Fort Mac seats often have very low turnout, whereas it was suggesting quite high turnout. Perhaps that's not wrong, but I want to check more closely first.

I also want to review my handling of split and combined polls, to check I'm not double-counting anything.


Edit: Here is a teaser, but bear in mind that I haven't QA'd these yet, so errors are possible.

Calgary:



Edmonton:



I'll probably also work on some vote by party versions, too, similar to Earl's Alberta Party map above, although I don't think I'll be able to achieve a swing map because that would require me to match pre- and post-redistribution polls to one another.

[Hatman 🍁]

Polls with more than 100% turnout are usually explained by people registering to vote on election day.

Anyway, looking at the Calgary map, one could easily gerrymander the city for 1-2 more NDP ridings, with a nicer looking map.

[Smid]

Polls with more than 100% turnout are usually explained by people registering to vote on election day.

Anyway, looking at the Calgary map, one could easily gerrymander the city for 1-2 more NDP ridings, with a nicer looking map.

Yeah, St Albert poll 75 is up in one corner - Google Maps satellite view had a cluster of small houses or condos - looked like maybe a retirement village or something, just very small houses, and the rest of the poll was mostly streets and fairly recently cleared dirt, so presumably a new housing estate. A similar thing could also be said of the poll the NDP won in High River, as I was discussing with Miles yesterday, so yeah, I was figuring that the high turnout polls are mostly going to be in growth areas where people move in and register on the day (similar things happen here, despite compulsory voting, etc - lowest turnout is in high "churn" electorates near the inner city, where people may have not updated their enrollment after they move out, while highest turnout is in outer suburban areas with high development, because of the large number of people moving in but few people moving out.

Just looking at Calgary-Varsity, it looks like voters in the most conservative part of the riding were most likely to turn out on Election Day, but whether that's because they had higher turnout, or whether it was because the other parts were more likely to vote in Advance polls, I couldn't say.

It would be possible to deliver more Calgary ridings to the NDP by changing the boundaries, but remember that Calgary-Falconridge was quite close, changing those boundaries would make the NDP vote less efficient if the party were to do slightly better in another election (would be accused of packing). Moving the (predominantly NDP) polls North of the Bow River from Calgary-Bow to Calgary-Varsity would probably make sense, though, and may have allowed the NDP to win Varsity (especially if the safe Conservative polls in the NW corner were to drop out to accommodate the new polls from Bow).

[Hatman 🍁]

I would move McCall and Falconridge  up, as I think it makes more sense to have the Skyview ranch area in McCall.

And yeah, it doesn't make sense that the Montgomery neighbourhood is in Bow and not Varsity.

[Smid]

I would move McCall and Falconridge  up, as I think it makes more sense to have the Skyview ranch area in McCall.

And yeah, it doesn't make sense that the Montgomery neighbourhood is in Bow and not Varsity.

I'm inclined to agree with you about McCall and Falconridge - I think those changes make sense, however in a good year for the NDP, the current version might give three Calgary ridings (McCall, Falconridge, and perhaps North East, although perhaps the margin in North East is too large for that to make a difference), while in a bad year for the NDP, it only yields one NDP riding (McCall). Given the closeness of Falconridge currently, it probably typically would give two ridings. Moving McCall and Falconridge North probably gives two solid NDP ridings, regardless of how well the NDP performs, reducing NDP vote efficiency in a good year. Some on the left might accuse such riding boundaries of packing. All that said, I think that those changes make sense.

That whole North-Eastern area was split across McCall and Falconridge prior to the redistribution, so I've remapped the poll results with the old boundaries overlaid as the riding boundary layer.



And to complete the set of poll results with different boundaries overlaid, here are Calgary and Edmonton with the current federal riding boundaries.

Calgary:



Edmonton:


and federally:



By the way, I realised that there was a slight error in the maps I posted last night - mapping the polygons didn't map the holes within the polygon, so it over-plotted polls 10 and 11 in Banff-Kananaskis. I've edited the post above to correct the map accordingly. My humble and sincere apologies for this error - I've been mapping in R for a while, but only very basic stuff, I'm just starting to learn a few of the slightly more complex functions and techniques (I learnt a few functions I haven't used before creating these maps over the past couple of days).

