Predict the Democrat seat pickup

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Right now, I am going to be bold and say Dems +50. These swings are foreshadowing a pretty bulky pickup for the Democratic Party.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'll stick with my earlier prediction of 42 for now, but I think this is more likely to go up than down as we get closer to November.

[Xing]

I'm going to guess 35-40 for now, but I could see it being more.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Most likely high 30s, but there is an unusual amount of tail risk for the Republicans this year.

[Politician]

AZ-02, CA-10, CA-21, CA-25, CA-39, CA-45, CA-48, CA-49, CO-03, CO-06, FL-15, FL-18, FL-26, FL-27, GA-06, IL-06, IL-12, IA-01, IA-03, KS-02, KS-03, KY-06, ME-02, MI-08, MI-11, MN-02, MN-03, MT-AL, NE-02, NJ-02, NJ-03, NJ-07, NJ-11, NM-02, NY-19, NY-22, NC-13, OH-01, OH-12, PA-01, PA-05, PA-06, PA-07, PA-17, SC-05, TX-07, TX-23, TX-32, UT-04, VA-02, VA-07, VA-10, WA-05, WA-08, WI-01, WV-03.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

High thirties right now, but I would not be surprised if it went over 40. Not gonna make individual seat predictions anymore lol

[Tartarus Sauce]

At least 50, very likely more than that.

[Thank you for being a friend...]

The firing of the priest this week sounds like the kind of dumbass, tone-deaf thing a party would do when they're in their last days.  I think even some of the Republicans know this is going to a brutal election.  They have had complete control of the federal government and all they have done is pass a trillion dollar deficit tax sham which raises taxes on lots of people to an intolerable amount (hence why a lot of suburban Republicans did not vote for it).

Paul Ryan is nothing but a Social Darwinist with a sh**t-eating grin.  He's history, and so is the Republicans' eight year stranglehold on the House.

Donald Trump - that dopey bombastic blowhard - is the perfect cartoon to energize a livid and eager-to-vote Democratic base. 

[Lachi]

My current range is 35-65. That'd put my mid range prediction at 50, but I think it'll be somewhere in the 40s currently.

[here2view]

35. I could see up to 50 though.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

70+. Mueller will be dropping some serious bombs before election day, which will only makes things worse for the GOP.

[KingSweden]

High thirties right now, but I would not be surprised if it went over 40. Not gonna make individual seat predictions anymore lol

[junior chįmp]

70+

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

70+

I knew you were the other person who voted 70+ in the poll.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Between 30-40.

[Blackacre]

Who are the 3 people who said "lose seats"? lol

[TarHeelDem]

I think I'll go with 45 for now. We are in the midst of very, very historically unique circumstances here. The blue wave could easily turn into a blue tsunami. Don't discount it.

[Thunder98]

40 seat at minimum and 60 seats at most. So 50+ overall

[emcee0]

Who are the 3 people who said "lose seats"? lol

The ghost of King Lear?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Who are the 3 people who said "lose seats"? lol

The ghost of King Lear?

The ghosts of King Lear past, present, and future.

[Skill and Chance]

40ish

[Mycool]

My bet would be mid-high 30s. However, this is eerily similar to when 538 said that there was an abnormally large tail in 2016 (Trump winning the electoral college and losing the popular vote), though this time with a Dem tsunami where 50+ seats get picked up, and dummymanders like in NC and MI backfire.

[Tartarus Sauce]

My bet would be mid-high 30s. However, this is eerily similar to when 538 said that there was an abnormally large tail in 2016 (Trump winning the electoral college and losing the popular vote), though this time with a Dem tsunami where 50+ seats get picked up, and dummymanders like in NC and MI backfire.

If a really massive wave hit, Texas gerrymandering would probably backfire the worst for Republicans. They cracked the ever loving hell out of the major metropolitan areas, especially Austin. Suits their purposes just fine under the vast majority of scenarios, but having a bunch of cracked districts between the R+7-R+10 range starts looking dicey if Democrats were to win the PV margin close to the rate they've been swinging the specials on average.

This is of course very much tail-end risk, but such risk has already been demonstrated in the special elections swings. Such tail-end risk for Republicans is nasty enough to constitute comfortably cracked Austin metro seats with incumbents being potentially vulnerable.

[tallguy23]

Conservative guess: 35-40

Balls to the wall guess: 60+

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Roll call says 33 average and I'm sticking to that McRogers and King go down in addition to Paul Ryan's seat. That's how many that a 5-8 seat gubernatorial prediction will get the Dems