CPRM, Pt 2: AL (RO) 7/17; GA (RO) 7/24; TN 8/2; 274K ballots left in CA

[Politician]

Democrats really over-shot their coverage in a lot of these competitive districts - with the exception of the seats that California Dems have been typically targeting recently (CA-10, CA-25, and dear god CA-21 where Valadao crossed 60%).

After tonight I'm gonna just say CA-21 is Safe R for Valadao and CA-49 is looking more and more like Lean D (Dems are AHEAD of the GOP in a district that was basically made to be Safe Issa and a district with an R registration advantage).

I'd hold off on calling CA-21 safe right now. The Dem base there turns their ballots in last second (read: it'll take weeks to know what really happened), and always has pretty weak primary turnout

Agreed. Democrats in CA-21 often do not vote in primaries.

[Gass3268]

Yo Bagel23:

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1004343944178790400

[Oryxslayer]

Just got up, wen to bed at 3am est last night. Anyway looks like Rouda passed, Keirstead, which s nice. Overall, looks like Dems got everything they wanted.

Before the Dem-Leaning advance ballots, we have:

CA-10 Reps lead dems 52.1% - 47.9%
CA-25 Reps lead dems 52.8% - 47.2%
CA-39 Reps lead dems 54.1% - 44.1%
CA-45 Reps lead dems 53.2% - 44.4%
CA-48 Reps lead dems 53% - 46.1%
CA-49 Dems lead Reps 50..4% - 48.3%

Those are all improvements from 2016, where the primary was more tilted towards them dems thanks to Trump already having the nomination. I see no reason why they all won't be competitive in the fall.

[Gass3268]

Have I mentioned how good Dave Weigel is?

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1004235736047079425

[Gass3268]

When all the vote counting is over, Democrats might end up with more votes cast in Orange County:

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1004353533431468033

[Politician]

When all the vote counting is over, Democrats might end up with more votes cast in Orange County:

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1004353533431468033

RINO Tom won't be happy to see this.

[Oryxslayer]

When all the vote counting is over, Democrats might end up with more votes cast in Orange County:

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1004353533431468033

Dem's got more votes in Weak-Trump-voting Morris last night then Reps, I wouldn't be surprised if a similar situation emerges in Clinton-voting OC.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION: FEINSTEIN VS. DELEON

U.S. Senate
CANDIDATE   PARTY   VOTE   PCT.   
Dianne Feinstein*
Democrat
1,684,324   43.8%   
Kevin de León
Democrat
432,260   11.3   
James Bradley
Republican
337,790   8.8   
Arun Bhumitra
Republican
204,545   5.3   
Paul Taylor
Republican
196,351   5.1   

3,841,979 votes, 95% reporting (20,387 of 21,486 precincts)

[Gass3268]

When all the vote counting is over, Democrats might end up with more votes cast in Orange County:

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1004353533431468033

Dem's got more votes in Weak-Trump-voting Morris last night then Reps, I wouldn't be surprised if a similar situation emerges in Clinton-voting OC.

It's happening across the nation. DuPage County (IL), Gwinnett County (GA), Orange County (CA), Morris County (NJ), Chester County (PA), etc. Democrats are rockin' the suburbs, just like Michael Jackson did.

[ON Progressive]

When all the vote counting is over, Democrats might end up with more votes cast in Orange County:

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1004353533431468033

Dem's got more votes in Weak-Trump-voting Morris last night then Reps, I wouldn't be surprised if a similar situation emerges in Clinton-voting OC.

It's happening across the nation. DuPage County (IL), Gwinnett County (GA), Orange County (CA), Morris County (NJ), Chester County (PA), etc. Democrats are rockin' the suburbs, just like Michael Jackson did.

Don't tell RINO Tom!

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1004347715151638528

[Tintrlvr]

how many more ballots are there yet to be counted?

Hard to be sure but historically around 20-25% of the vote is counted later (generally with a heavy Dem skew).

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

My last projections for the June 5 primaries:

WULFRIC PROJECTIONS - IA:

Secretary of State
Democratic Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Deidre DeJear
80,950   51.2%   
Jim Mowrer
77,258   48.8   
158,208 votes, 100% reporting (1,677 of 1,677 precincts)

Agriculture Secretary
Republican Primary
Counties Reporting: 99 / 99
REP REP   Ray Gaesser16.21%14,287
REP REP   Chad Ingels8.89%7,833
REP REP   Craig Lang18.56%16,355
REP REP   Mike Naig34.74%30,616
REP REP   Dan Zumbach21.38%18,841
Write-in0.24%208
88,140

RESULT: No Winner, all candidates advance to open convention.

