Rate KS-03

[Greedo punched first]

Rate KS-03, a Clinton-Republican held district.

[Rhenna]

Lean D

[Maxwell]

Toss-up, Tilt D

[LimoLiberal]

Lean R. Kevin Yoder seems like a good fit for his district, and it wasn't that pro-Hillary. But we'll have to see how the primary, etc. shakes up here.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Tossup, nearly lean D

[Badger]

Tossup, nearly lean D

[morgieb]

Tossup for now as Yoder seems a solid candidate and it only narrowly voted Hillary. But unlike most of these Romney/Clinton seats, this one actually had a Democratic Congressman for a number of years in the not too distant past, and also the Dems actually led one of the polls here....

[Greedo punched first]

Tossup for now as Yoder seems a solid candidate and it only narrowly voted Hillary. But unlike most of these Romney/Clinton seats, this one actually had a Democratic Congressman for a number of years in the not too distant past, and also the Dems actually led one of the polls here....

Dennis Moore Represented the district. A Democrat could win KS-03. Kansas has trended Democratic lately with Brownback being unpopular.

[Mycool]

Between Brownback, Trump, and this district’s recent trends, I would say Tilt D at this point. If it were an open seat, I’d be more likely to say Lean D. I do think this and VA-10 have an above average likelihood of being flips.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

It's a very white district, so it'll probably trend D from 2016 because the shifts from 2016 have come almost exclusively from white people.

[tmthforu94]

Lean D. Kevin Yoder seems like a good fit for his district, and it wasn't that pro-Hillary. But we'll have to see how the primary, etc. shakes up here.

I fixed it.

You are such a hack.


I'd rate it a toss-up, with the slight edge to Yoder. The district isn't favorable to Trump and I don't think Yoder has ever been that popular - Sidie was a very weak candidate and still came somewhat close in 2016. Sharice Davids and Tom Niermann are both stronger candidates but the primary has the chance to be divisive, which can weaken Democrats leading into the general. I just hope Brent Welder doesn't win - he has some nice endorsements, including Jason Kander (he is originally from Overland Park) and Andrea Ramsey, who was the frontrunner before alleged sexual harassment allegations. IMO he is a loser and too liberal for the district, but he seems to be doing OK thus far in fundraising and ground game. 

[windjammer]

Toss up for now

[District101]

Lean R. Yoder is a strong candidate, and none of the Democrats impress me that much.

[wesmoorenerd]

Any thoughts on the Dem primary here? I'm really pulling for Davids, but it's looking like Welder is in the best spot for the nomination.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Dems do exceed expectations and Laura Kelly becomes governor, my hat is off to her and the Dems winning seats here.

[Peanut]

Tilt D.

[136or142]

Junior varsity to MS-13.

[KingSweden]

I think Niermann wins, posssssssibly Davids

[VPH]

Can't rate it until we get through next Tuesday night.

If Davids, or Niermann: Tossup

If Williams: Tilt Republican

If Welder: Lean Republican

If Sidie or McCamon: Likely Republican

[ON Progressive]

New, independent poll shows Welder with a substantial lead in the Democratic Primary.

Welder - 35%
Davids - 21%
Niermann - 15%
The others (Williams, McCamon, Sidie): 12%
Undecided: 17%

Tossup/Tilt R -> Tossup/Tilt DSA

You mean Tossup > Likely R.

And no, this has nothing to do with Welder being left. Welder is from Missouri and has practically zero connections to the area. We are not going to win this district with a carpetbagger from another state.

[Coldstream]

Lean D. But I think the Dems will do better in KS-02 (whilst still winning both).

[😥]

Tilt D/Lean D

[Chief Justice Keef]

New, independent poll shows Welder with a substantial lead in the Democratic Primary.

Welder - 35%
Davids - 21%
Niermann - 15%
The others (Williams, McCamon, Sidie): 12%
Undecided: 17%

Tossup/Tilt R -> Tossup/Tilt DSA

You mean Tossup > Likely R.

And no, this has nothing to do with Welder being left. Welder is from Missouri and has practically zero connections to the area. We are not going to win this district with a carpetbagger from another state.

Carpetbagging has been an issue with many Democratic candidates this cycle (Ann Kirkpatrick being an egregeous example) but it hasn't really brought anyone down yet. I don't expect the same to happen to Welder.

[Classic Conservative]

New, independent poll shows Welder with a substantial lead in the Democratic Primary.

Welder - 35%
Davids - 21%
Niermann - 15%
The others (Williams, McCamon, Sidie): 12%
Undecided: 17%

Tossup/Tilt R -> Tossup/Tilt DSA

You mean Tossup > Likely R.

And no, this has nothing to do with Welder being left. Welder is from Missouri and has practically zero connections to the area. We are not going to win this district with a carpetbagger from another state.

Carpetbagging has been an issue with many Democratic candidates this cycle (Ann Kirkpatrick being an egregeous example) but it hasn't really brought anyone down yet. I don't expect the same to happen to Welder.

Jon Ossoff?

[Chief Justice Keef]

New, independent poll shows Welder with a substantial lead in the Democratic Primary.

Welder - 35%
Davids - 21%
Niermann - 15%
The others (Williams, McCamon, Sidie): 12%
Undecided: 17%

Tossup/Tilt R -> Tossup/Tilt DSA

You mean Tossup > Likely R.

And no, this has nothing to do with Welder being left. Welder is from Missouri and has practically zero connections to the area. We are not going to win this district with a carpetbagger from another state.

Carpetbagging has been an issue with many Democratic candidates this cycle (Ann Kirkpatrick being an egregeous example) but it hasn't really brought anyone down yet. I don't expect the same to happen to Welder.

Jon Ossoff?

A multitude of factors contributed to Ossoff's loss, and living outside the district in my opinion was not one of them.