Congressional Primary Results Megathread: AR, GA, KY & TX (Runoff) - May 22

[nerd73]

Swearengin 20,967
Morrisey 18,098

So if WV had a CA-style top two primary....

[136or142]

Pittenger losing in NC-08 is excellent for the Dems. There won't be any incumbent advantage for the GOP in the race.

Harris is also an insane mother er, so GOP voters didn’t completely disappoint

Harris is a 'religious' right extremist, but there are others of those in The U.S House (Jody Hice for one) so, he certainly can't be counted out for that.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Interesting, in raw vote count, the Dems beat the GOP by ONE in NC-09.

[Oryxslayer]

Swearengin 20,967
Morrisey 18,098

So if WV had a CA-style top two primary....

If it did, a bunch of the Protest voters Swearengin got b/c of closed primary probably would vote R.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Are total votes in primaries a good indicator of general election?  cuz Democratic totals in Indiana and Ohio suck.

No, but I honestly think the vote totals for the individual congressional races are.

Not really... they can be very inaccurate. Extreme example, but the democrat in WV-03 got more votes in the primary in 2016 than they did in the general.

[LimoLiberal]

Pittenger losing in NC-08 is excellent for the Dems. There won't be any incumbent advantage for the GOP in the race.

Harris is also an insane mother  we, so GOP voters didn’t completely disappoint

Not so fast. Pittenger can easily make up his 1,200 vote deficit with the remaining precincts in the Mecklenburg and Cumberland counties. Robeson will be the key swing county here.

[136or142]

Further proof that Blankenship is America's Mandela.

Blankenship will advertise using the Mandela Effect to convince everybody he actually won the primary.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Swearengin 20,967
Morrisey 18,098

This doesn't really signify anything.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Are total votes in primaries a good indicator of general election?  cuz Democratic totals in Indiana and Ohio suck.

No, but I honestly think the vote totals for the individual congressional races are.

Not really... they can be very inaccurate. Extreme example, but the democrat in WV-03 got more votes in the primary in 2016 than they did in the general.

True, but remember it is West Virginia. More Dems in the state but their vote Republican.

[136or142]

Swearengin 20,967
Morrisey 18,098

So if WV had a CA-style top two primary....

If it did, a bunch of the Protest voters Swearengin got b/c of closed primary probably would vote R.

You think?  I assumed most Swearengin voters were liberals who were protesting Manchin.  I'd assume most of them will vote for Manchin in the general.

[IceSpear]

Yeah, Blankenship losing the primary is definitely a better outcome for Dems than him winning it. Sure.

Gotta love the coping mechanisms of some of the hacks here, lol.

Personally I didn't really care whether Blankenship won or not, since I think he was underestimated and Jenkins was overestimated. Manchin is in deep trouble regardless of his opponent.

[Oryxslayer]

Are total votes in primaries a good indicator of general election?  cuz Democratic totals in Indiana and Ohio suck.

No, but I honestly think the vote totals for the individual congressional races are.

Not really... they can be very inaccurate. Extreme example, but the democrat in WV-03 got more votes in the primary in 2016 than they did in the general.

Primary votes can be a good data point if you compare to past primaries at comparable times and circumstances - not to GE data. I have repeatedly said OH has a historically R leaning Primary electorate, so how close dems get is a good comparison, not whether they win or not.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Mark Harris
13,117   50.5%
Robert Pittenger*
11,801   45.4
Clarence Goins
1,077   4.1
25,995 votes, 61% reporting (129 of 210 precincts)

* Incumbent

Yeah, I think Pittenger is done. He hasn't budged in the last 10% of precincts that reported.

[136or142]

The total Republican votes in North Carolina 11 (Mark Meadows district) is now nearly 7,000 ahead of the total Democratic votes.  Another hope goes down the drain.

[TheSaint250]

The east-west divide (with Blankenship in the middle) is interesting to see.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

How long until the "BLUE WAVE IS DEAD!" headlines?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Looking at total votes for the Senate Races:

Indiana:
222,140 R
109,185 D

Ohio:
339,732 R
244,706 D

West Virginia:
87,807 D
68,856 R

[LimoLiberal]

--->

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/994021921913106432

[Doimper]

Are total votes in primaries a good indicator of general election?  cuz Democratic totals in Indiana and Ohio suck.

No, but I honestly think the vote totals for the individual congressional races are.

Not really... they can be very inaccurate. Extreme example, but the democrat in WV-03 got more votes in the primary in 2016 than they did in the general.

Primary votes can be a good data point if you compare to past primaries at comparable times and circumstances - not to GE data. I have repeatedly said OH has a historically R leaning Primary electorate, so how close dems get is a good comparison, not whether they win or not.

Unrelated, but will you be including "forced retirements" like Pittenger's on your map?

[IceSpear]

Looking at total votes for the Senate Races:

Indiana:
222,140 R
109,185 D

Ohio:
339,732 R
244,706 D

West Virginia:
87,807 D
68,856 R

inb4 #analysis about how WV is safe D, IN is safe R, and Ohio is lean R.

[ON Progressive]

I can see Pittenger just hanging on. 52 precincts remain. 26 (half) are in Mecklenburg, and 21 are in Robeson. Pittenger leads in e-day vote in both counties.

[Oryxslayer]

The total Republican votes in North Carolina 11 (Mark Meadows district) is now nearly 7,000 ahead of the total Democratic votes.  Another hope goes down the drain.

How many times do we have to say NEVER DO 1 TO 1 PRIMARY VOTE/GENERAL COMPARISONS. ONLY DO THIS PRIMARY/PAST PRIMARY COMPARISONS. If 1 to 1s were true, then dems would sweep all of West Virginia.

unless this was sarcasm...

[Oryxslayer]

Are total votes in primaries a good indicator of general election?  cuz Democratic totals in Indiana and Ohio suck.

No, but I honestly think the vote totals for the individual congressional races are.

Not really... they can be very inaccurate. Extreme example, but the democrat in WV-03 got more votes in the primary in 2016 than they did in the general.

Primary votes can be a good data point if you compare to past primaries at comparable times and circumstances - not to GE data. I have repeatedly said OH has a historically R leaning Primary electorate, so how close dems get is a good comparison, not whether they win or not.

Unrelated, but will you be including "forced retirements" like Pittenger's on your map?

Maybe I'll get a new color. Since the retirement cycle is almost done, I was thinking of replacing the map and putting a different one there.

[Gass3268]

I just realized there is a Kevin Bacon and Tim Kaine running on the Republican side in OH-12, lol!

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Yeah, Blankenship losing the primary is definitely a better outcome for Dems than him winning it. Sure.

Gotta love the coping mechanisms of some of the hacks here, lol.

Personally I didn't really care whether Blankenship won or not, since I think he was underestimated and Jenkins was overestimated. Manchin is in deep trouble regardless of his opponent.

I'm assuming this is directed at me. Pardon me for thinking it's bad for society for either party to be nominating lunatics. Pardon me for being horrified as Trump won primary after primary in 2016 as so many liberals thought it was great because "lol he'll never win".