Alberta Election 2019

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Question about Calgary: why do they keep on reelecting Nenshi if they are so conservative?

[Njall]

As a Calgarian, the simplest way I can explain it is that Calgarians are big-C Conservative, but when party identity is taken out of the equation, Calgarians tend to vote in a more centrist/progressive way. Our 2 mayors prior to Nenshi, at least, were strongly Liberal

[mileslunn]

As a Calgarian, the simplest way I can explain it is that Calgarians are big-C Conservative, but when party identity is taken out of the equation, Calgarians tend to vote in a more centrist/progressive way. Our 2 mayors prior to Nenshi, at least, were strongly Liberal

I think Calgarians are also regionalist too so they don't mind bigger government if closer to home, but the further away it gets the more they think it will be hostile to them.  Otherwise most progressive at municipal, somewhere in between provincially, while most conservative at federal level.

[136or142]

By 'progressive' standards outside of Alberta, from what (admittedly) little I know about Nenshi, he's pretty conservative.

[adma]

As a Calgarian, the simplest way I can explain it is that Calgarians are big-C Conservative, but when party identity is taken out of the equation, Calgarians tend to vote in a more centrist/progressive way. Our 2 mayors prior to Nenshi, at least, were strongly Liberal

And even Ralph Klein was a Liberal when elected Calgary Mayor (he switched teams when he went provincial)

[Njall]

By 'progressive' standards outside of Alberta, from what (admittedly) little I know about Nenshi, he's pretty conservative.

He’s moderately conservative fiscally, but strongly socially progressive

[MaxQue]

Canada also has a wierd tendency to elect mayors of the opposite side of their usual voting.

[Smid]

I think Nenshi also benefits from low turnout in the more conservative suburbs, although that's more an assumption than an analysis... He also is very charismatic and plain-speaking, just says what he thinks, regardless of whether popular or not/politically correct (I'm thinking specifically of this story). You know, sort of joking about Darwin Awards is not something the typical politician would do, but he's really just saying what people are thinking, so it's kind of refreshing that he's setting aside political correctness. Now that I've typed that, it sounds a bit like a certain US President, however he has a very different tone, obviously.

[136or142]

By 'progressive' standards outside of Alberta, from what (admittedly) little I know about Nenshi, he's pretty conservative.

He’s moderately conservative fiscally, but strongly socially progressive

Yes, that's what I was mostly thinking of.  However, he's also spoken strongly in favor of the pipelines (obviously not a big surprise for the mayor of Calgary, however, it doesn't win 'progressive' credentials outside of Alberta) and he was a big proponent of the Olympic bid.

[DL]

The UCP is still heavily favoured to win but FWIW the paywalled daily tracking from Mainstreet has the UCP lead is now barely in double digits and the NDP is now ahead in Edmonton and almost tied with the UCP in Calgary while the UCP is potentially wasting a ton of votes with a North Korean-style margin in rural Alberta.

If the UCP province-wide lead slips further to say mid-single digits, then things could actually get interesting

[DL]

The UCP lead over the NDP continues to narrow and the NDP continues to gain ground in Edmonton and Calgary...

[Jeppe]

What’s the sweet spot for a narrow NDP victory? A 5 point popular vote deficit?

Would be hilarious if Notley lost the popular vote but won more seats like the Saskatchewan NDP in 2003.

[DL]

In 1996 the BC NDP lost the popular vote to the BC Liberals 41-38 butbthey won in seats 39-33

[adma]

The UCP lead over the NDP continues to narrow and the NDP continues to gain ground in Edmonton and Calgary...

What'd be interesting is if the NDP actually surpasses its 2015 Calgary performance (even though it's Kenney's  backyard)

[136or142]

In 1996 the BC NDP lost the popular vote to the BC Liberals 41-38 butbthey won in seats 39-33

The Saskatchewan P.Cs also lost the popular vote in 1986.

The biggest gap that I'm aware of is the recent New Brunswick election, though it resulted in a minority.  38.1-31.4% in favor of the Liberals but the P.Cs won the seat count 22-21.

[DL]

The UCP lead over the NDP continues to narrow and the NDP continues to gain ground in Edmonton and Calgary...

