MO-Mason/Dixon: McCaskill +1

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

McCaskill is certainly putting up a far better fight than I originally expected. At the end of the day it is tough to see the votes coming together for any Democratic Senate Candidate to reach 50% in a lockstep R+22 state, but if there is a way to do it, McCaskill appears poised to find it.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

For reference, Akin led McCaskill in every poll from March to August in 2012: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Missouri,_2012#Polling_2

This is incredibly misleading.

Akin led because the GOP unified post primary and then he lost ground after he made the comments about legitimate rape. Most people agree that if he hadn't said that, or if another nominee had won the primary, McCaskill would have lost.

[mds32]

Trump's Approvals are up in the state from 46/50 to 47/45 since the Gravis poll. It's something to watch given that it shows that he isn't hated in the state and could start being called upon to campaign against McCaskill.

[NOVA Green]

Trump's Approvals are up in the state from 46/50 to 47/45 since the Gravis poll. It's something to watch given that it shows that he isn't hated in the state and could start being called upon to campaign against McCaskill.

Was the Trump approval ratings before/after his "Trade War With China" deal?

I suspect this will play very differently throughout regions of MO....

My initial thought is that this will hit a bit poorly for the 'Pub in various parts of rural farming counties in Northern MO in particular (Major swings towards Dukakis during the '88 GE at the time of the farm crisis), and generally in most other heavily Ag producing Counties in MO.

MO does have some significant domestic Mfg producing places where this might improve Trump's slumping numbers, especially in the Whiter Blue Collar places around SLO and KC, but the offsets in the 'Burbs of SLO and KC would likely outweigh any such gains....

Donald Trump is no Dick Gephardt when it comes to politics of economic protectionism for the American Manufacturing sector....

"Donald Trump, I knew Dick Gephardt.... Mr President Dick Gephardt was a friend of mine.... Mr President, you are no Dick Gephardt"    (To paraphrase a line from the '88 GE VP Debate with Bentsen vs Quayle).   *** Insert laugh lines on late night comedy compare/contrast skit ****


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dick_Gephardt

Ok--- been a few decades since I spent time in MO, but the part of SW-OH where I lived in the Early/Mid '90s was more like a smaller Political/Social/Economic/Demographic snapshot of MO-AL, than many other parts of the Country....

Thinking Claire holds this by at least +5% once all the ballots come home in November....

But obviously quite a few Miles between April and November in political time, and Trump's personal FAV ratings don't appear to be transferable in GE environments in '17/'18 from the data observed thus far, outside of potentially Republican Primaries (Even there not sure that is the case despite the Trump "Fear Factor" of threatening to Primary and purge Republican "dissidents" that don't subscribe to his authoritarian and "Imperial Presidential" vision that he directly inherited from one of his key role models Richard Nixon.....)

[HAnnA MArin County]

This gives me hope that the deplorables haven't completely taken over this state. 

[progressive85]

Hawley ain't winning

Hold your load.

lol

[Bidenworth2020]

Wait until she starts airing ads tying her 'Pub opponent to supporting Trump Trade policies against China targeting rural MO areas heavily dependent upon farming where the collapse of international agricultural commodity pricing led farmers to attempt to "export" their way out of the financial hole in the early 2010s, and are now at the front lines of a potential Trade War with China....

I suspect various local aspects on this theme are going to emerge as move towards November 2018.

Even though I tend to be a bit more "Protectionist" on Trade Policies than many, I thought it strange that in Nov 16 there were massive swings towards Trump in Farm Country" within the Grain Belt, considering his economic platform was one where smaller farmers would be inherently hit hard if he were to fulfill his economic policy platform (If you could call it that)....

Chickens will likely come home to roost in November in parts of the US most directly impacted by a reckless style of international trade negotiations....

can you do an analysis on this election, with county breakdowns?

[RJ]

Call it a partisan response but I've always thought Mckaskill would win this race. First midterm for a sitting presidents party never goes well. Couple that with the debacle the current governor finds himself in and I think that many GOP voters stay home on election day. I also think the Democratic voters will be mobilized, something that didn't hap[pen in 2016 to produce that 20 or so loss. I'll concede that it's 6 months until election day and a lot can happen but put me down for a 3-4 point Mckaskill win.

Funny how some long term senators survive(assuming Claire pulls it out of course). There's no way Ohio's Sherrod Brown survives in 2010 or 2014. He might have not had much chance in 2016 for that matter but he managed to be up for reelection in the 2 years this decade he had the best chance. Seems like Max Baucus found the right time to retire before 2014. there have been others and one that comes to mind is poor Mary Landrieu until her luck ran out. Just thought it was interesting how this works...

