Vice, Virtue, and Independence (A Different Path, Chapter 2)

[MillennialModerate]

That LeMay wasn’t in a jail cell.

OK so this is fun because I don't actually know what the procedure would be for punishing LeMay for that, simply because it's never happened IRL. Indicting him for murdering the Vietnamese? Violating the Geneva Conventions? If anyone can clear this up for me I'd love to lock LeMay up for the rest of this TL.

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He doesn't have Chappaquiddick ITTL, but he does have an affair with Mary Jo, oops. That doesn't play well. Also Muskie and him struggled to differentiate themselves from each other. Muskie successfully paints Teddy as a privileged playboy and since he actually is a privileged playboy it hurts his campaign

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Normally he would be the one to benefit from Kennedy's downfall if not for Kennedy and the Union-Leader smearing his wife and causing the same crying fiasco as IRL. Additionally, he doesn't have the boost of having been a former VP nominee like IRL (something to keep in mind). Humphrey benefits from Kennedy's downfall too, plus he's got more experience, a great civil rights record, and almost total support from unions and the traditional establishment. Not really sure who Muskie's base is who's not also in Humphrey's base.

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Somewhat, yes, and a divided opposition (Lindsay to the left, Ashbrook to the right)

On the Teddy thing, yes he was a playboy but so weren’t all the Kennedy boys. But they all put their country first, they all loved America and they all held positions generally believed by most Americans - they were the one family that didn’t get critisized for nepotism. There was almost always an appetite for the next in line - Chappiquidick was literally the exception to the rule. Without that you surely see Teddy win POTUS IRL.

As for Muskie, I don’t think he needs the boost of being a former VP nominee - but being attacked from the Kennedy machine is likely a fatal blow when competing against a strong foe like Humphrey

And LeMay surely could be charged with executing an action on behalf of the United States without having the authority to do so. He was not next in line in the chain of command.

[Cold War Liberal]

That LeMay wasn’t in a jail cell.

OK so this is fun because I don't actually know what the procedure would be for punishing LeMay for that, simply because it's never happened IRL. Indicting him for murdering the Vietnamese? Violating the Geneva Conventions? If anyone can clear this up for me I'd love to lock LeMay up for the rest of this TL.

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He doesn't have Chappaquiddick ITTL, but he does have an affair with Mary Jo, oops. That doesn't play well. Also Muskie and him struggled to differentiate themselves from each other. Muskie successfully paints Teddy as a privileged playboy and since he actually is a privileged playboy it hurts his campaign

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Normally he would be the one to benefit from Kennedy's downfall if not for Kennedy and the Union-Leader smearing his wife and causing the same crying fiasco as IRL. Additionally, he doesn't have the boost of having been a former VP nominee like IRL (something to keep in mind). Humphrey benefits from Kennedy's downfall too, plus he's got more experience, a great civil rights record, and almost total support from unions and the traditional establishment. Not really sure who Muskie's base is who's not also in Humphrey's base.

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Somewhat, yes, and a divided opposition (Lindsay to the left, Ashbrook to the right)

On the Teddy thing, yes he was a playboy but so weren’t all the Kennedy boys. But they all put their country first, they all loved America and they all held positions generally believed by most Americans - they were the one family that didn’t get critisized for nepotism. There was almost always an appetite for the next in line - Chappiquidick was literally the exception to the rule. Without that you surely see Teddy win POTUS IRL.

As for Muskie, I don’t think he needs the boost of being a former VP nominee - but being attacked from the Kennedy machine is likely a fatal blow when competing against a strong foe like Humphrey

And LeMay surely could be charged with executing an action on behalf of the United States without having the authority to do so. He was not next in line in the chain of command.

Much of the desire for an RFK candidacy in 1968 was due to the nostalgia for the idealized JFK years, enshrined in the American conscious as idyllic due to it being cut short by a horrible assassination. This, plus a similar mysticism that popped up around Bobby after his extremely premature demise at the hand of an assassin in '68 led to a push for Teddy in '72, which was cut short by the Chappaquiddick incident OTL. Without the Kennedy assassination in '63, and even with the rather successful two-term JFK administration in this timeline, I seriously doubt there is as much of a push for a Kennedy candidacy in TTL's 1972, especially not from Teddy. Ted's high poll numbers were built less on substance and more on name recognition; when attacked, on the extramarital affair after the accident (Mary Jo just didn't die, but the candidate for president still had a car accident, likely under the influence of alcohol), on the accident itself, or on policy, the only positive differentiator Kennedy had was his last name. And so the collapse.

Still, like you said, the Kennedy machine is still formidable enough to take Muskie down several notches, even as the candidate it attempted (unsuccessfully) to save collapses. The less powerful Humphrey machine may just finish the job, but that's for a later chapter.

I think the Logan Act could do LeMay in; I'll write that into the next update.