[adma]

And yeah, it doesn't make sense that the Montgomery neighbourhood is in Bow and not Varsity.

Maybe mild "historical continuity" sense in that Montgomery and Bowness were something like twin Calgary satellites prior to being annexed by Calgary in 1963-4...

[mileslunn]

How about a map of Banff, Lake Louise, Canmore, and Jasper.  Those are fairly touristy towns so wouldn't be surprised if they went NDP even though UCP won the ridings.  Sort of akin of Blaine County in Idaho and Teton County in Wyoming and sometimes Summit County in Utah.  All very red states and surrounding areas deeply Republican but those usually vote Democrat for that reason.

[Smid]

How about a map of Banff, Lake Louise, Canmore, and Jasper.  Those are fairly touristy towns so wouldn't be surprised if they went NDP even though UCP won the ridings.  Sort of akin of Blaine County in Idaho and Teton County in Wyoming and sometimes Summit County in Utah.  All very red states and surrounding areas deeply Republican but those usually vote Democrat for that reason.

Those towns tend to be quite non-Conservative (see various federal and provincial elections on election-atlas.ca). I have some family stuff planned, but can do them in a bit.

[adma]

How about a map of Banff, Lake Louise, Canmore, and Jasper.  Those are fairly touristy towns so wouldn't be surprised if they went NDP even though UCP won the ridings.  Sort of akin of Blaine County in Idaho and Teton County in Wyoming and sometimes Summit County in Utah.  All very red states and surrounding areas deeply Republican but those usually vote Democrat for that reason.

Excellent comparison points.

[Smid]

How about a map of Banff, Lake Louise, Canmore, and Jasper.  Those are fairly touristy towns so wouldn't be surprised if they went NDP even though UCP won the ridings.  Sort of akin of Blaine County in Idaho and Teton County in Wyoming and sometimes Summit County in Utah.  All very red states and surrounding areas deeply Republican but those usually vote Democrat for that reason.

Excellent comparison points.

Here is Banff, Canmore, Cochrane, plus the nearby reservations, but also the rural parts of the riding bordering on Calgary:



Jasper will take me a little longer yet - there are a few towns but large spaces between them. I might need to do a few insets instead, because they aren't especially clear. I'll play around with it and try to get something for you in the next 24 hours or so.

[beesley]

I would move McCall and Falconridge  up, as I think it makes more sense to have the Skyview ranch area in McCall.

And yeah, it doesn't make sense that the Montgomery neighbourhood is in Bow and not Varsity.

I'm inclined to agree with you about McCall and Falconridge - I think those changes make sense, however in a good year for the NDP, the current version might give three Calgary ridings (McCall, Falconridge, and perhaps North East, although perhaps the margin in North East is too large for that to make a difference), while in a bad year for the NDP, it only yields one NDP riding (McCall). Given the closeness of Falconridge currently, it probably typically would give two ridings. Moving McCall and Falconridge North probably gives two solid NDP ridings, regardless of how well the NDP performs, reducing NDP vote efficiency in a good year. Some on the left might accuse such riding boundaries of packing. All that said, I think that those changes make sense.

That whole North-Eastern area was split across McCall and Falconridge prior to the redistribution, so I've remapped the poll results with the old boundaries overlaid as the riding boundary layer.



And to complete the set of poll results with different boundaries overlaid, here are Calgary and Edmonton with the current federal riding boundaries.

Calgary:



Edmonton:



By the way, I realised that there was a slight error in the maps I posted last night - mapping the polygons didn't map the holes within the polygon, so it over-plotted polls 10 and 11 in Banff-Kananaskis. I've edited the post above to correct the map accordingly. My humble and sincere apologies for this error - I've been mapping in R for a while, but only very basic stuff, I'm just starting to learn a few of the slightly more complex functions and techniques (I learnt a few functions I haven't used before creating these maps over the past couple of days).

Great work, was interested to see this!

