Trump approval ratings thread 1.3

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/samstein/status/996038727662276611

“My Dad could totally beat up your Dad!”

[LimoLiberal]

Trump still going up in Gallup. Now at his highest approval (43) since March 5th, 2017.

Approve - 43 (+1)
Disapprove - 52 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup weekly:

Approve 43 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (nc)

Also, Zogby (yes, I know):

Approve 46 (-2)
Disapprove 51 (+2)

Strongly approve 22 (-5)
Strongly disapprove 36 (+1)

[BudgieForce]

Stable Gallup numbers. I wonder if KingSweden is right and their sample was too D-friendly beforehand.

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/996076084876709888

[BudgieForce]

We dont care Limo.

[KingSweden]

While I respect the reportage of Zogby for comprehensiveness, it truly belongs in the garbage can.

[KingSweden]

Whoops never mind those PPP numbers are a month old. Sorry guys!

[Politician]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/996076084876709888

Only Limo would think a 42% approval rating is something for the POTUS to celebrate.

[Stranger in a strange land]

With the KOREA BOUNCE, it's increasingly looking like Trump got played and the summit won't happen. And considering that Trump has shown that no agreement with the U.S. while he's president is worth the paper it's printed on, such a summit would just be a huge waste of time for everyone involved:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/15/politics/north-korea-suspends-south-korea-talks-us-military-drills/index.html
https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/16/politics/north-korea-john-bolton-libya-comments/index.html

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, May 13-15, 1500 adults including 1231 RV

Among all adults:

Approve 39 (-3)
Disapprove 50 (+5)

Strongly approve 23 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 38 (+2)

Among RV:

Approve 44 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (nc)

Strongly approve 28 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 42 (nc)

GCB: D 42 (-2), R 37 (+2).  So once again, YouGov moves in opposite directions for Trump approval and GCB...but they're the opposite opposite directions from last week.

[junior chįmp]

YouGov, May 13-15, 1500 adults including 1231 RV

Among all adults:

Approve 39 (-3)
Disapprove 50 (+5)

Owned in North Korea negotiations C O L L A P S E

[KingSweden]

YouGov is so goddamned bouncy

[pbrower2a]

With the KOREA BOUNCE, it's increasingly looking like Trump got played and the summit won't happen. And considering that Trump has shown that no agreement with the U.S. while he's president is worth the paper it's printed on, such a summit would just be a huge waste of time for everyone involved:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/15/politics/north-korea-suspends-south-korea-talks-us-military-drills/index.html
https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/16/politics/north-korea-john-bolton-libya-comments/index.html

It's all unfortunate. The Republic of Korea and the People's Republic of China agree on a nuclear-free Korean peninsula. Of course it is possible to do the right thing for the wrong reasons, which is better than doing the wrong thing for attractive reasons.

In any event, the optimism that President Trump showed was unwise. This is very different from the situation in which Richard Nixon found a way to deal with Mainland China. Nixon wasn;t going to promise anything until he got his deal. Real diplomats as we had under Nixon are cautious.

[LimoLiberal]

Can't find previous polls, but Trump hits 51% in new Civitas NC poll

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/997088764710260736

[GeorgiaModerate]

Tennessee: Vanderbilt University, April 26-May 8, 1400 RV (change from December)

Approve 53 (+5)
Disapprove 44 (-3)

Favorability: Marsha Blackburn 49/38, Phil Bredesen 67/25

[LimoLiberal]

Tennessee: Vanderbilt University, April 26-May 8, 1400 RV (change from December)

Approve 53 (+5)
Disapprove 44 (-3)

Favorability: Marsha Blackburn 49/38, Phil Bredesen 67/25

Similar to the NC poll in showing statewide increase in approval for the President.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Hmm, poll after poll of catastrophic news for the Dems since the Korea bounce a few week back. Time to face reality.  This is '02 all over again. Even the PA specials were miserable at the lack of swing.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

This is '02 all over again.

Guess what? It isn't.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

This is '02 all over again.

Guess what? It isn't.

Moderately good economy, popular incumbent with his base, foreign policy earthquakes (Korea), divided opposition with no clue how to primary correctly (Kara Eastman fans, I'm looking at you), and voilà. Muh Russia has run its course. 

