Alberta Election 2019

[adma]

A lot might also depend on whether a minor force like the Alberta Party is poised to reap writ-period rewards from a UCP backlash.

[Smid]

I did some work last year to come up with new vote margins following the redistribution, if anyone's interested.

Definitely interested.

I had to resize it because I'd forgotten the pixel dimension constraints, so the writing needs fixing up, and some of the boundaries aren't as tidy as I'd like, but I might do that down the track.

*Edit* I've tidied it up, so it's a bit neater and more like the maps I normally post (cleaned up the pixels along the boundaries). There is also a blank map version that I've uploaded to the gallery.

The shapefile looks like it's in Eastings and Northings instead of GPS coordinates, which seems odd, but I don't think that created any weirdness... keep an eye out for errors, though, just in case.

The estimated results took anything that is a poll and allocated it to the redistributed riding. I then tallied all votes cast in non-polls (Advance/Mobile/Postal/etc) and proportioned them based on the party's strength in each poll (party's vote in the poll compared to party's vote across the original riding, and then allocated the same proportion of declaration votes to that poll). This is slightly less accurate for the Advance Polls which relate to specific polls, but should be close enough.

There were a few polls that were split between two ridings. For rural polls that were thus split, I typically looked on Google Maps, identified the main township, and allocated the poll to wherever that township was transferred, but in some cases, I guessed what proportion of the poll was transferred into which riding (a few of these were split 50-50 between Calgary-Mountain View and Calgary-Klein).

DC - I can send you the .CSV of estimated party votes via Facebook Messenger, if you'd like. I can also send you a spreadsheet showing the poll transfers (2015 Riding Name, 2015 Poll Number, 2015 Poll Name, 2015 Enrolment, 2017 Riding Name, Transfer Weighting).

[DC Al Fine]

Sure that would be great.

[Smid]

Sure that would be great.

Okay, I've just sent that through to you.

[Harlow]

I did some work last year to come up with new vote margins following the redistribution, if anyone's interested.

Definitely interested.

Amazing blank map, thank you. Do you know if there's a redistricted blank version of PEI?

[Smid]

I did some work last year to come up with new vote margins following the redistribution, if anyone's interested.

Definitely interested.

Amazing blank map, thank you. Do you know if there's a redistricted blank version of PEI?

Thank you - I haven't been on here in a while, but I used to upload blank maps for Canadian and Australian elections after each redistribution.

Because it's been a few years, I'm not sure of the provinces where I'm behind. I can do PEI, no worries. Presumably they have GIS shapefiles? If not, it will be a little longer, but I suspect they have the shapefiles available for download.

[TJ in Oregon]

What differences in demographics and/or ideology lead Calgary and Edmonton to vote so differently?

[Ebsy]

What differences in demographics and/or ideology lead Calgary and Edmonton to vote so differently?

A lot more people dependent on the oil industry in Calgary I imagine.

[136or142]

What differences in demographics and/or ideology lead Calgary and Edmonton to vote so differently?

A lot more people dependent on the oil industry in Calgary I imagine.

Also, Edmonton is the capital, so it has a lot of civil servants.

[DC Al Fine]

What differences in demographics and/or ideology lead Calgary and Edmonton to vote so differently?

A lot more people dependent on the oil industry in Calgary I imagine.

Also, Edmonton is the capital, so it has a lot of civil servants.

Yes. It's not a perfect 1:1 analogy, but the differences are kind of like Houston and Austin.

[DL]

Yes. It's not a perfect 1:1 analogy, but the differences are kind of like Houston and Austin.

FYI, both Austin and Houston vote pretty overwhelmingly Democratic these days.

[adma]

It probably has something to do with Edmonton being more of a "mature" centre, and in many ways more of a westward cultural carryover from Manitoba and Saskatchewan, politically and demographically; whereas Calgary's development and political culture has tended more t/w "wild west" boomtown unruliness.  (Thus nicknames like "Edmonchuk" and "Redmonton")

[mileslunn]

Calgary has a lot of people in the oil industry and affected by that a lot thus why more conservative while Edmonton has more civil servants.  While not quite as noticeable, generally Conservatives and Saskatchewan Party do better in Saskatoon than Regina while in BC generally the right does even worse in the Greater Victoria area than Greater Vancouver area.  The one that bucks this is Quebec as Quebec City is actually fairly conservative even compared to many rural parts of the province while Montreal is off course fairly progressive.

As for Austin vs. Houston comparisons, I think those are still valid as suburbs around Austin are starting to go Democrat whereas in Houston suburbs for the most part, especially northern ones still GOP.  Likewise in Houston, it is 2/3 non-white thus why Democrats win the city proper and inner suburbs, amongst whites in Houston, I still suspect most vote GOP whereas I suspect in Austin Democrats even win the white vote.