Banff looked odd but then I suppose out of the 'rural' federal ridings, only Fort McMurray-Cold Lake and Lethbridge were worse for the CPC - and it showed in the latter this time round, with Fort McMurray having it's own resource-driven outcome. If I'm not mistaken the UCP parts of Banff-Kananaskis are in other federal ridings.

[mileslunn]

No surprise here.  It looks like Cochrane went UCP but it is in Airdrie-Cochrane not Banff-Kananaskis.  It looks like there most of the towns went NDP as did Indian reserves and it was more the ranchland areas that UCP won and won big.  That might explain why on election night it looked close, but absentee heavily favoured UCP as perhaps many of the ranchers voted here who would have heavily voted UCP.  Other possibility is a lot of the developers in Banff voted in this and they probably unlike many of the service workers went UCP whereas most service workers in Banff probably went NDP.  Probably the fact those towns have a lot of millennials helped the NDP, but also many in the service industry.  My guess is many of those got a raise in wages as they would have benefited most from higher minimum wage so probably favour the party who raised it, not the party who opposed the raises although UCP won't rollback minimum wage but have said open to doing so for tipping businesses (Not working in this industry, I would be interested if higher minimum wage meant people tipped less).

[beesley]

If anyone's interested I'm calculating a scenario with three member districts.

Greg Clark still loses.

[Njall]

And yeah, it doesn't make sense that the Montgomery neighbourhood is in Bow and not Varsity.

Maybe mild "historical continuity" sense in that Montgomery and Bowness were something like twin Calgary satellites prior to being annexed by Calgary in 1963-4...

The boundary looks weird because it crosses the river, but Bowness and Montgomery are actually very similar communities due to their similar patterns of development as satellite communities, and their demographics (and voting behaviours). They also share a main street (Bowness Road) which seamlessly connects them and actually makes them appear to be parts of the same community when you drive through them.

No surprise here.  It looks like Cochrane went UCP but it is in Airdrie-Cochrane not Banff-Kananaskis.  It looks like there most of the towns went NDP as did Indian reserves and it was more the ranchland areas that UCP won and won big.  That might explain why on election night it looked close, but absentee heavily favoured UCP as perhaps many of the ranchers voted here who would have heavily voted UCP.  Other possibility is a lot of the developers in Banff voted in this and they probably unlike many of the service workers went UCP whereas most service workers in Banff probably went NDP.  Probably the fact those towns have a lot of millennials helped the NDP, but also many in the service industry.  My guess is many of those got a raise in wages as they would have benefited most from higher minimum wage so probably favour the party who raised it, not the party who opposed the raises although UCP won't rollback minimum wage but have said open to doing so for tipping businesses (Not working in this industry, I would be interested if higher minimum wage meant people tipped less).

The area between the Stoney Nation and Calgary isn’t ranchland (mostly), it’s actually primarily populated by very wealthy families living on acreages who commute into Calgary for work and/or school. If you know (or look up) the communities of Springbank and Elbow Valley, you’ll know/see what I mean. I would actually guess that, combined with the community of Priddis (south of the Tsuu T’ina Nation), over 10,000 very wealthy folks live in that area. Adding those wealthy communities after Cochrane was redistricted out was how the riding was able to continue to exist, and under the distribution of 2015 votes to new boundaries, it actually made the riding more conservative. My explanation for why the out of ED advance votes were so heavily UCP was that the many of the wealthy folks (and their kids; student vote results incicate kids there vote almost as conservative as their parents) voted in advance polls at or near their work or school locations in Calgary.

[Hatman 🍁]

And yeah, it doesn't make sense that the Montgomery neighbourhood is in Bow and not Varsity.

Maybe mild "historical continuity" sense in that Montgomery and Bowness were something like twin Calgary satellites prior to being annexed by Calgary in 1963-4...

The boundary looks weird because it crosses the river, but Bowness and Montgomery are actually very similar communities due to their similar patterns of development as satellite communities, and their demographics (and voting behaviours). They also share a main street (Bowness Road) which seamlessly connects them and actually makes them appear to be parts of the same community when you drive through them.

Sure, but rivers make natural riding boundaries, and natural riding boundaries within cities should be used as much as possible over dividing up neighbourhood clusters.