Alberta Election 2019

[mileslunn]

Since the Alberta election must be held no later than May 31, 2019, I am now opening the topic.  At this point the UCP looks heavily favoured, but as we are seeing with the Ontario election, I think it would be a bit premature to call it.  My thoughts on the four parties with seats are as follows obviously subject to change.

UCP: Definitely the heavy favourites.  Should probably sweep most of the ridings outside of the two main cities with perhaps the exception of the two Lethbridge ridings and maybe a few in the Capital region.  Well ahead in Calgary and if they can hold that, should form the next government.  Edmonton competitive, but I tend to think its really more a question if they can win any seats there or do they get shut out again.  I think the big dangers is Alberta is not nearly as right wing as it was 20 years ago so things like bringing back the Flat Tax, more funding for private schools could scare away some moderate voters who are unhappy with the NDP but feel the UCP is going too far.  Nonetheless Harper got 59.5% in 2015 and while I doubt the UCP will get quite that high, I suspect at least 80% of those who voted Tory federally in 2015 will also vote UCP and that puts them at 48% so still enough to win albeit probably not a landslide.

NDP: Despite what some say, I don't think the NDP is totally out of it.  In terms of the popular vote, I am almost positive they will lose that, but due to voter efficiency I think there is a very narrow path to a majority.  UCP will likely run up the margins in rural ridings without any small city topping 70 even 80% in some whereas unlike 2015 I don't think the NDP will have any blowouts not even in Edmonton.  Their path to power is basically to unite progressives + Red Tories which would mean sweeping Edmonton, capital region, being competitive in Calgary, and winning many smaller cities like Lethbridge, Red Deer etc.  The pipeline also should help too a bit.  So while I think the NDP is likely headed for opposition, I think it is highly likely they will get over 20 seats and even 30 seats I think is very realistic.  Otherwise I don't believe they are in as bad a shape as some claim they are.

Alberta Party: They won't win many if any seats at all, but if things tighten up could play kingmaker.  If they mostly take away soft NDP votes, then probably a UCP landslide, but if they pull away many Red Tories from the former Progressive Conservatives they could create an opening for the NDP to win.  Otherwise if they get 15% and that 15% is mostly Red Tories, the UCP will only get in the 40s and if the NDP can unite the 35-40% of Albertans on the political left this could allow the NDP to narrowly slip in.  If they take evenly from both won't matter then.

Liberals: Along with the Alberta Party, they are battling for the centrist vote, but I think the Alberta Party is in better shape to win it so in all likelihood the Liberals will become like what they are in neighbouring Saskatchewan, i.e. irrelevant.

[136or142]

Two Calgary NDP cabinet ministers (and first term MLAs) have both announced they aren't running again:  Brandy Payne a while back and Stephanie McLean a few days ago.  They both essentially said they wanted to spend more time with their families.  (Stephanie McLean also said she wanted to return to her legal practice.)  

Normally that is the standard line and is generally nonsense, but both are likely telling the truth here as they both gave birth while in office. (Stephanie McLean was the first woman in Alberta to give birth while an MLA and Brandy Payne was the second or third.)  The other, current Attorney General Kathleen Ganley seems to be running again.

[King of Kensington]

Re: the Alberta Party - how much space is there really in the "reasonable center" between Rachel Notley and Jason Kenney?  I presume it'll come more from the "PC" side - but I suspect it'll be a pretty small group. 

Unlike in BC (or perhaps in the future Ontario) the NDP may have a decent chance even if the right is united, it's really hard to see the Alberta NDP win against a (more or less) united right.

[mileslunn]

Re: the Alberta Party - how much space is there really in the "reasonable center" between Rachel Notley and Jason Kenney?  I presume it'll come more from the "PC" side - but I suspect it'll be a pretty small group. 

Unlike in BC (or perhaps in the future Ontario) the NDP may have a decent chance even if the right is united, it's really hard to see the Alberta NDP win against a (more or less) united right.

Agreed it is pretty tough to win against a united right in Alberta, I am more just leaving all options open as we've seen enough surprises.  As for BC, definitely the NDP can win against a united right, but far from certain.  Ontario will be interesting since if the PCs stay clearly on the right like they are under Ford, were under Harris, and Hudak, I think they will probably lose more often than win.  But if they move back to their traditional Red Tory spot, then I think they will win most of the time.  BC Liberals maybe on the right and similar in many ways to the Ontario PCs, but the BC Liberals are a much bigger tent and don't tend to be quite as ideological.  Ontario PCs right now are more like the UCP than BC Liberals and if you have a divided left you can get away with that, but not a united left, whereas Alberta is more conservative than Ontario so people who are unelectable elsewhere can win there.

That is the big reason Kenney choose to run provincially rather than federally as he probably figured he couldn't beat Trudeau, whereas he could win in his home province.