[Njall]

Edmonton's workforce, at least the portion which is outside of the public sector, has also historically been of a more blue collar character than Calgary's, which leans more white collar. Compared to the average Calgary riding, the average Edmonton riding has a lower university-educated proportion of the population, a lower household income, a higher low-income population, and a higher proportion of the population in rental housing, to give a few indicators.

Interestingly, three of the NDP's historically-strongest ridings (Edmonton-Strathcona, Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood, and Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview) are amongst the five ridings with the highest low-income shares of the population.

While likely a minor factor in the overall scheme of things, Edmonton also has a markedly more sizeable urban indigenous population than Calgary, with indigenous people making up about twice the share of the population in Edmonton than they do in Calgary. Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood has the largest indigenous share of the population of any urban riding in Alberta, at 10.5%.

[Hatman 🍁]

I can't seem to find the redistributed results from 2015, can anyone pass it along to me?

[Smid]

I can't seem to find the redistributed results from 2015, can anyone pass it along to me?

Give me half an hour or so, I'll email you or send it via Messenger.

[Njall]

I've been sorting through some data from the Alberta electoral district profiles, which use data from the 2016 federal census sorted by provincial riding. Here are some top 10 lists which may be of interest from a political demographics perspective:

Top 10 ridings with the highest visible minority share of the population:
1. Calgary-McCall: 86.1%
2. Calgary-Falconridge: 68.0%
3. Calgary-North: 62.3%
4. Calgary-Cross: 58.9%
5. Edmonton-Ellerslie: 57.3%
6. Edmonton-Meadows: 54.8%
7. Calgary-North East: 54.0%
8. Calgary-Foothills: 50.9%
9. Edmonton-South: 47.7%
10. Calgary-Edgemont: 44.4%

Alberta Average: 23.5%


Top 10 ridings with the highest indigenous share of the population:
1. Lesser Slave Lake: 55.6%
2. Peace River: 27.5%
3. Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin: 25.0%
4. Cardston-Siksika: 22.3%
5. Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche: 21.3%
6. Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul: 18.1%
7. Central Peace-Notley: 14.9%
8. Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland: 14.3%
9. Banff-Kananaskis: 11.0%
10. Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood: 10.5%

Alberta Average: 6.4%


Top 10 ridings with the highest university-educated share of the population aged 15+:
1. Calgary-West: 61.4%
2. Calgary-Varsity: 57.9%
3. Calgary-Buffalo: 56.7%
4. Calgary-Elbow: 56.5%
5. Calgary-Mountain View: 55.0%
6. Edmonton-Whitemud: 53.0%
7. Calgary-North West: 52.9%
8. Calgary-Edgemont: 52.3%
9. Edmonton-Strathcona: 51.4%
10. Calgary-Bow: 47.0%

Alberta Average: 28.2%


Top 10 ridings by share of the population in low-income after-tax:
1. Edmonton-City Centre: 19.3%
2. Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood: 18.7%
3. Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview: 16.4%
4. Edmonton-Strathcona: 16.3%
5. Calgary-Buffalo: 16.1%
6. Lesser Slave Lake: 15.4%
7. Calgary-East: 14.9%
8. Calgary-Cross: 14.1%
9. Cardston-Siksika: 13.8%
10. Edmonton-Decore: 13.7%

Alberta Average: 9.3%


Top 10 ridings by median household income:
1. Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo: $211,636
2. Calgary-West: $153,405
3. Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche: $143,980
4. Strathcona-Sherwood Park: $141,717
5. Calgary-North West: $133,458
6. Calgary-South East: $131,735
7. Edmonton-Whitemud: $126,512
8. Morinville-St. Albert: $123,571
9. Edmonton-South West: $121,819
10. Airdrie-Cochrane: $119,331

Alberta Average: $93,931

[Smid]

Amazing blank map, thank you. Do you know if there's a redistricted blank version of PEI?

Done. Blank map in the Gallery, copy displayed in the relevant thread.

[136or142]

Alberta Party leader, Stephen Mandel, and several other Alberta Party candidates may have filed their nomination papers too late with Elections Alberta and may be disqualified from running.

This is the situation at the moment (disqualified from running) however, Mandel is appealing claiming the information he was given was unclear as it didn't specify what the starting date was (they had four months after that date to file) and that given the severity of the penalty, they deserve the benefit of the doubt.

[jimrtex]

I've been sorting through some data from the Alberta electoral district profiles, which use data from the 2016 federal census sorted by provincial riding. Here are some top 10 lists which may be of interest from a political demographics perspective:

Top 10 ridings with the highest visible minority share of the population:
1. Calgary-McCall: 86.1%
2. Calgary-Falconridge: 68.0%
3. Calgary-North: 62.3%
4. Calgary-Cross: 58.9%
5. Edmonton-Ellerslie: 57.3%
6. Edmonton-Meadows: 54.8%
7. Calgary-North East: 54.0%
8. Calgary-Foothills: 50.9%
9. Edmonton-South: 47.7%
10. Calgary-Edgemont: 44.4%

Alberta Average: 23.5%

Which groups are included, and which are represented in these areas?

