Congressional Primary Results Megathread: AR, GA, KY & TX (Runoff) - May 22

[NOVA Green]

WE SHOULD have run someone against Walt Jones, ridiculous...

Because he is uber safe due to the fact he’s an RINO?

I wouldn't necessarily go that far.... perhaps more of an Ancestral Democrat type back in the days guy, who flipped hard on Social Issues towards the Social Conservative Anti-Gay agenda in the '90s, and then a decade or so later was fairly outspoken on the Iraq War from a relatively Isolationist Foreign Policy perspective, but was still one of the few 'Pub House Members to take on his Incumbent Pres on the key Foreign Policy Issue of the times (Iraq War double-down)...

It is still also noteworthy that Walter Jones district is heavily based upon Fort Bragg, which is one of the largest US Military Bases currently located within the US, where there was a major surge of active duty military service members, and family members and dependents during the War in Iraq, as a result of both the "surge" and also a consolidation of Military Basing "Facilities Consolidation" program that happened sometime around '05....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fort_Bragg

Obama won the County where the bulk of Fort Bragg is located in '08, which raised a ton of eyebrows back in the days, considering the historical voting patterns of the County and general voting patterns among active duty service members in recent decades....

Still, Obama in '08 performed exceptionally well in major military base communities, compared to Democratic Presidential performance in these areas since (?)

I don't consider Walter Jones a RINO, but still he's got a pretty good handle on his district, evolves with the times, and even if there were to be a Democratic challenger in an "off-year election", would likely survive because of PRES GE turnout numbers vs Non PRES GE turnout numbers, where a huge of chunk of the voters in his district are either active duty military (Or dependents) and tend to be more transitory than much of the typical midterm electorate in this district....

Any Dem wanting to challenge Walt Jones should save it for '20 when Trump will likely be up for    re-election....

[Tender Branson]

Primary turnout speculations are useless:

AZ-08 had 70% R primary turnout and 30% D.

And Lesko only won by 5 points.

[NOVA Green]

Yeah, NC-09 should probably be considered Lean (or at least Tilt) D now. The state party should use this opportunity to expand the map a bit. Lots of energy on the Left across NC right now.

This is definitely a district that is worthy of deeper precinct level research, since although obviously we have '12-16 precinct numbers available, we are lacking some major data points, especially when examining the topic of Obama '08 > Obama/Romney '12 > Trump/Clinton/ 3rd Party Voters within the district....

1.) It DOES appear to fit the profile of an Upper-Middle Class and Educated district where there were significant swings against Trump compared to '12.

We have seen significant improvements in Democratic numbers in Off-Year/Special Elections in relatively similar communities such as Northern Virginia, Southern Pittsburgh Suburbs, Suburbs of Kansas City, Upper-Income Middle-Aged Professional suburbs in AZ CD-08, and even in the overwhelmingly Republican suburbs of Birmingham and Mobile Alabama....

2.) Although these populations are significant within the district, we can't automatically assume that this same pattern will replicate itself within NC-09 (Although I suspect it will).

3.) The Republican Political Gerrymandering of NC Congressional Districts after '10, means that it is much more difficult to examine the historical voting patterns of various precincts currently located within CD-09....

Can we really understand how the current precincts located within the CD voted in '08 without visibility and understanding of where and why certain precincts might have shifted between '08 and '18 in a wide variety of elections?

4.) Although the overall demographics indicate this might well be a likely Dem flip against the new 'Pub nominee, there are still obviously a significant number of Trump voters in this district, many of whom might well have been Obama '08 and/or Obama '12 voters that flipped to Trump in '16, despite some counter-swings from Obama '08 > Romney '12 > Clinton '16 voters (Hypothetically speaking...).

5.) Haven't done much research into either major party victor in this CD yet and obviously candidates do matter.... still many of these US Senate and US House GE races in '18 are likely shaping up as a referendum on the Party in power....

6.) Without looking at the precinct results (Especially with the absolutely insane NC REP Partisan Gerrymanders), I would imaging that this type of district will likely have areas of insane high population growth in some of the rapidly growing suburbs and exurbs....

Obviously without delving into precinct numbers, makes it much harder to model and forecast these types of CDs....

Ran into similar issues with Surprise, Arizona when trying to model CD-08 numbers, and finally threw my hands in the air and said, well we might be surprised about Surprise Arizona, since it experienced a + 220% Pop Growth Rate between '10 and '18....

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

It is still also noteworthy that Walter Jones district is heavily based upon Fort Bragg, which is one of the largest US Military Bases currently located within the US, where there was a major surge of active duty military service members, and family members and dependents during the War in Iraq, as a result of both the "surge" and also a consolidation of Military Basing "Facilities Consolidation" program that happened sometime around '05....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fort_Bragg

What do you mean "based upon"? Fort Bragg isn't in NC-03 it is in Richard Hudson's NC-08.