[Njall]

Two Calgary NDP cabinet ministers (and first term MLAs) have both announced they aren't running again:  Brandy Payne a while back and Stephanie McLean a few days ago.  They both essentially said they wanted to spend more time with their families.  (Stephanie McLean also said she wanted to return to her legal practice.)  

Normally that is the standard line and is generally nonsense, but both are likely telling the truth here as they both gave birth while in office. (Stephanie McLean was the first woman in Alberta to give birth while an MLA and Brandy Payne was the second or third.)  The other, current Attorney General Kathleen Ganley seems to be running again.

Ganley is indeed running again - she's been nominated as the NDP candidate for Calgary-Mountain View. She moved to Mountain View in order to allow Finance Minister Joe Ceci to run in Calgary-Buffalo, as his old seat of Calgary-Fort was split up, with his stronger neighbourhoods being added to Buffalo and his other neighbourhoods being joined with PC-voting areas further south to form Calgary-Peigan.

Re: the Alberta Party - how much space is there really in the "reasonable center" between Rachel Notley and Jason Kenney?  I presume it'll come more from the "PC" side - but I suspect it'll be a pretty small group. 

Unlike in BC (or perhaps in the future Ontario) the NDP may have a decent chance even if the right is united, it's really hard to see the Alberta NDP win against a (more or less) united right.

The Alberta Party's currently polling at around 10%, and they've become the go-to third option over the Liberals since their caucus was enlarged to 3 MLAs through floor-crossings (not to mention that the Liberals elected a lacklustre new Leader and their only MLA is retiring). I could see the Alberta Party picking up a couple more seats if they target effectively and concentrate their resources, but I would be surprised if their post-election caucus was larger than 6-ish MLAs. With that said, Notley's pragmatic governing style doesn't leave a ton of room, and the NDP is still the default option for those who want to stop the UCP. It's always worth noting that the NDP were polling around where the Alberta Party is now at this point before the 2015 election, but in all likelihood, the Alberta Party's support would would be most likely to swell in a post-2019 world where the UCP brings in an unpopular, solidly right-wing governing agenda and the NDP elects a more ideological leader to replace Notley.

[Njall]

We've got an interesting UCP nomination election coming up here on Wednesday in Airdrie-East. Incumbent Airdrie MLA Angela Pitt, who was first elected as a Wildrose MLA in 2015, is seeking the nomination in this district. She had appeared unopposed for a while, but at the last minute, Roger Millions (the Sportsnet broadcaster for the Calgary Flames) decided to challenge her for the nomination. The optics won't be good for the UCP if Pitt loses, not only because she's a pretty competent MLA (and UCP Deputy House Leader), but also because she's only one of two female MLAs in the 25-person caucus. To that end, she's trotted out at least 14 endorsements from fellow MLAs in recent days, indicating serious concerns from the UCP brass that she may lose.

[Njall]

We've got an interesting UCP nomination election coming up here on Wednesday in Airdrie-East. Incumbent Airdrie MLA Angela Pitt, who was first elected as a Wildrose MLA in 2015, is seeking the nomination in this district. She had appeared unopposed for a while, but at the last minute, Roger Millions (the Sportsnet broadcaster for the Calgary Flames) decided to challenge her for the nomination. The optics won't be good for the UCP if Pitt loses, not only because she's a pretty competent MLA (and UCP Deputy House Leader), but also because she's only one of two female MLAs in the 25-person caucus. To that end, she's trotted out at least 14 endorsements from fellow MLAs in recent days, indicating serious concerns from the UCP brass that she may lose.

Well, that race turned out to be less interesting than I'd expected. Pitt was re-nominated after all.

On the topic of nominations, this summer is when we'll see a good number of the candidates from assorted parties win their respective nominations and begin officially campaigning. So far (including tonight's UCP contest), the UCP has nominated 11 candidates, while the NDP has nominated 7, the Alberta Party has nominated 5, and the Green Party has nominated 1. All of those nominations, except for the UCP in Airdrie-East, saw the successful candidates acclaimed.

United Conservative Party:

• Airdrie-East: Angela Pitt, incumbent MLA (elected WRP) for Airdrie
• Calgary-Edgemont: Prasad Panda, incumbent MLA (elected WRP) for Calgary-Foothills
• Calgary-Hays: Ric McIver, incumbent MLA (elected PC)
• Calgary-Lougheed: Jason Kenney, UCP Leader and incumbent MLA
• Calgary-West: Mike Ellis, incumbent MLA (elected PC)
• Edmonton-Gold Bar: David Dorward, former PC MLA
• Cypress-Medicine Hat: Drew Barnes, incumbent MLA (elected WRP)
• Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills: Nathan Cooper, incumbent MLA (elected WRP)
• Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre: Jason Nixon, incumbent MLA (elected WRP)
• Strathcona-Sherwood Park: Nate Glubish, former UCP and WRP constituency association President
• Taber-Warner: Grant Hunter, incumbent MLA (elected WRP) for Cardston-Taber-Warner

