State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[Gass3268]

Damn. It wasn't even close. And that's before tonight's centrist SOTU speech. Trump landslide 2020?

Damn. It wasn't even close. And that's before tonight's centrist SOTU speech. Trump landslide 2020?

This is likely. His approval is following Reagan's and will soon jump up into the high 50s.

How can you guys have such terrible takes? This is the kind of district where you'd expect a bad result given that it's a rapidly Republican trending part of Minnesota. Democrats don't even need to win this seat to win statewide, Ellison lost here by 5 and still won statewide.

I mean id expect a bad result in the GE. But all the statewide D's still won it in 2018 besides Ellison and this is a special election which means Ds should be more energized to vote. This doesn't signify the end of special election turnout for D's but it is in no way a good result

Incorrect. Steve Simon and Julie Blaha couldn't win this seat either. Those were both non-controversial and won by more statewide than Ellison.

Yeah, this was a stupid move by Walz. Luckily there are still more than enough senate districts in the Twin Cities metro to gain a clear majority in 2020.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

hmm... oh boy i dont wanna apologize to limo

Limo will take your concession speech now

Limo's strategy is to continue betting against the Democrat until the broken clock hits the right spot. Remember he predicted that D+42 Pittsburgh seat going to the Republicans two years ago?

I will give him credit for correctly predicting Katie Hill's win in November when most of Atlas were unsure.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Trump won this by 13 points but it’s pretty much solidly Democratic downballot, right? I’ll guess D+9.

Lmao. What happened here?

The Dems winning streak is over. Also, this district isn't really strongly Democratic, Stauber and Wardlow carried it.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Trump won this by 13 points but it’s pretty much solidly Democratic downballot, right? I’ll guess D+9.

Lmao. What happened here?

The Dems winning streak is over. Also, this district isn't really strongly Democratic, Stauber and Wardlow carried it.

I know, but Democrats have won special elections in districts FAR more Republican than this one is, often by a lot.

Yes, but that time period is over now. The pendulum is swinging back to Rs.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Trump won this by 13 points but it’s pretty much solidly Democratic downballot, right? I’ll guess D+9.

Lmao. What happened here?

The Dems winning streak is over. Also, this district isn't really strongly Democratic, Stauber and Wardlow carried it.

I know, but Democrats have won special elections in districts FAR more Republican than this one is, often by a lot.

Yes, but that time period is over now. The pendulum is swinging back to Rs.

I think the mood can somewhat change a little bit after a midterm wave- the enthusiasm gap is probably not what it was a year ago now that Democrats took out their frustration in November and that Republicans are angry about the House going Democratic.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Trump won this by 13 points but it’s pretty much solidly Democratic downballot, right? I’ll guess D+9.

Lmao. What happened here?

The Dems winning streak is over. Also, this district isn't really strongly Democratic, Stauber and Wardlow carried it.

I know, but Democrats have won special elections in districts FAR more Republican than this one is, often by a lot.

Yes, but that time period is over now. The pendulum is swinging back to Rs.

LOL

[Zaybay]

Trump won this by 13 points but it’s pretty much solidly Democratic downballot, right? I’ll guess D+9.

Lmao. What happened here?

The Dems winning streak is over. Also, this district isn't really strongly Democratic, Stauber and Wardlow carried it.

I know, but Democrats have won special elections in districts FAR more Republican than this one is, often by a lot.

Yes, but that time period is over now. The pendulum is swinging back to Rs.

Yeah, its not like the Rs have won any specials in D territory at all this year. None at all.
https://ballotpedia.org/State_legislative_special_elections,_2017
https://ballotpedia.org/State_legislative_special_elections,_2018

[libertpaulian]

Let's see how Dems do in any specials in the South or Southwest before we predict the anti-Trump wave being over.

If Dems do well in specials in the Sunbelt, then we can be assured that the "Upper Midwest Trending R" theory is correct.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Own goal on behalf of Walz, although DFL are still on track to take back the state senate in 2020.

[Kevinstat]

I got the following Facebook PM from the Maine Department of the Secretary of State's Facebook page yesterday (Friday) morning in response to an inquiry about the deadlines in the House District 52 special election announced on Thursday:

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Thursday, Feb. 7, 2019

Special election set to fill District 52 House seat

AUGUSTA – Governor Janet Mills and Secretary of State Matthew Dunlap signed the proclamation today, Feb. 7, 2019, announcing a special election for the Maine House District 52.

The special election is scheduled for Tuesday, April 2, 2019.

This House seat, which covers the City of Bath, was previously held by Rep. Jennifer DeChant of Bath, who resigned her position on Feb. 1, 2019.

Maine’s three political parties, the Democrats, Green Independents and Republicans, will now caucus to choose candidates for the seat. Candidate nominations are due to the Office of the Secretary of State by 5 p.m. on Friday, Feb. 22.

