CA-39: Which Democrat advances?

[Greedo punched first]

Which Democrat advances? There hasn't been any primary polling.

Democratic candidates:
Jay Chen (D-Hacienda Heights): Popular in his hometown; has major endorsements like Mark Takano, Judy Chu and Janice Hahn; made runoff in 2012.
Gil Cisneros (D-Newport Beach): Supported by many unions like United Steelworkers; has major endorsements like Grace Napolitano, Seth Moulton, and Pete Aguilar; lives in CA-48.
Sam Jammal (D-La Mirada): Worked in the Obama administration; lives in CA-38.
Phil Janowicz (D-Fullerton): Retired Cal State Fullerton professor.
Ted Rusk (D-Cerritos): Contractor; grew up in Indiana; lives in CA-38.
Cybil Steed (D-Los Angeles): Very little is known about Steed; lives in CA-28.
Andy Thorburn (D-Villa Park): Grew up in New Jersey; Berniecrat endorsed by Our Revolution; lives in CA-45.
Mai-Khanh Tran (D-Fountain Valley): Physician from Fountain Valley; lives in CA-48.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Hopefully Cisneros

[Greedo punched first]

Probably Cisneros or Chen. They have the most establishment support.

[King Lear]

Hopefully Cisneros

[Chief Justice Keef]

Thorburn. Doesn't help Cisneros' case that he lives outside the district

[KingSweden]

Cisneros, in all likelihood, though I’m agnostic about who here I like the best. Don’t know enough about them.

[Jeppe]

Mai Khanh Tran.

[BuckeyeNut]

Hopefully Chen, since, y'know, it looks like he's the best candidate to actually live in the district.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Hopefully Chen, since, y'know, it looks like he's the best candidate to actually live in the district.

He’s the fourth strongest candidate (at best; honestly he’s probably in the mid-tier for the Dems and should really drop out, as should Tran) and would likely lose the run-off.

[Greedo punched first]

Polls show both CA-48 residents behind. Cisneros -3. Tran -9. Cisneros is the strongest Democratic candidate shown in polls. He has the most establishment backing.

[But Muh Username!!!]

Who I want: Mai-Khanh Tran

Who I think: Gil Cisneros

[Greedo punched first]

Two more Democrats are in. Suzi Park Leggett (D-Garden Grove, which is in CA-46, CA-47, and CA-48) and Herbert Lee (D-Rowland Heights, which is in CA-39) are in.

[Greedo punched first]

Camilla Kuo Liou, a 10th Democrat, is in.

[Bidenworth2020]

Why are all these dems joining

[Greedo punched first]

Why are all these dems joining

They just want to run. Notice that many of these candidates (including at least one Republican) are carpetbaggers.

Gil Cisneros (D-Newport Beach, lives in CA-48)
Sam Jammal (D-La Mirada, lives in CA-38)
Suzi Park Leggett (D-Garden Grove, lives in either CA-46, CA-47, or CA-48)
Ted Rusk (D-Cerritos, lives in CA-38)
Andrew Sarega (R-La Mirada, lives in CA-38)
Mai-Khanh Tran (D-Fountain Valley, lives in CA-48)

[Greedo punched first]

Herbert Lee, an 11th Democrat, is in.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Why are all these dems joining

Plants?

[King Lear]

Herbert Lee, an 11th Democrat, is in.

Even if everyone thinks I'm Concern Troling (I will confess to doing that sometimes), you have to agree with me that their are way to many Democrats running here. So many, that I'm getting worried many of them are closet Republicans, trying to split the Democratic vote so two Republicans make the runoff.

[Bidenworth2020]

Herbert Lee, an 11th Democrat, is in.

Even if everyone thinks I'm Concern Troling (I will confess to doing that sometimes), you have to agree with me that their are way to many Democrats running here. So many, that I'm getting worried many of them are closet Republicans, trying to split the Democratic vote so two Republicans make the runoff.

ya, this is scary

on the other hand, if this 'closet republicans' is correct and the NRCC is behind it, that'll be a major scandal

[Virginiá]

It is kind of sh**tty that these people jump in at the last minute, after the field is pretty much already set with every Democrat and their mother.

