State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Bagel is morphing into LL's sidekick.

[LimoLiberal]

Bagel is morphing into LL's sidekick.

LOL, whenever someone is not 100% DEMOCRATIC BLUE WAVE and SAFE LIKELY D they become my sidekick. 

[Doimper]

Bagel is morphing into LL's sidekick.

LOL, whenever someone is not 100% DEMOCRATIC BLUE WAVE and SAFE LIKELY D they become my sidekick. 

You're trying too hard, Andrew

[IceSpear]

Bagel is morphing into LL's sidekick.

There's a reason Lear, hofoid, and now Bagel adopted the concern trolling strategy. It gets you the most bang for your buck in terms of effectiveness and getting attention for yourself, with the added bonus that the mods have made clear you can do it with impunity. Definitely the best market to invest in if you want to be a long term troll, as opposed to the more risky "be an outright Nazi" market, which may yield short term fortunes but with a grim longterm prognosis.

[UnselfconsciousTeff]

 I endorse Jermaine Tobey for State Representative (D MI) District 05

[smoltchanov]

Bagel is morphing into LL's sidekick.

There's a reason Lear, hofoid, and now Bagel adopted the concern trolling strategy. It gets you the most bang for your buck in terms of effectiveness and getting attention for yourself, with the added bonus that the mods have made clear you can do it with impunity. Definitely the best market to invest in if you want to be a long term troll, as opposed to the more risky "be an outright Nazi" market, which may yield short term fortunes but with a grim longterm prognosis.

One must define first what the trolling is in this situation. For example: i am reasonably sure, that this year will be good for Democrats on all levels, except Senate, where cards are stacked heavily against them. The question is - how good? Do i think, that Democrats will win House in November? Not yet: gun to my head  (today) i would say that Republicans would narrowly hold it (about 219-216). But elections are not today, and i will not make forecast until 1 month before election. Is it "trolling"? I don't think so. IMHO - it's a honest cautious opinion.

[Gass3268]

Whoops, lol:

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1005154699618717697

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Late ballots are not helping Mr. Mendoza. The August 7 SD 32 Runoff will be between Topalian (R) and Delgado (D).

Bob J. Archuleta
(Party Preference: DEM)
10,175   
11.9%
Rudy Bermudez
(Party Preference: DEM)
3,821   
4.5%
Vanessa Delgado
(Party Preference: DEM)
13,915   
16.3%
John Paul Drayer
(Party Preference: DEM)
947   
1.1%
Darren Joseph Gendron
(Party Preference: DEM)
432   
0.5%
Tony Mendoza
(Party Preference: DEM)
12,238   
14.3%
Vivian Romero
(Party Preference: DEM)
3,755   
4.4%
Vicky Santana
(Party Preference: DEM)
5,617   
6.6%
Ali S. Taj
(Party Preference: DEM)
4,934   
5.8%
Ion Sarega
(Party Preference: REP)
7,932   
9.3%
Rita Topalian
(Party Preference: REP)
21,849   
25.5%

[LimoLiberal]

Tomorrow - Wisconsin SD-01 and AD-42

My predictions:
Democrats lose SD-01 47-53
Democrats lose AD-42 44-56

[ON Progressive]

My predictions:
SD-01: 52-47 Dem
AD-42: 54-46 Rep

[Politician]

Tomorrow - Wisconsin SD-01 and AD-42

My predictions:
Democrats lose SD-01 47-53
Democrats lose AD-42 44-56

As fully expected.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

SD-01: Frostman (D) 51%, Jacque (R) 49%
AD-42: Plumer (R) 53%, Lloyd (D) 45%, Rubinstein (I) 2%

[Holmes]

Dems win SD-01 by mid-single digits, lose AD-42 by mid-single digits.

[KingSweden]

My predictions:
SD-01: 52-47 Dem
AD-42: 54-46 Rep

I’ll go with this.

[LimoLiberal]

Posting my analysis here:

AD-42
Groves-Lloyd (D) - 832 likes
Plumer (R) - 693 likes
54-40 Trump, Dallet won by <1

This seat in a mishmash of areas north of Madison is historically Republican. The incumbent won reelection 59-41 in 2016, which isn't too impressive considering how the district voted in the presidential race. As you can see, the facebook enthusiasm is about the same for each candidate, so that metric is a wash. Groves-Lloyd is from Columbia county, which has the largest amount of votes in the district. Coincidentally, Plumer is from the exact same town as GL so Columbia county will be the battleground. Lloyds-Grove needs to keep her margins down in Fond-du-Lac and Dodge and do well in the Dane portions of the district. Plumer received the endorsement of the Wisconsin State Journal, giving him an extra boost.

Scandals: Plumer was cited for hitting his daughter in the 90s, GL deleted tweets saying mean things about Republicans and endorsing the DSA. Should be a wash in that metric.

