State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[GlobeSoc]

This would be quite the upset if the Dem wins 102, even Romney won the seat by 6 points.

R U R A L W A V E

[LimoLiberal]

Tague (R) is gonna win in AD-102

Look at Scoharie county: https://www.google.com/search?q=scoharie+county+election+results&oq=scoharie+county+elec&aqs=chrome.0.69i59j0j69i57j0l3.2206j0j1&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Which is not reported on the NYS Board site.

[junior chįmp]

Tague (R) is gonna win in AD-102

Look at Scoharie county: https://www.google.com/search?q=scoharie+county+election+results&oq=scoharie+county+elec&aqs=chrome.0.69i59j0j69i57j0l3.2206j0j1&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Which is not reported on the NYS Board site.

Will u calm down already

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The swing in AD-10 was 13%, which is in-line with the national average.

[Adam Griffin]

Tague (R) is gonna win in AD-102

Look at Scoharie county: https://www.google.com/search?q=scoharie+county+election+results&oq=scoharie+county+elec&aqs=chrome.0.69i59j0j69i57j0l3.2206j0j1&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Which is not reported on the NYS Board site.

That would make the current result a 400-vote lead for Tague.

Why is that third guy getting almost 30% of the vote?

[Oryxslayer]

AD102 67/126

O'Conner 50.53% 4656

Tague 47.7%  4396

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Even if we do lose 102, it would still be at least a 20-point swing

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Gap getting very small. Rs probably have this:

102nd Assembly District > All Counties (Active Registered Voters: 80,852)   Election Districts Reporting: 69 of 126
Candidate   Party   Graph (by Party)   % (by Party)   Votes (by Party)   Graph (by Candidate)   % (by Candidate)   Votes (by Candidate)
Aidan S. O'Connor, Jr.   DEM   .   43.13 %   4,101   .   50.23 %   4,776
WOR   .   5.10 %   485           
WEP   .   2.00 %   190           
Christopher Tague   REP   .   35.84 %   3,408   .   48.05 %   4,569
CON   .   9.52 %   905           
IND   .   2.22 %   211           
REF      0.47 %   45           
Wesley D. Laraway   THE   .   1.64 %   156   .   1.64 %   156
Blank         0.02 %   2      0.02 %   2
Void         0.02 %   2      0.02 %   2
Write-in         0.03 %   3      0.03 %   3
Total Votes   9,508

[Adam Griffin]

Tague ahead by 600 based on current results (including Schoharie numbers).

[Ebsy]

Nonzero chance that the Schoharie county result is in error.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Nonzero chance that the Schoharie county result is in error.

Yeah, it's best to take anything not yet on the NYS site with a grain of salt.

[Oryxslayer]

Something to note of course is that if 102 is this close, then Similar yet more dem friendly 107 is probably a D flip once we get more numbers.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

AD-10 was the 40th legislative seat the GOP lost under Trump.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Speaking of the 10th. As a LI guy something really werid is going on on the island. It went from serious Trump land in 2016 to resistance territory overnight. Lee Zeldin might seriously lose in November

[Oryxslayer]

AD102  79/126

O'Conner 50.62% 5364

Tague 47.58% 5042

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Vote Dump: 142nd district. R is up 100 votes.

This would be a HOLD for the GOP though, since the current holder won as a Republican.

[Gass3268]

Something to note of course is that if 102 is this close, then Similar yet more dem friendly 107 is probably a D flip once we get more numbers.

102 is also in NY-19...

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Overall, this is turning out to be a fairly decent night for the NY Democrats. Sorry, Limo.

[LimoLiberal]

Doran and Ashby are going to have a very tight race in AD-107. With 37% of the vote in in Rensselaer county, Doran is winning by 1 point in the county: http://www.rensco.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/SP_E_18_2_Summary-report.html

Trump won the portion of the county in AD-107 by 7 points. The district as a whole went to Trump by 4 points. So if she can keep that Rensselaer number up, a very narrow D pickup might be in the cards.

[Gass3268]

Just read that the NYGOP has held AD-10 since 1978. Good to see the up-ballot Democratic strength trickle down.

[Adam Griffin]

Vote Dump: 142nd district. R is up 100 votes.

This would be a HOLD for the GOP though, since the current holder won as a Republican.

The "Republican" is actually a Democrat who will caucus with the Democrats. Mainly, this was a D vs D race ("progressive" versus "labor", if you will). You can thank the dumb fusion system for this confusion.

[Matty]

I didn't really follow politics closely back then, but were republicans successful at flipping state legislature seats before 2010 midterms?

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION:

 37th Senate District > All Counties (Active Registered Voters: 192,318)   Election Districts Reporting: 61 of 313
Candidate   Party   Graph (by Party)   % (by Party)   Votes (by Party)   Graph (by Candidate)   % (by Candidate)   Votes (by Candidate)
Shelley Mayer   DEM   .   56.44 %   4,228   .   60.55 %   4,536
WOR   .   2.95 %   221           
WEP   .   1.16 %   87           
Julie P. Killian   REP   .   32.44 %   2,430   .   38.65 %   2,895
CON   .   5.50 %   412           
REF      0.71 %   53           
Blank         0.71 %   53      0.71 %   53
Void         0.01 %   1      0.01 %   1
Write-in         0.08 %   6      0.08 %   6
Total Votes   7,491

Dems at 6-1 now. They were at 7-4 in these seats coming into tonight.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Vote Dump: 142nd district. R is up 100 votes.

This would be a HOLD for the GOP though, since the current holder won as a Republican.

The "Republican" is actually a Democrat who will caucus with the Democrats. Mainly, this was a D vs D race ("progressive" versus "labor", if you will). You can thank the dumb fusion system for this confusion.

Ok that's a relief!

[Adam Griffin]

I didn't really follow politics closely back then, but were republicans successful at flipping state legislature seats before 2010 midterms?

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