-----------------

WULFRIC PROJECTION - NM:

Land Commissioner
Democratic Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Stephanie Garcia Richard
65,336   39.5%   
Garrett Veneklasen
61,584   37.2   
George Munoz
38,551   23.3   
165,471 votes, 98% reporting (1,463 of 1,492 precincts)

WULFRIC PROJECTIONS - MT:

Senate
Republican Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Matt Rosendale
51,521   33.8%   
Russ Fagg
43,220   28.4   
Troy Downing
29,156   19.1   
Al Olszewski
28,547   18.7   
152,444 votes, 99% reporting (660 of 669 precincts)

Senate
Independent Party Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Steve Kelly
935   59.3%   
Timothy Adams
643   40.7   
1,578 votes, 99% reporting (660 of 669 precincts)

U.S. House At-Large District
Democratic Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Kathleen Williams
37,062   33.5%   
John Heenan
35,111   31.7   
Grant Kier
26,812   24.2   
Lynda Moss
5,555   5.0   
John Meyer
3,668   3.3   
Jared Pettinato
2,431   2.2   
110,639 votes, 99% reporting (660 of 669 precincts)


--------------


In other news, all of my projections for this set of primaries were correct.

[Politician]

My last projections for the June 5 primaries:

WULFRIC PROJECTIONS - IA:

Secretary of State
Democratic Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Deidre DeJear
80,950   51.2%   
Jim Mowrer
77,258   48.8   
158,208 votes, 100% reporting (1,677 of 1,677 precincts)

Agriculture Secretary
Republican Primary
Counties Reporting: 99 / 99
REP REP   Ray Gaesser16.21%14,287
REP REP   Chad Ingels8.89%7,833
REP REP   Craig Lang18.56%16,355
REP REP   Mike Naig34.74%30,616
REP REP   Dan Zumbach21.38%18,841
Write-in0.24%208
88,140

RESULT: No Winner, all candidates advance to open convention.

-----------------

WULFRIC PROJECTION - NM:

Land Commissioner
Democratic Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Stephanie Garcia Richard
65,336   39.5%   
Garrett Veneklasen
61,584   37.2   
George Munoz
38,551   23.3   
165,471 votes, 98% reporting (1,463 of 1,492 precincts)

WULFRIC PROJECTIONS - MT:

Senate
Republican Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Matt Rosendale
51,521   33.8%   
Russ Fagg
43,220   28.4   
Troy Downing
29,156   19.1   
Al Olszewski
28,547   18.7   
152,444 votes, 99% reporting (660 of 669 precincts)

Senate
Independent Party Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Steve Kelly
935   59.3%   
Timothy Adams
643   40.7   
1,578 votes, 99% reporting (660 of 669 precincts)

U.S. House At-Large District
Democratic Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Kathleen Williams
37,062   33.5%   
John Heenan
35,111   31.7   
Grant Kier
26,812   24.2   
Lynda Moss
5,555   5.0   
John Meyer
3,668   3.3   
Jared Pettinato
2,431   2.2   
110,639 votes, 99% reporting (660 of 669 precincts)


--------------


In other news, all of my projections for this set of primaries were correct.

Can you finally move CA-GOV to Safe D???

[GMantis]

Major yikes at Rouda beating Keirstead by 73 votes for second place. Can't imagine how dinner will be tonight at the Keirstead household.

There are a ton more votes to count, so don't bet on it being the final margin.

Given the total amount of primary votes already counted, I doubt there are 'a ton.'  A fair amount, certainly, and certainly more than enough to overturn this result, though.

My bad! NYT had it at 100% in.

They are 100%, but only partially reporting due to the late vote. It's why the NYT has not called many races yet.

[Nyvin]

Kinda funny that CA-10 ended up being the closest to a dem lock out when everyone was fretting over 39, 48, and 49 the whole time.

[junior chįmp]

Intrestadting:

https://www.twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1004360285568798722

[Blair]

Have I mentioned how good Dave Weigel is?

