Congressional Primary Results Megathread: AR, GA, KY & TX (Runoff) - May 22

[Landslide Lyndon]

I asked yesterday about Quigley but I see that Adama Kinzinger has also a sub par showing.
Did he have a notable opponent or it's just the crazies souring on him for being insufficiently pro-Trump?

[BundouYMB]

I asked yesterday about Quigley but I see that Adama Kinzinger has also a sub par showing.
Did he have a notable opponent or it's just the crazies souring on him for being insufficiently pro-Trump?

Crazies hate him for not saluting a picture of Trump twelve times a day or whatever. Kinzinger was #NeverTrump in 2016.

[Adam Griffin]

Ugh, of course Lipinski won. Democrats have learned virtually nothing from 2016.

PPP's poll prior to the election (I believe) suggested that 20% of the Democratic primary electorate would be those who approve of Trump (i.e. GOP voters); among them, they supported Lipinski by 75 points. Among those disapproving of Trump, Newman was ahead by around 20. The bulk of Democrats wanted Lipinski gone: he won only because of GOP crossover votes.

[VPH]

Ugh, of course Lipinski won. Democrats have learned virtually nothing from 2016.

PPP's poll prior to the election (I believe) suggested that 20% of the Democratic primary electorate would be those who approve of Trump (i.e. GOP voters); among them, they supported Lipinski by 75 points. Among those disapproving of Trump, Newman was ahead by around 20. The bulk of Democrats wanted Lipinski gone: he won only because of GOP crossover votes.

I would hesitate to call Trump backers who picked Lipinski all GOP. Downballot Dems ran ahead of the presidential ticket in the parts of the district where Lipinski ran strongest in the primary.

[Oryxslayer]

Finally got the District by district numbers from the primary. Every news site refused to get the total vote numbers in the uncontested primaries, so I had to head to the county offices for them. Sometimes the data was hard to find. A special place in hell exists for Henderson county, who appears to not have updated their site since 2017.

Anyway, as I called earlier, dem historic overpreformance reared its head as usual down south. Dems did win IL-06, but I was correct to call it a tossup. IL-14 was close, but Republican's still got more votes. Make of that what you will.

Relevant primary percents approximately:
IL-06: 54% D - 46% R
IL-12: 56.5% D - 43.5% R
IL-13: 54.5% D - 45.5% R
IL-14: 49% D - 51% R
IL-17: 54% D - 46% R

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Finally got the District by district numbers from the primary. Every news site refused to get the total vote numbers in the uncontested primaries, so I had to head to the county offices for them. Sometimes the data was hard to find. A special place in hell exists for Henderson county, who appears to not have updated their site since 2017.

Anyway, as I called earlier, dem historic overpreformance reared its head as usual down south. Dems did win IL-06, but I was correct to call it a tossup. IL-14 was close, but Republican's still got more votes. Make of that what you will.

Relevant primary percents approximately:
IL-06: 54% D - 46% R
IL-12: 56.5% D - 43.5% R
IL-13: 54.5% D - 45.5% R
IL-14: 49% D - 51% R
IL-17: 54% D - 46% R

Yuge news. Easy 3 D pickups from IL, and 1 more D pickup is possible if dems just do slightly better. Makes up for the only 1 D gain we get from Texas (Hurd's district) and beto losing by 20%.

/s (I'm mocking people who think primaries = GE result)

[Holmes]

That being said, Bost should be worried.

[VPH]

If Ojeda, Baxter, and Scheinberg all win their primaries in West Virginia, we could have 3 strong candidates in West Virginia. Do I think WV-01 and WV-02 are competitive? Not quite, but I think it's valuable for Dems to have credible contenders.

[BlueDogs2020]

If Ojeda, Baxter, and Scheinberg all win their primaries in West Virginia, we could have 3 strong candidates in West Virginia. Do I think WV-01 and WV-02 are competitive? Not quite, but I think it's valuable for Dems to have credible contenders.