[Lachi]

McCaskill is certainly putting up a far better fight than I originally expected. At the end of the day it is tough to see the votes coming together for any Democratic Senate Candidate to reach 50% in a lockstep R+22 state, but if there is a way to do it, McCaskill appears poised to find it.

Where the hell did you get the R+22 from??? Plus, you don't need 50% to win.

[NOVA Green]

Wait until she starts airing ads tying her 'Pub opponent to supporting Trump Trade policies against China targeting rural MO areas heavily dependent upon farming where the collapse of international agricultural commodity pricing led farmers to attempt to "export" their way out of the financial hole in the early 2010s, and are now at the front lines of a potential Trade War with China....

I suspect various local aspects on this theme are going to emerge as move towards November 2018.

Even though I tend to be a bit more "Protectionist" on Trade Policies than many, I thought it strange that in Nov 16 there were massive swings towards Trump in Farm Country" within the Grain Belt, considering his economic platform was one where smaller farmers would be inherently hit hard if he were to fulfill his economic policy platform (If you could call it that)....

Chickens will likely come home to roost in November in parts of the US most directly impacted by a reckless style of international trade negotiations....

can you do an analysis on this election, with county breakdowns?

Hmm... sounds like a fun project....

Would definitely look at the Dukakis '88 Counties in Northern MO (Many of them first time flips since FDR passed)...

Deal with MO is that there are so many rural counties heavily dependent upon agricultural commodities that are sold Domestically and to the International market.... so obviously hard to dissect in terms of a hypothetical Trade War with China....

When I was a Young Adult in Ohio back in the Early/Mid '90s that was more Corn/Soybean Country, heavily dependent upon smaller family farmers (Machine Intensive not Labor Intensive Agriculture), with the vast majority of their agricultural output for Grain/ Animal Feed products for Domestic Consumption.

The Global Collapse of agricultural commodity pricing, has led many American "Smaller Family Farmers", to try to export their way out of the crisis over the past 5-10 years...

MO is still definitely a State, where there are a significant % of Rural Voters, that could well swing Hard on this issue....

Not sure if anyone remembers about how Jimmy Carter's "Grain Embargo" after the Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan played in the Great Plains in the 1980 PRES GE....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_grain_embargo_against_the_Soviet_Union

Trump's economic protectionist trade war against China might well have some positive developments  when it comes to a short term repatriation of American Capitol Tax Holiday to the US (Trump's MNCs Tax Cuts), but the reality is this will lead to little or no investment in most parts of the United States...

MO is still essentially screwed as a Midwest State still heavily dependent upon Ag and MFG jobs not really coming back, outside of possibly changes in Metro Kansas City over the past few decades....

Problem is that although Obama in '08 got where MO was at, he wasn't able to deliver enough on the changes by the time it got to '12.

Now we have the 'Pubs in power in Washington, and MO is still screwed, and the DEM SEN has plenty of bullets in the clip on here ammo belt to show exactly how morally bankrupt the current Republican Government in Washington is, and now they are messing with small family farmers?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

McCaskill is certainly putting up a far better fight than I originally expected. At the end of the day it is tough to see the votes coming together for any Democratic Senate Candidate to reach 50% in a lockstep R+22 state, but if there is a way to do it, McCaskill appears poised to find it.

Where the hell did you get the R+22 from??? Plus, you don't need 50% to win.

Hillary +3 Nationally ---> Trump +19 in Missouri

[The Other Castro]

McCaskill is certainly putting up a far better fight than I originally expected. At the end of the day it is tough to see the votes coming together for any Democratic Senate Candidate to reach 50% in a lockstep R+22 state, but if there is a way to do it, McCaskill appears poised to find it.

Where the hell did you get the R+22 from??? Plus, you don't need 50% to win.

Hillary +3 Nationally ---> Trump +19 in Missouri

Typically "R+X" is used in reference to Cook's PVI scores, which for Missouri would be R+9.

[McGovernForPrez]

McCaskill is certainly putting up a far better fight than I originally expected. At the end of the day it is tough to see the votes coming together for any Democratic Senate Candidate to reach 50% in a lockstep R+22 state, but if there is a way to do it, McCaskill appears poised to find it.

Where the hell did you get the R+22 from??? Plus, you don't need 50% to win.

Hillary +3 Nationally ---> Trump +19 in Missouri

Typically "R+X" is used in reference to Cook's PVI scores, which for Missouri would be R+9.

If Dems could win PA-18 which was R+13 we can definitely win MO with an incumbent.