EDIT: Actually no, I talked to the professor who runs the political science division at my college and she said it's unlikely that LeMay, genuinely believing to be acting in the interest of national security, did anything illegal, though there's no precedent. She also said that he was almost certain to be impeached, which I already detailed ITTL. Also, the Logan Act wouldn't apply because LeMay was authorized to carry out nuclear strikes under DoD continuity of government plans put into place under Eisenhower. So LeMay is stripped of his position (as I already detailed), but probably didn't commit a crime(!)

[Cold War Liberal]

May 2 - May 23, 1972
May Primaries

Senator McGovern, architect of the primary system, was having little success using it

George McGovern had been planning his 1972 run for President since his 1968 bid failed at the Chicago convention. He’d made moves like opposing the declaration of war on North Vietnam, vocally attacking Goldwater’s cabinet and judicial nominees, and influencing the national debate on the concept of war itself by introducing a Constitutional Amendment which informally bore his name. He called for the government to ensure the rights of all Americans, not only for black people and women, but even for groups no one else was talking about, like gay people. Housing rights, universal health insurance, a drastic cut to the defense budget, even a guaranteed minimum income: no one out-liberaled George McGovern. Unfortunately for him, this allowed for him to be slapped with the label of “radical;” while no one doubted that any one of the major candidates for the nomination would easily beat Goldwater, McGovern was seen as the weakest. Many feared that President McGovern would be the Democrat’s Goldwater: win big one year against an unpopular opponent, then go down hard when reelection came around. McGovern had a fervent base (not unlike Goldwater), but they never seemed to be enough to win large primaries.

Hubert Humphrey was not the kind of fresh blood many had in mind when they originally started thinking about the party’s nominee in ‘72. And yet Humphrey retained enough of the passion he’d used to get a civil rights plank passed at the 1948 DNC, and hired enough political talent, particularly through Gary Hart, that he was surprisingly good at getting delegates, both behind closed doors and in primaries. Humphrey became the beneficiary of the Muskie-Kennedy war; he was much closer to the two of them than McGovern or Carter, so, naturally, that’s where the bulk of the Northeastern Senators’ supporters went. Sure, Muskie hadn’t dropped out yet, but his campaign hadn’t won a state in a political eternity and had very little momentum. The Maine Democrat was hemorrhaging support very quickly. Humphrey had the benefit of being seen as being in favor of “the little guy” without being labeled a radical. HHH advocated for what McGovern would advocate for, if McGovern was a pragmatist: civil rights was at the forefront, while his plans for expanding Medicare, taking action to end the Vietnam War, and fighting poverty being more realistic than McGovern’s. Humphrey was the candidate almost no one was excited for, but almost everyone could get behind, if they had to.

Jimmy Carter’s campaign was faring far better than most predicted. After Wallace’s crippling defeat in 1968, many Southern Democrats were trying to find someone less polarizing to be their standard-bearer, and devout, inoffensive Senator Carter was the perfect candidate to bring the South out of Wallace’s shadow. He didn’t dog whistle, bully, or make brash statements, but he didn’t push too hard for civil rights, nor did he campaign in favor of sweeping upgrades to the social safety net either. He was a moderate, and that was all. He had come farther than the Southern wing could have hoped, and was looking to become a power broker at the convention. Whether or not he would be able to hold that role remained to be seen.

Carter dominated in both the Tennessee and North Carolina primaries in early May. In Nebraska, McGovern won, most likely due to his being from a neighboring state. Hubert Humphrey won convincingly in West Virginia, a state Carter had a shot in. The Georgia Senator came back and edged out Humphrey in the Maryland primary, which all three candidates had a shot in, and also won the Utah caucus, likely due to Mormon suspicion of McGovern’s “radicalism.” Humphrey easily won Michigan, while McGovern won the Colorado caucus, and Oregon a few days later. Humphrey upset McGovern in Rhode Island. The three Senators now shifted their attention on the last few primaries, including delegate-heavy California and New York.

After a string of losses and dwindling poll numbers, Maine Senator Edmund Muskie dropped out of the race following the Maryland and Michigan primaries on May 16. He threw his support behind Hubert Humphrey, decrying McGovern as too extreme and Carter as too moderate. Patsy Mink also dropped out, after losing the Oregon primary.

Now there were officially only three major candidates in the race.

Mayor Lindsay and Senator Ashbrook threw President Goldwater off his rhythm

There were still three candidates in the Republican race, too. The President was slipping a little, especially after the Davis Affair, and Lindsay faltered a bit, while John Ashbrook rose in the polls. It showed on May 4, when Ashbrook upset President Goldwater in the Tennessee primary. Goldwater was not popular in Tennessee after the private company which bought the TVA from the US Government had to lay off a large number of their employees in late 1971; however, Lindsay was seen as too liberal for the state. Fortunately for Tennessee GOPers, there was a “clean conservative” in the race. Ashbrook’s win in Tennessee was almost as much of a blow to Goldwater as Lindsay’s victory of New Hampshire, and forced the President to take the Ohio Senator seriously, rather than just ignore him, which had been his strategy up until that point. Fortunately for Goldwater, he crushed Ashbrook in North Carolina, but three days later Ashbrook rained on Goldwater’s parade by narrowly carrying Nebraska, where Goldwater’s ending of the farm subsidies was immensely unpopular. Ashbrook was officially a major nuisance to the President’s bid for renomination.