I would say it is definitely important..... WV-03 is looking to be really competitive, and WV-02 could become close.

[Maxwell]

If Ojeda, Baxter, and Scheinberg all win their primaries in West Virginia, we could have 3 strong candidates in West Virginia. Do I think WV-01 and WV-02 are competitive? Not quite, but I think it's valuable for Dems to have credible contenders.

WV-02 potentially. Alex Mooney is a weak candidate and a carpetbagger who has consistently under-performed. West Virginia is not a tea party state and Mooney is very much a tea party type of GOPer. 

[Attorney General & LGC Deputy Dwarven Dragon]

Results page: https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/ohio/ (links to the other three states results are clearly indicated on that page)

Poll Closings:

6 ET: Most of IN
7 ET: Rest of IN
7:30 ET: NC, OH, WV

[Sestak]

Results page: https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/ohio/ (links to the other three states results are clearly indicated on that page)

Poll Closings:

6 ET: Most of IN
7 ET: Rest of IN
7:30 ET: NC, OH, WV

Interesting that all the 7:30 states go today. Is there an explicit reason for that?

[Oryxslayer]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/05/08/us/elections/results-ohio-primary-elections.html

All 4 are there on the top bar.

[KingSweden]

Results page: https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/ohio/ (links to the other three states results are clearly indicated on that page)

Poll Closings:

6 ET: Most of IN
7 ET: Rest of IN
7:30 ET: NC, OH, WV

Interesting that all the 7:30 states go today. Is there an explicit reason for that?

Nah just chance I think

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

If Braun does well in Southern Indiana, then Rodkita and Messer calling him a former Democrat helped him enormously.

[Attorney General & LGC Deputy Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTIONS:

District 2
Republican Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Jackie Walorski*
316   79.4%
Mark Summe
82   20.6
398 votes, <1% reporting (2 of 551 precincts)

District 8
Republican Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Larry Bucshon*
439   70.7%
Richard Moss
115   18.5
Rachel Covington
67   10.8
621 votes, 1% reporting (4 of 668 precincts)

[Gass3268]

Braun is definitely the favorite after looking at these early results.

[GMantis]

If Braun does well in Southern Indiana, then Rodkita and Messer calling him a former Democrat helped him enormously.

He's definitely doing very well there. Unfortunately for his opponents, he's also doing very well everywhere but where Messer's district is.

[Skill and Chance]

Braun blowout seemingly confirmed in IN-SEN, although I'd want to see a bit more of Messer's district to be sure.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Braun is definitely the favorite after looking at these early results.

Yep.

[Attorney General & LGC Deputy Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTIONS:

U.S. House District 3
Democratic Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Courtney Tritch
393   66.3%
John Roberson
105   17.7
Tommy Schrader
95   16.0
593 votes, 1% reporting (4 of 625 precincts)

U.S. House District 9
Democratic Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Liz Watson
211   72.8%
Dan Canon
63   21.7
Rob Chatlos
16   5.5
290 votes, 1% reporting (7 of 571 precincts)

[Attorney General & LGC Deputy Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION:

District 9
Republican Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Trey Hollingsworth*
955   78.7%
James Alspach
258   21.3
1,213 votes, 1% reporting (7 of 571 precincts)

[Skill and Chance]

Rokita now clearly overtaking Messer.  He could make a race of it, but I doubt it given how strong Braun is coming in in the south of the state.

[Gass3268]

Rokita now clearly overtaking Messer.  He could make a race of it, but I doubt it given how strong Braun is coming in in the south of the state.

Also if Braun keeps those margins in the Indy suburbs.

[Oryxslayer]

Rokita now clearly overtaking Messer.  He could make a race of it, but I doubt it given how strong Braun is coming in in the south of the state.

Also if Braun keeps those margins in the Indy suburbs.

More the massive ones in the SW around evansville.