I wish Democrats (and Republicans?) would just move to scrap the stupid top-two system altogether, instead of waiting for some disaster where they get locked out of 1, 2 or more easily winnable races. Because that is what will happen if the House hangs in the balance - if Democrats got locked out of some easily winnable races and lost the House because of it or barely won it, there is a reasonable chance Democrats are going to suddenly find the energy to refer an initiative to the voters to repeal top-two. If this is at all likely, they might as well do themselves a favor and get on with it now instead of waiting for something to happen. It's not even a good way of doing things and afaik, there is no evidence it has helped at all, at least helped so much that it's worth the downsides. All it has done is give people biennial panic attacks where they stress over losing out on winnable races, or flat out getting locked out of safe/likely D seats. This is even more relevant for Republicans, who could be locked out of all the major statewide races.

[Greedo punched first]

It is kind of sh**tty that these people jump in at the last minute, after the field is pretty much already set with every Democrat and their mother.

I wish Democrats (and Republicans?) would just move to scrap the stupid top-two system altogether, instead of waiting for some disaster where they get locked out of 1, 2 or more easily winnable races. Because that is what will happen if the House hangs in the balance - if Democrats got locked out of some easily winnable races and lost the House because of it or barely won it, there is a reasonable chance Democrats are going to suddenly find the energy to refer an initiative to the voters to repeal top-two. If this is at all likely, they might as well do themselves a favor and get on with it now instead of waiting for something to happen. It's not even a good way of doing things and afaik, there is no evidence it has helped at all, at least helped so much that it's worth the downsides. All it has done is give people biennial panic attacks where they stress over losing out on winnable races, or flat out getting locked out of safe/likely D seats. This is even more relevant for Republicans, who could be locked out of all the major statewide races.

A poll shows that only Republicans oppose the top-two. Someone proposed a top-four jungle primary with RCV. Unless the top-four makes the ballot, the top-two will remain in place.

[YE]

I like the non-partisan nature of the top 2 and think the moaning about it on here is overstated. Are there more than 2 or 3 semi-prominent candidates here? If so, then I'd get more worried (I haven't followed the CA-39 race much). Even if there was an R vs R runoff, I expect it to be an easy pickup in 2020.

[Bidenworth2020]

wait, why would any dem vote for these fake dems lol?

[Greedo punched first]

I like the non-partisan nature of the top 2 and think the moaning about it on here is overstated. Are there more than 2 or 3 semi-prominent candidates here? If so, then I'd get more worried (I haven't followed the CA-39 race much). Even if there was an R vs R runoff, I expect it to be an easy pickup in 2020.

Gil Cisneros and Jay Chen are the most popular Democrats. Young Kim, Bob Huff, and Shawn Nelson are the popular Republicans. Phil Janowicz (D), Steve Vargas (R), Andy Thorburn (D), Sam Jammal (D), Andrew Sarega (R), and Mai-Khanh Tran (D) are mid-level candidates. Camilla Kuo Liou (D), John Cullum (R), Ted Rusk (D), Herbert Lee, Suzie Park Leggett (D), and Cybil Steed (D) are jokes.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I like the non-partisan nature of the top 2 and think the moaning about it on here is overstated. Are there more than 2 or 3 semi-prominent candidates here? If so, then I'd get more worried (I haven't followed the CA-39 race much). Even if there was an R vs R runoff, I expect it to be an easy pickup in 2020.

Gil Cisneros and Jay Chen are the most popular Democrats. Young Kim, Bob Huff, and Shawn Nelson are the popular Republicans. Phil Janowicz (D), Steve Vargas (R), Andy Thorburn (D), Sam Jammal (D), Andrew Sarega (R), and Mai-Khanh Tran (D) are mid-level candidates. Camilla Kuo Liou (D), John Cullum (R), Ted Rusk (D), Herbert Lee, Suzie Park Leggett (D), and Cybil Steed (D) are jokes.

First I've heard of Jay Chen being a top-tier Democrat. I thought Cisneros, Thorburn, & Tran were the front-runners from the look of things (To be fair, I haven't a clue who'll come out on top among any candidate)