A week later, Goldwater won the Michigan primary by a solid margin, but conservative vote splitting and the endorsement of moderate Gov. Charles Matthias gave John Lindsay a narrow victory in Maryland. Goldwater knew he’s lose the Rhode Island primary (he was right; Lindsay won in a landslide) but thought he’d have a chance in Oregon, so the President headed out to the West Coast and campaigned in Oregon before moving south and trekking all across California looking for votes with his popular outgoing Vice President, Ronald Reagan. His campaign picked up even more speed when he lost Oregon by 5 points to John Lindsay; Goldwater needed a victory in California in order to enter the convention - to be held in San Diego - with the momentum necessary to lock up the nomination on the first ballot. Goldwater was doing the back-door dealing needed to win the support of unpledged delegates (of which there were more in the Republican party than in the Democratic party), with only mixed success. Privately, the President was terrified of a contested convention. Publicly, however, he remained cool.

How long that could last, Goldwater had no idea.

Democratic Primaries and Caucuses
As of May 24, 1972

Hubert H. Humphrey: ~18% of delegates
George S. McGovern: ~9% of delegates
James E. Carter: ~8% of delegates
Edmund S. Muskie: ~8% of delegates
Edward M. Kennedy: ~3% of delegates
Henry M. Jackson: >~1% of delegates
Others: ~2% of delegates
Republican Primaries
As of May 24, 1972

Barry M. Goldwater: ~20% of delegates
John V. Lindsay: ~11% of delegates
John M. Ashbrook: ~7% of delegates
May 2 - May 23, 1972
Other Headlines
J. Edgar Hoover Dead!!!
38 States Ratified Vice Pres. Amendment So Far
25 States Ratified ERA So Far
Vice Pres. Amendment Becomes 26th Amendment!
Okinawa Returned to Japan
Mark Felt Confirmed as FBI Director
Opinion: Campaign Distracting Pres. From Foreign Policy
Gallup Poll
May 23, 1972
President Goldwater Approval Rating
Disapprove: 68%
Approve: 30%
Not sure: 2%
Didn’t answer: 0%
Do you support American involvement in the Vietnam War?
No: 70%
Yes: 29%
Not sure: 1%
Didn’t answer: 0%
Who do you support for the Democratic nomination in 1972?
(Democrats only)
Hubert Humphrey: 38%
George McGovern: 24%
Jimmy Carter: 21%
Shirley Chisholm: 3%
Wilbur Mills: 1%
Patsy Mink: 0%
Edmund Muskie: 0%
Roland Renne: 0%
Sam Yorty: 0%
Terry Sanford: 0%
Henry Jackson: 0%
Ted Kennedy: 0%
Someone else: 1%
Not sure: 11%
Didn’t answer: 1%
Who do you support for the Republican nomination in 1972?
(Republicans only)
Barry Goldwater: 47%
John Lindsay: 25%
John Ashbrook: 18%
Someone else: 4%
Not sure: 5%
Didn’t answer: 1%
Should the Equal Rights Amendment be ratified?
Yes: 70%
No: 23%
Not sure: 5%
Didn’t answer: 2%
Who would you support if the 1972 Presidential election was held today?
Democrats: 47%
President Barry Goldwater: 27%
Other: 4%
Not sure: 21%
Didn’t answer: 1%
Who would you support if the 1972 congressional elections were held today?
Democrats: 53%
Republicans: 34%
Other: 1%
Not sure: 11%
Didn’t answer: 1%

[MillennialModerate]

Ugh not good odds for a return to Camelot in 76 if things stay the same

[Mr. Smith]

Huh, looks like it all comes down to California.

While Goldilocks is likely to win that one on the GOP side, it could get messy for Dems. Does McGovern get enough angry young people?  Does Humphrey get the minorities he needs?  Does Carter actually profit off the differences?  Or does it go nowhere until The People's Temple rigs the results up in Mendocino?

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Caught up on this and Chapter 1 over the last few days. It’s a very compelling read.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

It seems more likely that Lindsay could have picked up Pennsylvania--the source of a good number of moderate to liberal Republicans until relatively recently--whereas Illinois at the time, like Wisconsin and Indiana, had a substantial number of conservatives (or at least more than Pennsylvania).

