Trump approval ratings thread 1.3

[KingSweden]

Adjusting for 4 point pro GOP error the result actually is 37% apprival-56% disapprove and 52% Democrat-39% Republican.

Hey now let’s not play this game. Throw it in the average

[King Lear]

Latest Rassmusen Survey:
Approval: 46%
Disapproval: 53%

[HisGrace]

He's below 40 percent in the RCP average for the first time since January 23. The numbers in the abnormally high Rassmusen poll are slowly coming down.

[forgotten manatee]

Latest Rassmusen Survey:
Approval: 46%
Disapproval: 53%

What a bunch of bullsiht. I love how Rasmussen deflated Obama's numbers, inflates Trumps, and now claims that Trump has a higher approval than Obama did at this point in his presidency. And LimoLiberal and these other doofuses eat it up. Sad!

[HisGrace]

Latest Rassmusen Survey:
Approval: 46%
Disapproval: 53%

What a bunch of bullsiht. I love how Rasmussen deflated Obama's numbers, inflates Trumps, and now claims that Trump has a higher approval than Obama did at this point in his presidency. And LimoLiberal and these other doofuses eat it up. Sad!

Something is obviously going on with their polling since they're so out of step with the rest, but his numbers seem to be normalizing. He's gone from 50 to 49 to 48 and now to 46 in their last 4 tracking polls. I'm always hesitant to accuse major pollsters of bias. They probably just had some weird samples.

[Doimper]

Latest Rassmusen Survey:
Approval: 46%
Disapproval: 53%

What a bunch of bullsiht. I love how Rasmussen deflated Obama's numbers, inflates Trumps, and now claims that Trump has a higher approval than Obama did at this point in his presidency. And LimoLiberal and these other doofuses eat it up. Sad!

Something is obviously going on with their polling since they're so out of step with the rest, but his numbers seem to be normalizing. He's gone from 50 to 49 to 48 and now to 46 in their last 4 tracking polls. I'm always hesitant to accuse major pollsters of bias. They probably just had some weird samples.

Rasmussen has had a consistent R bias for a long, long time.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Latest Rassmusen Survey:
Approval: 46%
Disapproval: 53%

What a bunch of bullsiht. I love how Rasmussen deflated Obama's numbers, inflates Trumps, and now claims that Trump has a higher approval than Obama did at this point in his presidency. And LimoLiberal and these other doofuses eat it up. Sad!

Something is obviously going on with their polling since they're so out of step with the rest, but his numbers seem to be normalizing. He's gone from 50 to 49 to 48 and now to 46 in their last 4 tracking polls. I'm always hesitant to accuse major pollsters of bias. They probably just had some weird samples.

Rasmussen has had a consistent R bias for a long, long time.

Indeed, 538 adjusts their daily tracker by subtracting 5 from the Trump approval number.

[Sorenroy]

For those dunking on me, your industry can burn. My mind model has Trump's approval 49-48, and it's more accurate than this "poll".

[Gass3268]

NBC News/Survey Monkey:

Approve 44% (-1)
Disapprove 55% (+2)

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

NBC News/Survey Monkey:

Approve 44% (-1)
Disapprove 55% (+2)

Mind model tells me GOP Senate Supermajority 2019.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Don't look now but Rasmussen is starting to come back to earth.
http://m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_mar07
Rasmussen:
Approve - 46%
Disapprove - 53%

Trend continues today at 45/54, their worst for Trump since 44/54 on Jan. 31.

[LimoLiberal]

Nobody posting about the new Marist poll?

Approve - 42 (+4)
Disapprove - 50 (-4)

Trump's best net approval in more than a year for Marist.

[KingSweden]

Nobody posting about the new Marist poll?

Approve - 42 (+4)
Disapprove - 50 (-4)

Trump's best net approval in more than a year for Marist.

Should go in the average with everything else, unless your mind model adjusts it to 60-40 Trump.

[junior chįmp]

Nobody posting about the new Marist poll?

Approve - 42 (+4)
Disapprove - 50 (-4)

Trump's best net approval in more than a year for Marist.

We've been hearing this from the start of his presidency and it always goes back down

[GeorgiaModerate]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker, March 1-7, 21603 adults (19193 RV)

Among all adults:

Approve 42 (-1)
Disapprove 56 (+1)

Strongly approve 22 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-1)

Among RV:

Approve 43 (-1)
Disapprove 56 (+1)

Strongly approve 24 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 46 (nc)

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker, March 1-7, 21603 adults (19193 RV)

Among all adults:

Approve 42 (-1)
Disapprove 56 (+1)

Strongly approve 22 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-1)

Among RV:

Approve 43 (-1)
Disapprove 56 (+1)

Strongly approve 24 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 46 (nc)

Utter devastation. Rain has formed over a certain users house and now their basement is flooded.