Non-party candidates must circulate petitions and obtain the signatures of at least 50 registered voters in House District 52. The deadline to submit the petitions to the Secretary of State is by 5 p.m. on Friday, Feb. 22, after first having the signatures certified by the applicable municipalities. Write-in candidates must declare their candidacy by 5 p.m. on March 1. Non-party petition forms and write-in candidate declaration forms may be obtained by contacting the Elections Division of the Secretary of State at 207-624-7650.

The candidate who is elected by the voters in District 52 at the April 2 special election will serve out the remainder of Rep. DeChant’s term, through December 2020.

[Kevinstat]

Maine special election dates:

House District 124 (parts of Bangor and Orono):
Vacancy Declared: Thursday, January 3, 2019
Filing Deadline (ballot): 5:00 p.m. on Friday, January 18, 2019  (Two candidates met the deadline, Joseph C. Perry Sr. (D-Bangor) and Thomas M. White (R-Bangor).)
Filing Deadline (write-ins): 5:00 p.m. on Friday, January 25, 2019  (I inquired the week after that deadline and learned that no write-ins declared.  I was half expecting some "protest candidate" to declare as a write-in as news of past controversial social media activity by the Republican candidate broke between the two deadlines.)
Election Date: Tuesday, March 12, 2019 (polls open from ? a.m. to 8:00 p.m.)

House District 52 (Bath):
Vacancy Declared: Thursday, February 7, 2019
Filing Deadline (ballot): 5:00 p.m. on Friday, February 22, 2019
Filing Deadline (write-ins): 5:00 p.m. on Friday, March 1, 2019
Election Date: Tuesday, April 2, 2019 (polls open from ? a.m. to 8:00 p.m.)

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Starting to see signs for the CA 1st Senate special. Lots of Rex Hime signs up in town. My folks got a call from Kevin Kiley last weekend.

Edit: While I was out today, I saw more Rex Hime signs and a lone large banner for Brian Dahle. Surprised I haven’t seen any Kevin Kiley signs in my area given that he’s my assemblyman.

[Badger]

Trump won this by 13 points but it’s pretty much solidly Democratic downballot, right? I’ll guess D+9.

Lmao. What happened here?

The Dems winning streak is over. Also, this district isn't really strongly Democratic, Stauber and Wardlow carried it.

I know, but Democrats have won special elections in districts FAR more Republican than this one is, often by a lot.

Yes, but that time period is over now. The pendulum is swinging back to Rs.

On the basis of narrowly lost race for a Minnesota Senate District which Trump won.

Wulfric, you magnificent bastard. Never change.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Trump won this by 13 points but it’s pretty much solidly Democratic downballot, right? I’ll guess D+9.

Lmao. What happened here?

The Dems winning streak is over. Also, this district isn't really strongly Democratic, Stauber and Wardlow carried it.

I know, but Democrats have won special elections in districts FAR more Republican than this one is, often by a lot.

Yes, but that time period is over now. The pendulum is swinging back to Rs.

Or this was just one isolated special election in a Trump-friendly state senate district.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Special Elections Today!!

GA HD 176 (7 ET): https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/94372/Web02-state.225387/#/
TX HD 125 (8 ET): https://enrpages.sos.state.tx.us/public/feb12_340_state.htm

[bilaps]

These are two safe R/D seats right?

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

These are two safe R/D seats right?

GA is Safe R, TX is Safe D - but Dems need a respectable performance in the GA one after last week's disaster.

[GeorgiaModerate]

These are two safe R/D seats right?

GA is Safe R, TX is Safe D - but Dems need a respectable performance in the GA one after last week's disaster.

How would you define respectable here?

[DINGO Joe]

Looks like about a 70-30 district with low education levels.  Don't expect anything interesting here.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

These are two safe R/D seats right?

GA is Safe R, TX is Safe D - but Dems need a respectable performance in the GA one after last week's disaster.

How would you define respectable here?

Since this is a race of 2 D's and 2 R's that will likely go to a runoff, getting a candidate into the runoff would suffice.

[bilaps]

First results are in, 2 republicans are at 40% each

[bilaps]

With 16/17 precints reporting there will be a runoff in GA between two Republicans who are combined at 85% of the vote.

[Zaybay]

Not surprising. This is White Rural Georgia. If you were expecting anything close to competitive, you came to the wrong state.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

JAMES BURCHETT - REP42.50%1,494
BARBARA GRIFFIN - DEM4.10%144
FRANKLIN PATTEN - REP43.13%1,516
BARBARA SEIDMAN - DEM10.27%361


Another disappointment for the Democratic party.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
State Representative District 125               
Steve Huerta   DEM   279   7.51%   279   7.51%
Ray Lopez   DEM   706   19.00%   706   19.00%
Fred A. Rangel   REP   1,354   36.45%   1,354   36.45%
Coda Rayo-Garza   DEM   660   17.77%   660   17.77%
Arthur "Art" Reyna   DEM   715   19.25%   715   19.25%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      3,714      3,714   
Precincts Reported      1   of   60 Precincts      1.67%