[NewYorkExpress]

It seems more likely that Lindsay could have picked up Pennsylvania--the source of a good number of moderate to liberal Republicans until relatively recently--whereas Illinois at the time, like Wisconsin and Indiana, had a substantial number of conservatives (or at least more than Pennsylvania).

It sounds to me like Ashbrook held down Goldwater's numbers in Illinois.

[Cold War Liberal]

May 24 - July 9, 1972
From California to Conventions

Barry M. Goldwater: ~26% of delegates
John V. Lindsay: ~12% of delegates
John M. Ashbrook: ~9% of delegates
May 24 - July 9, 1972
Other Headlines
27 States Ratified ERA So Far
Angela Davis Verdict: Not Guilty
Deadly Hurricane Agnes Slams East Coast
Walter Reuther Praises Democrats for Likely Humphrey Nomination
Goldwater Leaves Open Possibility of Troop Surge in Vietnam
Furman v. Georgia: Death Penalty is Unconstitutional!
With Border Skirmishes, Tensions Rise Between USSR, China
Gallup Poll
July 10, 1972
President Goldwater Approval Rating
Disapprove: 66%
Approve: 32%
Not sure: 2%
Didn’t answer: 0%
Do you support American involvement in the Vietnam War?
No: 72%
Yes: 27%
Not sure: 1%
Didn’t answer: 0%
Who do you support for the Democratic nomination in 1972?
(Democrats only)
Hubert Humphrey: 43%
George McGovern: 23%
Jimmy Carter: 20%
Shirley Chisholm: 2%
Wilbur Mills: 1%
Patsy Mink: 0%
Edmund Muskie: 0%
Roland Renne: 0%
Sam Yorty: 0%
Terry Sanford: 0%
Henry Jackson: 0%
Ted Kennedy: 0%
Someone else: 1%
Not sure: 9%
Didn’t answer: 1%
Who do you support for the Republican nomination in 1972?
(Republicans only)
Barry Goldwater: 45%
John Lindsay: 27%
John Ashbrook: 20%
Someone else: 3%
Not sure: 4%
Didn’t answer: 1%
Should the Equal Rights Amendment be ratified?
Yes: 73%
No: 21%
Not sure: 5%
Didn’t answer: 1%
Who would you support if the 1972 Presidential election was held today?
Democrats: 48%
President Barry Goldwater/Senator Hiram Fong: 25%
Other: 8%
Not sure: 18%
Didn’t answer: 1%
Who would you support if the 1972 congressional elections were held today?
Democrats: 54%
Republicans: 35%
Other: 1%
Not sure: 10%
Didn’t answer: 0%

[Cold War Liberal]

July 10 - July 13, 1972
Democratic National Convention

Senator Carter holds a rally shortly before the 1972 DNC, held at the Miami Beach Convention Center

Conventional wisdom going into the Democratic convention in Miami was that Hubert Humphrey hadn’t quite secured a majority of the delegates himself, but if the delegates pledged to Edmund Muskie and Ted Kennedy voted for him, he would have just enough to be made the nominee. Conventional wisdom was, in this case, more accurate than it sometimes is.

The first fight of the convention wasn’t much of a fight at all: the platform. The process of outlining what the Democrats believed was not actually all that hard in 1972. Most of the candidates more or less agreed on the big issues: civil rights should be advanced, the war in Vietnam must be ended and America’s global image repaired, the economy must be reinvigorated. The minor details were where disagreements showed, and in those cases, vague platitudes were sufficient. Still, the platform was one of the most liberal such documents since Franklin Roosevelt.

Speaker Albert addresses the convention

The Democratic party wanted none of the division and chaos of the 1968 convention in 1972. So, they put on a made-for-television event without the damaging discord of the Chicago convention. Unity was a major theme, both in party and in country; both progressives and conservatives were given speaking slots, though their speeches were heavily screened by the Democratic National Committee to make sure they were not going to cause problems. All of the speeches went over well, and there was virtually none of the commotion of four years prior at any point in the convention. Miami went over much better than Chicago.

Senator Kennedy urges his delegates to vote for Humphrey

The next day was when the candidates attempted to win the support of the unpledged delegates from states that either only held “beauty pageant” primaries, or which did not hold primaries at all. McGovern shored up his support in the West and attempted to win support in big cities, to little avail (unions were solidly behind Humphrey). Carter tightened his grip on the South in an attempt to secure the Vice Presidential nomination should Humphrey be nominated. And Humphrey schmoozed with Muskie and Kennedy delegates, with the help of the Senators themselves. It all led up to the first ballot, after which the Democratic establishment breathed a sigh of relief.