New Democratic Party:

• Calgary-Buffalo: Joe Ceci, Finance Minister and incumbent MLA for Calgary-Fort
• Calgary-Currie: Brian Malkinson, Service Alberta Minister and incumbent MLA
• Calgary-McCall: Irfan Sabir, Community & Social Services Minister and incumbent MLA
• Calgary-Mountain View: Kathleen Ganley, Justice Minister and incumbent MLA for Calgary-Buffalo
• Edmonton-Mill Woods: Christina Gray, Labour Minister and incumbent MLA
• Lethbridge-East: Maria Fitzpatrick, incumbent MLA
• Lethbridge-West: Shannon Phillips, Environment Minister and incumbent MLA

Alberta Party:

• Calgary-Beddington: Karen McPherson, incumbent MLA (elected NDP) for Calgary-Mackay-Nose Hill
• Calgary-Buffalo: Omar Masood, engineer at Transcanada
• Calgary-Elbow: Greg Clark, incumbent MLA
• Edmonton-Glenora: Carla Stolte, teacher and former community league President
• Edmonton-McClung: Stephen Mandel, ABP Leader and former Mayor of Edmonton

Green Party:

• Calgary-Mountain View: Thana Boonlert, former federal & provincial Green candidate

[Republican Left]

Do you think it's possible that the Alberta Party could become a moderate or "Red Tory" version of the Wildrose Party? Or the United Conservative Party actually pretty united (with a few stragglers here or there)?

Pre-2015, did the Wildrose Party ever have a chance or attaining a government on their own?

[VPH]

The Alberta Party is putting up some solid candidates. Would be beneficial to the center if the ALP would just merge into them...

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Do you think it's possible that the Alberta Party could become a moderate or "Red Tory" version of the Wildrose Party? Or the United Conservative Party actually pretty united (with a few stragglers here or there)?

Pre-2015, did the Wildrose Party ever have a chance or attaining a government on their own?

Wildrose led in the polls on the eve of the 2012 election and was widely expected to form goverment.

[Njall]

Do you think it's possible that the Alberta Party could become a moderate or "Red Tory" version of the Wildrose Party? Or the United Conservative Party actually pretty united (with a few stragglers here or there)?

Pre-2015, did the Wildrose Party ever have a chance or attaining a government on their own?

Wildrose led in the polls on the eve of the 2012 election and was widely expected to form goverment.

Indeed, and they were also leading in most polls between the 2012 and 2015 elections, at least until the combined effect of Prentice's election as PC Leader and the WRP mass floor-crossing. So they definitely had a credible chance at points, especially being the go-to non-PC party from about 2009 to 2015. Some people who were not nearly as right-wing as the WRP voted for them in 2012 just to try and get the PCs out (a friend of mine who currently works for Catherine McKenna in Ottawa being an example). Unfortunately for them, they also had a habit of shooting themselves in the foot on the eve of their potential success.

To the question on the ABP, I'd first point out that there was a Red Tory party, namely the PC Party (except for under Klein's tenure). It's very likely that they'll end up filling that Red Tory-esque void in the current Alberta political spectrum. You can see this in some of the candidates and organizers that they are attracting: many are former moderate PCs, and they're also attracting federal and/or provincial Liberals supporters too.

[Njall]

The UCP nomination race in Chestermere-Strathmore is heating up, with accusations of party officials breaking rules to favour the incumbent MLA, and court actions shooting back and forth between MLA Aheer and one of her opponents. See here and here for details.

Also, in classic form for the UCP in Cardston-Siksika (context: heavily Mormon, rural, and one of the most socially conservative in Alberta), the nomination contest there saw over 3,000 voters turn out to choose between two firm social conservatives. The losing candidate, who still received 43% of the vote, is a former federal candidate for the Christian Heritage Party, and is Principal of a private Christian school which is one of the participants in a lawsuit against Alberta's Bill 24. The group fighting the lawsuit, amongst other things, alleges that Gay-Straight Alliances in schools are "ideological sex clubs" and that parents' constitutional rights are being violated if they can't be told when their child joins a GSA. (Context for that lawsuit here.