[mileslunn]

Alberta Party leader, Stephen Mandel, and several other Alberta Party candidates may have filed their nomination papers too late with Elections Alberta and may be disqualified from running.

This is the situation at the moment (disqualified from running) however, Mandel is appealing claiming the information he was given was unclear as it didn't specify what the starting date was (they had four months after that date to file) and that given the severity of the penalty, they deserve the benefit of the doubt.

The party would still be able to run, but with the leader in question no doubt this will hurt what little chances they had.  What will be interesting is whom does the Alberta Party hurt more.  Are they most likely their membership former Red Tories from the Alberta PCs thus hurting the UCP more or are they more centrist New Democrats who normally vote Liberal but voted NDP in 2015.  In many ways the party is a centrist option for those who don't like the NDP, but find the UCP too right wing to park their votes.

[DC Al Fine]

I've been sorting through some data from the Alberta electoral district profiles, which use data from the 2016 federal census sorted by provincial riding. Here are some top 10 lists which may be of interest from a political demographics perspective:

Top 10 ridings with the highest visible minority share of the population:
1. Calgary-McCall: 86.1%
2. Calgary-Falconridge: 68.0%
3. Calgary-North: 62.3%
4. Calgary-Cross: 58.9%
5. Edmonton-Ellerslie: 57.3%
6. Edmonton-Meadows: 54.8%
7. Calgary-North East: 54.0%
8. Calgary-Foothills: 50.9%
9. Edmonton-South: 47.7%
10. Calgary-Edgemont: 44.4%

Alberta Average: 23.5%

Which groups are included, and which are represented in these areas?

Not sure about the second question, but in Canada, "Visible Minority" = "Anyone who isn't white or Aboriginal/Métis"

[Njall]

I've been sorting through some data from the Alberta electoral district profiles, which use data from the 2016 federal census sorted by provincial riding. Here are some top 10 lists which may be of interest from a political demographics perspective:

Top 10 ridings with the highest visible minority share of the population:
1. Calgary-McCall: 86.1%
2. Calgary-Falconridge: 68.0%
3. Calgary-North: 62.3%
4. Calgary-Cross: 58.9%
5. Edmonton-Ellerslie: 57.3%
6. Edmonton-Meadows: 54.8%
7. Calgary-North East: 54.0%
8. Calgary-Foothills: 50.9%
9. Edmonton-South: 47.7%
10. Calgary-Edgemont: 44.4%

Alberta Average: 23.5%

Which groups are included, and which are represented in these areas?

Not sure about the second question, but in Canada, "Visible Minority" = "Anyone who isn't white or Aboriginal/Métis"

Yup. Stats Canada uses the following categories of visible minority (VM): South Asian, Chinese, Black, Filipino, Latin American, Arab, Southeast Asian, West Asian, Korean, and Japanese. I'll run through each of the above ridings and go through the rough makeup, mentioning notable groups.

Calgary-McCall: Two-thirds of the VM population is South Asian. Another one-eighth is Filipino, with the rest disbursed amongst the remaining groups.

Calgary-Falconridge: One-half of the VM population is South Asian, with Blacks and Filipinos each representing a further one-eighth, and the rest disbursed amongst the remaining groups.

Calgary-North: About one-third of the VM population is Chinese, another quarter is South Asian, and one-tenth each is Black and Filipino.

Calgary-Cross: VM population is very heterogenous. About one-quarter is South Asian, while Filipinos, Blacks, and Arabs each represent about one-sixth, and Chinese and Southeast Asians each represent about one-tenth.

Edmonton-Ellerslie: A little over one-half of the VM population is South Asian, while another one-fifth is Filipino.

Edmonton-Meadows: Nearly two-thirds of the VM population is South Asian, and another one-eighth is Filipino.

Calgary-North East: A little more than one-third of the VM population is South Asian, while Filipinos and Chinese each represent about one-sixth and Blacks represent about one-eighth.

Calgary-Foothills: Chinese and South Asians each represent a little more than one-quarter of the VM population, while another one-eighth is Black and one-tenth is Filipino.

Edmonton-South: South Asians are almost one-third of the VM population, while Chinese are one-quarter, Filipinos are another one-eighth and Blacks are a further one-tenth. Koreans are also overrepresented here at 7% of the VM population compared to 2.3% province wide.

Calgary-Edgemont: Just over one-half of the VM population is Chinese, and another one-fifth is South Asian.

[Former President tack50]

For some reason it baffles me that there's a riding in Canada with a whopping 86% minority electorate. Or that there are 8 districts where they are a majority!

[Hatman 🍁]

For some reason it baffles me that there's a riding in Canada with a whopping 86% minority electorate. Or that there are 8 districts where they are a majority!

Our big cities aren't that White.