CPRM, Pt 2: AL (RO) 7/17; GA (RO) 7/24; TN 8/2; 274K ballots left in CA

[OneJ]

Baria's barely - but consistently has been - hanging on in MS, but the Mississippi River counties have yet to report virtually anything...

I'm absolutely shocked Baria doesn't have a commanding lead, from an outsider's perspective he seems like the best candidate (and the only one that has even the slimmest chance of winning in a massive wave)

Sherman was the only one I've seen actually putting ads on tv that have played over and over agiain, tbf.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION - AL:

Governor
Republican Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Kay Ivey*
79,342   54.1%   
Tommy Battle
43,918   29.9   
Scott Dawson
18,936   12.9   
Bill Hightower
3,647   2.5   
Michael McAllister
807   0.6   
146,650 votes, 27% reporting (579 of 2,169 precincts)

[136or142]

WULFRIC PROJECTION - AL:

Governor
Republican Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Kay Ivey*
79,342   54.1%   
Tommy Battle
43,918   29.9   
Scott Dawson
18,936   12.9   
Bill Hightower
3,647   2.5   
Michael McAllister
807   0.6   
146,650 votes, 27% reporting (579 of 2,169 precincts)

It's not likely, but Ivey could drop below 50%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION - AL:

Governor
Republican Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Kay Ivey*
79,342   54.1%   
Tommy Battle
43,918   29.9   
Scott Dawson
18,936   12.9   
Bill Hightower
3,647   2.5   
Michael McAllister
807   0.6   
146,650 votes, 27% reporting (579 of 2,169 precincts)

It's not likely, but Ivey could drop below 50%

It is my determination that what we have is a good sample of the result, probably even underestimates Ivey slightly.


---------------

WULFRIC PROJECTION - AL:

Treasurer
Republican Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
John McMillan
58,557   60.5%   
David Black
20,805   21.5   
Stephen Evans
17,395   18.0   
96,757 votes, 23% reporting (490 of 2,169 precincts)

[136or142]

Baria's barely - but consistently has been - hanging on in MS, but the Mississippi River counties have yet to report virtually anything...

I'm absolutely shocked Baria doesn't have a commanding lead, from an outsider's perspective he seems like the best candidate (and the only one that has even the slimmest chance of winning in a massive wave)

Sherman was the only one I've seen actually putting ads on tv that have played over and over agiain, tbf.

Mississippi is the state where the anonymous truck driver won the Democratic nomination for Governor in 2015.

[136or142]

Polls are about to close in Iowa and Montana.

What's the holdup in South Dakota?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION - NM:

Lieutenant Governor
Democratic Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Howie Morales
9,296   50.2%   
Billy Garrett
5,390   29.1   
Rick Miera
3,829   20.7   
18,515 votes, 12% reporting (184 of 1,492 precincts)

[Gass3268]

NJ-11 is one to watch. DeNeufville is doing better than I'd expected in Morris; he could possibly pull it off and would essentially triage the race, IMO.

GOP has essentially already triage NJ-02, correct?

[136or142]

Results already coming in in Montana.  Not the results I would have expected so far.

[MT Treasurer]

Russ Fagg doing much better than I thought he would do in Yellowstone County. He’s from there and well-known in the Billings area, but this is exactly the margin he needs to stay competitive.

[Badger]

Well, we have our first runoff locked in:

Alabama Lt. Gov.
Republican Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Twinkle Cavanaugh
30,645   43.9%   
Will Ainsworth
27,900   40.0   
Rusty Glover
11,239   16.1   
69,784 votes, 14% reporting (296 of 2,169 precincts)

With 14% of the vote in you call it locked in?

You are probably, as in at least 51%, right, but this shows exactly why your predictions are more a half-assed guess than anything

[LimoLiberal]

NJ-11 is one to watch. DeNeufville is doing better than I'd expected in Morris; he could possibly pull it off and would essentially triage the race, IMO.

I thought that too, but he's in third place in Passaic county where 70% of the vote is out. Doubt he can win with Ghee and him splitting the remaining not Webber vote.

[IceSpear]

Russ Fagg doing much better than I thought he would do in Yellowstone County. He’s from there and well-known in the Billings area, but this is exactly the margin he needs to stay competitive.

Having "Rosen" in his name was what sealed the deal. He's going to get Fagged.

[henster]

So what is the deal with Russ 'Bundle of Sticks' did Tester want him as the opponent?

[136or142]

Walt Maddox now below 50%.

[Badger]

WULFRIC PROJECTION - AL:

Governor
Republican Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Kay Ivey*
79,342   54.1%   
Tommy Battle
43,918   29.9   
Scott Dawson
18,936   12.9   
Bill Hightower
3,647   2.5   
Michael McAllister
807   0.6   
146,650 votes, 27% reporting (579 of 2,169 precincts)

It's not likely, but Ivey could drop below 50%

It is my determination that what we have is a good sample of the result, probably even underestimates Ivey slightly.


---------------

WULFRIC PROJECTION - AL:

Treasurer
Republican Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
John McMillan
58,557   60.5%   
David Black
20,805   21.5   
Stephen Evans
17,395   18.0   
96,757 votes, 23% reporting (490 of 2,169 precincts)

"Determination" based on what? More gut feelings?

[IceSpear]

In other news, Andrew was off by ~40 points in his NJ-02 prediction.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION - AL:

U.S. House District 4
Democratic Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Lee Auman
4,383   59.6%   
Rick Neighbors
2,968   40.4   
7,351 votes, 38% reporting (164 of 427 precincts)

@Badger: If you want sluggish, absolutely-every-check applied projections, then use NYT.  My projections are based on sophisticated analysis of county and district/statewide results, and have been correct on all but 3 occasions over the course of 2016, 2017, and 2018.

[136or142]

Russ Fagg doing much better than I thought he would do in Yellowstone County. He’s from there and well-known in the Billings area, but this is exactly the margin he needs to stay competitive.

Having "Rosen" in his name was what sealed the deal. He's going to get Fagged.

LMAO.

Has he ever been a hair stylist?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Watching the results roll in on the big screen... I love election nights.

[136or142]

Results from Iowa now resulting.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

WULFRIC PROJECTION - AL:

U.S. House District 4
Democratic Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Lee Auman
4,383   59.6%   
Rick Neighbors
2,968   40.4   
7,351 votes, 38% reporting (164 of 427 precincts)

@Badger: If you want sluggish, absolutely-every-check applied projections, then use NYT.  My projections are based on sophisticated analysis of county and district/statewide results, and have been correct on all but 3 occasions over the course of 2016, 2017, and 2018.

There were the 2 recent cases with WV-03 and PA-05. What was the 3rd?

[henster]

Another blow for Our Revolution in Iowa.

[IceSpear]

Nate Boulton won the early vote in Lee County, lol.

[MT Treasurer]

But again, before a certain user calls this for Fagg and Heenan with like 5% of the vote in, it’s worth remembering that they’re both from Billings (which is the county from which virtually all of the reported vote so far has come in).