2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2

[smoltchanov]

6 Democratic seats among 9, and 3 Republican. Under normal circumstances i would expect something like R+1 or 2.

[Oryxslayer]

Sabato's new senate map. We seem to be keying in on the nine races identified by McConnell and the Dem Senate Majority Pac as deciding the chamber. Everything else is now likely or safe. I disagree on a few of these ratings, but the 9 seats would still all be in the lean/tossup zone that decides the chamber.

I'm wondering which of the major forecasters is going to be the first to take the bold step of moving NV (UTDH notwithstanding) and AZ to Lean D, where they clearly should be. WV should be moved back to Lean D, Morrisey is a dud of a candidate. TN is solidly a tossup. NJ is Safe D. Those are about my only problems with these rankings at this point, however.

This 100%.

However, I’ve been pondering for a while about whether or not it’s too early to say that MI, OH, WI, and MN-S could all arguably be safe D although it seems hacking on my part. Not only does Brown have large leads, for example, but he’s already passing that magic 50 mark recently. Baldwin also doesn’t seem to be in nearly as much trouble as the GOP wanted her to be a few months ago. Stabenow was never in real trouble (lol Kid Rock). In Smith’s case, I highly doubt Republicans have as much as a chance that a few of them think & besides Klobuchar being on the ballot will likely help Smith anyway.

One of my disagreements with the map is Michigan and Minnesota, but I suspect they are waiting for the primary to push them to safe D. They definitely feel like the seats are on a different level then Ohio and Wisconsin.

[Politician]

Sabato's new senate map. We seem to be keying in on the nine races identified by McConnell and the Dem Senate Majority Pac as deciding the chamber. Everything else is now likely or safe. I disagree on a few of these ratings, but the 9 seats would still all be in the lean/tossup zone that decides the chamber.

FINALLY! They realized all 4 of the Rust Belt state Dems are safe.

[Gass3268]

DKE Unveils Their House Rankings

[Gass3268]

It's almost like they are being more favorable to Republicans just to prevent accusations of bias.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It's almost like they are being more favorable to Republicans just to prevent accusations of bias.

Lol they didn't even rate VA10 as Lean D

[Politician]

It's almost like they are being more favorable to Republicans just to prevent accusations of bias.

Lol they didn't even rate VA10 as Lean D

WV-03 being likely R is funny too.

Also that's a LOT of Likely R seats.

[Oryxslayer]

Remember DK and DKE are basically two seperate groups, but this is not the usual ratings of DKE, a site claiming to be the left-leaning RRH.

Also, can I just say that their hex map..sucks? The point of hex-maps like this is to highlight distortions in population, but the way DKE has forced the districts to look like the states leads to just a bad map. The massive gap between CA and the Mississippi is glaring.

This is the correct way to do a US Hex map - not my own and outdated.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Did you all know Richard Ojeda voted for Drumpf?  

http://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/392945-dem-house-candidate-in-west-virginia-voted-for-trump

We're the big tent party. We can accept differences if it furthers our interests. We aren't a cult.

Are you using the drumpfinator chrome extension?

Yes actually, it still provides me a small laugh every now and then. I sure could use it at times. I didn't know that other people could see it though. Maybe I'll take it off then.

It literally changed the content of Arkansas Yankees quote in your post.

I didn't notice that since every time Trump's name appeared, it changed to "Drumpf." Anyway, I took it off. Crisis solved.

Going back to what's relevant I am pretty much in line with Sabato's Senate ratings (except New Jersey-Safe D) and even Daily Kos' House ratings, maybe like 90% of them. ME-02 sticks out as something that should be a tossup at worst.

[Nyvin]

I think the DKE ratings are the most Republican favored I've seen yet. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think the DKE ratings are the most Republican favored I've seen yet. 

It's amusing that DKE has the most R-leaning ratings while Fox News has the most D-leaning.

[Young Conservative]

I think the DKE ratings are the most Republican favored I've seen yet. 

It's amusing that DKE has the most R-leaning ratings while Fox News has the most D-leaning.

Fox wants to be able to say Democrats underperformed, DKE wants to be able to say Democrats over performed.

[Oryxslayer]

I think the DKE ratings are the most Republican favored I've seen yet. 

It's amusing that DKE has the most R-leaning ratings while Fox News has the most D-leaning.

Fox wants to be able to say Democrats underperformed, DKE wants to be able to say Democrats over performed.

[ON Progressive]

I don't know why people are getting themselves so worked up over ratings in June, honestly.

It's pretty bearish for Dems, but we're still about 4 and a half months away from the big day.

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/meredithk27/status/1010130361781817344

Ojeda and Golden, FFs.

[YE]

Credit where credit is due. Glad to see they're realizing Golden is a great candidate and I didn't expect them to invest in WV-03 (and then be shocked on election night).

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/meredithk27/status/1010130361781817344

Ojeda and Golden, FFs.

That’s great that these two candidates are getting some help, but I’m still waiting on NE-02.

[YE]

https://twitter.com/meredithk27/status/1010130361781817344

Ojeda and Golden, FFs.

That’s great that these two candidates are getting some help, but I’m still waiting on NE-02.

FWIW the CPC has endorsed Kara Eastman so I wouldn't be surprised if the DCCC adds her to the red to blue list soon.

[Young Conservative]

https://twitter.com/meredithk27/status/1010130361781817344

Ojeda and Golden, FFs.

That’s great that these two candidates are getting some help, but I’m still waiting on NE-02.

FWIW the CPC has endorsed Kara Eastman so I wouldn't be surprised if the DCCC adds her to the red to blue list soon.

I would, this endorsement only solidifies that surprise.

[136or142]

https://twitter.com/meredithk27/status/1010130361781817344

Ojeda and Golden, FFs.

That’s great that these two candidates are getting some help, but I’m still waiting on NE-02.

FWIW the CPC has endorsed Kara Eastman so I wouldn't be surprised if the DCCC adds her to the red to blue list soon.

Although they are Canadian, I can understand why the Communist Party of Canada would do that.  (sorry)

[morgieb]

https://twitter.com/meredithk27/status/1010130361781817344

Ojeda and Golden, FFs.

That’s great that these two candidates are getting some help, but I’m still waiting on NE-02.

Yeah something seems really dodgy about NE-02. The rest of the "majority makers" seats either have an unclear Democratic nominee or are long shots. NE-02 is a fair bit more marginal than the long shots.......

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

When do we get the next batch of fundraising numbers? Mid july?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Not sure where to put this, but the GOP tax cut law is quickly losing popularity, again.

Monmouth poll shows the tax cut law's support is down 10 points to 34%

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/6/22/17492468/republican-tax-cut-law-poll

[The Other Castro]

Some early number highlights from the first two months of Q2:

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https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-score/2018/06/25/a-sneak-peek-at-democrats-online-fundraising-263029

[Hindsight was 2020]

Something to look out for in NY-11 primary but there is also a conservative ballot as well that Grimm and Donavan are on so there is a chance that both men could be on the ballot this November