[Strudelcutie4427]

It is still also noteworthy that Walter Jones district is heavily based upon Fort Bragg, which is one of the largest US Military Bases currently located within the US, where there was a major surge of active duty military service members, and family members and dependents during the War in Iraq, as a result of both the "surge" and also a consolidation of Military Basing "Facilities Consolidation" program that happened sometime around '05....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fort_Bragg

He might’ve meant camp lejune


What do you mean "based upon"? Fort Bragg isn't in NC-03 it is in Richard Hudson's NC-08.

[TheSaint250]

My predictions for the upcoming primaries:

Idaho

Governor

Republican: TOSSUP; While I want to say Raúl Labrador is in first place just based on higher name recognition, polls have shown that this is still somewhat of a three-way race. It'll most likely come down to Labrador vs. Brad Little.

Democratic: LIKELY A.J. Balukoff; There isn't any polling here that I'm aware of, but Balukoff seems to have an advantage through endorsements and the fact that he was nominated four years ago.


Nebraska

Governor

Republican: SAFE Pete Ricketts

Democratic: SAFE Bob Krist; He's the highest-profile candidate running for the Democratic nomination and seemed to have the backing of the party chair when he was running as an independent.

Senator

Republican: SAFE Deb Fischer

Democratic: SAFE Jane Raybould; Just like with bob Krist, she is the most high-profile candidate here and beats out everyone else with endorsements.


Oregon

Governor

Republican: LEAN Knute Buehler; The only somewhat reliable polling we have from this race is from internals by Sam Carpenter's campaign.  The first showed a tie between Buehler and Carpenter, but the second one month later showed Buehler pulling ahead by double digits as the number of undecideds went down.  In addition, Buehler is the more moderate of the two, and Oregon Republicans have picked somewhat moderate Republicans at various times.

Democratic: SAFE Kate Brown


Pennsylvania

Governor

Republican: LEAN Scott Wagner; Polling isn't great here, but Wagner being a state senator certainly does help.  Also, in the few non-Wagner internal polls we have seen, he is always slightly ahead.

Democratic: SAFE Tom Wolf

Senator

Republican: SAFE Lou Barletta; Everyone from Trump down is supporting him, so it seems like he'll breeze through the primary.

Democratic: SAFE Tom Casey, Jr.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

There were way more ads for R primaries than Ds in Ohio. Don't make too much out of turnout disparities, in open primary states indies will usually flock to the most competitive.

Never even saw a single Kucinich ad, poster, yard sign, etc. And I live pretty close to Cleveland. But R primary stuff was everywhere. From Gibbons and Gonzalez signs on pretty much every corner (Especially in Strongsville) to the endless ads from Taylor and DeWine.

[mds32]

With all votes counted, Balderson has a 775 vote win (lead?) over Lengehan.

Yes and I'd put him at Lean R for the Special in August (we don't know what the environment will be like then) and Tilt R in the general. If he wins in August I'd say Lean R in the general. If he loses the special then it's a tossup.

[GMantis]

It probably doesn't mean anything as it was a two way race, so he would receive any protest vote, but Samuel Ronan, a liberal Democrat challenging Steve Chabot in the Republican primary in the Ohio 1st district has nearly 20% of the vote, in the Indiana 8th district, centrist Republican and resident of Japan, Rachel Covington has nearly 14% in a 3 way race.

Seems to have run in the wrong primary.

[2016]

Indiana did best to pick the Opponent for Donnelly. Isn't Braun an African-American?

[Ohioguy29]

It probably doesn't mean anything as it was a two way race, so he would receive any protest vote, but Samuel Ronan, a liberal Democrat challenging Steve Chabot in the Republican primary in the Ohio 1st district has nearly 20% of the vote, in the Indiana 8th district, centrist Republican and resident of Japan, Rachel Covington has nearly 14% in a 3 way race.

Seems to have run in the wrong primary.

I wouldn't say he was a Democrat, although he did run for DNC chair on a platform of "RIIIIIIIGGED." He's a "both sides are the same" style "progressive," so he decided since Democrats and Republicans aren't any different from each other there's no reason he has to run as a Democrat. I put progressive in quotes because this dude supports a flat tax; he's just terrible. He claims to carry the Bernie mantle but I'm sure Bernie doesn't agree.

He's a really poor fit for the area, a carpetbagger, and his campaign was practically nonexistent. I was expecting him to get much less of the vote.

[Badger]

Indiana did best to pick the Opponent for Donnelly. Isn't Braun an African-American?

Nope. No more so than Mike Pence.

[Badger]

With all votes counted, Balderson has a 775 vote win (lead?) over Lengehan.

