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  MO-Mason/Dixon: McCaskill +1
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Author Topic: MO-Mason/Dixon: McCaskill +1  (Read 4373 times)
The Other Castro
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« on: April 11, 2018, 04:28:20 PM »

Claire McCaskill - 45%
Josh Hawley - 44%

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http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/hawley-mccaskill-in-tight-poll-match-but-hawley-relatively-unknown/article_3248fa57-69c0-58f8-9cc1-194362766e0b.html
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KingSweden
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« Reply #1 on: April 11, 2018, 04:29:07 PM »

Itís gonna be a close one!
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Mondale
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« Reply #2 on: April 11, 2018, 04:31:53 PM »

Hawley ain't winning
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #3 on: April 11, 2018, 04:32:37 PM »

For reference, Akin led McCaskill in every poll from March to August in 2012: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Missouri,_2012#Polling_2
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KingSweden
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« Reply #4 on: April 11, 2018, 04:52:16 PM »


she wonít beat Hawley by that margin, of course, but thatís actually a pretty positive sign
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #5 on: April 11, 2018, 04:58:12 PM »


she wonít beat Hawley by that margin, of course, but thatís actually a pretty positive sign

Yep. By my count, McCaskill has posted (1-2 point) leads in recent-ish PPP, Mason-Dixon, and Gravis polls, while Hawley led by 3 in the most recent Remington survey and by 8 in the trashy Axios poll. So the average is something like 45-44 Hawley, but that's obviously positively skewed.
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We Made PA Blue Again!
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« Reply #6 on: April 11, 2018, 05:18:13 PM »

Yeah, McCaskill should pull this off. Aikin was leading her in the vast majority of the polls in 2012, while Hawley is currently struggling, both financially and in the polls.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #7 on: April 11, 2018, 05:20:31 PM »
« Edited: April 11, 2018, 05:28:48 PM by Devout Centrist »

She's leading in a Mason-Dixon poll?! By god, the GOP really is going to blow it again!
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KingSweden
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« Reply #8 on: April 11, 2018, 05:34:41 PM »


she wonít beat Hawley by that margin, of course, but thatís actually a pretty positive sign

Yep. By my count, McCaskill has posted (1-2 point) leads in recent-ish PPP, Mason-Dixon, and Gravis polls, while Hawley led by 3 in the most recent Remington survey and by 8 in the trashy Axios poll. So the average is something like 45-44 Hawley, but that's obviously positively skewed.

Whatís the average without Axios?
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Free Bird
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« Reply #9 on: April 11, 2018, 05:38:22 PM »

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Free Bird
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« Reply #10 on: April 11, 2018, 05:39:11 PM »


This is a pre-labor poll within the MoE. Hold your load.
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Lean Branson
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« Reply #11 on: April 11, 2018, 05:39:55 PM »

She's leading in a Mason-Dixon poll?! By god, the GOP really is going to blow it again!
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #12 on: April 11, 2018, 05:40:46 PM »


she wonít beat Hawley by that margin, of course, but thatís actually a pretty positive sign

Yep. By my count, McCaskill has posted (1-2 point) leads in recent-ish PPP, Mason-Dixon, and Gravis polls, while Hawley led by 3 in the most recent Remington survey and by 8 in the trashy Axios poll. So the average is something like 45-44 Hawley, but that's obviously positively skewed.

Whatís the average without Axios?

It's 46-44 Hawley with the Axios and 44-44 w/o.
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Blackacre
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« Reply #13 on: April 11, 2018, 06:06:24 PM »

This is a pure, weapons-grade tossup.
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DTC
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« Reply #14 on: April 11, 2018, 06:07:06 PM »

Yeah I have this race as McCaskill + 1 too
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KingSweden
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« Reply #15 on: April 11, 2018, 06:27:45 PM »


she wonít beat Hawley by that margin, of course, but thatís actually a pretty positive sign

Yep. By my count, McCaskill has posted (1-2 point) leads in recent-ish PPP, Mason-Dixon, and Gravis polls, while Hawley led by 3 in the most recent Remington survey and by 8 in the trashy Axios poll. So the average is something like 45-44 Hawley, but that's obviously positively skewed.

Whatís the average without Axios?

It's 46-44 Hawley with the Axios and 44-44 w/o.

Thank you.

This is a pure, weapons-grade tossup.

My new favorite description
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Spiral
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« Reply #16 on: April 11, 2018, 08:05:51 PM »


Yeah, it's been evident for a while. That's especially considering the national climate and our evil rapist governor.
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« Reply #17 on: April 11, 2018, 08:08:29 PM »


Yeah, it's been evident for a while. That's especially considering the national climate and our evil rapist governor.

Why is Missouri such a hotbed for the nation's worst male politicians?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #18 on: April 11, 2018, 08:13:26 PM »

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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #19 on: April 11, 2018, 09:02:49 PM »

tilt R.
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Canis
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« Reply #20 on: April 11, 2018, 09:45:49 PM »



McCaskillís still got plenty of material to tie him to Greitens
Yeah if he thinks this will save him hes got another thing coming Mccaskill is our version of Mcconnell a absolute brutal campaigner
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #21 on: April 11, 2018, 11:05:37 PM »


Honorable move from a great future senator!
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #22 on: April 11, 2018, 11:29:46 PM »


Honorable move from a great future senator!
"""""Honorable""""""
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #23 on: April 12, 2018, 03:42:23 AM »

Wait until she starts airing ads tying her 'Pub opponent to supporting Trump Trade policies against China targeting rural MO areas heavily dependent upon farming where the collapse of international agricultural commodity pricing led farmers to attempt to "export" their way out of the financial hole in the early 2010s, and are now at the front lines of a potential Trade War with China....

I suspect various local aspects on this theme are going to emerge as move towards November 2018.

Even though I tend to be a bit more "Protectionist" on Trade Policies than many, I thought it strange that in Nov 16 there were massive swings towards Trump in Farm Country" within the Grain Belt, considering his economic platform was one where smaller farmers would be inherently hit hard if he were to fulfill his economic policy platform (If you could call it that)....

Chickens will likely come home to roost in November in parts of the US most directly impacted by a reckless style of international trade negotiations....
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Lincoln Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #24 on: April 12, 2018, 04:54:03 AM »

McCaskill is certainly putting up a far better fight than I originally expected. At the end of the day it is tough to see the votes coming together for any Democratic Senate Candidate to reach 50% in a lockstep R+22 state, but if there is a way to do it, McCaskill appears poised to find it.
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