First Ballot, Democratic National Convention, 1972
(3,014 = total, 1,508 = majority)

Hubert H. Humphrey: 1,856
James E. Carter: 647
George S. McGovern: 242
Shirley Chisholm: 205
All other candidates: 64

McGovern had been crushed, only slightly edging out Shirley Chisholm, who had gotten a smattering of delegates from across the country, while Jimmy Carter outperformed expectations. On the other hand, Humphrey had turned his shaky delegate lead into a solid victory. Now, it was time to pick a running mate. Humphrey had little time, but he’d given a lot of thought to it before the convention. The man he chose was intended to indicate that while a President Humphrey would not support the Vietnam War, he was not a radical dove. The Democrats’ pick for VP? Senator Henry M. “Scoop” Jackson of Washington.

Democratic Vice Presidential nominee Scoop Jackson accepting the nomination

Jackson was easily nominated for the nation’s second highest office. While McGovern supporters objected to his rather hawkish positions on foreign policy, they liked Jackson’s strong liberal credentials on domestic policy, and were willing to look past the Humphrey/Jackson ticket’s flaws to defeat Goldwater. While there was some dissent in the Democratic ranks, most of the party was unified behind Humphrey (even if they weren’t excited about it) and were overjoyed at the likelihood of the Goldwater Era coming to an end as abrupt as its beginning.

Senator Walter Mondale (DFL-MN) introduces his fellow Minnesota Senator, Hubert Humphrey

“24 years ago, I stood behind a podium like this and said that America needs to ‘get out of the shadow of states' rights and walk forthrightly into the bright sunshine of human rights.’ Well, fellow Democrats, it is time for us to truly realize this ideal. This November, we will start the process of turning away from the likes of Goldwater and Wallace, and we will look towards a bright American future, where the ideals of our forefathers are realized, poverty is eliminated, and all Americans enjoy the full freedoms and rights that they are entitled to…”

[Mr. Smith]

You sly dog, I remember wondering where Humphrey was back in Chapter 1.Good payoff.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Humphrey/Jackson, let's go!

[Cold War Liberal]

Gallup Poll
August 1, 1972
President Goldwater Approval Rating
Disapprove: 68%
Approve: 31%
Not sure: 1%
Didn’t answer: 0%
Do you support American involvement in the Vietnam War?
No: 73%
Yes: 25%
Not sure: 2%
Didn’t answer: 0%
Who do you support for the Republican nomination in 1972?
(Republicans only)
Barry Goldwater: 47%
John Lindsay: 28%
John Ashbrook: 21%
Someone else: 2%
Not sure: 2%
Didn’t answer: 0%
Should the Equal Rights Amendment be ratified?
Yes: 75%
No: 20%
Not sure: 4%
Didn’t answer: 1%
Who would you support if the 1972 Presidential election was held today?

Senator Hubert Humphrey/Senator Henry Jackson: 48%, 425 Electoral Votes
President Barry Goldwater/Senator Hiram Fong: 25%, 50 Electoral Votes
Other/wouldn’t vote: 16%, 0 Electoral Votes
Not sure: 10%, 63 Electoral Votes
Didn’t answer: 1%

Senator Hubert Humphrey/Senator Henry Jackson: 44%, 459 Electoral Votes
Mayor John Lindsay: 22%, 48 Electoral Votes
Other/wouldn’t vote: 20%, 0 Electoral Votes
Not sure: 11%, 31 Electoral Votes
Didn’t answer: 3%

Senator Hubert Humphrey/Senator Henry Jackson: 47%, 395 Electoral Votes
Senator John Ashbrook: 23%, 96 Electoral Votes
Other/wouldn’t vote: 16%, 0 Electoral Votes
Not sure: 12%, 47 Electoral Votes
Didn’t answer: 2%
*dark color = solid, regular = likely, light = lean, grey = tossup*
Who would you support if the 1972 congressional elections were held today?
Democrats: 54%
Republicans: 35%
Other: 1%
Not sure: 10%
Didn’t answer: 0%

[NewYorkExpress]

That's insane.

You know Humphery was diagnosed with a cancerous tumor in his bladder in 1974...would that be an issue here?

Also, any clues as to 1976 yet?

I'm rooting for Gerald Ford for the Republicans, honestly, the man needs a break.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Goldwater/Reagan ‘72!!!!

[Cold War Liberal]

This timeline has purposefully never been predictable but I want to note that, according to current polling on Humphrey/Jackson vs. Goldwater/Fong, even if somehow Goldwater comes back to win every state except those marked solid Democratic (including the ones that are every other shade of red!) HHH and Scoop still win with 294 EVs...

Goldwater/Reagan ‘72!!!!

Reagan issued a Shermanesque statement after (or rather, during) his acting presidency so Hiram Fong was chosen as Goldwater's choice for VP (though the ticket hasn't been nominated yet )

Also, any clues as to 1976 yet?

You know Humphery was diagnosed with a cancerous tumor in his bladder in 1974...would that be an issue here?

[MR DARK BRANDON]

That's insane.

You know Humphery was diagnosed with a cancerous tumor in his bladder in 1974...would that be an issue here?

Also, any clues as to 1976 yet?