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1004235736047079425

I’ve never understood how voting for a random no name R who would lose by 30 points would inspire GOP voters? It’s not as if Cox has billions to spend either.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

@Newt Gingrich: Yes

-----

It's now time to update my amazing senate primary turnout map. As announced last night, New Jersey Democrats and Mississippi Republicans were equally strong, each getting about 65% of the primary vote. In New Mexico, Mr. Heinrich received an amazing 69% of the primary vote, making it even more clear that his re-election is secure. In Montana, 57% of the primary vote went to Republicans. As the Republican side was the only contested primary, this does not necessarily portend doom for Mr. Tester. In California, 2,401,098 votes have been recorded for Democratic Candidates, comprising 62% of the votes cast in the Jungle Primary. Republicans have so far received 1,342,004 votes, comprising 35% of the primary vote.

[john cage bubblegum]

To give you an idea of how much of the vote is still out in CA, even with 100% precincts reporting nearly everywhere - there are 188k ballots still to be counted in Orange County.  369k ballots have been counted in Orange County so far.  So that's 1/3 of the total OC vote that will be counted over the coming weeks.

[GeorgiaModerate]

To give you an idea of how much of the vote is still out in CA, even with 100% precincts reporting nearly everywhere - there are 188k ballots still to be counted in Orange County.  369k ballots have been counted in Orange County so far.  So that's 1/3 of the total OC vote that will be counted over the coming weeks.

It could even be more than 188K as additional ballots trickle in through Friday.

[john cage bubblegum]

To give you an idea of how much of the vote is still out in CA, even with 100% precincts reporting nearly everywhere - there are 188k ballots still to be counted in Orange County.  369k ballots have been counted in Orange County so far.  So that's 1/3 of the total OC vote that will be counted over the coming weeks.

It could even be more than 188K as additional ballots trickle in through Friday.

Right, that number will inch up.  So maybe something like 35% of the vote yet to be counted?  Dang.  Still way too early to examine the total D vs. R numbers in a given district.

[IceSpear]

To give you an idea of how much of the vote is still out in CA, even with 100% precincts reporting nearly everywhere - there are 188k ballots still to be counted in Orange County.  369k ballots have been counted in Orange County so far.  So that's 1/3 of the total OC vote that will be counted over the coming weeks.

It could even be more than 188K as additional ballots trickle in through Friday.

Right, that number will inch up.  So maybe something like 35% of the vote yet to be counted?  Dang.  Still way too early to examine the total D vs. R numbers in a given district.

Yep, there's still a long way to go. Way too early to analyze and give hot takes on margins, especially since later counted ballots tend to skew D.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Michael Jackson's lawyer is getting less than 2% in the Senate primary, behind TYT stan Alison Hartson.

It's a shame they put so much effort into this and not let de Leon have it. The 400K Harston raised in this race could have given Menendez a scare for his life in which at worst he would have drifted left.

Tonight shows that a well-funded progressive challenger would've taken down Menendez. It is a pock on the houses of every organization that grew out of Bernie 2016 -- Our Revolution, Justice Democrats, Brand New Congress, even my organization the DSA -- that they didn't even attempt to find one.

There was no lefty professor from Rutgers? No county official? No longtime activist? No progressive small businessman? No union leader? No public school teacher?

No, let's boost Alison Hartson and Paula Jean Swearengin instead.

I have to agree with you there. Not sure why Menendez gets a pass. People give cops crap about the blue line, but senators do the same.

Gotta wonder why someone like Rush Holt didn't even get a phone call. Menendez is an embarrassment and should've been dumped immediately.

[Gass3268]

To give you an idea of how much of the vote is still out in CA, even with 100% precincts reporting nearly everywhere - there are 188k ballots still to be counted in Orange County.  369k ballots have been counted in Orange County so far.  So that's 1/3 of the total OC vote that will be counted over the coming weeks.

It could even be more than 188K as additional ballots trickle in through Friday.

Right, that number will inch up.  So maybe something like 35% of the vote yet to be counted?  Dang.  Still way too early to examine the total D vs. R numbers in a given district.

Yep, there's still a long way to go. Way too early to analyze and give hot takes on margins, especially since later counted ballots tend to skew D.

But you know the Washington Post had to come in with a hot take of #bluewave dead.