-------------------------------------

For those interested, here are the candidates who have been nominated since my last post:

United Conservative Party:

• Cardston-Siksika: Joseph Schow, former Jason Kenney leadership staffer
• Central Peace-Notley: Todd Loewen, incumbent MLA (elected WRP) for Grande Prairie-Smoky
• Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville: Jackie Armstrong-Homeniuk, former PC Party Regional Director

New Democratic Party:

• Central Peace-Notley: Marg McCuaig-Boyd, Energy Minister and MLA for Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley
• Drayton Valley-Devon: Kieran Quirke, Chair of the Leduc-Nisku Economic Development Board

Alberta Party:

• Calgary-Klein: Kara Levis, former ABP leadership candidate and lawyer at Transcanada
• Drumheller-Stettler: Mark Nikota, former Mayor of Hanna
• Edmonton-Ellerslie: Yash Sharma, publisher and TV producer
• Edmonton-Whitemud: Jonathan Dai, teacher and former Alberta PC/federal Liberal candidate

Liberal Party:

• Calgary-North East: Gul Khan, entrepreneur

[Njall]

Transportation Minister and longtime NDP MLA Brian Mason is retiring from politics at the 2019 election. I believe that Mason is the longest-currently-serving MLA, having represented Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood since a 2000 by-election. His political career will have spanned nearly 30 years at the next election, as he was first elected to Edmonton city council in 1989. He was NDP leader between 2004 and 2014, and has been lauded across the aisle as one of the most hardworking, capable, and passionate MLAs in Alberta (even winning praise from arch-conservatives like MLA Derek Fildebrandt and Calgary Sun columnist Rick Bell).

[136or142]

Transportation Minister and longtime NDP MLA Brian Mason is retiring from politics at the 2019 election. I believe that Mason is the longest-currently-serving MLA, having represented Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood since a 2000 by-election. His political career will have spanned nearly 30 years at the next election, as he was first elected to Edmonton city council in 1989. He was NDP leader between 2004 and 2014, and has been lauded across the aisle as one of the most hardworking, capable, and passionate MLAs in Alberta (even winning praise from arch-conservatives like MLA Derek Fildebrandt and Calgary Sun columnist Rick Bell).

I wouldn't mind going with David Christopherson and Brian Mason on a road trip across Canada.

[mileslunn]

Transportation Minister and longtime NDP MLA Brian Mason is retiring from politics at the 2019 election. I believe that Mason is the longest-currently-serving MLA, having represented Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood since a 2000 by-election. His political career will have spanned nearly 30 years at the next election, as he was first elected to Edmonton city council in 1989. He was NDP leader between 2004 and 2014, and has been lauded across the aisle as one of the most hardworking, capable, and passionate MLAs in Alberta (even winning praise from arch-conservatives like MLA Derek Fildebrandt and Calgary Sun columnist Rick Bell).

It will be interesting to see who NDP gets as I think this might attract a strong candidate including even someone with future leadership ambitions.  It is a very safe NDP riding so even if the NDP loses as expected, I suspect they will easily win this riding so might be a good place for someone with NDP leadership ambitions who is not part of the caucus to run.

[136or142]

Transportation Minister and longtime NDP MLA Brian Mason is retiring from politics at the 2019 election. I believe that Mason is the longest-currently-serving MLA, having represented Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood since a 2000 by-election. His political career will have spanned nearly 30 years at the next election, as he was first elected to Edmonton city council in 1989. He was NDP leader between 2004 and 2014, and has been lauded across the aisle as one of the most hardworking, capable, and passionate MLAs in Alberta (even winning praise from arch-conservatives like MLA Derek Fildebrandt and Calgary Sun columnist Rick Bell).

It will be interesting to see who NDP gets as I think this might attract a strong candidate including even someone with future leadership ambitions.  It is a very safe NDP riding so even if the NDP loses as expected, I suspect they will easily win this riding so might be a good place for someone with NDP leadership ambitions who is not part of the caucus to run.

I think you are the one promoting the idea that Rachel Notley will step down if the NDP loses the next election.  I'm not sure what you base this on.  According to the polls at present, the NDP will most likely receive its second highest amount of seats and votes in the upcoming Alberta election.  If the NDP wins around 30 seats I think she would be in a very strong position to remain as leader and fight a rematch with Jason Kenney (assuming Donald Trump hasn't caused a nuclear holocaust by then.)

[lilTommy]

Transportation Minister and longtime NDP MLA Brian Mason is retiring from politics at the 2019 election. I believe that Mason is the longest-currently-serving MLA, having represented Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood since a 2000 by-election. His political career will have spanned nearly 30 years at the next election, as he was first elected to Edmonton city council in 1989. He was NDP leader between 2004 and 2014, and has been lauded across the aisle as one of the most hardworking, capable, and passionate MLAs in Alberta (even winning praise from arch-conservatives like MLA Derek Fildebrandt and Calgary Sun columnist Rick Bell).

It will be interesting to see who NDP gets as I think this might attract a strong candidate including even someone with future leadership ambitions.  It is a very safe NDP riding so even if the NDP loses as expected, I suspect they will easily win this riding so might be a good place for someone with NDP leadership ambitions who is not part of the caucus to run.

Two names have already popped up as likely candidates:
http://daveberta.ca/2018/07/brian-mason-retires-ndp-edmonton-highlands-norwood/

2015 federal NDP candidate Janis Irwin and former Public Interest Alberta executive director Bill Moore-Kilgannon.