Money: More outside spending for Plumer (80K to 30K), ads running on TV for him according to Facebook. But GL has outraised Plumer 300K to 185K (Holy sh*t that's a lot for a state legislative special)

Prediction: Plumer wins 54-46
Republican tradition holds strong, and the late newspaper endorsement pushes Plumer to the top.

SD-01
Frostman (D) - 1696
Rep. André Jacque (R) - Doesn't have a campaign facebook page but seems decently popular on his personal facebook in terms of individual post likes and shares
56-38 Trump, Dallet+7

This seat encompasses the Door peninsula and is focused on the counties of Brown, Outagamie, Calumet and Door. Hard to calculate facebook enthusiasm, so I'll just ignore that metric. Jacque represents 1/3 of this senate seat in AD-02, so he needs to rack up votes in the portion Brown and Manitowoc counties that he represents. In 2016 he faced an independent, but in 2012 he only won reelection 58-42 in AD-02. Trump won the assembly seat 59-36 (5 points more republican than the district as a whole), so he needs to stay around the 2012 level as a minimum to keep himself in contention. Frostman is the head of the Door county economic council, so he needs to absolutely crush Jacque in Door county, which I expect he will easily win. The question is the margin, not who wins and loses each county. Frostman also needs to perform well in the portions of Brown and Outagamie counties that are not in AD-02, where Hillary did better than in the district as a whole. Overall, there are several plausible paths to victory for each candidate.

Scandals: None really, though Jacque is considered one of the most conservative members of the assembly.

Fundraising: Frostman is favored in outside spending (150K to 80K) and in fundraising (170K to 90K).

Prediction: Jacque wins 52-48
This seat really liked Trump, and I'll expect voters there are going to be invigorated by the images of Trump winning in diplomacy with South Korea. Frostman seems to be running a good campaign, but it won't be enough.

[Gass3268]

Posting my analysis here:

AD-42
Groves-Lloyd (D) - 832 likes
Plumer (R) - 693 likes
54-40 Trump, Dallet won by <1

This seat in a mishmash of areas north of Madison is historically Republican. The incumbent won reelection 59-41 in 2016, which isn't too impressive considering how the district voted in the presidential race. As you can see, the facebook enthusiasm is about the same for each candidate, so that metric is a wash. Groves-Lloyd is from Columbia county, which has the largest amount of votes in the district. Coincidentally, Plumer is from the exact same town as GL so Columbia county will be the battleground. Lloyds-Grove needs to keep her margins down in Fond-du-Lac and Dodge and do well in the Dane portions of the district. Plumer received the endorsement of the Wisconsin State Journal, giving him an extra boost.

Scandals: Plumer was cited for hitting his daughter in the 90s, GL deleted tweets saying mean things about Republicans and endorsing the DSA. Should be a wash in that metric.

Money: More outside spending for Plumer (80K to 30K), ads running on TV for him according to Facebook. But GL has outraised Plumer 300K to 185K (Holy sh*t that's a lot for a state legislative special)

Prediction: Plumer wins 54-46
Republican tradition holds strong, and the late newspaper endorsement pushes Plumer to the top.

SD-01
Frostman (D) - 1696
Rep. André Jacque (R) - Doesn't have a campaign facebook page but seems decently popular on his personal facebook in terms of individual post likes and shares
56-38 Trump, Dallet+7

This seat encompasses the Door peninsula and is focused on the counties of Brown, Outagamie, Calumet and Door. Hard to calculate facebook enthusiasm, so I'll just ignore that metric. Jacque represents 1/3 of this senate seat in AD-02, so he needs to rack up votes in the portion Brown and Manitowoc counties that he represents. In 2016 he faced an independent, but in 2012 he only won reelection 58-42 in AD-02. Trump won the assembly seat 59-36 (5 points more republican than the district as a whole), so he needs to stay around the 2012 level as a minimum to keep himself in contention. Frostman is the head of the Door county economic council, so he needs to absolutely crush Jacque in Door county, which I expect he will easily win. The question is the margin, not who wins and loses each county. Frostman also needs to perform well in the portions of Brown and Outagamie counties that are not in AD-02, where Hillary did better than in the district as a whole. Overall, there are several plausible paths to victory for each candidate.

Scandals: None really, though Jacque is considered one of the most conservative members of the assembly.

Fundraising: Frostman is favored in outside spending (150K to 80K) and in fundraising (170K to 90K).

Prediction: Jacque wins 52-48
This seat really liked Trump, and I'll expect voters there are going to be invigorated by the images of Trump winning in diplomacy with South Korea. Frostman seems to be running a good campaign, but it won't be enough.

Some of this is nonsense (nobody cares about newspaper endorsements and I really doubt what happened in Korea will get someone who wasn't going to vote today to go out and vote), but for the most part this is pretty good analysis.

