Trump approval ratings thread 1.3

[junior chįmp]

What!? Add 9 points? Really?

"You can't con people, at least not for long. You can create excitement, you can do wonderful promotion and get all kinds of press, and you can throw in a little hyperbole. But if you don't deliver the goods, people will eventually catch on."

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/22/trump-2018-midterms-republicans-480417

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Now we know how Trump copes with all these polls showing him underwater. Just add 9

I add 14.  Oh despair : (

[pbrower2a]

My current prediction:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/NlJBL

[Inmate Trump]

My current prediction:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/NlJBL

Just curious, but how close do you think the race in Texas might be?  Or at least, as things stand right now.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Marist, March 19-21, 1271 adults

Approve 40 (-2)
Disapprove 51 (+1)

Strongly approve  22 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 38 (+1)

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Marist, March 19-21, 1271 adults

Approve 40 (-2)
Disapprove 51 (+1)

Strongly approve  22 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 38 (+1)

Yet, the GCB tightens. What’s going on?

[junior chįmp]

Marist, March 19-21, 1271 adults

Approve 40 (-2)
Disapprove 51 (+1)

Strongly approve  22 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 38 (+1)

Yet, the GCB tightens. What’s going on?

The polls don't matter bruh. The fundamentals are so bad, everyone knows the GOP Congress is done this November

[YE]

Marist, March 19-21, 1271 adults

Approve 40 (-2)
Disapprove 51 (+1)

Strongly approve  22 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 38 (+1)

Yet, the GCB tightens. What’s going on?

The polls don't matter bruh. The fundamentals are so bad, everyone knows the GOP Congress is done this November

They're clearly in a rough spot based on everything we have but now is not the time to get cocky. There's still 7 and a half months left. A lot can change, and things can get better or worse towards the GOP still.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Marist, March 19-21, 1271 adults

Approve 40 (-2)
Disapprove 51 (+1)

Strongly approve  22 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 38 (+1)

Yet, the GCB tightens. What’s going on?

Who knows.  We've seen that before where an individual poll will move in opposite directions with Trump approval and the GCB.  It might be more useful to look at the polling averages (I use 538's) over time.

Trump approval today: 40.7/53.2 (-12.5)
One week ago: 40.2/53.9 (-13.7)
One month ago: 40.0/54.4 (-14.4)
Two months ago: 39.2/55.9 (-16.7)

GCB today: 46.2/40.7 (D+5.5)
One week ago: 48.0/39.3 (D+8.7)
One month ago: 47.0/38.8 (D+8.2)
Two months ago: 47.2/39.6 (D+7.6)

From this, it looks like Trump has slowly been improving, while the GCB has been fairly stable until the last week. 

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Marist, March 19-21, 1271 adults

Approve 40 (-2)
Disapprove 51 (+1)

Strongly approve  22 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 38 (+1)

Yet, the GCB tightens. What’s going on?

Anyone's guess, but it's useful to refer to G. Elliott Morris's model:

[junior chįmp]

Marist, March 19-21, 1271 adults

Approve 40 (-2)
Disapprove 51 (+1)

Strongly approve  22 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 38 (+1)

Yet, the GCB tightens. What’s going on?

The polls don't matter bruh. The fundamentals are so bad, everyone knows the GOP Congress is done this November

They're clearly in a rough spot based on everything we have but now is not the time to get cocky. There's still 7 and a half months left. A lot can change, and things can get better or worse towards the GOP still.

Ann knows what's up

https://www.twitter.com/AnnCoulter/status/977200784579485697

[KingSweden]

Marist, March 19-21, 1271 adults

Approve 40 (-2)
Disapprove 51 (+1)

Strongly approve  22 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 38 (+1)

Yet, the GCB tightens. What’s going on?

The polls don't matter bruh. The fundamentals are so bad, everyone knows the GOP Congress is done this November

They're clearly in a rough spot based on everything we have but now is not the time to get cocky. There's still 7 and a half months left. A lot can change, and things can get better or worse towards the GOP still.