[mileslunn]

Transportation Minister and longtime NDP MLA Brian Mason is retiring from politics at the 2019 election. I believe that Mason is the longest-currently-serving MLA, having represented Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood since a 2000 by-election. His political career will have spanned nearly 30 years at the next election, as he was first elected to Edmonton city council in 1989. He was NDP leader between 2004 and 2014, and has been lauded across the aisle as one of the most hardworking, capable, and passionate MLAs in Alberta (even winning praise from arch-conservatives like MLA Derek Fildebrandt and Calgary Sun columnist Rick Bell).

It will be interesting to see who NDP gets as I think this might attract a strong candidate including even someone with future leadership ambitions.  It is a very safe NDP riding so even if the NDP loses as expected, I suspect they will easily win this riding so might be a good place for someone with NDP leadership ambitions who is not part of the caucus to run.

I think you are the one promoting the idea that Rachel Notley will step down if the NDP loses the next election.  I'm not sure what you base this on.  According to the polls at present, the NDP will most likely receive its second highest amount of seats and votes in the upcoming Alberta election.  If the NDP wins around 30 seats I think she would be in a very strong position to remain as leader and fight a rematch with Jason Kenney (assuming Donald Trump hasn't caused a nuclear holocaust by then.)

Perhaps, but I don't know of many cases when a party went from government to opposition and their leader stayed on.  The only few that come to mind are Joe Clark but he lost a subsequent leadership race, John Turner (who never actually won an election), and Dave Barrett.  Could be wrong but I think it has been a long time since someone lost an election and then returned to power later so while you might be right, my guess is unless a minority government she will probably step down if they lose.  And even if she stays on, still could for future leadership to run there since I suspect if she stays on but fails to come back in 2023, she will step down.

[136or142]

Transportation Minister and longtime NDP MLA Brian Mason is retiring from politics at the 2019 election. I believe that Mason is the longest-currently-serving MLA, having represented Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood since a 2000 by-election. His political career will have spanned nearly 30 years at the next election, as he was first elected to Edmonton city council in 1989. He was NDP leader between 2004 and 2014, and has been lauded across the aisle as one of the most hardworking, capable, and passionate MLAs in Alberta (even winning praise from arch-conservatives like MLA Derek Fildebrandt and Calgary Sun columnist Rick Bell).

It will be interesting to see who NDP gets as I think this might attract a strong candidate including even someone with future leadership ambitions.  It is a very safe NDP riding so even if the NDP loses as expected, I suspect they will easily win this riding so might be a good place for someone with NDP leadership ambitions who is not part of the caucus to run.

I think you are the one promoting the idea that Rachel Notley will step down if the NDP loses the next election.  I'm not sure what you base this on.  According to the polls at present, the NDP will most likely receive its second highest amount of seats and votes in the upcoming Alberta election.  If the NDP wins around 30 seats I think she would be in a very strong position to remain as leader and fight a rematch with Jason Kenney (assuming Donald Trump hasn't caused a nuclear holocaust by then.)

Perhaps, but I don't know of many cases when a party went from government to opposition and their leader stayed on.  The only few that come to mind are Joe Clark but he lost a subsequent leadership race, John Turner (who never actually won an election), and Dave Barrett.  Could be wrong but I think it has been a long time since someone lost an election and then returned to power later so while you might be right, my guess is unless a minority government she will probably step down if they lose.  And even if she stays on, still could for future leadership to run there since I suspect if she stays on but fails to come back in 2023, she will step down.

Allan Blakeney also stayed on for the 1986 election after losing in 1981 in Saskatchewan. As did Woodrow Lloyd  who was defeated in 1964.  Of course, these both go back a ways.  The NDP has given multiple opportunities to leaders who lost an election but who were never Premier Gary Doer, (though technically he was Premier for a few weeks, he never accepted the title) Andrea Horwath....

The Rachel Notley situation is unique because it was such a 'bonus' for the NDP to win the election, I'd find it hard to believe all that many New Democrats in Alberta would force her out if the NDP lost in 2019.  Is there a logical successor to her?

Given that Brian Mason in one article, for instance, admitted that it's harder to be in government than in opposition, I can imagine Notley would relish the opportunity of the tables being turned against Jason Kenney (though, of course, she'd prefer to beat him in 2019.)

[adma]

Allan Blakeney also stayed on for the 1986 election after losing in 1981 in Saskatchewan. As did Woodrow Lloyd  who was defeated in 1964.  Of course, these both go back a ways.  The NDP has given multiple opportunities to leaders who lost an election but who were never Premier Gary Doer, (though technically he was Premier for a few weeks, he never accepted the title)

And also BC's Dave Barrett in 1979 and 1983 after being defeated in 1975.

[Njall]

Transportation Minister and longtime NDP MLA Brian Mason is retiring from politics at the 2019 election. I believe that Mason is the longest-currently-serving MLA, having represented Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood since a 2000 by-election. His political career will have spanned nearly 30 years at the next election, as he was first elected to Edmonton city council in 1989. He was NDP leader between 2004 and 2014, and has been lauded across the aisle as one of the most hardworking, capable, and passionate MLAs in Alberta (even winning praise from arch-conservatives like MLA Derek Fildebrandt and Calgary Sun columnist Rick Bell).