I think going with the Dems picking up SD-01 narrowly and losing AD-42 narrowly. AD-42 may one of the most gerrymandered districts in the state.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Welcome to the last major state legislative special elections of the 2017-18 cycle. While there will be one election in CA and one election in AR in August, neither is expected to be competitive. The excitement, for all intents and purposes, ends tonight. Polls will close at 9 ET tonight.

For both elections, results are reported individually by county. Add up results from all counties to get the total result.

-----------------------------

WI Senate 1:

Brown County - https://www.co.brown.wi.us/i_brown/d/county_clerk/election_results/06122018/el45_zero-reports.pdf?t=1526917179

Calumet County - http://www.co.calumet.wi.us/index.aspx?NID=139

Door County - No page available?

Kewaunee County - http://www.co.kewaunee.wi.gov/section.asp?linkid=2231&locid=192

Manitowoc County - http://elections.co.manitowoc.wi.us:8011/nsccalo/eltotals

Outagamie County - http://www.outagamie.org/home/showdocument?id=57713

------------------

WI Assembly 42:

Columbia County - http://www.co.columbia.wi.us/columbiacounty/countyclerk/ElectionInformation/ElectionReturnResults/June12,2018ElectionResults/tabid/3685/Default.aspx (though in another annoyance of covering these elections, you have to manually total up each precinct to get the total - there is no running total for the whole county on the page. An alternative source would be welcome if one can be found.)

Dane County - https://elections.countyofdane.com/electiondetail.aspx?id=97

Dodge County - http://www.co.dodge.wi.gov/home/showdocument?id=28239

Fond Du Lac County - something may appear at http://www.fdlco.wi.gov/departments/departments-a-e/county-clerk/election-results eventually.

Green Lake County - No page available?

Marquette County - http://www.co.marquette.wi.us/home/showdocument?id=11173

[Gass3268]

Groves-Lloyd is from Village Lodi (Plumer is from the Town of Lodi, two different things)

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1006633572248285184

Clinton won the Village of Lodi by about 20 points.

[kph14]

Welcome to the last major state legislative special elections of the 2017-18 cycle. While there will be one election in CA and one election in AR in August, neither is expected to be competitive. The excitement, for all intents and purposes, ends tonight. Polls will close at 9 ET tonight.

For both elections, results are reported individually by county. Add up results from all counties to get the total result.

-----------------------------

WI Senate 1:

Brown County - https://www.co.brown.wi.us/i_brown/d/county_clerk/election_results/06122018/el45_zero-reports.pdf?t=1526917179

Calumet County - http://www.co.calumet.wi.us/index.aspx?NID=139

Door County - No page available?

Kewaunee County - http://www.co.kewaunee.wi.gov/section.asp?linkid=2231&locid=192

Manitowoc County - http://elections.co.manitowoc.wi.us:8011/nsccalo/eltotals

Outagamie County - http://www.outagamie.org/home/showdocument?id=57713

------------------

WI Assembly 42:

Columbia County - http://www.co.columbia.wi.us/columbiacounty/countyclerk/ElectionInformation/ElectionReturnResults/June12,2018ElectionResults/tabid/3685/Default.aspx (though in another annoyance of covering these elections, you have to manually total up each precinct to get the total - there is no running total for the whole county on the page. An alternative source would be welcome if one can be found.)

Dane County - https://elections.countyofdane.com/electiondetail.aspx?id=97

Dodge County - http://www.co.dodge.wi.gov/home/showdocument?id=28239

Fond Du Lac County - something may appear at http://www.fdlco.wi.gov/departments/departments-a-e/county-clerk/election-results eventually.

Green Lake County - No page available?

Marquette County - http://www.co.marquette.wi.us/home/showdocument?id=11173

Door County: http://www.co.door.wi.gov/docview.asp?docid=10563&locid=137

[Gass3268]

Polls are closed! Now we wait.

[Ebsy]

First results from Kewaunee County:

City of Algoma
Jacques (GOP): 180
Frostman (DEM): 337

Couldn't track down precinct results, but it is supposedly a 50/50 town.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Door County: http://www.co.door.wi.gov/docview.asp?docid=10563&locid=137
[/quote]

This county is quite important as a bellwether, Door County has been a very swingy county for the past 5 elections. Bush won it with a decent 8% margin in 2000, then a narrower 3% win in 2004, Obama won it by a landslide of 18% in 2008, in 2012 Obama it by a decent 7% margin and in 2016 Trump flipped Door County, but only won it by a 3%

[Gass3268]

First results from Kewaunee County:

City of Algoma
Jacques (GOP): 180
Frostman (DEM): 337

Couldn't track down precinct results, but it is supposedly a 50/50 town.

Trump won it by .13, Obama won it in 2012.

[Ebsy]

Town of Montpelier

Jacques (GOP): 175
Frostman (DEM): 94

[Ebsy]

2 precincts from Manitowoc county:

Jacques (GOP): 110
Frostman (DEM): 66