[LimoLiberal]

Rasmussen

Approve - 44 (-1)
Disapprove - 54 (nc)

[KingSweden]

Rasmussen

Approve - 44 (-1)
Disapprove - 54 (nc)

Devastating collapse. My mind model now projects I will merely be able to seduce Genesis Rodriguez, rather than Kate Upton

[LimoLiberal]

Something I missed yesterday - Marist has Trump 44-49 with RV. That's tremendously good for him, considering his low approvals so far.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Rasmussen

Approve - 44 (-1)
Disapprove - 54 (nc)

Devastating collapse. My mind model now projects I will merely be able to seduce Genesis Rodriguez, rather than Kate Upton

This week is a counterexample to the theory advanced a while back that Ras tends to release more Trump-favorable results later in the week.  He's gradually declined throughout the week.

[NOVA Green]

FWIW...

Morning Consultant released within the past few days job approval/disapproval numbers for Trump for all 50 states for 2/18 compared against 1/17.

https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/

Apologies if someone already posted this, as I just checked back into this thread for the first time in quite a few months, so might have missed someone else posting it.

These numbers in many cases appear to be significantly different from data from other sources for various states, but one of the things that really stood out for me was Trump's relative weakness in the MidWest/ Great Plains / Mountain West.

Make of it what you will, but might be worth throwing into the aggregated data or at least a placeholder for states with no data, or little recent data...

[pbrower2a]

FWIW...

Morning Consultant released within the past few days job approval/disapproval numbers for Trump for all 50 states for 2/18 compared against 1/17.

https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/

Apologies if someone already posted this, as I just checked back into this thread for the first time in quite a few months, so might have missed someone else posting it.

These numbers in many cases appear to be significantly different from data from other sources for various states, but one of the things that really stood out for me was Trump's relative weakness in the MidWest/ Great Plains / Mountain West.

Make of it what you will, but might be worth throwing into the aggregated data or at least a placeholder for states with no data, or little recent data...

These polls give the rosiest picture of Trump polling except perhaps for Rasmussen. The measure of net approval suggests that President Trump would lose everything that he lost in 2016 -- and Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin if he were up for re-election. The Democrat would win 285 electoral votes against him.  I do not know what filter Morning Consult uses, and it must be more lenient toward Trump than any other pollster.  But even that is no assurance that Trump would win. He would barely lose, but the difference between losing 285-253 is no legally different from losing 375-163 which I predict based upon 100-disapproval. (in that I also project Trump to lose Florida, Arizona, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, and NE-02, with the possibility of even more losses).

One of the telling states is Indiana, where Morning Consult has Trump approval at 49% and disapproval at 46%. 100-disapproval gives the President a ceiling of 54% of the vote in Indiana, and I would giver long odds for the Democratic nominee winning Indiana. But this said, Indiana is typically about R+10, and any Democratic nominee who has lost Indiana by 10% or less since 1900 has won nationwide.  Hillary Clinton lost it by 19%, but that shift suggests that such states as Michigan, Minnesota, Maine, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin were vulnerable to Trump. Obama lost it by a bit over 10% in 2012 and barely won re-election. Kerry lost it by 20%, which should have suggested that trying to win the election by winning Ohio was at best a quixotic enterprise. Gore lost it by 15%, which suggested that lots of states that barely went for Clinton (especially New Hampshire and Ohio) were vulnerable -- and he lost those.    Bill Clinton lost it by 6% or so twice -- but won Ohio.

Indiana was one of the worst states for Kennedy in 1960, and Kennedy barely won nationally while losing Indiana by 11%. Carter lost it by 8% in 1976 and got elected. Truman barely lost Indiana (about 1%, and that is the third-best performance by a Democrat in Indiana in Indiana in eighty years)... anyone who put up the headline "Dewey Wins!" should have seen otherwise base3d on Indiana alone.

Here is a good guide to the 2020 election: look at the margin of victory for the Republican nominee in Indiana, and you will see this early because Indiana is one of the first two states to close all polling places. If it is 10% or so less, then the Democratic nominee wins. If the Democratic nominee wins it, then  the Democratic nominee at the least has a regional landslide (Obama 2008) or even an overpowering landslide (LBJ in 1964 or FDR in 1932 and 1936). Indiana has some relevance to how neighboring states Ohio and Michigan vote.

[KingSweden]

^^

Interesting stat on Indiana!

[NOVA Green]

FWIW...

Morning Consultant released within the past few days job approval/disapproval numbers for Trump for all 50 states for 2/18 compared against 1/17.

https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/

Apologies if someone already posted this, as I just checked back into this thread for the first time in quite a few months, so might have missed someone else posting it.

These numbers in many cases appear to be significantly different from data from other sources for various states, but one of the things that really stood out for me was Trump's relative weakness in the MidWest/ Great Plains / Mountain West.

Make of it what you will, but might be worth throwing into the aggregated data or at least a placeholder for states with no data, or little recent data...