Yes and I'd put him at Lean R for the Special in August (we don't know what the environment will be like then) and Tilt R in the general. If he wins in August I'd say Lean R in the general. If he loses the special then it's a tossup.

I'd agree, with the caveat that if O'Conner wins the August special the November race is probably Lean D.

Again, the Republicans dodged a bullet narrowly avoiding letting a wingnut win the primary (for once).

[Suburbia]

Which Indiana Republican won suburban and heavily affluent Hamilton County, IN?

[136or142]

With all votes counted, Balderson has a 775 vote win (lead?) over Lengehan.

Yes and I'd put him at Lean R for the Special in August (we don't know what the environment will be like then) and Tilt R in the general. If he wins in August I'd say Lean R in the general. If he loses the special then it's a tossup.

I'd agree, with the caveat that if O'Conner wins the August special the November race is probably Lean D.

Again, the Republicans dodged a bullet narrowly avoiding letting a wingnut win the primary (for once).

Troy Balderson may be different in tone, but he is every bit as much an extremist.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Which Indiana Republican won suburban and heavily affluent Hamilton County, IN?

Braun by 15.

[OBD]

Oh cool, here comes my home state!

I don't think there are any interesting primaries here in oregon tho

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

The main things I want to see next week:

John Morganelli not nominated (PA-07).
Brad Ashford nominated (NE-02).

Overall, not going to have a large assortment of races of interest.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

With Wulfric having had to retract a call in WV-03, it seems that his calls can no longer be accepted with a level of certainty anymore .

[smoltchanov]

The main things I want to see next week:

John Morganelli not nominated (PA-07).
Brad Ashford nominated (NE-02).

Overall, not going to have a large assortment of races of interest.

Most likely you will get only half of what you wish...

[136or142]

With Wulfric having had to retract a call in WV-03, it seems that his calls can no longer be accepted with a level of certainty anymore .

I predicted 26/37 contested primaries correctly (not including the fringe challengers to incumbents.)

[Badger]

With all votes counted, Balderson has a 775 vote win (lead?) over Lengehan.

Yes and I'd put him at Lean R for the Special in August (we don't know what the environment will be like then) and Tilt R in the general. If he wins in August I'd say Lean R in the general. If he loses the special then it's a tossup.

I'd agree, with the caveat that if O'Conner wins the August special the November race is probably Lean D.

Again, the Republicans dodged a bullet narrowly avoiding letting a wingnut win the primary (for once).

Troy Balderson may be different in tone, but he is every bit as much an extremist.

1. Citation needed. He's not my state senator, but I know him and, to my knowledge he doesn't have the extremist rep folks like Jim Jordan did in the legislature.

2. Honestly, sometimes a different tone is all that's needed to "seem" centrist "enough", especially in the age of Trump.

[smoltchanov]

^ Sure. Thad Cochran, an epitome of "pragmatic moderate conservative", was a "dangerous liberal" for majority in his own state party, and needed strong Black support to stave off extremist McDaniel in 2014......

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The PA primary? It must be my birthday!

[136or142]

With all votes counted, Balderson has a 775 vote win (lead?) over Lengehan.

Yes and I'd put him at Lean R for the Special in August (we don't know what the environment will be like then) and Tilt R in the general. If he wins in August I'd say Lean R in the general. If he loses the special then it's a tossup.

I'd agree, with the caveat that if O'Conner wins the August special the November race is probably Lean D.

Again, the Republicans dodged a bullet narrowly avoiding letting a wingnut win the primary (for once).

Troy Balderson may be different in tone, but he is every bit as much an extremist.

1. Citation needed. He's not my state senator, but I know him and, to my knowledge he doesn't have the extremist rep folks like Jim Jordan did in the legislature.

2. Honestly, sometimes a different tone is all that's needed to "seem" centrist "enough", especially in the age of Trump.

I may have confused Balderson with one of the other candidates who referred to himself as 'the most conservative state legislator' (or something like that) but, Balderson is still a conservative extremist.

From his website:
"A lifelong conservative, Troy believes in protecting all life, our Second Amendment rights, and in getting government out of the way so Ohio’s job creators can grow without the restraints of government red tape. "

And from The American Conservative Union

2016 ratings
90-99% no State Senators
80-89% Balderson is one of 14 State Senators on this, having voted with the ACU position on 11/13 issues.  He has a lifetime score of 89% in the ACU rankings.


Seriously, if the only metric to determine a conservative extremist is whether the person seeks to join the House Freedumb caucus (I don't even know if Balderson would or not) then Republicans have been very effective in normalizing extremism.

For instance, I can't even mention being an idiot Trump supporter like Leneghan as extremism  because virtually all House and Senate Republicans are ultimately supporters of his.