It will be interesting to see who NDP gets as I think this might attract a strong candidate including even someone with future leadership ambitions.  It is a very safe NDP riding so even if the NDP loses as expected, I suspect they will easily win this riding so might be a good place for someone with NDP leadership ambitions who is not part of the caucus to run.

I think you are the one promoting the idea that Rachel Notley will step down if the NDP loses the next election.  I'm not sure what you base this on.  According to the polls at present, the NDP will most likely receive its second highest amount of seats and votes in the upcoming Alberta election.  If the NDP wins around 30 seats I think she would be in a very strong position to remain as leader and fight a rematch with Jason Kenney (assuming Donald Trump hasn't caused a nuclear holocaust by then.)

Perhaps, but I don't know of many cases when a party went from government to opposition and their leader stayed on.  The only few that come to mind are Joe Clark but he lost a subsequent leadership race, John Turner (who never actually won an election), and Dave Barrett.  Could be wrong but I think it has been a long time since someone lost an election and then returned to power later so while you might be right, my guess is unless a minority government she will probably step down if they lose.  And even if she stays on, still could for future leadership to run there since I suspect if she stays on but fails to come back in 2023, she will step down.

Allan Blakeney also stayed on for the 1986 election after losing in 1981 in Saskatchewan. As did Woodrow Lloyd  who was defeated in 1964.  Of course, these both go back a ways.  The NDP has given multiple opportunities to leaders who lost an election but who were never Premier Gary Doer, (though technically he was Premier for a few weeks, he never accepted the title) Andrea Horwath....

The Rachel Notley situation is unique because it was such a 'bonus' for the NDP to win the election, I'd find it hard to believe all that many New Democrats in Alberta would force her out if the NDP lost in 2019.  Is there a logical successor to her?

Given that Brian Mason in one article, for instance, admitted that it's harder to be in government than in opposition, I can imagine Notley would relish the opportunity of the tables being turned against Jason Kenney (though, of course, she'd prefer to beat him in 2019.)

That's the big question the NDP would have to face, because I'd say the general consensus would be that there isn't a go-to logical successor to her. In thinking about the public profile and rough public perception of the members of the NDP caucus, the following would be my list (in no particular order) of potential NDP leadership contenders were Notley to step down:

• David Eggen (Edmonton-Calder): Minister of Education, 2014 leadership candidate, and 3rd-longest serving caucus member after Mason and Notley
• Sarah Hoffman (Edmonton-Glenora): Deputy Premier and Minister of Health, former Edmonton Public School Trustee
• Deron Bilous (Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview): Minister of Economic Development and Trade, and along with Eggen, one of the two potential candidates who was an NDP MLA prior to 2015
• Joe Ceci (Calgary-Fort): Minister of Finance (and therefore senior Calgary caucus member), and former Calgary City Councillor
• Ricardo Miranda (Calgary-Cross): Minister of Culture and Tourism
• Shannon Phillips (Lethbridge-West): Minister of Environment, and considered (though with little substantive evidence) to be the most left-wing cabinet minister
• Danielle Larivee (Lesser Slave Lake): Minister of Children's Services and Status of Women

In addition to those above, I could also see either Rod Loyola (MLA for Edmonton-Ellerslie) or Gil McGowan (President of the Alberta Federation of Labour) running as an organized labour-oriented candidate.

[mileslunn]

Transportation Minister and longtime NDP MLA Brian Mason is retiring from politics at the 2019 election. I believe that Mason is the longest-currently-serving MLA, having represented Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood since a 2000 by-election. His political career will have spanned nearly 30 years at the next election, as he was first elected to Edmonton city council in 1989. He was NDP leader between 2004 and 2014, and has been lauded across the aisle as one of the most hardworking, capable, and passionate MLAs in Alberta (even winning praise from arch-conservatives like MLA Derek Fildebrandt and Calgary Sun columnist Rick Bell).

It will be interesting to see who NDP gets as I think this might attract a strong candidate including even someone with future leadership ambitions.  It is a very safe NDP riding so even if the NDP loses as expected, I suspect they will easily win this riding so might be a good place for someone with NDP leadership ambitions who is not part of the caucus to run.

I think you are the one promoting the idea that Rachel Notley will step down if the NDP loses the next election.  I'm not sure what you base this on.  According to the polls at present, the NDP will most likely receive its second highest amount of seats and votes in the upcoming Alberta election.  If the NDP wins around 30 seats I think she would be in a very strong position to remain as leader and fight a rematch with Jason Kenney (assuming Donald Trump hasn't caused a nuclear holocaust by then.)