These polls give the rosiest picture of Trump polling except perhaps for Rasmussen. The measure of net approval suggests that President Trump would lose everything that he lost in 2016 -- and Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin if he were up for re-election. The Democrat would win 285 electoral votes against him.  I do not know what filter Morning Consult uses, and it must be more lenient toward Trump than any other pollster.  But even that is no assurance that Trump would win. He would barely lose, but the difference between losing 285-253 is no legally different from losing 375-163 which I predict based upon 100-disapproval. (in that I also project Trump to lose Florida, Arizona, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, and NE-02, with the possibility of even more losses).

One of the telling states is Indiana, where Morning Consult has Trump approval at 49% and disapproval at 46%. 100-disapproval gives the President a ceiling of 54% of the vote in Indiana, and I would giver long odds for the Democratic nominee winning Indiana. But this said, Indiana is typically about R+10, and any Democratic nominee who has lost Indiana by 10% or less since 1900 has won nationwide.  Hillary Clinton lost it by 19%, but that shift suggests that such states as Michigan, Minnesota, Maine, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin were vulnerable to Trump. Obama lost it by a bit over 10% in 2012 and barely won re-election. Kerry lost it by 20%, which should have suggested that trying to win the election by winning Ohio was at best a quixotic enterprise. Gore lost it by 15%, which suggested that lots of states that barely went for Clinton (especially New Hampshire and Ohio) were vulnerable -- and he lost those.    Bill Clinton lost it by 6% or so twice -- but won Ohio.

Indiana was one of the worst states for Kennedy in 1960, and Kennedy barely won nationally while losing Indiana by 11%. Carter lost it by 8% in 1976 and got elected. Truman barely lost Indiana (about 1%, and that is the third-best performance by a Democrat in Indiana in Indiana in eighty years)... anyone who put up the headline "Dewey Wins!" should have seen otherwise base3d on Indiana alone.

Here is a good guide to the 2020 election: look at the margin of victory for the Republican nominee in Indiana, and you will see this early because Indiana is one of the first two states to close all polling places. If it is 10% or so less, then the Democratic nominee wins. If the Democratic nominee wins it, then  the Democratic nominee at the least has a regional landslide (Obama 2008) or even an overpowering landslide (LBJ in 1964 or FDR in 1932 and 1936). Indiana has some relevance to how neighboring states Ohio and Michigan vote.

That was my suspicion when scrolling through the statewide numbers from Morning Consultant....    (Bolded Quote above)

Honestly, one of the main reasons I first started checking in on this thread, which is a bit outside my normal realm of threads dealing with demographics, precinct level results, etc.... was because of your National Maps by approvals and detailed explanations as to the criteria for inclusion/exclusion, not to mention many of the fine contributions from other regular posters that "crowd-source" statewide polls for collective analysis and discussion.

Indiana really stood out for me, even on the Morning Consultant Poll as a potential indicator that Trump's approvals are dropping hard within the Industrial Midwest, which in theory is a place where his image of being an economic protectionist and "Anti-War" Republican, combined with American Nativism attitudes regarding immigration should be a somewhat decent fit at the Presidential Level.

What IS a bit bizarre is how close the IN/OH net approval numbers are in '18, according to Morning Consultant.

Additionally, my reference to the Great Plains States, appears to indicate a massive collapse of Trump support in the Grain Belt running down from ND to OK, not to mention MT ( 1/2 Grain Belt 1/2 Mountain West)....

Why would that be case?

Obviously approvals/disapprovals of Presidential job performance won't necessarily translate into 2020 GE Pres numbers, regardless of the Democratic nominee against Trump, but one must wonder about what is going on in rural areas of ND/SD/KS/NE/OK/MT, since generally the "Urban Metro population" in these States is somewhat lacking outside of a few places like the Kansas suburbs of KC, Metro Omaha/Lincoln in NE, Tulsa/OKC in OK....

The only explanation for these massive swings would have to be a collapse in Trump approval ratings among small town and rural voters in many of these places.

I do wonder to what extent the suffering family farmers of America, facing the worse collapse in Global Commodity Prices since the late 1980s for many agricultural products might be starting to swing against the Trump brand which early on talked a lot about Farmers, but really hasn't done crap other than alienate trading partners when the ag sector started to increasingly shift towards exporting ag commodities for dimes on the dollar about 5 years ago.

Not trying to do a Casey Jones style train derailment of the thread, but look at the Morning Consultant net only 6-9% approvals in ND/SD/KS/NE/MT and tell me something isn't happening there even in the "Rosy Trump" scenario....   

Keep at it Pbrower2a and would be interesting to see two different sets of maps (Rosy Trump approvals vs Crappy Trump approvals).....

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

The reason Morning Consult approvals look meh for Trump in the rust belt white states and good for Trump in more diverse states is Consult very often underpolls miniorities.