[pbrower2a]

Hmm, poll after poll of catastrophic news for the Dems since the Korea bounce a few week back. Time to face reality.  This is '02 all over again. Even the PA specials were miserable at the lack of swing.

The catastrophic news for Americans, whatever their Party, is that the nuclear talks are off. Ex-Governors with solid approval or favorability ratings do well in Senate races, so at this point I see a result like that of 2006 as a possibility.

Democrats not winning the Senate might be worth divesting a capricious dictator of his Bad-Boy Toys... Trump handled this badly. I'm not going to make quantitative predictions on the polls, but 'back to normal (Trump approval at 42 or lower except with Rasmussen)' seems more likely than anything else. But that is still a guess.

[Hindsight was 2020]

This is '02 all over again.

Guess what? It isn't.

Moderately good economy, popular incumbent with his base, foreign policy earthquakes (Korea), divided opposition with no clue how to primary correctly (Kara Eastman fans, I'm looking at you), and voilà. Muh Russia has run its course. 

Trump isn't popular are you high? Also how dare you compare North Korea to 9/11

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

This is '02 all over again.

Guess what? It isn't.

Moderately good economy, popular incumbent with his base, foreign policy earthquakes (Korea), divided opposition with no clue how to primary correctly (Kara Eastman fans, I'm looking at you), and voilà. Muh Russia has run its course. 

Trump isn't popular are you high? Also how dare you compare North Korea to 9/11

He is with his base, and they are motivated in ways polls can’t even measure. Didn’t Nate Silver have Hillary at 99% to win? Didn’t they have to uncall states 2016 election night due to the surge ofvotes in the rural areas?

Also, if someone asked me 15 years ago if Korea would ever be in talks, I’d’ve told them it was up there with pigs taking flight. This is the Berlin Wall of our generation.

[Sestak]

This is '02 all over again.

Guess what? It isn't.

Moderately good economy, popular incumbent with his base, foreign policy earthquakes (Korea), divided opposition with no clue how to primary correctly (Kara Eastman fans, I'm looking at you), and voilà. Muh Russia has run its course. 

Trump isn't popular are you high? Also how dare you compare North Korea to 9/11

He is with his base, and they are motivated in ways polls can’t even measure. Didn’t Nate Silver have Hillary at 99% to win? Didn’t they have to uncall states 2016 election night due to the surge ofvotes in the rural areas?

Also, if someone asked me 15 years ago if Korea would ever be in talks, I’d’ve told them it was up there with pigs taking flight. This is the Berlin Wall of our generation.

Hillary was at a little over 60%. Which meant that Trump would only win in the third of outcomes where undecideds broke strongly for him.

WHICH IS EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED.

Also GHWB lost seats in both houses in the midterms and lost reelection after Berlin.

[pbrower2a]

This is '02 all over again.

Guess what? It isn't.

Moderately good economy, popular incumbent with his base, foreign policy earthquakes (Korea), divided opposition with no clue how to primary correctly (Kara Eastman fans, I'm looking at you), and voilà. Muh Russia has run its course.  

Trump isn't popular are you high? Also how dare you compare North Korea to 9/11

He is with his base, and they are motivated in ways polls can’t even measure. Didn’t Nate Silver have Hillary at 99% to win? Didn’t they have to uncall states 2016 election night due to the surge of votes in the rural areas?

Also, if someone asked me 15 years ago if Korea would ever be in talks, I’d’ve told them it was up there with pigs taking flight. This is the Berlin Wall of our generation.

Heck, Goldwater and McGovern were strong -- even freakishly strong -- with their bases of support. But neither got much else because the Other Side could depict them as dangerous radicals. They lost badly. Fanatical support by any one person means at most one vote.

There was no 'uncalling' of states in 2016, at least on MSNBC. MSNBC was slow to call states that many Democrats expected to go easily to Hillary Clinton... and it called states late, whichever way they went.

It would be unfair to make comparisons between Trump and Carter because Carter is a good, decent, rational  person for which things just didn't go as expected and for which voters held him to account. Americans are extremely hostile to corruption when it involves Congress and Governors, so I expect much the same with this President. Add to this that we have no sign of loving despotic or dictatorial Presidents.

Corrupt, extreme, and despotic. If that isn't cause for losing, then what is?

Disapproval ratings for this President suggest that no matter how strongly his supporters adulate him, far more who have given up on him, and I do not those who disapprove of him to vote for him.