I'm rooting for Gerald Ford for the Republicans, honestly, the man needs a break.

It’s 1972...

[Neo-Malthusian Misanthrope]

This timeline has purposefully never been predictable but I want to note that, according to current polling on Humphrey/Jackson vs. Goldwater/Fong, even if somehow Goldwater comes back to win every state except those marked solid Democratic (including the ones that are every other shade of red!) HHH and Scoop still win with 294 EVs...

Man, even if Ashbrook somehow won the nomination, and won all the toss-ups, lean Dem states, and Ohio, he'd come up short too. Goldwater sure has damaged the Republican brand, but who would have expected the Democrats to come back from Wallace and LBJ's sh**tshow in '68 so strongly too? Fun stuff as always.

Also, somehow I'd been reading John Ashbrook as John Anderson this whole time and was confused why he was being portrayed as a challenger from Goldwater's right but obviously I was mistaken. What is Anderson up here, anyway? He probably would have done well as a unifying figure for the Republicans ITTL.

[Cold War Liberal]

August 21 - 23, 1972
Republican National Convention

President Goldwater gives his acceptance speech

Goldwater had only barely been renominated, but in the end he had won the battle. He gave an unremarkable acceptance speech, greatly overshadowed by Nixon's speech a few hours earlier. Hiram Fong was officially made the GOP VP nominee, and he also made a very bland speech which excited only the Hawaii delegation.

It was official now: Mr. Conservative limping into the battle against the Happy Warrior.

[Cold War Liberal]

What is Anderson up here, anyway? He probably would have done well as a unifying figure for the Republicans ITTL.

Anderson's career ITTL is generally unchanged from OTL. Still socially liberal and economically conservative and voted accordingly during the Goldwater Administration.

[Cold War Liberal]

August 24 - November 7, 1972
General Election

Hubert Humphrey wasn’t nicknamed the “Happy Warrior” for nothing

Both campaigns hit the ground running after the conventions. The Humphrey/Jackson campaign had energy and optimism, justifying the “Happy” in Humphrey’s nickname. The Goldwater/Fong campaign, on the other hand, was fighting for its life. The mood of the country was solidly in favor of civil rights, government efforts to fight poverty, and, perhaps most of all, an end to the war. The first good polls of the general election showed that.

Gallup Poll
September 1, 1972

Senator Hubert Humphrey/Senator Henry Jackson: 47%, 400 Electoral Votes
President Barry Goldwater/Fmr. Senator Hiram Fong: 33%, 65 Electoral Votes
Others: 1%
Undecided/Tossup: 19%, 73 Electoral Votes

In light of this poll and others, the Humphrey campaign created a strategy. Knowing Humphrey had a lock on northern Democrats, Gary Hart had his candidate reach out to Lindsay (formerly Rockefeller) Republicans to make sure the Democrats won in the north, not just in the Presidential election but in Congress as well. Then, Humphrey took a tour of the Plains and the Mountain West, selling himself as someone who would fight for farmers and other everyday Americans. With the help of Humphrey’s former rival, Senator George McGovern, Humphrey made inroads in the plains, but whether or not he could beat Goldwater rather than just cut down his margins there remained to be seen.

President Goldwater, however, spent much of his time trying to court both Republicans and Democrats in the region in which he was most popular: the South. This “southern strategy” seemed to be working, as even 8 years prior it would have been absurd for a Republican to be tied in Florida while losing the national popular vote by double digits. Goldwater privately resigned himself to defeat, however, as winning the entire South (which he probably couldn't manage to do) wouldn’t be close to enough to beat Humphrey. Instead, he tried to woo Wallace ‘68 voters (without dipping into overt racism) to mixed results. Additionally, Goldwater made a major push to win over Senator Ashbrook’s voters, which seemed to be fairly successful, according to the October poll.

Gallup Poll
October 1, 1972

Senator Hubert Humphrey/Senator Henry Jackson: 50%, 339 Electoral Votes
President Barry Goldwater/Fmr. Senator Hiram Fong: 40%, 117 Electoral Votes
Others: 1%
Undecided/Tossup: 9%, 82 Electoral Votes

The polls heading into October showed that many voters were making up their minds as to who they would vote for, that many Ashbrook voters (except those in the northern plains and Ohio) were “coming home” to Goldwater, and that Goldwater was closing the gap between himself and Humphrey by winning more votes in the South, even as he lost some to Humphrey in the north and west. While particularly anxious Democrats began to panic about a possible come-from-behind victory by Goldwater, those fears were soon to be put to rest by the event which had proven so crucial in shaping public opinion on Goldwater over the years: the war in Vietnam.