Perhaps, but I don't know of many cases when a party went from government to opposition and their leader stayed on.  The only few that come to mind are Joe Clark but he lost a subsequent leadership race, John Turner (who never actually won an election), and Dave Barrett.  Could be wrong but I think it has been a long time since someone lost an election and then returned to power later so while you might be right, my guess is unless a minority government she will probably step down if they lose.  And even if she stays on, still could for future leadership to run there since I suspect if she stays on but fails to come back in 2023, she will step down.

Allan Blakeney also stayed on for the 1986 election after losing in 1981 in Saskatchewan. As did Woodrow Lloyd  who was defeated in 1964.  Of course, these both go back a ways.  The NDP has given multiple opportunities to leaders who lost an election but who were never Premier Gary Doer, (though technically he was Premier for a few weeks, he never accepted the title) Andrea Horwath....

The Rachel Notley situation is unique because it was such a 'bonus' for the NDP to win the election, I'd find it hard to believe all that many New Democrats in Alberta would force her out if the NDP lost in 2019.  Is there a logical successor to her?

Given that Brian Mason in one article, for instance, admitted that it's harder to be in government than in opposition, I can imagine Notley would relish the opportunity of the tables being turned against Jason Kenney (though, of course, she'd prefer to beat him in 2019.)

That's the big question the NDP would have to face, because I'd say the general consensus would be that there isn't a go-to logical successor to her. In thinking about the public profile and rough public perception of the members of the NDP caucus, the following would be my list (in no particular order) of potential NDP leadership contenders were Notley to step down:

• David Eggen (Edmonton-Calder): Minister of Education, 2014 leadership candidate, and 3rd-longest serving caucus member after Mason and Notley
• Sarah Hoffman (Edmonton-Glenora): Deputy Premier and Minister of Health, former Edmonton Public School Trustee
• Deron Bilous (Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview): Minister of Economic Development and Trade, and along with Eggen, one of the two potential candidates who was an NDP MLA prior to 2015
• Joe Ceci (Calgary-Fort): Minister of Finance (and therefore senior Calgary caucus member), and former Calgary City Councillor
• Ricardo Miranda (Calgary-Cross): Minister of Culture and Tourism
• Shannon Phillips (Lethbridge-West): Minister of Environment, and considered (though with little substantive evidence) to be the most left-wing cabinet minister
• Danielle Larivee (Lesser Slave Lake): Minister of Children's Services and Status of Women

In addition to those above, I could also see either Rod Loyola (MLA for Edmonton-Ellerslie) or Gil McGowan (President of the Alberta Federation of Labour) running as an organized labour-oriented candidate.

Off course those ones have to hold their seats.  I suspect UCP will pick up Calgary-Cross and Lesser Slave Lake unless they lose the election in which Notley stays on for sure.  Sarah Hoffman would be a huge turnoff to swing voters so the party choosing her would be making a big mistake.  In fairness actually Notley is probably the best they have so I could see them keeping her but depends on how they do.  If they get say 30 seats, she probably has a strong argument to stay on, but if they drop to only 10 seats it will be a much tougher one. 

[adma]

In fairness actually Notley is probably the best they have so I could see them keeping her but depends on how they do.  If they get say 30 seats, she probably has a strong argument to stay on, but if they drop to only 10 seats it will be a much tougher one. 

Again, Allan Blakeney in Saskatchewan was reduced to 9 seats in 1982 and survived to lead in 1986.

[Njall]

Transportation Minister and longtime NDP MLA Brian Mason is retiring from politics at the 2019 election. I believe that Mason is the longest-currently-serving MLA, having represented Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood since a 2000 by-election. His political career will have spanned nearly 30 years at the next election, as he was first elected to Edmonton city council in 1989. He was NDP leader between 2004 and 2014, and has been lauded across the aisle as one of the most hardworking, capable, and passionate MLAs in Alberta (even winning praise from arch-conservatives like MLA Derek Fildebrandt and Calgary Sun columnist Rick Bell).

It will be interesting to see who NDP gets as I think this might attract a strong candidate including even someone with future leadership ambitions.  It is a very safe NDP riding so even if the NDP loses as expected, I suspect they will easily win this riding so might be a good place for someone with NDP leadership ambitions who is not part of the caucus to run.

I think you are the one promoting the idea that Rachel Notley will step down if the NDP loses the next election.  I'm not sure what you base this on.  According to the polls at present, the NDP will most likely receive its second highest amount of seats and votes in the upcoming Alberta election.  If the NDP wins around 30 seats I think she would be in a very strong position to remain as leader and fight a rematch with Jason Kenney (assuming Donald Trump hasn't caused a nuclear holocaust by then.)

Perhaps, but I don't know of many cases when a party went from government to opposition and their leader stayed on.  The only few that come to mind are Joe Clark but he lost a subsequent leadership race, John Turner (who never actually won an election), and Dave Barrett.  Could be wrong but I think it has been a long time since someone lost an election and then returned to power later so while you might be right, my guess is unless a minority government she will probably step down if they lose.  And even if she stays on, still could for future leadership to run there since I suspect if she stays on but fails to come back in 2023, she will step down.