What'd be interesting is if the NDP actually surpasses its 2015 Calgary performance (even though it's Kenney's  backyard)

That is almost certain to happen. In 2015 the NDP won Calgary 35% to 33% for the PCs and 26% for Wildrose. In a pure two-way race its almost certain that the NDP will get over 40% in Calgary...I think that Calgary is moving away from its past as a conservative monolith and will start to have a voting pattern more like Edmonton, Regina, Saskatoon and Winnipeg

[mileslunn]

The UCP lead over the NDP continues to narrow and the NDP continues to gain ground in Edmonton and Calgary...

What'd be interesting is if the NDP actually surpasses its 2015 Calgary performance (even though it's Kenney's  backyard)

That is almost certain to happen. In 2015 the NDP won Calgary 35% to 33% for the PCs and 26% for Wildrose. In a pure two-way race its almost certain that the NDP will get over 40% in Calgary...I think that Calgary is moving away from its past as a conservative monolith and will start to have a voting pattern more like Edmonton, Regina, Saskatoon and Winnipeg

I think the south end of Calgary where Kenney and Harper hail from still remains quite conservative, but that area has always been an anomaly in urban Canada.  However the other parts of the city are more mixed bag.  Central part has a lot of millennials and renters so should be good for the NDP.  Eastern and Northern parts are very ethnically diverse so depends on who can appeal most here while Western part is fairly affluent thus should favour UCP, but also percentage with post-secondary degrees well above national average so more your traditional Progressive Conservatives as opposed to right wing populists.  In the next week hopefully some other public polls come out just as I like to do a comparison.

Nevertheless I always felt things would tighten up and unlike some I never thought this was in the bag.  UCP favoured, yes, but certain win no.

[DC Al Fine]

I don't have access to the Mainstreet daily tracking polls, but it seems like the Alberta and Liberal parties are at risk of getting crushed in a two horse race.

[mileslunn]

I don't have access to the Mainstreet daily tracking polls, but it seems like the Alberta and Liberal parties are at risk of getting crushed in a two horse race.

I think that was always a given when things are as polarized as they are.  If you want to get rid of Notley, UCP is your best bet.  If you want to stop Kenney from becoming premier, NDP is your best bet. 

[adma]

It all reminds me a bit of Quebec in 1981: the NDP/PQ running on first-term "good governance" that transcends the socialist/separatist stigma, vs a "natural governing party" seeking a united-force comeback as everything else gets sorted into the margins.  (And Claude Ryan's Liberals didn't have anything like UCP's bozo problems)

[MaxQue]

It all reminds me a bit of Quebec in 1981: the NDP/PQ running on first-term "good governance" that transcends the socialist/separatist stigma, vs a "natural governing party" seeking a united-force comeback as everything else gets sorted into the margins.  (And Claude Ryan's Liberals didn't have anything like UCP's bozo problems)

Well, Claude Ryan was claiming to be guided by "the hand of God".

[Njall]

EKOS poll for Unifor shows a tightening race, 46% for the UCP and 42% for the NDP

[Hatman 🍁]

As someone who worked on that poll, I would be a bit cautious. It was leaked by the client (we seem to have a problem with that, lol).

While the methodology is sound, my worry is that because we had to disclose the client (this is necessary under Alberta election law), conservatives were less likely to want to do the poll in the first place, as it was for a union.

[MaxQue]

As someone who worked on that poll, I would be a bit cautious. It was leaked by the client (we seem to have a problem with that, lol).

While the methodology is sound, my worry is that because we had to disclose the client (this is necessary under Alberta election law), conservatives were less likely to want to do the poll in the first place, as it was for a union.

Well, isn't the client allowed to leak his poll? He paid for it, after all.

[DL]

As someone who worked on that poll, I would be a bit cautious. It was leaked by the client (we seem to have a problem with that, lol).

While the methodology is sound, my worry is that because we had to disclose the client (this is necessary under Alberta election law), conservatives were less likely to want to do the poll in the first place, as it was for a union.

How many people in Alberta would even know what "unifor" is? Unless you are a serious political junkie you probably think its a forestry company