By October 1972, American troops in Vietnam had been pushed almost all the way back into Saigon. The South Vietnamese government urged Goldwater to either let them surrender rather than spend more Vietnamese and American lives fighting a futile fight, or to send in a surge of new troops, but Goldwater was reluctant to consider either. His concern rose due to an event that occured in China: Mao Zedong was assassinated on October 2, and his death was blamed on Lin Biao, who fled to the Soviet Union. Mao’s wife, Jiang Qing, took the reigns of power from her husband, and began to run the government of the PRC with the other members of the “Gang of Four.” Goldwater was wary of Jiang, and while he didn’t want to pull out of Vietnam, he didn’t want to send in more troops either and run the risk of a negative Chinese reaction. Jiang was an unknown factor, unpredictable; Goldwater wasn’t going to take any chances.

With this indecision, however, came the end of the Vietnam War. On October 6, American troops were pushed all the way back to Saigon. The Americans stood their ground for several days, but finally, on October 12, Goldwater ordered them to retreat, ordered an evacuation of American troops, diplomats, and citizens from the city, and unofficially surrendered to North Vietnam. The Viet Cong allowed the Americans to leave, then fought the remaining South Vietnamese forces in Saigon. South Vietnam surrendered on October 14 and America officially ceased military operations on October 16. Talks to discuss the future of Vietnam were scheduled for sometime in 1973. Communism was proclaimed the victor in the hugely unpopular conflict, and Goldwater became the first American president to lose a war. Humphrey pounced on this and hounded Goldwater on his spectacular foreign policy disaster for the rest of the campaign.

“We sent two hundred thousand Americans to Vietnam. Over a quarter of them are coming back in bodybags. And now, the war is over, and what did we get out of it? A fully communist Vietnam, an emboldened China, and the signal being sent that nuclear weapons are acceptable to use in a first strike. This is Barry Goldwater’s world. Is this what you want four more years of? Or do you want the future to be safe for the average man, for democracy, and for our children?” -Hubert H. Humphrey at a campaign rally in Kansas City, Missouri, on October 23, 1972

The final days of the campaign were terrible for Goldwater. Any hope at reelection had been dashed by the events in Vietnam. In the final week of the campaign, the President virtually gave up: after a few quick stops in the South, he returned home to Arizona to spend time with his family before his seemingly inevitable defeat. Liberals hated him, moderates loathed him, and conservatives felt betrayed by him; there was no path forward for Goldwater.

Humphrey, on the other hand, only increased his jubilant campaigning during the run up to election day. He went to states no Democrat had tried to win in a generation: Nebraska, Kansas, Idaho, Wyoming. Humphrey’s message of using the government to help the average man resonated among the hurting farmers on the Plains. Humphrey then went down to attempt to lock down the South before spending his last campaign stop in Phoenix, in a personal jab at the man he seemed certain to destroy the next day.

And then, America went out to vote.

President Goldwater’s final campaign stop, in Prescott, Arizona

Senator Humphrey campaigning in Florida in the final week of the campaign

Gallup Poll
November 1, 1972

Senator Hubert Humphrey/Senator Henry Jackson: 58%, 456 Electoral Votes
President Barry Goldwater/Fmr. Senator Hiram Fong: 37%, 18 Electoral Votes
Others: 1%
Undecided/Tossup: 4%, 64 Electoral Votes
August 24 - November 7, 1972
Other Headlines
33 States Ratified ERA So Far
Summer Olympics Held in Munich
“Munich Massacre:” Palestinian Terrorists Kill Israeli Athletes!
Japan, China Normalize Relations
Reps. O'Neill, Begich Disappear, Possible Plane Crash

[Cold War Liberal]

November 7, 1972
6:00 PM

“Good evening. I’m Walter Cronkite, and this is Election Night 1972 on CBS. Over 68 million of our fellow Americans have gone out to vote today, many for the first time: this is the first election where those aged 18 to 20 can vote in national elections. With the unpopularity of President Goldwater, polls suggest it’s shaping up to be a solid win for Senator Humphrey, but as they say, ‘the most accurate poll is the election results.’ Polls have closed in Kentucky and Indiana, where Humphrey leads by sizable margins, but they are both still too early to call. Stay tuned for more results as the night goes on…”

7:00 PM

“Welcome back to CBS’s coverage of election night 1972. It’s 7 PM on the East Coast, and we can make several calls as polls close in more states. Kentucky will go to Hubert Humphrey with around 60% of the vote, while, surprisingly, Indiana will also go to Humphrey by a similar margin. Indiana was expected to go narrowly for Goldwater in the latest poll before the election, so to have Humphrey winning the state by a wide margin this early in the night is probably extremely troubling for the President. Former Republican stronghold Vermont voted Democratic in 1964 before going back to Goldwater in 1968; this year, it flips back to the Democratic column for only the second time in history, and by a large margin too. Humphrey is expected to get around 60% of the vote there as well. Meanwhile, the states of Virginia, South Carolina, and Georgia are too close to call at this time...”