Allan Blakeney also stayed on for the 1986 election after losing in 1981 in Saskatchewan. As did Woodrow Lloyd  who was defeated in 1964.  Of course, these both go back a ways.  The NDP has given multiple opportunities to leaders who lost an election but who were never Premier Gary Doer, (though technically he was Premier for a few weeks, he never accepted the title) Andrea Horwath....

The Rachel Notley situation is unique because it was such a 'bonus' for the NDP to win the election, I'd find it hard to believe all that many New Democrats in Alberta would force her out if the NDP lost in 2019.  Is there a logical successor to her?

Given that Brian Mason in one article, for instance, admitted that it's harder to be in government than in opposition, I can imagine Notley would relish the opportunity of the tables being turned against Jason Kenney (though, of course, she'd prefer to beat him in 2019.)

That's the big question the NDP would have to face, because I'd say the general consensus would be that there isn't a go-to logical successor to her. In thinking about the public profile and rough public perception of the members of the NDP caucus, the following would be my list (in no particular order) of potential NDP leadership contenders were Notley to step down:

• David Eggen (Edmonton-Calder): Minister of Education, 2014 leadership candidate, and 3rd-longest serving caucus member after Mason and Notley
• Sarah Hoffman (Edmonton-Glenora): Deputy Premier and Minister of Health, former Edmonton Public School Trustee
• Deron Bilous (Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview): Minister of Economic Development and Trade, and along with Eggen, one of the two potential candidates who was an NDP MLA prior to 2015
• Joe Ceci (Calgary-Fort): Minister of Finance (and therefore senior Calgary caucus member), and former Calgary City Councillor
• Ricardo Miranda (Calgary-Cross): Minister of Culture and Tourism
• Shannon Phillips (Lethbridge-West): Minister of Environment, and considered (though with little substantive evidence) to be the most left-wing cabinet minister
• Danielle Larivee (Lesser Slave Lake): Minister of Children's Services and Status of Women

In addition to those above, I could also see either Rod Loyola (MLA for Edmonton-Ellerslie) or Gil McGowan (President of the Alberta Federation of Labour) running as an organized labour-oriented candidate.

Off course those ones have to hold their seats.  I suspect UCP will pick up Calgary-Cross and Lesser Slave Lake unless they lose the election in which Notley stays on for sure.  Sarah Hoffman would be a huge turnoff to swing voters so the party choosing her would be making a big mistake.  In fairness actually Notley is probably the best they have so I could see them keeping her but depends on how they do.  If they get say 30 seats, she probably has a strong argument to stay on, but if they drop to only 10 seats it will be a much tougher one. 

I think we may be surprised in both Calgary-Cross and Lesser Slave Lake. Larivee and Miranda have both proven themselves to be capable cabinet minsters and popular local constituency MLAs. And there are local factors to consider in both ridings that make them tougher to predict based on the past election results. For Miranda, the new boundaries of Calgary-Cross blend parts of the old Calgary-Cross, Calgary-East, and Calgary-Greenway. In 2015, the PCs had very strong candidates in two of these ridings: Rick Hanson (former Calgary Police Chief) in Cross and Manmeet Bhullar in Greenway. This makes the area contained in the new Calgary-Cross look friendlier to the UCP than it would have with "generic" 2015 PC candidates. Politics in northeast Calgary is also much more highly dependent on the strength of local candidates, and their ties to major cultural/religious groups in the area, than the rest of Calgary. Depending on the candidates picked by the other parties, this may help or hurt Miranda, but I wouldn't count him out yet.

For Larivee, I'd point out that Lesser Slave Lake is the only indigenous minority-majority riding in Alberta (it was 54% indigenous in 2011 under the old boundaries, which have barely changed). If indigenous turnout is as strong or stronger than 2015, that will help boost Larivee. In addition, the incumbent PC MLA (Pearl Calahasen) who Larivee defeated was a long-time incumbent and a member of the local Metis community, which boosted PC results in some of the heavier-Metis polls. Like Calgary-Cross, this has the result of inflating the approximate UCP strength in the area in 2015.

Neither of them are a sure thing, but overall I'd put Cross as about the 6th most likely NDP hold in Calgary, and Lesser Slave Lake as one of the most likely NDP rural holds.

[Njall]

UCP MLA and Deputy Whip Prab Gill (Calgary-Greenway) has resigned from caucus and won't seek re-election following a Party investigation into allegations of ballot stuffing at the founding meeting for the new Calgary-North East constituency association, where Gill had been seeking re-nomination.

Also in UCP news, one of the nomination candidates in Brooks-Medicine Hat was disqualified from the contest after social media posts came to light where he had used anti-Islam slurs.