Ann knows what's up

https://www.twitter.com/AnnCoulter/status/977200784579485697

The rending of clothes over the omnibus was hilarious

[Landslide Lyndon]

What was in that omnibus bill that made Trumptards lose their collective sh**t?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fox News, March 18-21, 1014 RV (change from last month)

Approve 45 (+2)
Disapprove 52 (-1)

Strongly approve 27 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-1)

An interesting question in this poll (not asked previously):

Which is more important:

Protecting the right of citizens to own guns  40
Protecting citizens from gun violence  53

[Frodo]

What was in that omnibus bill that made Trumptards lose their collective sh**t?

No funding for a wall. 

[pbrower2a]

My current prediction:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/NlJBL

Just curious, but how close do you think the race in Texas might be?  Or at least, as things stand right now.

With the qualification that Democrats will not spend big money  on the expensive Texas media markets because Texas straddles the 400-EV zone, Texas looks to be very close, likely within the margin of error. Two demographic trends hurt Republicans in Texas: first, the rapidly-growing Hispanic electorate (most notably Mexican-Americans, but I would not be surprised to find lots of Puerto Ricans ending up in Texas); and second, the large, educated white vote. Much  of this  is coming from places in which educated white people vote D -- but consider that such states as Arizona, Georgia, and Texas have been hold-outs for this demographic.

I look at the Alabama vote in the Moore-Jones race, and Moore got clobbered among those voters in Alabama. In case you wonder whether it was simply about Roy Moore discrediting himself, then consider that the exit polls gave a 48-48 split in approval ratings for Donald Trump.

Texas used to have a reputation for loud-mouth, uncouth boors below average in formal education. That image is now obsolete.

Still, it is Texas. But the state is beginning to look much like Virginia in the middle of the Double-Zero decade except for having far more Hispanics.       

[Matty]

Is it actually true that trump has a higher approval rating that may, macron, and trudeau? Some pundit today said it in passing and I find it hard to believe.

[BudgieForce]

Is it actually true that trump has a higher approval rating that may, macron, and trudeau? Some pundit today said it in passing and I find it hard to believe.

I'm not sure of Macron or Truedeau, but May has become incredibly unpopular. Although May's handling of the Russian assassinations has caused some improvements, shes still generally more disliked than Trump.

[The Mikado]

Trudeau's latest approval rating was 40 approve, 56 disapprove from Angus Reid.

http://angusreid.org/federal-issues-march2018/

Hope that helps.

[KingSweden]

Is it actually true that trump has a higher approval rating that may, macron, and trudeau? Some pundit today said it in passing and I find it hard to believe.

I don’t, honestly. Democracies across the West are going through a weird funk with their elected leadership. I’ll qualify that by saying that if Trump just kept his mouth shut and his Twitter account turned off he’d probably be in the low 50s, and that all four mentioned leaders have popularity issues for reasons unique to them and the political cultures of their respective countries.

[LimoLiberal]

Trump at 41-51 in Ohio in SUSA, so in line with national numbers

That's an awful number for him.

[Virginiá]

I don’t, honestly. Democracies across the West are going through a weird funk with their elected leadership. I’ll qualify that by saying that if Trump just kept his mouth shut and his Twitter account turned off he’d probably be in the low 50s, and that all four mentioned leaders have popularity issues for reasons unique to them and the political cultures of their respective countries.

I'm not so sure about that anymore. He started his presidency underwater. Not all of that was because of his Twitter account either. Obama was beginning to take on water by this point in his presidency too, and he never sat on Twitter spewing drama like Trump did. I think it's possible that Trump may have been slightly less unpopular without Twitter but the reasons why so many people strongly disapprove of him right now would still exist with or without his Twitter account. At the end of the day, the Russia investigation (and all that comes with it), AH tape, and so on, would still exist.

[KingSweden]

Trump at 41-51 in Ohio in SUSA, so in line with national numbers

That's an awful number for him.

Yeah, considering he won it by 9 points... not a great result

[LimoLiberal]

Gallup 3/25

Approve - 39 (-1)
Disapprove - 55 (-1)

Been extremely steady for the past month.

[Adam Griffin]

Pretty much everybody who disapproves of Trump's twitter presence is either a) a Democrat who'd disapprove of him regardless or b) an absolute Trump supporter who approves of him but loves to offer up something along the lines of "I definitely don't approve of his Twitter use: see, I'm not an absolute Trump supporter!".