[Cold War Liberal]

November 7, 1972
7:30 PM

“We return to the electoral map tonight with more poll closings and more state calls. The first is that Hubert Humphrey will win the state of Virginia by a margin of 15 points. This spells trouble for President Goldwater, as the South - including the former seat of the Confederacy, Virginia - is where he is most popular. We can also call West Virginia for Hubert Humphrey; his lead in that state is almost 30 points at this hour. Another extremely troubling development for Goldwater: Hubert Humphrey has won Ohio, usually a swing state in close elections, with nearly 65% of the vote. The Carolinas and Georgia are still too close to call, but we can already get an idea where this election is headed. Right now, it’s shaping up to be a Humphrey landslide; the Minnesota Senator has 68 electoral votes to Goldwater’s none. 270 are needed to win the Presidency…”

8:00 PM

“Welcome back to coverage of election night 1972 on CBS. I’m Walter Cronkite. It’s 8 PM on the East Coast and polls have just closed in a large swath of the country. Alabama has gone to Hubert Humphrey. Connecticut’s 8 electoral votes will be cast for Humphrey as well. Delaware also chose Humphrey over the current President. Washington, D.C., where President Goldwater has lived for the past four years, has voted overwhelmingly - by over 85% - to get him out of town. Illinois, where Humphrey’s support has never been in doubt, voted for the Minnesota Senator by over 25 points. All four of Maine’s electoral votes will go to the Senate Majority Whip, as will all ten of Maryland’s. The states of Massachusetts and Rhode Island have also rebuked President Goldwater by a stunningly high margin of around 45% in both states, with Humphrey winning 72% in each state. The Senator from Minnesota has won a landslide in Missouri as well, taking around 65% of the vote there. In New Hampshire and New Jersey, Hubert Humphrey has won, and the story is the same in Pennsylvania, whose hefty 27 electoral votes will be won by the Democratic candidate tonight. The President has not yet won a single state, while his challenger has cracked 200 electoral votes this early in the evening. Wait a minute, we’re getting another call: Georgia, where Goldwater was expected to keep it close, has gone to Hubert Humphrey by eight points. That puts Humphrey at 221 electoral votes, just 49 away from victory at just 8:03 PM…”

8:30 PM

“We have just a few more calls: polls have just closed in Arkansas, which is too early to call, but we can say for certain that Hubert Humphrey has won Tennessee, where President Goldwater was unpopular after his privatization of the TVA went awry. We can also call North Carolina for Humphrey. These two calls bring Humphrey to 244 electoral votes. Goldwater has yet to win a state, and leads in none of the currently too close to call states. It is hypothetically possible that Humphrey will sweep all 50 states, though Goldwater could, of course, win in his home state of Arizona and other states favorable to him, such as Utah, Wyoming, and possibly Idaho. We will find out later, stay tuned…”

[Cold War Liberal]

November 7, 1972
9:00 PM

“Welcome back to election night 1972, we here at CBS can call the winner of this election at this very early hour. We can call that Hubert Humphrey has won Colorado, putting him at 251 electoral votes. Next, we can call Louisiana’s 10 electoral votes for Humphrey, bringing his total to 261 - nine shy of a majority. Perhaps fittingly, the state which will put Hubert Humphrey over the top is his own home state of Minnesota, where he has won 73% of the vote and 10 electoral votes, giving him 271 electoral votes, which is one more than the number needed to be elected the 37th President of the United States. To be perfectly clear, Hubert H. Humphrey has been elected the 37th President of the United States, and Henry M. Jackson has been elected the 40th Vice President of the United States.

“We’re not done with calls, however: the President-elect has also won Michigan, New Mexico, New York, South Dakota, Texas, and Wisconsin. Additionally, we can call Arkansas, Florida, and Mississippi for Humphrey as well. This leaves the President-elect with 408 electoral votes and over 61% of the popular vote to outgoing President Goldwater’s 0 electoral votes and 38% of the popular vote…”

10:00 PM

“...and now we can call Iowa, Montana, and Nevada for Humphrey. Additionally, we can finally call South Carolina for the President-elect. Oh, and two other calls: North Dakota and Kansas have both gone to Humphrey, probably due to President Goldwater's controversial policy ending farm subsidies, which have hit the Plains states pretty hard over the past couple of years as the economy stagnated…”

11:00 PM

“...some big calls just now: California goes to the President-elect in a landslide. Hiram Fong didn’t help outgoing President Goldwater any in Hawaii, as the incoming President has won it with just shy of 69% of the vote. Oregon was a solid win by Humphrey as well, as was Washington, home of Vice President-elect Henry Jackson, also known by his nickname, Scoop… now we’re getting word that Humphrey has won Nebraska and its 5 electoral votes… Humphrey’s now at 510 electoral votes, while Goldwater has not yet won a state, and may not tonight…”

[NewYorkExpress]

I'll be excited, if somewhat surprised if Humphrey wins 538-0...